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First Season Sires

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v and m View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote v and m Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: First Season Sires
    Posted: 12 Jun 2008 at 8:07pm

Which first crop stallion do you think will become top first season and/or second season sire in Aust and which will become an over priced disappointment to most owners.

 

Some stallions to choose from are:

Al Maher

Charge Forward

Elvstroem

Fastnet Rock

High Chaparral

Lion Heart

Niello

Not a Single Doubt

One Cool Cat

Refuse to Bend

Savabeel

Shamardal

Footstepsinthesand

Tiger Hill

 

Lets see who can predict it exactly

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Poulsen View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Poulsen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jun 2008 at 8:18pm
Fastnet Rock & Charge Forward, Al Maher the darkie
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote woody Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jun 2008 at 8:27pm
If we could predict that we would all be better off, haha. Can you?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slightchance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jun 2008 at 8:30pm
I think Dane Shadow had some nice looking stock and could prove a surprise packet
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Greg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jun 2008 at 8:49pm

Fastnet Rock from Al Maher.

Niello the quiet achiever.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Greg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jun 2008 at 8:51pm
above is my guess.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sweetvictory Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jun 2008 at 10:08pm
2006 Foal Crop
Fastnet Rock 162 Live foals
Al Maher 152
Elvstroem  139
Niello 95
Lion Heart 82
 
Like Exceed and Excel, Fastnet Rock has the numbers and support by leading trainers he will probably end up the clear winner. Exceed and Excel had 104 live foals in his first crop and with 40 of those having started as a 2yo almost more than double that of any other first season sire i think this will be the same scenario for Fastnet Rock.
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v and m View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote v and m Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 12:06am
I actually think Al Maher could be top second crop sire (because slower maturing) and Elvstroem be the disappointment. As for top first crop sire Confused not sure, I looked up the easter yearling sale and put all the yearlings through my system and out of the first crop yearlings the ones I gave the highest ratings to were the Al Mahers, so because it most of the time comes down to numbers I'll say Fastnet Rock. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote octavius Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 2:01am
Al Maher ticks all the boxes for me.

I also like Savabeel but it will take him a little longer than the rest needless to say...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Poulsen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 2:05am
Much support for Al Maher , yet this did not appear to be the case at the sales.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dopey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 2:08am
In order:
Fastnet Rock
Charge Forward
Not a Single Doubt
Al Maher
Lion Heart
Elvstroem

Savabeel

Shamardal

One Cool Cat
High Chaparral

Niello

Tiger Hill

Refuse to Bend

Footstepsinthesand

take note and report on it next year.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cityboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 2:12am
This might be obvious but I was told that the lack of support at the sales was because they were generally poor lookers.
 
Can't comment on them myself because i wasn't there to check them. However, I did enquire why they generally sold so poorly because I've always thought he was a good sire prospect.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vontastic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 2:18am
Originally posted by v and m v and m wrote:

I actually think Al Maher could be top second crop sire (because slower maturing) and Elvstroem be the disappointment. As for top first crop sire Confused not sure, I looked up the easter yearling sale and put all the yearlings through my system and out of the first crop yearlings the ones I gave the highest ratings to were the Al Mahers, so because it most of the time comes down to numbers I'll say Fastnet Rock. 
_popupControl(); I have a yearling colt by Elvstroem the dam has had five foals.3 runners for 3 city winners.This colt has always been the standout.
If anyone is interested in becoming a partner call me 0413339341.
But definately not a 2 yr old.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bones Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 2:47am
I agree with the inappropriately named Dopey.

TOP 3

1. Fastnet Rock - on ability and opportunity
2. Charge Forward - on ability and quality of stock
3. Not a Single Doubt - on untapped ability & pedigree

Smokey: One Cool Cat - on Cambridge Stud opportunity and just because.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Romano Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 3:16am
Hands down Fastnet Rock. His yearlings were outstanding
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cityboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 3:28am
Charge Forward then Fastnet Rock then Not a Single Doubt
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote travo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 4:07am
charge Forward, Fastnet on top
 
Savabeel - flop
It's only a rort if you're not in it.......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hobby Horse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 4:29am
1. Fastnet Rock ( very hard to go past )
the rest .....
Not a single doubt
Lion Heart ( I like a longshot )
charge forward
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 4:31am
Fastnet Rock by a space, had the numbers, the mares, produced the types, and they went to the right trainers...absolute lock.

