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Chris Waller |
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49817 |
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So Waller has 84 winners in NSW, and 36 in other states..??, that seems an awful lot outside of NSW for someone who only trains in Syd and has only had the melb yard for a year...
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Panspermia.
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Pazman
Champion Joined: 08 Oct 2008 Status: Offline Points: 11753 |
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Who was this Captain Marvel who saw the talent in Waller?
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Rhino
Champion Joined: 21 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1839 |
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[QUOTE=Fiddlesticks]So Waller has 84 winners in NSW, and 36 in other states..??, that seems an awful lot outside of NSW for someone who only trains in Syd and has only had the melb yard for a year
84 in Sydney Metro 20 in Provincial / Country NSW 17 Interstate 121 in total |
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Lordy
Champion Joined: 22 May 2010 Location: Sunshine State Status: Offline Points: 13887 |
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786 starts already this season. Thats an insane number. Strike rate of around 15% is reasonable too considering the numbers.
Would need to run a very efficient operation to maintain quality with that volume. Must have some excellent staff too.
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Gee Gee
Champion Joined: 31 Aug 2009 Status: Offline Points: 8300 |
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If Zoustar was with another stable. I'm pretty certain he would have been well placed and targeted for the rich Autumn 2yo races.
IMO would have won the slipper sold as a $30M+ stallion prospect. The market wants that.
So it can work against him.
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Group 1 Selections
Champion Joined: 11 Sep 2012 Status: Offline Points: 13740 |
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Maybe Zoustar was not mature enough as an early autumn 2yo?? Horses are not machines...
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racinglover
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 4520 |
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Waller's strike rate is invariably brought down by him having a few runners in each race.
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Gee Gee
Champion Joined: 31 Aug 2009 Status: Offline Points: 8300 |
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As a 2yo, he trialled in December, short let up for 11 weeks then trialled twice in March and raced mid April.
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Group 1 Selections
Champion Joined: 11 Sep 2012 Status: Offline Points: 13740 |
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Exactly, so rather then punch the work into him and rush him to have him ready for the most frantic 2yo race in the world, Waller may have decided he would have a more robust horse with Group wins at 2yo and 3yo and against open age horses. To say Zoustar would have won a Golden Slipper without knowing that horses stage of development as a very new colt is foolish let alone to blame it on an extremely efficient stables size. |
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bradjm
Champion Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6175 |
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Obviously waller flogs his horses double the starters for similar size stables.
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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I disagree. Having a few runners in each race has invariably increased his strike rate.Weight of numbers increase chances of a winner. Also there are many instances where his runner wouldn't have won if it were not for the presence of his other runners in the race.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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racinglover
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 4520 |
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No doubt there's some logic in that Kavg, but I'd be very surprised if the numbers supported that theory.
Weight of numbers increases the number of winners but I really think it has the opposite effect on strike rate. |
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Flight
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Nambucca Valley Status: Offline Points: 3897 |
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You think Kembla maiden prize money will cover the training fees? How many horses do they syndicate every year? A dozen? They have been around since 1994 so that is a lot of horses that have passed through that yard providing they made it that far. Yet their Hall of Fame is not crammed with two year old winners. A few did win good races as juveniles however the majority paid their way as older horses. Driefontein Sebring Theseo Danglissa Whittington Kingsgate Bank Robber Stoway Squamosa Flaming Ariante Kinnersley Dashing Scene Raceway Primrose Sands Four of those were decent two year olds. Winning a mid week two year old race does not add that much to the stud value of a filly and certainly does not help out the geldings in later life. So, if you think that she has won that many races with two year olds and connections have firstly recouped the purchase price and then covered all expenses, please list the horses so we all know what you know. Apart from the ones listed above, I really can't think of any. |
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“The probability of a certain set of circumstances coming together in a meaningful (or tragic) way is so low that it simply cannot be considered mere coincidence. ”
― V.C. King |
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Flight
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Nambucca Valley Status: Offline Points: 3897 |
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There is a huge difference between racing two year olds on natural ability and placing them under pressure. Just watch the horses in a race. It is easy to spot the one running on fear being pressured to keep going and the one lopping along with its ears pricked. |
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“The probability of a certain set of circumstances coming together in a meaningful (or tragic) way is so low that it simply cannot be considered mere coincidence. ”
― V.C. King |
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49817 |
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incredible numbers, that's why I keep questioning them, just astronomical how many starters they have...that's not a stable, it's a machine.. |
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Panspermia.
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49817 |
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eg: 4 runners in a race and 1 wins it, that does nothing positive for the strike rate at all period... |
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Panspermia.
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racinglover
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 4520 |
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Yea and also if you have 3-4 runners in a race and run into a red hot favourite that bolts in (from another stable) your strike rate drops a lot more than if you have 1 in the race.
The point being that having more than 1 runner doesn't really increase the chance of winning in some cases, it just the hurts the strike rate. |
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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Twaddle ... your math teacher should be in jail for receiving money under false pretences!
