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Annenkov |
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maxamill
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2011 Location: vic Status: Offline Points: 1336 |
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no i dont , it is how they are interperated a bit like 1st season sires , because as i know alot can happen in the lead up , many many many different scenarios , why lonhro and niello siblngs didnt do any goodbut the original statement was based upon my comment danehill x stormcat was unproven , well i think they are proven and very well proven , thats all, and statistic show this, and yes on the computer
and i reckon old taunto got a pretty good deal with annenkov as his pm suggested , and i actually think annenkov s dame line is better than the danehill line , but that is yet to be seen , and additionally i think swanz dame line is pretty good as well , but like all breeding and people associated with it, have likes and dislikes, have opinions and information why to and why not , , in the end it doesnt really matter, as long as you get a nice foal and you can get it to the races , for as little as possible , and i bet he certainly isnt paying 22 per say to have is mare there either , but thats about the guts of it
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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IMO whoever suggested Dylan Thomas should be certified. And to a lesser extent whoever suggested Widden Valley. Not knocking the sires, just the matches. Amadeus a possibly. But if you're in Vic, want to use a Danehill-line stallion, and hope also to complement the distaff line suggest you first consider Dangerous or Al Samer amongst others. |
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
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v and m
Champion Joined: 21 May 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1119 |
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Progold - While I agree that my suggest of "a son Flying Spur" is a vague suggestion I suggested it because I understand that some people can afford to breed their mares to high priced stallions and don't have budgets but most of us do, some of us are also restricted to location and conformation therefore I suggested "a son flying spur" as a pointer in a direction he might like to look at next time within his budget. I could have suggested Magnus but what would the point of that be if he is beyond budget? and/or having never seen the mare, maybe an unsuitable conformation match
In the end tauto would be the one to make his choice based on above restrictions I do not need to point that out to him and since he has already made his choice this year it seems, any further detailed suggestions can wait until next year
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ZAMINGA
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Progold
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3212 |
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danehill x stormcat was unproven , well i think they are proven and very well proven , thats all, and statistic show this, and yes on the computer i actually think annenkov s dame line is better than the danehill line
Your support in the theory was to use a Danehill/Storm Bird and a Danzig/Storm Cat cross. The "evidence" that this is "proof" of a Danehill/Storm Cat nick seems to be statistics being used incorrectly. Neither Danehill/Storm Bird or Danzig/Storm Cat has to be Danehill/Storm Bird. We also are getting very confused as to what generations stallions are being found in. SWANZ, after all is by Van Nistlerooy who is not Storm Cat in any case, nor is he Storm Bird. Well this is a turn up as it flies in the face of what you have suggested with Danehill/Storm Cat if female lines are now important. There are lots of stallions from similar female lines, but as you have said from Lonhro and Niello, if a mating fails more often than it succeeds, it is poor. I presume the computer doesn't tell us if Annenkov was a good or bad mating. As far as Danehill's female family goes, I would think that it isn't too bad, and probably the pedigree of the stallion as a whole has a bit to say as to why he contributed to his progeny in the way that he did. my suggest of "a son Flying Spur" is a vague suggestion Indeed it was, but it also is based on an assumption that what works with Flying Spur will work with his sons. If I had a Storm Cat mare and had sent her to Flying Spur five times without success (or apparently that could include 2 group 1 winners but it still is a fail), would it still be a good strategy to send her to a son of Flying Spur? If we look at Van Nistelrooy rather than Storm Cat, we see that he carries Northern Dancer through a daughter as well as through Storm Cat. I suspect that duplications of Northern Dancer through a daughter are a different matter in Australia in particular than through his sons. In the case of Van Nistelrooy we also see that his damsire is Halo. With SWANZ, we see that her damsire is Gulch who is not often found in Australia in this position, and the next two damsires are Blue Times, a grandson of Relic, and Sea Bird. Would the presence of any of these "nick" with Danehill? Does it matter, or are they simply irrelevant to a mating?
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tauto
Champion Joined: 14 Jul 2011 Location: EltHAM Status: Offline Points: 1104 |
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i was keen on reward for Effort!!!
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TAUTO/WINFREUX
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maxamill
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2011 Location: vic Status: Offline Points: 1336 |
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understand that pro ,
but the gts of it is, do you think storm cat x danehill is a proven cross yes or no ! i think hell yes, as it was suggested that there was no proof of this , well i think there is , do you ? danehill is a icon of breeding not only in aust but worldwide , i would be simply crazy to question his ability as a stallion let alone query his dams the point was annekov while out of danehill, has a very respectful dam side as well and swanz where not considered greatly commercial, but hers dam isnt that bad either , and considering she sneaked over the 100 k mark in stakes i certainly would suggest she would be a mare to start your first breeding venture with ,
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v and m
Champion Joined: 21 May 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1119 |
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facts is better than no facts
Facts about Flying Spur:
1. From Storm Cat mares has produced 2 for 2 winners
2. From Gulch mares 2 for 2 winners
3. When Halo bloodline was crossed with Flying Spur it produced group 1 winner Sebring, with Halo and Danehill even more
also consider that mares by or with Storm Cat and Halo were not around as much when Flying Spur first went to stud as they are now so for all we know some or even all of Flying Spur's sons can be a good match for those bloodlines, nobody knows that absolutely for sure.
