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Chris Waller |
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Captain Marvel
Champion Joined: 08 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 265 |
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Posted: 16 Aug 2011 at 12:32am |
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Like his speech when he won the Bart Cummings Medal. Straight from the heart. May this be the first of many. Proves that you CAN succeed without drugs.
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princerubiton
Champion Joined: 21 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 11051 |
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stable has fallen off a cliff. Strike rate horrible. Rough trot? First it was Darley who are now back in some form now these guys.
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Quezacotl
Champion Joined: 04 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 14993 |
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Name one stable that doesn't go through transitional periods between carnivals...?
There isn't a stable on earth that just keeps winning week in week out, they are setting a nice team up for the QLD carnival, do they need to be winning now...? placings everywhere yesterday, just the sort of form you'd want to see from a stable prior to a carnival. |
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SPRINTER SACRE - "SIMPLY THE BEST"
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princerubiton
Champion Joined: 21 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 11051 |
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quez waller had 19 winners on saturdays in a rwo last year or something along those lines. Now 5 winners from his last 100. As a punter it pays to identify these cycles and bet accordingly.
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Quezacotl
Champion Joined: 04 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 14993 |
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Hmmmmmm I'm not following, how can you punt according to a stable who are having a run of outs until it's happened..?
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SPRINTER SACRE - "SIMPLY THE BEST"
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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Ok this is a generalisation, however:a. top of the line trainers essentially concentrate on the Melbourne Spring and Sydney Autumn carnivals;
b. the next level of mentors hope and aim for Spring and Autumn success, but concentrate rather more on Adelaide and Brisbane carnivals for their Stakes successes; c. then there's those who recognise that Summer and Winter is their go, with luck the odd Listed success, particularly with the a's and b's largely off the scene except for their average or promising types; and d. so it goes on down the chain. So if you have a horse with the a's and b's, and are racing of-season, you'd want to be absolutely confident that it's just transitional. And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price.
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
Cheers |
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Gee Gee
Champion Joined: 31 Aug 2009 Status: Offline Points: 8300 |
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He is starting up to 3 horses in each race and still finds it hard. back to the drawing board waller. need to place the horses more carefully
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Mostly works in cycles as many have pointed out. Like anyone else he'd want to halt the run of outs soon though before its more than just a cycle.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Winbet
Champion Joined: 11 May 2012 Status: Offline Points: 378 |
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Who don't you bag princerubiton? First Darley now Waller yesterday after the race you bagged Hayes with Pago Rock saying "how can you guys back Pago Rock with Hayes training it" but didn't say much after Manilla Jewell won by 4.3L walking in looking like BC in doing so. |
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Appman
Yearling Joined: 20 Feb 2012 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 193 |
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Ok this is a generalisation, however:a. top of the line trainers essentially concentrate on the Melbourne Spring and Sydney Autumn carnivals;
b.
the next level of mentors hope and aim for Spring and Autumn success,
but concentrate rather more on Adelaide and Brisbane carnivals for their
Stakes successes; c. then there's those who
recognise that Summer and Winter is their go, with luck the odd Listed
success, particularly with the a's and b's largely off the scene except
for their average or promising types; and d. so it goes on down the chain. So
if you have a horse with the a's and b's, and are racing of-season,
you'd want to be absolutely confident that it's just transitional. And
just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter
once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and
trainers, largely irrespective of form or price.
There fitness levels should remain constant, irrespective of Hanging Rock, Rockhampton or the Melbourne Cup. |
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Fit horses win more races.
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Lomond
Champion Joined: 23 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 290 |
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Without drugs? Turn it up.
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study the charts
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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OK, when does the buzzer sound that tells him when the "in form" happy time is starting ? Or ending ? The simple reality is that losing runs and winning streaks are are very difficult to identify positively as being indicative of "form" as opposed to normal statistical variation. And that, you can back in !
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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"There (sic) fitness levels should remain constant, irrespective of Hanging Rock, Rockhampton or the Melbourne Cup" is surely a given Appman. The generalisation I made rather related to seasonal factors and the relative quality/ability of horses aimed at those particular seasons. Which in Waller's case means most of his going around in Sydney over the next few months will either be limited or inexperienced, whereas the lower tier trainers (no disrespect intended) will frequently have their better ones going around because it's easier for them to win in Winter. Or, in six months time, Summer.
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
Cheers |
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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Well try telling that to the millionaire punter I was referring to, someone who started with virtually nothing. A bloke who pioneered viewing every city race as many times as there were starters, watching a different horse and jockey every time, and frequently identifying jockey form irrespective of their finishing positions. Suspect you're here to do little else than argue the toss rather than offering anything particularly positive.
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
Cheers |
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Winbet
Champion Joined: 11 May 2012 Status: Offline Points: 378 |
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Run For Fun you able to mention the punters name your talking about? |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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Mate, couldn't possibly do that.
The most I'll say is that the bloke started off making his living by doing the multiple-watch thing about 15 years ago, and in the first instance was among three or four people selling ratings to the top echelon trainers who simply didn't have the time to do ratings themselves. Trainers were essentially made aware of logical dangers to their own and could advise owners accordingly, and maybe in the odd instance even back a rival. However he was astute enough to realise that money could also be made following in-form jockeys in particular, however the early identification of upward or downward trends (as distinct from just winners or losers) was absolutely critical to maximise his returns.
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
Cheers |
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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Sorry, the above was in response to Winbet's query.
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
Cheers |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Ballydoyle ? |
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reductio ad absurdum
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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Conservatively, the assessed odds of a horse would be 95% unrelated to jockey "form", whatever that might be construed as. However, I can see a way to analyse jockey "form" that doesn't involve video watching, or raw "winners and losers", and will crank up Excel to do it when time allows, who knows, I may change my mind and be thankful for this discussion !
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Appman
Yearling Joined: 20 Feb 2012 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 193 |
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Chris Waller stable horses are not as fit as they were 6 months ago.
Traing is all about motivation, energy levels, enthusiam, hard work and wanting to win. Basically they cut corners and get lazy. People will complain long enough about a poor trainer's strike rate and he will get back to the basic longer hours and harder work of how he got successful before and their horses are fitter and they will start winning. It's called being a human. I have seen it hundreds of times. |
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Fit horses win more races.
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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"Fit horses win more races" is about as helpful as saying non-greys win more races than grey horses. Oh wait, maybe not as helpful, at least we can be sure which ones are greys !
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Blind Faith
Champion Joined: 20 Sep 2011 Status: Offline Points: 1533 |
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Right then, that explains it. Waller's been sleeping in.
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chinaguy
Champion Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Location: China Status: Offline Points: 1442 |
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You know this for a fact, or just sour grapes????
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chinaguy
Champion Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Location: China Status: Offline Points: 1442 |
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He sounds like he is doing alot of tossing himself
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Gee Gee
Champion Joined: 31 Aug 2009 Status: Offline Points: 8300 |
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chinaguy
Champion Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Location: China Status: Offline Points: 1442 |
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So who is using drugs???? I think you really have no idea.
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Crash
Champion Joined: 03 Jun 2008 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 22802 |
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I wonder if it has anything to with the foreman leaving stables.
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Crash
Champion Joined: 03 Jun 2008 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 22802 |
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Anyway he has a winner in today
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Guests
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Um isn't Chris Waller leading the syd training premiership and won at least 1 group 1 and finished very close in multiple others???? Wow the stable has really gone to poo!!!
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