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Dusty Martin over the odds to win Norm Smith

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    Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 10:39am
Dusty Martin is way overs to win the Norm Smith.

This year, Dusty in the Brownlow polled 11 best on field games.
Thats 50% strike rate, best on ground each time he played this year.
That means, he should be paying $2 to get best on ground, as its an even money chance he will indeed be best on ground, a 50% chance.

Dusty is paying $4.50 to win the Norm Smith.

That is WAY overs.

Cheers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 10:44am
In some markets, such as Unibet, Dusty is paying $5

Unbelievable Overs, given its a 50% chance he will indeed be best on ground.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 10:47am
With a 112 players on the field I suspect your math is incorrect.

I will let Max work out his real odds.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 12:40pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

With a 112 players on the field I suspect your math is incorrect.

I will let Max work out his real odds.


No Djebel

Each time Dusty played a game, there were 36 players on the field.
Dusty was best on ground for 50% of those games all year.

Grand final, 36 players on field.
Dusty is again a 50% chance.

Why? Speed, power, stiff arm fend offs, goals, midfield, forward, tackling, the list goes on

He is a 50% chance to be best on field, according to his entire season.

So $5, is WAYYYY OVERS
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 12:44pm
This is simplistic at best. Much more you need to look at. Start with how often he was best on ground against top 4 sides, against sides that were favourite, in games they lost. You are looking at the overall season which includes many games against no-hope sides or where they pulverised the opposition. Neither of these will happen on Saturday and in fact if the talk is to be believed there has been a lot of money for Adelaide 39+. If Richmond lose which is currently approx 60% it is very unlikely he will be best on ground.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 12:52pm
How often does a player on losing side win Norm Smith?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 12:59pm
does he wear no , 11,13,15 or 17 ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 1:08pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

This is simplistic at best. Much more you need to look at. Start with how often he was best on ground against top 4 sides, against sides that were favourite, in games they lost. You are looking at the overall season which includes many games against no-hope sides or where they pulverised the opposition. Neither of these will happen on Saturday and in fact if the talk is to be believed there has been a lot of money for Adelaide 39+. If Richmond lose which is currently approx 60% it is very unlikely he will be best on ground.

Over complicating it.

He gets best on ground 50% of the time, end of story.
In what was a very very even season on the ladder. Even the bottom side won 5 games.

He kept polling against top sides all year. 

If you want to play devils advocate, okay, he is a 40% chance to win Norm Smith, in which case $5, is still WAY OVERS.

He is a 50/50 chance to win the norm smith.
He is a dominant player, his entire year shows that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saintly96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 1:11pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

How often does a player on losing side win Norm Smith?



That's it in a nutshell. If Tigets were favourites he would be so much shorter. The fact that Adelaide are likely to win easily makes it tough for him to win it.

Kennedy was clearly BOG last year, but JJ got it because Doggies won.

If you think Richmond are a big chance then he is overs, but cannot see it myself, although I would love to be wrong.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 1:15pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

How often does a player on losing side win Norm Smith?


Excellent question.Thumbs Up

"Only four players have won the award in losing sides: Maurice Rioli in 1982, Gary Ablett, Sr. in 1989, Nathan Buckley in 2002 and Chris Judd in 2005."


So it's not impossible but it's rare.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 1:19pm
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

This is simplistic at best. Much more you need to look at. Start with how often he was best on ground against top 4 sides, against sides that were favourite, in games they lost. You are looking at the overall season which includes many games against no-hope sides or where they pulverised the opposition. Neither of these will happen on Saturday and in fact if the talk is to be believed there has been a lot of money for Adelaide 39+. If Richmond lose which is currently approx 60% it is very unlikely he will be best on ground.


Over complicating it.

He gets best on ground 50% of the time, end of story.
In what was a very very even season on the ladder. Even the bottom side won 5 games.

He kept polling against top sides all year. 

If you want to play devils advocate, okay, he is a 40% chance to win Norm Smith, in which case $5, is still WAY OVERS.

He is a 50/50 chance to win the norm smith.
He is a dominant player, his entire year shows that.




No it's not over complicating it at all. Your thinking is that of a simpleton.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 2:55pm
Yep, Tlaz and EE are spot on ... his odds are more reflective of the chances of a Richmond win ... if you think the Tigers are a lock, then he probably is overs.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 6:29pm
No player has won the unique double of a Norm Smith medal in the same year as his Brownlow medal
Another bad stat for your 50% chance idea Redemption. Keep throwing those darts! 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 6:29pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Yep, Tlaz and EE are spot on ... his odds are more reflective of the chances of a Richmond win ... if you think the Tigers are a lock, then he probably is overs.


If Richmond do win he's probably an evens chance cos he'll have to play a blinder for them to win.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 6:36pm
Originally posted by ThreeBears ThreeBears wrote:


No player has won the unique double of a Norm Smith medal in the same year as his Brownlow medal
Another bad stat for your 50% chance idea Redemption. Keep throwing those darts! 