With all pedigree analysing its not something that can be 100% correct, it is a guess and a gamble but most of us try to work with what info we have available to us and when looking at our options we are often faced with stallions that have no record of winners or foals on the ground but are more within our budget than something that is proven. Faced with that people might then have a look at the sire of that stallion to see what bloodlines have worked for him and then compare that with bloodlines found in their mare's. If some or all of those bloodlines have nicked well with that stallion then research might be extended to look at the dam's family but with stallions with opportunity generally producing more offspring than 5 generations of mares, that can be hard to research. It gets even harder when your mare is say mainly Australian bloodlines and your options, being from overseas, have little track record with them.
Whatever you call that kind of analysing it is alot better than a stab in the dark even though most of us would agree that genetics can be just that - a stab in the dark with us hoping to find the light switch.
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ZAMINGA
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Progold
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3212 |
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But are incorrect facts better than no facts?
In all cases above, the "facts" are not actually facts at all. Danzig/Storm Cat, Danehill/Storm Bird and Flying Spur/Storm Cat/Gulch/Halo are not sons of Danehill over sons of Storm Cat. And they can never account for the individual family. Don't forget that there have been lots of cases where apparent "nicks" early in a career have been proven to perform badly overall at the end of careers. Like saying that I have thrown three heads in a row so this coin will continue to show nothing but heads. After ten throws, you may well have three heads and seven tails so the original "fact" is nothing but a fallacy. As to whether Danehill over Storm Cat lines will work, of course it will in certain instances. It will also fail in plenty of cases as well. Remember that both Danehill and Tale Of The Cat stood at Coolmore, so we will undoubtedly see this combination appear through their local breeding. In another thread about nicks, "proof" of their success was tempered by the fact that most of the successful nicks involving Danehill were all in the ownership of Coolmore. Perhaps what was actually being measured was the success of Coolmore's breeding programme (and the old chestnut of best to the best or most expensive to most expensive) rather than what was claimed to be measuring. Does it matter to anyone that the female family of Swanz has not produced a SW from ND line stallions from what I can see? Surely we are missing the female family of the mare totally in this discussion. Yet we repeatedly hear how important it is to duplicate females in pedigrees. It seems like the rules get changed repeatedly to suit whatever outcome people are looking for. And this, my friends, is detrimental to the breed, which is a major concern to me. The mare deserves the best chance of success, and frankly, these strategies to me don't look to be giving her much chance at all. When we can write off our failures as a genetic stab in the dark, it absolves the people from making suggestions from any responsibility. If I said to you to back a horse today at Geelong called Paradian because he is by a Danehill line stallion out of a Woodman line mare - just like Miss Finland - with every cent you own and he gets beaten, do I then just say, sorry I was just guessing. Obviously it is your fault or someone else's for listening to me. By the way, I have no idea how Paradian will go, I know nothing more than a couple of names in a pedigree.
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Progold
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3212 |
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When Halo bloodline was crossed with Flying Spur it produced group 1 winner Sebring,
Sebring is by More Than Ready, a son of Southern Halo who in turn was a son of Halo, out of a Flying Spur mare. More Than Ready x Flying Spur mares have also produced another SW in Hot'n'Ready. Interestingly Flying Spur has produced at least 2 runners from 2 mares who have Halo closer in their pedigree but has not produced a SW. Does this prove that Flying Spur/Halo is no good and that Halo/Flying Spur is a "nick?" Heaven forbid if we are actually measuring MTR/Flying Spur in the cases of the SW anyway. If Flying Spur/Halo is a failure, then to suggest a son of Flying Spur over any mare carrying Halo is reinforcing a cross. It is a problem with using statistics as "proof."
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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This earlier post appears to have been largely ignored in the scheme of things:
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
Cheers |
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Progold
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3212 |
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Runfer, that is true in many ways, but it also depends in a way as to how you assess pedigrees. You are looking for duplications within pedigrees by and large as a way of reinforcing characteristics. While this is one strategy, perhaps there are others, especially if we consider that close inbreeding would not have seemed successful in the family.
