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Does Racing BIAS affect the Integrity Of Racing ??

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Luva Punt View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Does Racing BIAS affect the Integrity Of Racing ??
    Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 9:22am

What are forum members thoughts on bias tracks in horse racing ??

I know Djebel, for example takes a set against betting on racing at Moonee Valley due to the fact, when the rail is out there is always a bias, and all horses are not given an even playing field, and those who get back or wide, almost have no chance unless they find the fast lane.

Subastral will argue that that is the beauty of racing, and if the best horses were always winning racing would become boring ??????

As a punter, I side with Djebel, and don't like to bet on bias tracks.

Subastral would argue that if you are given an advantage, then use it to your favour.

Create or buy your own speedmaps and use it to back on pace runners ....... If you can't keep up with this, then you are just showing your lack of racing knowledge Smile

So, in your opinion, does racing BIAS affect the integrity of racing ??

Second question:   What is Racing BIAS ??

I used to think the continual bias in racing was caused by the curators watering the track and the rating across the track was due to whatever the track curator was doing and as a punter, you were deceived by being given an incorrect track rating which didn't line up with the correct rating of the actual track as the day progressed throwing out your form.

Older and wiser, I believe there is only one factor that is creating Racing Bias.

...... The moveable rail.  When the rail is moved from the true position you have bias.

Case in point, the difference between Moonee Valley Friday night with the rail in the true position for the entire circuit, compared to Saturday with the rail out 3 metres for the entire circuit.

Should the rail always be left in the true position, and if the track is not in a condition to play even for all runners, then should we actually be racing elsewhere and giving the track a rest.

Should there have been no racing on Friday Night, the Manikato run on Saturday instead, and the rail in the true position?

What are forum members thoughts?

Is there bias in racing?
Does it affect the integrity of racing?
What causes it?
What should be done?

Do you want bias in racing or not ??

LP


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Heavenly Glow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 9:42am
Its not ideal, but from a punters perspective, its your job to identify such bias - and punt accordingly. Those that can adapt on the fly - can take advantage of racing bias. If you can identify it early, there is often juicy odds for you. There is nothing worse than getting excited about a swooping horse, only for the track to play to leaders - and those closer to the rail.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Znatchy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 9:43am
Not sure why anybody would be complaining about rail out at the Valley.  It's a punters dream.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 9:44am
Perhaps ask me my opinion before thinking you know it. I have no idea what you mean by implying I would think racing would be boring if the best horses were winning all the time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linghi11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 9:45am
I think the worst is fast lanes... leaders track you can figure out, backmarkers track you can figure out, one or two fast lanes and you spend your time trying to figure out which jockey can identify them Confused
to the victor
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote deejays destiny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 10:32am
Bias schmius

Winners win and losers lose

That is all
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 11:02am
Perhaps I do not articulate myself properly but my issue with Moonee Valley is that I do not think championship racing should be held there.

Not because there is any biases but because even if the track is playing 100% fair and horses are winning from anywhere the majority of races are won due to luck.

I have no doubt Winx is the best horse from the Cox Plate, She still had all the luck in the world.

Championship races should be held on big open tracks where horses and jockeys have plenty of room to manoeuvreand make their runs, traffic if the biggest issue with Moonee Valley.

OK even on big spacious tracks we see bad luck as we saw with Foundation in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster but that bad luck was down to a bloody poor ride from Frankie Dettori.

Whilst Chautauqua was sailing down the outside getting an unimpeded run his main danger Terravista was never out of second gear having nowhere in the world to run.

The ride on Terravista was generally speaking a far superior ride to what Tommy Berry produced on Chautauqua, but as Zac Purton said, they are not riding helicopters.

Track bias is an unfortunate issue but I reckon whilst ever we race on TURF we will have biases.

I think old timers are wearing rose coloured glasses if they think bias is a modern racing issue.

As long as I have been following horse racing there has been bias of some sort. That time corresponds with the advent of SKY Channel in PUBs and TABS and than into our homes.

Its abit of a coincidence that biases only seems to have taken off after the advent of televised racing where we can all make up our own minds and are not simply believing what the caller tells us to believe.









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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 11:10am
Did anything change this Cox Plate day to other Cox Plate days? Why isn't there a big leader bias every Cox Plate?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Grieves Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 12:41pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Did anything change this Cox Plate day to other Cox Plate days? Why isn't there a big leader bias every Cox Plate?

Because every other Cox Plate, bar last years, has been run when the rail was TRUE.  MV is always fair when it is true.  Unfortunately the powers-that-be at the club have not realised this.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 12:50pm

Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Perhaps ask me my opinion before thinking you know it. I have no idea what you mean by implying I would think racing would be boring if the best horses were winning all the time.


Apologies Subby.  I went back over the Moonee Valley thread and it was Afros who implied racing would be boring without bias.

Originally posted by Afros Afros wrote:

Wow, what a surprise, Djebel and Bonfield complaining about Moonee Valley!

Let's be honest here, the only way to ensure completely fair racing would be to either have strait courses only, or run them all in lanes in staggered starts like in athletics, all courses are different and different horses are suited to different tracks.

If all the variables were taken out of racing then it would become quite boring with the same horses winning all of the time.  Keep it how it is, if you want to watch procession racing where the best wins every week, watch Formula 1.


You virtually stated that with the rail true it is fair and even racing, it is only with the rail out there is a bias.

Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Originally posted by Aurelius Aurelius wrote:

Moonee Valley would be best described as a Greyhound track.

If you can rail like a greyhound you can win.



