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Housing collapse 2012 for Australia |
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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Posted: 20 Sep 2010 at 1:55pm |
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Its,on,the,way,peoples.
Will,start,in,2011. Properties,in,Australia,will.drop,by,40percent,to,60,percent. We,are,the,last,developed,country,to,get,hit. But,its,on,the,way. Homes,worth,$800,000,now,will,drop,as,far,as,$400,000,in2011. Interest,rates,set,to,skyrocket. Best,time,to,sell,,,,,,,,NOW. |
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Maximillions
Champion Joined: 26 May 2008 Location: Queenslanda !!! Status: Offline Points: 6207 |
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.....ok..ok...I'll let you move in with me....only till things get better
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Forget the odds.....You are Unstoppable !
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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Thanks,Maxi.
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The Muffin Man
Champion Joined: 16 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6389 |
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I have a double whammy coming then, I will have a house by then and a mortgage with Westpac. Oh the humanity!!! |
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"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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Yes,this,was,always,going,to,happen.
We,were,never,going,to,escape,it. The,housing,bubble,was,always,going,to,burst,here. It,has,been,over-inflated,for,far,too,long. People,just,assumed,it,would,keep,going,up,in,value. People,are,going,to,be,shocked,to,find,their,house,is,worth,half,it,once,was. Hence,best,to,sell,now. Better,off,in,stocks,for,a,while. Muffin,you,should,have,waited.You,could,have,bought,two,homes,in,2011. |
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The Muffin Man
Champion Joined: 16 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6389 |
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Strong employment, real wage growth, house shortages, and projected economic growth to continue means that a 40-60% price fall really is the realm of people like yourself BROOKE. Housing prices may not rise as quickly, stagnate, or even fall slightly due to interest rate rises, but they won't fall 40-60%. They would have to fall by more than 20% for me to begin losing capital anyway, thanks to the Government handouts. On top of that and as always, you only crystalise the loss if you sell, so even if your armageddon scenario of 40-60% played out, just hold the asset until asset prices recover. It's the same with shares, you only make a loss if you sell.
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"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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Nocturnal
Champion Joined: 26 Sep 2008 Location: at the 800 Status: Offline Points: 13667 |
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The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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Muffin,if,your,goal,is,longterm,with,a,property,then,yes,stay,with,it.
But,most,people,will,struggle,to,pay,their,mortgage,anyway. Thus,homes,are,going,to,sell,for,half,their,price. By,the,way,most,economic,experts,are,predicting,this. Our,homes,were,over,inflated,for,a,long,time The,bubble,will,burst. |
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The Muffin Man
Champion Joined: 16 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6389 |
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Most economic experts aren't predicting 40-60% falls in price. Prices may come off a little with interest rates rising and Government support being somewhat withdrawn, but demand will stay quite robust due to the reasons I mentioned earlier.
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"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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A,home,worth,$500,000,right,now,will,struggle,to,be,worth,$350,00,by,the,end,of,2011.
Thats,the,reality,australians,will,face,next,year. |
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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And,Muffin,even,the,best,Stock,experts,know,the,housing,prices,are,going,to,slump,in,2011.
The,poorer,outer,suburbs,will,drop,first.400,000,to,$200,000. Then,gradually,closer,to,city,will,also,drop.Not,as,much.But,certainly,$700,000,apartments,will,drop,to$550,00 That,will,be,the,common,trend,next,year.A,downward,one. Wont,recover,for,several,years. |
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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that,was,meant,to,say,$700,00,to,$550,000,,innersuburbs.
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The Muffin Man
Champion Joined: 16 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6389 |
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I can't see a house worth $250,000 now being worth $125,000 in a year's time unless our unemployment rate has blown out to a record level. Maybe some of the extreme high end house prices will fall somewhat as the market cools, but I severely doubt the houses up to $700-$800k will experience a large drop in price. Strong demand underpinned by low unemployment won't allow it to occur. Time will tell though I guess.
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"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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Muffin,whilst,employment,rate,strongly,affects,economy,,,,the,crash,is,due,to,years,of,over-inflation.