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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They normally buy more than 25 at the sales, and they are clearly tired of paying $3,000 to identify each one, overs to have them in work, so they can watch them trial and eat sausage sandwiches on a sunday, then when they actually run in a race a couple of times a year, if they fluke a win, fork out 15%, and then if they don't stand up to the "treatment" and they threaten the strike rate, they are bundled off to another trainer to race at the Sapphire Coast (nice place to race your horse, if you live there!) ... Simple answer is, Star's owners are so please they have sacked Gai and moved to Waller ... nothing personal, just business ... what else do you need PMfibs ...? You know the old saying, you can fool some of the people some of the time ...
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Ernest
Champion Joined: 19 May 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1781 |
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I don't know about anyone else, but Chris Waller reminds the hell out of me of Robert De Niro's character in Casino |
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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4 runners in a race and 1 wins it is a 25% strike rate in that race. Much higher than his current strike rate. On an 8 race card if he had 4 runners in one race and wins it and 1 runner in each of the other 7 races and wins one of them, then he has had 11 runners for 2 winners which is a strike rate of 18.2% which is still higher than his current strike rate. What I was trying to say is that when he has multiple runners he more often than not sets the pace up suitable for one of his runners to win-that leads to an increased strike rate, no doubt. |
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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DrE, I agree with your stuff re Gai but Waller needs the spotlight put on him too. As for Maths, look at my answer to Fiddle above and try and digest it before making smart a$$ comments. And I'd challenge you to a maths quiz any day.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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bradjm
Champion Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6175 |
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So he races horses against each other, gee thats great for the owners.
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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Maybe you should ask * Mr R H Kirby, Ms J C Sampson, Mr D Wallace, Ms V W Lee, Mr I W Patrick, Mrs S A Hardie, Mr M Townsend, Mr R M Lapointe, Team E & M Racing, Mr R W Bell what their thoughts are on that subject! Anyway, Waller has been running numerous runners in races for a while, and the owners seem to be staying in droves! Pretty sure Denise's clients were aware of it before sacking the old trainer ... maybe they are just sick of having to eat sausages, just to get a glimpse of their horses? * owners of Tamariz (trainer G Waterhouse) ... $2.40 beaten favourite Canterbury Race 7 yesterday ... race won by The Baronet (trainer G Waterhouse) ... $7.50 SP. ... couldn't even get that one right!
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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racinglover
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 4520 |
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I just don't think that's the case though Kavg, although I do see the logic. If what you're saying is true then Waller would have an even poorer strike rate which I do not believe.
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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I think you guys need a lesson in maths and probability.
His strike rate is about 1 winner for every 6 runners. It doesn't matter if he has 6 runners in 6 individual races and gets 1 winner or has 6 runners in the same race and wins it. his strike rate is the same. To make things very simple-in a field of 6 if he has 1 runner and they all have an equal chance of winning then his chance of winning is 1 in 6. If he has 3 runners in a field of 6 with equal chances then he has a 50% chance of winning. If there were 3 races and he had 1 horse in each race and there were 6 horses in each race and each horse in every race had an equal chance of winning (i.e 1 in 6) then the probability of winning 1 race is 0.401 or 40.1%. If that trainer entered his 3 horses in one of the races with 6 starters and again all starters had an equal chance of winning then he has a 50% chance of winning the race. Basic probability shows that the more runners in a race you have the more your overall strike rate will increase. |
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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kav you're on the persian rugs mate. It's you who needs the maths lesson.
Let me break it down for you. Yes, you are right, whether he has 6 horses in 6 races and 1 wins, or 6 horses in the 1 race and 1 wins, his strikerate is the same. But, the key but, is if he has 6 horses in 6 races he has the chance to win 6 times. If he has all 6 horses in the one race, before the race has even begun, the best his strikerate can be by the end of the race is 1 in 6. Whereas with 6 in 6 races he can achieve up to 100%. If you can't understand that then we should all give up and stop debating maths and get back to racing.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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I'm not having a go at you kav, but we are not dealing with dice here.
What happens more often than not in reality is, he has 4 Europlods in a 1600m- 2400m BM90 with a field of 9, and he trains the trifecta, but only 1 winner. Now if there were only enough horses around to run 3 divisions of that race, he would have 3 winners! So, his strike rate is a victim of his own success. Thing is, all 4 of those horses seem to end up winning and placing regularly enough during a prep to keep their owners happy (and apparently make other owners envious! - NB: see Star T'breds)
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Overseer
Champion Joined: 26 Jul 2013 Status: Offline Points: 2225 |
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Fess up bradjm & PMD. Your on the Waterhouse payroll aren't you.
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Watch the commission go on
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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But if he has six horses in the race of a field of 10 he has a six in ten chance of winning it (possibly more). The correct way to judge Waller is by average wins per race, not win aggregate. It's his own problem if he has 6 hoses and one live chance (which is often the case).
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