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EI= Paranoia

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adolphus twirk View Drop Down
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    Posted: 04 Sep 2007 at 7:31pm
I can understand the impact on a horse in terms of heart strain if it races with EI, and the loss of confidence in betting if the form-guide does not reveal the unfit EI recovering horse( they race 'em now recovering from a cold) and the very real risk that heartstrain could cause a horse to drop back through the field at great risk to all horses and riders, but EI is NOT FOOT IN MOUTH DISEASE NOR MAD COW DISEASE. Brisbane is as far from  Cairns as Melbourne is from Brisbane but this paranoid reasoning has stopped racing in the Far North. Do people believe that if EI affected Italy they would stop racing in France? Hardly likely. The timing of this outbreak could not be worse in terms of the breeding season and the Spring carnival and it is a tragedy what is occurring to the industry in NSW in particular.  If an area is (apparently) not affected and if only the local jocks ride, and no interstate  transports come in and if the local farriers and stablehands continue to work solely within their area and it is remote from an affected area (e.g Townsville relative to Warwick, or melbourne relative to Randwick)  then I would be surprised if the contagion does spread.  If Tasmania cops it I would be very surprised, what Tasmania is experiencing is paranoia along with the rest of the country. Lock down where necessary but if quarantining approaches are applied, regional racing could continue without being brought to its knees by paranoia.
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Bagman View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bagman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2007 at 11:29pm
Posted at 10.31 am ....are you drunk??
I don't have one
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adolphus twirk View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote adolphus twirk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2007 at 6:01pm
Jober as a sudge.  What's your reasoned responses to my arguments?
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Riceman View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Riceman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2007 at 7:02pm

Fear will always be associated with these types of events unless you have planned, prepared and responded correctly.

This Nation had planned for this event, but we have not prepared properly, and we have definitely not responded correctly. Hence by the very nature of humans we will suffer fear, anxiety, and paranoia!!!!!
 
Now, your point is a contradiction to the PLAN (containment and eradication) this Nation had decided to adopt. That is the simple and most important FACT in this whole affair.
 
If this Nation had decided to adopt a vaccination plan then your point would be valid. This Nation did not so any vaccination plan is just too damn late and will only make the problem worse and most certainly make the approved PLAN fail. Exclamation
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VSP. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2007 at 9:15pm
Originally posted by Riceman Riceman wrote:

If this Nation had decided to adopt a vaccination plan then your point would be valid. This Nation did not so any vaccination plan is just too damn late and will only make the problem worse and most certainly make the approved PLAN fail.
 
Riceman, I am curious to know why you think vaccination is the answer here? Do you mean vaccination RIGHT NOW in the face of this outbreak, or do you mean that the authorities have been lax by not making vaccination mandatory in the past?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Riceman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2007 at 9:49pm
VSP, it appears you have misread my post.
 
I'm saying that vaccination is not the answer here, at the moment, today.
 
What I'm saying is vaccination was an option back in the planning phase. The planning phase is before the incident occurs. During the planning phase you conduct your hazard analysis, then followed by risk analysis, then followed by mitigation strategies, then followed by feasibility analysis including consideration of all options and recommending the best option, then followed by writing plans to support the chosen option.
 
Following the Planning Phase is the Preparedness Phase whereby one resources, rehearses, practices, liaises, etc etc etc in order to be ready to respond and execute your plan.
 
When the incident occurs then one moves to the Response Phase whereby you execute the plan. One would expect that everyone is prepared for the plan (doh!!!) and the combat agencies ably backed up by the support agencies go into response mode (doh!!!!) and there be the story. Damage is minimised, lives and property are saved, actions are implemented in the most effective and efficient manner, humanity is managed in the most safe, secure, and sensitive way allowed by the circumstances etc etc etc etc
 
Anyway, back to vaccination. The big V option would have meant that all horses are required to be vaccinated every year with every strain that the experts identified. This means before an incident occurred. It was not feasible due to many factors let alone simple cost benefit analysis. So that was that.
 
'Right Now' vaccination would be the worst action to take because it would mask and hinder the containment and eradication plan that his Nation adopted during the Planning Phase.
 
The issue that needs to be addressed is thus!!!
 
