Lonhro - A trend appears

James0330 wrote: Just like to talk about Lonhro who is as most of us would know was a wonderful racehorse who won over 5 Million in prizemoney and 10+ Group 1's winning up too 2000m. I as others may have noticed a trend with him as a sire (Standing under the Darley banner)... that is the inability to sire any quality Middle Distance Stayers or horses that can perform at the top level (G1) over 1600m+. Lonhro comes from a quality Middle Distance family, his Sire Octagonal won the AJC Derby & 2 BMW Stakes over 2400m at G1 level aswell as numerous other Group1 events at or around 2000m and his Grandsire is ofcourse Zabeel who has produced countless top line stayers who are renowned for big stage success in major staying classics. Octagonal is also as we know from the best Australasian family in the Stud Book with the likes of Don Eduardo (AJC Derby), Tristalove (Australian Oaks), Danewin (Multiple G1 2000m Winner), Kempinsky (VRC Derby Placegetter), Viking Ruler & De Beers. Lonhro's female family is represented chiefly by top sire Grosvenor (VRC Derby) aswell as National Gallery (WATC Derby), Mahaya (AJC Oaks) & Requiem the winner of the Saab Handicap. Back to Lonhro, his oldest crops are rising 5yo which i know is young for a sire however has given us time to see this trend. Lonhro has only sired two winners at 2000m+ and the furthest of those was at 2025m by a horse in Rowland who has a stamina laden female line. This maybe the root of the issue in that he is largely being bred to sprinter milers (Due to Darleys obsession with speed). Lonhro should in theory however still be siring more 2000m+ due to his pedigree and racetrack performances. Of course there is Denman who won the G1 Golden Rose over 1400m (A race for the breeding industry IMO) however could not run out the 1600m of the Australian Guineas. I think Denman can run 1600m however in top class company his sire may fail him as he has seemed to inherit Lohnro's inability to perform at top level high pressure races (Well noted for his performance in the Cox Plate). He is though churning out the winners from his large crops but has developed a niche in siring a multitude of metropolitan, Listed, Group 3 and 2 winners at distances primarily from 1000m to 1600m which as mentioned is i believe largely due to not having the real mental toughness to withstand high pressure racing as all top liners require and the female families of these horses primarly sprinter miler orientated. I'll go out on a limb and say that Lonhro will not: Produce a G1 2200m+ WINNER Produce a Sydney or Melbourne Cup PLACEGETTER Produce a G2 2400m+ WINNER Produce a G1 Queensland Derby, VRC Derby or AJC Derby WINNER Produce a VRC Derby PLACEGETTER Produce a Cox Plate WINNER I dont see how a horse with Lonhro's racetrack performances (5 Group 1 2000m Wins) and coming from a classic Middle Distance Staying family on the Maternal & Paternal side cannot transmit that on to his progeny regularly at Group Level over 2000m. Ideas & Thoughts?

James0330 wrote: Good point 'Biggles'. Lets hope so :) Does anyone think that Lonhro is passing on his trait of not being able to face an 'Acid' test?

James0330 wrote:  I dont see how a horse with Lonhro's racetrack performances (5 Group 1 2000m Wins) and coming from a classic Middle Distance Staying family on the Maternal & Paternal side cannot transmit that on to his progeny regularly at Group Level over 2000m. Ideas & Thoughts?

brogers, Is what you are talking about, what Jim Bolger invested in ?

http://www.equinome.com/

Dosages are about the average of the breed. So that, in general terms, one can make some sort of prediction on aptitudinal type, based on results at the track.

The Equinome thing has a very long way to go before standing a test of time as Dosage has. As I have said before, Equinome could build on the data established by Dosage, which is always an evolving document, as history showS.

So what if I now said Danewin is an Intermediate/Solid influence and Commands a Brilliant/Intermediate influence. Their race records, while different we all agree, did overlap to some degree, as do their sire records. Danewin too sires a good proportion of his SWs under 1600m. They were different physical types no doubt, which may contain the real answer. Over to Equinome.

But back to Lonhro.

Octagonal is no great influence for stamina overall, reflecting the influence of Eight Carat I think, which in turn possibly had a lot to do with her grand sires Relic & Klairon. Again IMO. Not sure how one would test that for the Ss or whatever thingy.

In addition, we could point to L's dam, Shadea, a top class two year old herself by a major speed influence in Straight Strike by another far greater one in old Mr Prospector.

Of Lonhro's 18 (I think) SWs, maybe half or so are from SW mares which themselves won at under 1600m. Others such as Denman, are from mares with predominantly speed pedigrees, so this may then become the main focus.