As you are no doubt aware, one of the things I have learned from dosages is that certain characteristics can be introduced to a pedigree through different stallions. These do not necessarily have to be introduced via inbreeding. Genetics, as we know, can throw interesting results. If I was to say that certain stallions appear to have an affinity with the family, how would you look at this? Alydar, Real Quiet and Gilded Time are some stallions who have produced SW from the family. Is there something similar that these stallions bring to a mating with this family? I believe that the thoroughbred pedigree has the answers all there for us. It is a matter of looking, and I don't necessarily believe that it is often easy. If we rely on a computer program to tell us an answer as in the case of nicks, we have to be sure that we have asked the right questions.
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maxamill
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2011 Location: vic Status: Offline Points: 1336 |
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i agree with that pro and for that runfer , but the computer can make this task a hell of a lot easier, to what it once did , many many many hrs of work of which can take minutes now ,
there is no magic wands , as heavens forbid we would all have one , i would even buy 2 of them , and as with all breeding let alone racing, there comes risk s and big ones , and as mentioned earlier even the great lonhro and niello ,s mum couldn,t produce anymore champs with 5 additional matings to occy so nothing is a given in this game, i have even paid in the past , breeding analysis from numerous sources for the same mares and they have come back different , so obviously there must be alot of room for interpretation but the original statement of danehill x storm cat , i believe is a good match , or more so, has the potential to be , and yes not all are good , , and yes the match in question are actually not danehill and storm cat, they are sons of , but you have to start somewhere , and with 2 good dams fikra and agathe being swanz and annenkovs dams and 2 good stallion s or for what its worth, 2nd generatioon isnt a bad start, for i am betting not a lot of buck s either most of fikra breeding was to northern dancer type while not stkes winners , there seems to be some handy horses , and i would ask why have they dupilcated with all to n d ,
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tauto
Champion Joined: 14 Jul 2011 Location: EltHAM Status: Offline Points: 1104 |
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So Fikra is the key and look at Red Ransom Domesday sons!!!
Can you suggest any?
The posts are fantastic reading. |
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TAUTO/WINFREUX
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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Not really Tauto. Just suggesting that Shanz's bottom half is as important as her the top, and that Red Ransom arguably meshes with her mother Fikra. And so his sons might possibly represent reasonable matches for Swanz. If it was simple we breeders would all be rolling in coin rather than horse cr*p. |
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
Cheers |
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tauto
Champion Joined: 14 Jul 2011 Location: EltHAM Status: Offline Points: 1104 |
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True yes you are right there would be breeders everywhere!!!
It's the challenge though and using all that info on both sides and looking at whats worked.It can do your head in but certainly makes the time tick by thats for sure. Its been sensational feedback l'm glad l was introduced to this site.I hardly watch tv these days!!! |
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TAUTO/WINFREUX
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maxamill
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2011 Location: vic Status: Offline Points: 1336 |
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maxamill
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2011 Location: vic Status: Offline Points: 1336 |
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tauto
Champion Joined: 14 Jul 2011 Location: EltHAM Status: Offline Points: 1104 |
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Thats a very strong breeding line both sides with SW and plenty of foals by all mares with runners and winners.
All looks good to me thanks everyone for your input and lets hope for a healthy bay filly 1st up!!! |
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TAUTO/WINFREUX
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v and m
Champion Joined: 21 May 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1119 |
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"one of the things I have learned from dosages is that certain characteristics can be introduced to a pedigree through different stallions."
got proof to go with that statement progold?
"But are incorrect facts better than no facts?"
last time I checked facts are something that actually exists, known to have happened and are facts until someone comes along and proves them wrong which you have not done so yet. can you be absolutely sure that any of FS's sons or any of the other suggestions that others have made wouldn't produce a good foal with Swanz?
"If I said to you to back a horse today at Geelong called Paradian because he is by a Danehill line stallion out of a Woodman line mare - just like Miss Finland - with every cent you own and he gets beaten, do I then just say, sorry I was just guessing"
every breeder gambles on their theories or someone elses and that can be things like dosage, ratings, nicks, conformation expert etc none of which can be proven to be absolutely correct in their theories. And like alot of people on this site I try to help by making suggestions of possible options while at the same time understanding some of the contraints like budget and location they have because I'm in the same boat as them as a breed to race owner.
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ZAMINGA
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Progold
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3212 |
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Did you back Paridian on the basis of it being bred on the same (?) cross as Miss Finland? If you didn't then why aren't you prepared to back the same judgement that is being offered as a mating that will cost between $20-30k to get to the yearling stage? If someone was to invest $20-30k on your suggestion, are you happy that you have invested 10 minutes on the recommendation? Breed to race owners need all the help they can get, so are you sure that you have invested the time and effort to consider all of the aspects of a mating that need to be considered? I always find it interesting that people can come up with recommendations for matings so readily. It usually takes me at least 10 hours to get close to understanding what I am even looking for, before I even start the search for an appropriate mate. No doubt I am slow. Then again, maybe I am not sure that Danehill/Storm Bird is the same in every case so no doubt I am making life difficult for myself. A statistic for people who obviously think that they are important. Over the last decade, there are roughly 50% of all Group 1 winners in Australia who have no duplications in their pedigrees within five generations. Danehill/Storm Bird or Danzig/Storm Cat fit mostly outside of these results. What statistic is more important in breeding? |
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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However if you want and more importantly need to breed winners, as distinct from Gp1 winners, Rosscoe's recent results (and with no due modesty mine over the last 40 years) suggest line-breeding with common ancestors within 3-6 generations can be hugely successful. Particularly when for reasons of finance you need to use modest stallions over mares, which further franks the dividends.