Not a Single Doubt is the sleeper, I saw half a dozen of his that looked very precocious 2yo types, pretty much what he was. He had a filly at Easter from Robyn Wise's which was one of my favourite filly's at the sale...cracker.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 6:35am
By winners - fastnetrock
Prizemoney - one cool cat
 
flop - Al Maher
 
I'll pencil refuse to bend in for a late season 2yo star to emerge.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sadlers wells Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 5:26pm
my elvis filly is fast very fast and loves to run was hoping for a stayer when i bred her but think she will be a sprinter
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote v and m Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 5:41pm
Originally posted by sadlers wells sadlers wells wrote:

my elvis filly is fast very fast and loves to run was hoping for a stayer when i bred her but think she will be a sprinter
 
what's the breeding?
 
The reason why I have some doubts about the elvis breed is that he is a Danehill stallion from a Marscay mare, Catbird is a stallion with that cross and I have always found it hard to line up a good match with a stallion like that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sadlers wells Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 6:15pm
mare by sadlers out of a manila mare who in turn is ot of a ribot mare
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote v and m Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 6:57pm
Catbird had 229 individual winners from 360 individual runners, percentage: 63.6%, average prize money per individual runner $29,963.
Number of stakes winners 11 (3.1%).
 
Compare that to dante's fury: indiv runners 76, indiv winners 40 (52.6%), average per indiv runner $20,794. Number of stakes winners 2 (2.6%)
 
Shrewdy: indiv runners 78, indiv winners 20 (25.6%), average per indiv runner $3,924. Number of stakes winners 0.
 
Other Danehill stallions with better records than the above that are cheaper than Elvis are:
 
Danetime: indiv runners 105, indiv winners 57 (54.3%), average per indiv runner $43,928. Number of stakes winners 7 (6.7%).
 
Danewin: indiv runners 195, indiv winners 128 (65.6%), average per indiv runner $69,726. Number of stakes winners 12 (6.2%).
 
Danzero: indiv runners 428, indiv winners 255 (59.6%), average per indiv runner $45,842. Number of stakes winners 19 (4.4%).
 
I would wait and see first
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote v and m Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 7:19pm
Originally posted by sadlers wells sadlers wells wrote:

mare by sadlers out of a manila mare who in turn is ot of a ribot mare
 
and you say its more of a sprint type? thats strange, the conduit mare profile shows 2-7-2-10-3, very low in "brillant"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote v and m Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 7:25pm
Sadler you would have been better off sending your mare to Niello or Lonhro
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vontastic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 9:30pm
Originally posted by v and m v and m wrote:

Sadler you would have been better off sending your mare to Niello or Lonhro
Hi V&M
 
Iwould prefer Elvstroem compared to the other 3 Danehill  stallions that you mentioned.
Danewins fertility rate is far too low 50/50
Danetime is gone
Danzero on the way out (was once great )
he has only had 4 stakes winners in his past 3 crops.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote zeditave Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2008 at 10:35pm
Fastnet Rock by the length of the straight next season! There is "not a single doubt" about it!!
Group 1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote octavius Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2008 at 1:28am
What are peoples thoughts on Benicio (not this years draft)?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2008 at 3:23am
 
Originally posted by joyita joyita wrote:

I'll go for Al Mahar first season sire 08-09 and Kempinsky second season sire 09-10.
 
Agree re AM joyita.
 
Kempinsky wasn't well received in the market place for whatever reason, so generally speaking his initial stock won't be with the top trainers.  And they'll presumably take time.  But hope he makes it.
It's hard to soar with eagles...

Cheers
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