The background stamina in Lonhro's pedigree may be "swamped" ( for wont of a better term) by his own brilliance, a factor of Shadea (etc) and Eight Carat (etc) & ultimately the speed influences of the dams of his SWs. This could change of course now that Lonhro is under the Darley banner and may serve a different aptitudinal type of mare.

Just some thoughts, but  not totally based around Dosage.

But some thoughts totally based on Dosage learning. 

John H wrote: So what if I now said Danewin is an Intermediate/Solid influence and Commands a Brilliant/Intermediate influence. Their race records, while different we all agree, did overlap to some degree, as do their sire records. Danewin too sires a good proportion of his SWs under 1600m. They were different physical types no doubt, which may contain the real answer.

Hi Byron

While that MIGHT be the case, in hindsight the most likely scenario (based on Equinome's conclusions) is that Danewin & Commands are both CT (to use Equinome's terms), rather than one say CC or TT. There are only 3 options I think.

Did Equinome actually test any full relations ?

As strange as it may seem to some every horse has a mother [who contributes a bit more than 50%]

John H wrote: Hi Byron While that MIGHT be the case, in hindsight the most likely scenario (based on Equinome's conclusions) is that Danewin & Commands are both CT (to use Equinome's terms), rather than one say CC or TT. There are only 3 options I think. Did Equinome actually test any full relations ?

As I said earlier, I believe distance aptitude is polygenic so there is more than one gene involved but to reply to your statement, in the case of Equinome's findings there are only three options as the gene is coded with bases cytosine (C) or thymine (T). The sire and the dam have a pair of these so they can be C:C C:T or T:T. When mated they pass on one, if they are C:T they could pass on the C to their foal or the T to their foal, with the mare or sire contributing the other half as the case may be. I don't know if Equinome tested full relations but I do know that they tested multiple horses by the same sire who was a C:T according to their test and the sire in question didn't dominantly provide one over the other, hence his foals could be good milers, or if the mare passed on a T the same as the sire, best over jumps.

I'm glad you think so Riceman (and we all know your vague point) because the way I see it Byron has moved from explaining things in terms of Ss (etc) to CT (etc) to now GB (etc). Red and blue and purple ? For heaven's sake.

Remind me again what Equinome is actually saying.

 I know. That CC + TT could make purple !

Not one of us doubts that environmental factors are critical to the end result and also that there will inevitably be advances in the study of equine genetics which will improve our understanding of thoroughbred breeding. Even we Dosage boffins !

To give you a heads-up, a few months back I posted a list of stakeswinning full relations & made the point that many were raced by their breeder & trained by the same trainer & were therefore reared & trained under similar conditions, As well as have much the same distance requirements (hey), again in a majority of cases. At about the same rate as the Equinome results I would guess except Equinome is very, very limited in what it is actually saying, IMO.

So back to Lonhro, the fact that so many of his SWs were reared & trained under the same "environmental" (inc mating planning) conditions is extremely important to his results on the track, as well as the aptitudinal issues already mentioned.

John H wrote: I'm glad you think so Riceman (and we all know your vague point) because the way I see it Byron has moved from explaining things in terms of Ss (etc) to CT (etc) to now GB (etc). Red and blue and purple ? For heaven's sake. Remind me again what Equinome is actually saying.  I know. That CC + TT could make purple !

If I could just make the point that Dosage is not a study of genetics.  Yes, we all realise genetic inheritance, but we are talking potenital aptitude (as well as the oft forgotten developmental issues of dosage especially important in Varola's work).

That equation is a direct quote from the Equinome website. They do not differentiate between CT or TC, by the way.

I think what both Byron & Don are saying then is that either T (red) or C (blue) will be dominant, with Byron saying the horse will have the aptitude of the sire or the dam, depending on what's what.

But that is not what Equinome has found, is it ?

They say that CT horses perform in a different manner to both CC horses & TT horses, being middle distance specialists in general terms. They are not in general specialist sprinters or out-and-out stayers as would be inferred if C or T were dominant, the way I think Byron implies.

CT horses are neither dominant red or dominant blue the way I read the Equinome data.

They might not be purple (which is just used as an example BTW being neither red or blue) either but they seem to race that way.

At least that would be my impartial reading of the Equinome results.

Ultimately it is unknown whether a 'good performance' set of genes behaves like skin colour (with a blended result) or like tongue rolling (either can do it or can't).  Or perhaps somewhere in the middle.