OK, we had a plan................ but why are we under prepared and more importantly why didn't the relevant emergency management arrangements get implemented correctly during the RESPONSE PHASE????
 
For those that are interested, the final phase of this system is called the RECOVERY PHASE and don't get me started on that one! Cry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VSP. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2007 at 10:48pm
It would be interesting to know the difference a vaccinated horse population would have made - obviously the EI has arrived in our country through shuttle stallions based in Eastern Creek & obviously several (if not many) of these stallions are now affected - interestingly ALL of these stallions are fully EI vaccinated already so clearly the vaccine is not foolproof.
One can only assume that a vaccinated population may have slowed and helped contain any spread but I guess its not for sure that we wouldn't still have a problem. The vaccinations are regular and expensive - it would be hard to implement or regulate this requirement, particularly in our leisure horse industry.
Non movement would seem the only way at present, but news of these wind-borne infections is rather alarming - that will defeat even the most stringent of lockdowns.
Ricey, do you think at this point in time that there is any merit in letting it run its course in certain areas, or do you think its out of our control anyway? Randwick has shown that containment wont stop the inevitable in a small area regardless of precautions.
 
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questions View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote questions Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2007 at 11:03pm
the only question i wish to put were the stallions vaccinated against ei when they left. race horses are when coming here. surly if you have horses going os to places with exotic diseases then they must be vacinated against those diseases. maybe they were immunised and just carried it on them. i am not sure.   i keep hearing that encosta de lago was the initial carrier but coolmore have said none of there horses were sick. does this mean they are not sick and just carrying the virus. surley if taking ecd oversea you would vaccinate against all diseases.
 
 
"it's not gambling if you're absolutely sure you're gonna win" Barney Stinson
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Riceman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2007 at 11:06pm
The idea of containment is to place a restricted zone around a set area and put it into quarantine. The idea is to let the virus burn itself out. That means the whole area stays quarantined for a set period from the last reported flu case until the contagious period is over.
 
The challenge in this relates to control mechanisms. This flu will not be carried over large distance by the wind. That is a myth. The virus needs a vector and in the wind that means droplets of mucous from the horse. Gravity means the droplets can only travel a small distance. Not 4kms or whatever. The distance would be measured in metres and not hundreds either!
 
Anyway, the control mechanisms are challenged in this case because of the ease in which humans can be the vector for spreading the disease. It is not impossible to implement proper quarantine to allow burn out. It just means extra resources, extra will power, and strong policing!
 
It will be much much much better for this Nation if we can eradicate EI than learn to live with it. No doubt we will learn to live with it, but horse breeding in this Country will never be the same again. It will be even more risky, more expensive, more hard work, and much much more frustrating. Exit stage left for many.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Riceman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2007 at 11:12pm
Originally posted by questions questions wrote:

the only question i wish to put were the stallions vaccinated against ei when they left. race horses are when coming here. surly if you have horses going os to places with exotic diseases then they must be vacinated against those diseases. maybe they were immunised and just carried it on them. i am not sure.   i keep hearing that encosta de lago was the initial carrier but coolmore have said none of there horses were sick. does this mean they are not sick and just carrying the virus. surley if taking ecd oversea you would vaccinate against all diseases.
 
 
 
Q, that is the problem with vaccination. The horse might not get sick but will still carry the virus. If one cannot see the clinical signs then one will not be aware that your horse is carrying.
 
The other problem with this virus relates to its high rate of mutation. It can create new strains very quickly and therefore old vaccinations are useless in these events.
 
It is a never ending story. Much much better to eradicate when one has the chance. In these events one doesn't get too many chances. Don't waste them is my opinion!!!!! Do it now. Call out more resources if needed, all expenses at this stage will be well invested.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bagman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2007 at 11:22pm
Logistics would be the first thing AT. Where did the trucks carrying the horses come from? Has anyone thats been in or around the entire TB population in that area been anywhere near Maitland,Quarentine etc? Have any horses that were bought from NSW recently been in contact with any of that areas horses or people? The list goes on and on.
The more time we can give the virus to show in the local population of horses the better. For mine, give it ..say.. another fortnight. Just to be safe. Why risk a potential stop/infection that will be for months, when we can take a few weeks and race with confidence.
I don't have one
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