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Fixed Odds Question

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Shakamaker View Drop Down
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    Posted: 28 May 2010 at 7:18am
For instance, Ortensia is currently 3.80 with the TAB for the Doomben 10000 while 5th emergency Latin News is 11.00 who will more than likely not start.
 
The question is, is there a deduction for Ortensia, and all the others in the field for that matter, once Latin News comes out of the market?
 
On betfair, Ortensia is available to back @ 5.00 and Latin News' current reduction factor is 5.8%
 
It seems to me if anyone was taking the 3.80 now for Ortensia they're going to be fairly ripped off come jump time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fair bet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2010 at 7:31am
there is $30 for Ortensia @ the $5 on betfair, a further $172 @ $4.90....if you want $202 on then go for it and take the price on betfair will be much better off than taking $3.80 less deduction tab sportsbet
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Shakamaker View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shakamaker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2010 at 7:35am
Have already had a slice of $5.00 on betfair, surely after the reduction factors come into play i'm still looking at around $4.50 would you think?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Racetherace Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2010 at 7:36am
Why is latin news not racing?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fair bet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2010 at 7:40am
yep your shopping way better than the $3.80....i daresay on raceday will be around a $4.40 chance...whichever way you go save on Phelan Ready for something
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Shakamaker View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shakamaker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2010 at 7:42am
Originally posted by Racetherace Racetherace wrote:

Why is latin news not racing?
 
Being 5th emergency would probably have something to do with it
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Racetherace Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2010 at 7:49am
Okay well ... Hmm lol, usually it says it on that free form site if they are an emergency.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote questions Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2010 at 9:20am
i have tested this out aswell, what exactly are the rules in relation to emergency's.

you get your money back if you back latin news and he does not race, but if he does race it means there are 4 horses scratched and if they are horses in the top  16 then they bring a reduction, but if they are an emergency they dont bring a reduction.

is that all correct.
"it's not gambling if you're absolutely sure you're gonna win" Barney Stinson
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shakamaker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2010 at 9:47am
I'm quite sure there will be deductions once the emergencies come out, so Ortensia at 3.80 before scratchings is criminal
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote questions Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2010 at 7:09pm
i am sure i have put on bets in the past that have not incurred a deduction once the emergencies went out. if anyone cant answer the question i might just hit up the agencies to find out
"it's not gambling if you're absolutely sure you're gonna win" Barney Stinson
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 May 2010 at 1:32am
After Final acceptances/ barriers and Final fields are declared the betting is no longer "all in".... Scratched u get yr money back and deductions apply.
up the ky ber
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote questions Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 May 2010 at 5:11am
but does that include emergencies getting scratched? once they have final scratchings and the emergencies automatically get scratched, does that lead to deductions for the horses in the final field
"it's not gambling if you're absolutely sure you're gonna win" Barney Stinson
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shakamaker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 May 2010 at 5:18am
Yeah it has to, just imagine it being a 21 horse field then there are 5 scratchings in the morning
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote questions Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 May 2010 at 5:52am
but i am sure they must take that into account

i just did the math with the TAB, they currently have the field at 129% for the doomben 10,000 and including the emergencies it is at 143%

to compare that too another race like race 7 in sydney tomorrow with some good quality horses, that is currently set at 129% also. that suggests to me that the prices are equated not including the emergencies.

i dont often to the math but interesting how a normal race on the totaliser is set at 120% and you can see how much they like the early bets and how important it is to do your own research before backing a horse
"it's not gambling if you're absolutely sure you're gonna win" Barney Stinson
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crazyhorse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 May 2010 at 6:06am
I think your question is valid but check this one out for how good the bookies have it.
 
In the third page of Best Bets they have a market for who will finish in front of who in match race betting.
 
They have Latin News at $1.90 to finish in front of I think it is Hot Danish.
 
Now call me paranoid or a conspiarcy theorist but if that is not corporate theft then please show me what is?
 
And they are complaining about the 1.5% tax on turnover.
 
Give me a handkerchief for my tears!
Everyone makes mistakes but it is a wise man who faces them head on.
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Shakamaker View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shakamaker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 May 2010 at 6:26am
Following is the deduction schedule for fixed odds on TABCORP
 
 
If the 5 emergencies are scratched there will be 6 cents deduction in the dollar for Latin News ($14), 2 cents in the dollar for Mr Unforgettable ($35) and no deductions for the other 3 which are all >$51
 
So if you back Ortensia at the current $4 and the 5 emergencies are scratched, you will be paid $3.62 if Ortensia wins ie 4x6 + 4x2 = 32 cents deduction
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