Bit of an anomaly, seemingly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horlicks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 8:34pm
How often has the Brownlow medalist played in the GF?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 9:00pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Yep, Tlaz and EE are spot on ... his odds are more reflective of the chances of a Richmond win ... if you think the Tigers are a lock, then he probably is overs.


If Richmond do win he's probably an evens chance cos he'll have to play a blinder for them to win.

Spot on - He's the kind of player who attracts the attention when they win, but the rest of the Richmond midfield will have to match the toughness of the likes of the Crouch brothers and Sloane for him to get his chance to shine. I think they will struggle, and Dusty will struggle to show more than some flashes of brilliance (he is good though).

Thought he's been quite good with the media since last night too ... full on for him this week.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 9:01pm
Lot of very shonky Brownlow scoring last night. Here's a few Rd 2 Richmond 99 vs Collingwood 80 - Collingwood get 3 & 1 vote..........Rd 5 Western Bulldogs 122 vs Brisbane 90 - Brisbane get 3 & 2 vote.........Rd 15 Crows 89 vs Carlton 77 - Carlton get 3 & 1....stacks more. No wonder the bookies luv all those hundreds of minor markets they offer.
I've only backed one certainty in my life....& it lost !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 9:14pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Lot of very shonky Brownlow scoring last night. Here's a few Rd 2 Richmond 99 vs Collingwood 80 - Collingwood get 3 & 1 vote..........Rd 5 Western Bulldogs 122 vs Brisbane 90 - Brisbane get 3 & 2 vote.........Rd 15 Crows 89 vs Carlton 77 - Carlton get 3 & 1....stacks more. No wonder the bookies luv all those hundreds of minor markets they offer.
& a few more pearlers....Rd 16 Cats 163 Vs Lions 78 - Brisbane gets 2 & 1........Rd 19 GWS 98 vs Fremantle 86 - Fremantle gets 3 & 2..........Rd 21 West Coast 100 vs Carlton 83 - Carlton get 3 & 1.
 
I must be missing something in how some of these roosters score !
I've only backed one certainty in my life....& it lost !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2017 at 9:40pm
Umpires are queer bunch, and most of them patently do not understand the game ... you rarely see one that has actually played the sport at any level of competence.

It is an anomaly of most sports, that they have a medal that is of any consequence, that is decided by umpire or referee's votes?

These medals should certainly never include "best" in their title, nor fairest really, but maybe "suck up" or "most compliant" would be appropriate ...

The most important medal to me is the one voted by their on field peers, The AFL Player's Association Awards, not ones decided by officials or "experts".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Sep 2017 at 1:51am
Nup

Tigers may lose

Dusty will do twenty stiff arm fend offs
Kick 3 snap goals
Land a dozen tackles
Handball assist half the team for goals.

odds $2 chance of best on ground

$5 available. Thanks peoples.   Clap
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Sep 2017 at 2:37am
... except he wont get near the ball if they are being beaten all over the park ... maybe he'll bring his own!Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Sep 2017 at 6:51pm
Handball assist half the team for goals
 
What odds would you like on eleven individual goal scorers for the Tigers?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Sep 2017 at 7:25pm
Just do yourself a favour and bet the $5 on offer
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hot Sauce Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Sep 2017 at 8:31pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Lot of very shonky Brownlow scoring last night. Here's a few Rd 2 Richmond 99 vs Collingwood 80 - Collingwood get 3 & 1 vote..........Rd 5 Western Bulldogs 122 vs Brisbane 90 - Brisbane get 3 & 2 vote.........Rd 15 Crows 89 vs Carlton 77 - Carlton get 3 & 1....stacks more. No wonder the bookies luv all those hundreds of minor markets they offer.
& a few more pearlers....Rd 16 Cats 163 Vs Lions 78 - Brisbane gets 2 & 1........Rd 19 GWS 98 vs Fremantle 86 - Fremantle gets 3 & 2..........Rd 21 West Coast 100 vs Carlton 83 - Carlton get 3 & 1.
 
I must be missing something in how some of these roosters score !

 it helps to have a bald head, fuzzy hair, mullet or tattoos 

 they don't notice the average bloke

 what about the MOTY goin to Daniher

 shocked silence before some light clapping.   Daniher looked embarrassed.  Howe looked stunned.


the devil made me do it
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Sep 2017 at 1:42am
Agree HS. Daniher decision was a stinker. The sort of grab Nicky Winmar took in his sleep every third week.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2017 at 7:26pm
LOL
"She's going through a growth phase." - GW
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2017 at 7:28pm
Won ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2017 at 7:34pm
Norm Smith Medal Votes: 5 judges voted 3 2 1 13 D Martin 33331 10 BHouli 32221 2 A Rance 2 2 S Edwards 2 2 D Prestia 11 1 J Graham 1.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Sep 2017 at 7:40pm
Genius thread, this. I give it the GREEN LIGHT !
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