Chris Waller

stable has fallen off a cliff. Strike rate horrible. Rough trot? First it was Darley who are now back in some form now these guys.

quez waller had 19 winners on saturdays in a rwo last year or something along those lines. Now 5 winners from his last 100. As a punter it pays to identify these cycles and bet accordingly.

Ok this is a generalisation, however:a. top of the line trainers essentially concentrate on the Melbourne Spring and Sydney Autumn carnivals;  

Mostly works in cycles as many have pointed out. Like anyone else he'd want to halt the run of outs soon though before its more than just a cycle.

Ok this is a generalisation, however:a. top of the line trainers essentially concentrate on the Melbourne Spring and Sydney Autumn carnivals;  

Appman wrote:   And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price.

max manewer wrote: Appman wrote:   And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price. OK, when does the buzzer sound that tells him when the "in form" happy time is starting ? Or ending ? The simple reality is that losing runs and winning streaks are are very difficult to identify positively as being indicative of "form" as opposed to normal statistical variation. And that, you can back in !

Run For Fun wrote: max manewer wrote: Appman wrote:   And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price. OK, when does the buzzer sound that tells him when the "in form" happy time is starting ? Or ending ? The simple reality is that losing runs and winning streaks are are very difficult to identify positively as being indicative of "form" as opposed to normal statistical variation. And that, you can back in !   Well try telling that to the millionaire punter I was referring to, someone who started with virtually nothing.  A bloke who pioneered viewing every city race as many times as there were starters, watching a different horse and jockey every time, and frequently identifying jockey form irrespective of their finishing positions.   Suspect you're here to do little else than argue the toss rather than offering anything particularly positive.

So it was jockey "form" he was studying in those videos ? Without actually being that person, you wouldn't know what his modus operandi might have been. I suspect your friend got in early with video analysis and reaped the rewards, but studying videos for horse and jockey performance assessment are two very different things. The horse is carrying the jockey, not the other way round. It is vastly easier to assess how well a horse has been performing in a limited number of races than a jockey. And at the end of the day it gets down to how the markets adjust, especially with the army of video watchers around, as to where any advantage lies.

Sorry, the above was in response to Winbet's query.

Conservatively, the assessed odds of a horse would be 95% unrelated to jockey "form", whatever that might be construed as.  However, I can see a way to analyse jockey "form" that doesn't involve video watching, or raw "winners and losers", and will crank up Excel to do it when time allows, who knows, I may change my mind and be thankful for this discussion !

"Fit horses win more races" is about as helpful as saying non-greys win more races than grey horses. Oh wait, maybe not as helpful, at least we can be sure which ones are greys !

Appman wrote: Chris Waller stable horses are not as fit as they were 6 months ago. Traing is all about  motivation, energy levels, enthusiam, hard work and wanting to win. Basically they cut corners and get lazy. People will complain long enough about a poor trainer's strike rate and he will get back to the basic longer hours and harder work of how he got successful before and their horses are fitter and they will start winning. It's called being a human. I have seen it hundreds of times.

Blind Faith wrote: Right then, that explains it. Waller's been sleeping in.

don't blame him

I wonder if it has anything to with the foreman leaving stables.

Um isn't Chris Waller leading the syd training premiership and won at least 1 group 1 and finished very close in multiple others???? Wow the stable has really gone to poo!!!