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
Cheers |
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maxamill
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2011 Location: vic Status: Offline Points: 1336 |
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how ever if we look at a generation back, lets say northern dancer , would you also say that is unproven ,or doomed for failure , my quick check and i mean quick leads to a quite a few of proven stallions are actually double to him , have a look at say high chap only for 1 instance , would you have put a line though him at the sales !! every line to ND
most punters would back a horse on form , not breeding as with matiings , here is an interesting read The vast majority of High Chaparral’s stakes horses are inbred 3x4 to NORTHERN DANCER, and some have a third line to this great stallion in the fifth generation. He has sired the Gr.3 winner Above Average from a DANEHILL mare, and the Gr.1 Fillies’ Mile second Lady Darshaan is out of a daughter of GREEN DESERT. CAPE CROSS, a son of GREEN DESERT, is the broodmare sire of Gr.2 winner The Miniver Rose. yet he himself is awash with ND but has proved himself with danehill go figure
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maxamill
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2011 Location: vic Status: Offline Points: 1336 |
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pro quote "I am very confident that Annenkov/Swanz will result in an ordinary racing prospect." Based on what !!!! opinion, fact, your likes or dislikes type or breeding
please please tell
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maxamill
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2011 Location: vic Status: Offline Points: 1336 |
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Frighteningly, 30 % of the thoroughbred stallions registered in Australia this season are Danehill line stallions.what would the reason for this be !! i reckon because he was and is a champion stallion and a champion broodmare sire , etc etc and not just in aust , the same effect happened in US with MR P and northern dancer has done the same ,
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bradjm
Champion Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6175 |
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Can a case be made for purrealist / swanz
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maxamill
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have a look at say high chap only for 1 instance , would you have put a line though him at the sales !! every line to NDyeh this is crap i pushed the wrong button but ya get my drift
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Progold
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3212 |
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Who said that Northern Dancer duplications were the reason that I am unimpressed by the mating?
However, now that you highlight it, it raises a very interesting question though with daughters of ND and inbreeding in Australia. High Chaparral? Not sure how to answer that apart from it being a good mating overall with only one line of Northern Dancer.
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Progold
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3212 |
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Frighteningly, 30 % of the thoroughbred stallions registered in Australia this season are Danehill line stallions.what would the reason for this be !! i reckon because he was and is a champion stallion and a champion broodmare sire , etc etc and not just in aust , the same effect happened in US with MR P and northern dancer has done the same ,
What I find particularly of concern is comments that identify all sons and grandsons of Danehill as being the same. Remember the Danehill/Storm Bird and Danzig/Storm Cat thing. If we can't differentiate that, then how can we differentiate sons and grandsons of Danehill. Effectively, 30% of the studbook, according to the computer programmes, are the same sire.
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Progold
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3212 |
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For those interested in nicks of Danehill line/Storm Cat line, yesterdays winner, Foxwedge, as Pedigree Consultants point out is a result of this. He is by Fastnet Rock out of a mare by Forest Wildcat. Two important questions no doubt are how true to type are FR and FW of their ancestors, and perhaps the bigger one, is the close relationship of Storm Cat and FR's damsire, Royal Academy of more influence to the pedigree than the presence of these two stallions alone?
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maxamill
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runfer i agree with your ealier statement , and pro, some of yours, once upon a time , it was said that this mating was to close to danehill , etc etc , , well the only thing that they had in common was ND so i would or could only assume that it was he that was to close , as i have tried to point out that some consultants believe that a danehill storm cat danzid storm cat etc etc etc is a proven mix and evn though poor tauto mare is not SC but a Son of, and annenkov the same , he unproven as a sire and she unporven as a b mare , but both somewhat proven in there racing career , not champions buy any stretch , but certainly proven beyond doubt of many others in the breeding barn , if i were at the sales and i seen a 1st foal out of a mare that one 100 k i certainly would be having a look , with or without a new unproven sire , and if it happen to win the coments, i have no doubt, that it is bla bla bla out of bla bla bla storm cat danehill cross, and pro i do like most of your comments but how do you subst That you believe that this will not produce a racing propect , or do you have one of these bloody wands i was trying to buy
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