Its,a,case,of,what,goes,up,must,come,down. Its,been,a,bubble,for,a,long,time The,government,tried,to,Band-aid,the,affect,two,years,ago,but,ultimately,it,only,delayed,whats,going,to,happen. Its,not,"if",,,its,"when". And,yes,properties,even,over,$800,000,will,certainly,drop,to,$600,000,to,$500,000,etc. Its,not,going,to,be,a,gentle,decline. The,current,market,is,stagnant. But,the,decline,is,next. |
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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You,state,"strong,demand".
Thats,exactly,the,point.There,WONT,be,a,demand,in,2011. Interest,rates,will,be,too,high,,,forcing,people,to,rent,and,not,afford,to,buy. Thus,home,owners,unable,to,pay,mortgage,forced,to,sell,at,much,cheaper,prices,to,meet,market. |
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The Muffin Man
Champion Joined: 16 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6389 |
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Interest rates won't be "too high," they will be back to NORMAL levels. The housing market was still strong in 2006-2007 when interest rates were far beyond what they are today, and what they will be in a year's time.
While people remain employed, they will continue to demand housing. You don't think that when all of those people renting start seeing housing prices decline by, say, 10%, they won't think it's time for them to enter the market? The key is that unemployment remains low, meaning people have incomes that are able to service their mortgage and those same people are confident they will have an income stream into the future. You won't get a 40-60% house price crash unless it's accompanied by 10% unemployment. The Australian housing market is NOT the US housing market, there are many, many differences. Let's start with the fact our banks don't typically lend to people with no chance of making repayments. |
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"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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So,you,actually,predict,the,prices,will,keep,going,up/and-or,remain,stagnant?
Are,you,"assuming"unemployment,wont,reach,10,percent? |
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The Muffin Man
Champion Joined: 16 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6389 |
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Let's remember your prediction here, it was 40-60% by 2011. Unemployment will not double in 12 months. Housing prices may come off a little bit, particularly at the higher end of the scale, but they won't come off 40-60% with unemployment fluctuating between 5-6%.
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"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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Nocturnal
Champion Joined: 26 Sep 2008 Location: at the 800 Status: Offline Points: 13667 |
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The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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In,2007,I,predicted,we,were,heading,to,a,global,financial,crisis,and,people.on,here,laughed,at,me.
One,year,later,,,,,bang.2008.it,hit. I,also,informed,people,that,Westpac,was,in,serious,trouble,with,Centro. Only,a,few,months,later,Westpac,required,itself,to,join,with,smaller,bank,St.George,to,prevent,potential,disaster. Now,Im,saying,huge,housing,decline,in,2011. |
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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By,the,way,Muffin,housing,declines,were,GLOBAL,and,still,are.,,,Not,just,United,States
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BROOKE
Champion Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 12633 |
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My,other,prediction,,,,
United,States,will,want,China's,oil.and,China,is,going,to,reply,"get,lost,you,owe,us,trillions" And,ummmm,trouble. Thats,why,we,need,to,swap,sides.Go,with,China,not,United,States. United,states,is,GONE. |
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Wortel
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Gold Coast Status: Offline Points: 17050 |
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China isn't going to get that money back
The US empire is about to collapse.
Revolution!!! |
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Maximillions
Champion Joined: 26 May 2008 Location: Queenslanda !!! Status: Offline Points: 6207 |
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...Maybe what Brookeeee is trying to say is that Australia can only look back on its past data...that is, previous interest rate rise history in this country...At this time Australians starved themselves but kept the home !...what they are predicting this time is that Australians will walk away from their homes causing a flood of property onto a cashless market....Yes Brookee baby it could very much unfold this way
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Forget the odds.....You are Unstoppable !
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birricannia
Champion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1079 |
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Not only are we going to lose our houses but there are no bloody comas left caus' brook used them all.
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Owners think they're trainers,trainers think they're jockeys and jockeys don't think
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Rosscoe
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Current Stable - Soul Star & Adivinar + Lady Vega
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Rosscoe
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Current Stable - Soul Star & Adivinar + Lady Vega
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slowdown
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thats funny Birri.
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Wortel
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Home owners should build a shirine to immigrants.
If not for the demands they placed on our market it would have crashed years ago. They don't spend money, they just buy the cheapest food, live on rice and buy all our property. |
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Nocturnal
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Get out from under rock wortel,
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The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....
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