Rubbish. With the rail true, swoopers can dominate. With the rail out, then it makes it easier for leaders. Plenty of horses came from well back to win Saturday and that is normal with a true rail. Cambered track deliberately ensures it is anything but a greyhound track.



Didn't intend to misrepresent you as I actually agree with your summation.  Thumbs Up


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 1:01pm
All good.Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 1:05pm

If you take CHAUTAUQUA as a case in point.

In the Manikato Stakes on Friday Night with the rail true, fair and even racing with an enormous run from CHAUTAUQUA that clearly showed his superiority, and had everyone raving about what a champion horse he is.

If you ran that same race on Saturday at Moonee Valley with the rail out 3 metres the entire course, I could make a case for the fact it would have been a completely different race, and given the track bias in place, all the other jockeys would have just needed to keep CHAUTAUQUA off of the fence, and those on the fence would have been advantaged, giving CHAUTAUQUA no chance whatsoever of winning, regardless of how well it ran on the day.

Does that sort of bias provide integrity in racing ?

Do you want to see horses, other than the best horses winning?

What it means for me, as a punter is that I cant put my bets on in the morning and go and play golf then look at the results later.

I need to watch the first few races and determine the bias before placing a bet, otherwise I risk the chance of doing my money cold because of the racing conditions the industry is choosing to provide.

As an owner, or a trainer, I wouldn't be too happy with all of the money I have spent, or all of the time spent preparing the horse, only to front up on race day to have virtually no chance of winning.

Why can't the rail be left in the true position permanently, and if a track is not fit for the purpose of even horse racing for all horses, then schedule the meetings elsewhere.

There are plenty of great racing surfaces in Victoria.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 1:08pm
Forget any of the biases, If Terravista gets a even break in the friday race would he have made Chautauqua work a little harder for his win.

Terravista never got an even crack at winning the race.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 1:09pm

It also doesn't 'help when a horse goes around a short priced favourite and virtually has no chance whatsoever in the run, due to where it is positioned, all because you are racing on a biased track surface.

It is not a good image for racing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 1:10pm
I think bias is the least of racings "image" problems.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 1:10pm
Originally posted by Luva Punt Luva Punt wrote:


If you take CHAUTAUQUA as a case in point.

In the Manikato Stakes on Friday Night with the rail true, fair and even racing with an enormous run from CHAUTAUQUA that clearly showed his superiority, and had everyone raving about what a champion horse he is.

If you ran that same race on Saturday at Moonee Valley with the rail out 3 metres the entire course, I could make a case for the fact it would have been a completely different race, and given the track bias in place, all the other jockeys would have just needed to keep CHAUTAUQUA off of the fence, and those on the fence would have been advantaged, giving CHAUTAUQUA no chance whatsoever of winning, regardless of how well it ran on the day.

Does that sort of bias provide integrity in racing ?

Do you want to see horses, other than the best horses winning?

What it means for me, as a punter is that I cant put my bets on in the morning and go and play golf then look at the results later.

I need to watch the first few races and determine the bias before placing a bet, otherwise I risk the chance of doing my money cold because of the racing conditions the industry is choosing to provide.

As an owner, or a trainer, I wouldn't be too happy with all of the money I have spent, or all of the time spent preparing the horse, only to front up on race day to have virtually no chance of winning.

Why can't the rail be left in the true position permanently, and if a track is not fit for the purpose of even horse racing for all horses, then schedule the meetings elsewhere.

There are plenty of great racing surfaces in Victoria.



The movable running rail is the worst invention in racing history.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 1:53pm
So there is always a leader bias when the rial is out at Moonee Valley? Isn't the rail always out on Cox Plate day after the meeting the night before? Certainly nothing wrong being wide in Adelaide's race. I can't recall another Cox Plate with such a rails bias as Saturday.

I hate track bias, especially as I like to put my bets on early, before any bias is apparent. I was lucky on Saturday as my two biggest bets of the day happened to race in the rails fast lane. Usually it's the other way around.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 1:57pm
Originally posted by Bonfield Bonfield wrote:

So there is always a leader bias when the rial is out at Moonee Valley? Isn't the rail always out on Cox Plate day after the meeting the night before? Certainly nothing wrong being wide in Adelaide's race. I can't recall another Cox Plate with such a rails bias as Saturday.

I hate track bias, especially as I like to put my bets on early, before any bias is apparent. I was lucky on Saturday as my two biggest bets of the day happened to race in the rails fast lane. Usually it's the other way around.

The way Winx had won her previous races nobody would have thought, despite her draw, that she would be the one the take advantage of the bias......

Even if there is a bias, I rarely change my bets, I trust the jockey to sort it out.






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lordy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 2:50pm
Percieved track bias is another inexact science punters need to assess and factor in. Just like barriers, speed maps, track ratings, horse's relative fitness etc. Its not an integrity issue at all.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 2:51pm
Are we overplaying the bias from Saturday? Coronation Shallan was the only horse that really surprised and runner up Azkadellia came from wide and well back and made good ground. Lake Geneva was fairly wide on the turn. You could easily argue My Poppette, Holler, Tawteen, United States, Winx, Jameka, Turn Me Loose (Bow Creek made impressive ground) win that race with the rail true also.
 
I am not saying it wasn't an advantage to be on pace, but I also argue that horses with the ability to be on pace in the first place deserve to win more often than not. If your horse has to rely on pace and ability to swoop, then that is a negative on your horse.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Atreus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 2:51pm
Bias is a good thing

Everyone always raves about how good HK racing is.  Well they have Sha Tin and Happy Valley which are like Flemington vs Moonee Valley.  Two quite different tracks that allow different types of horses to win

Having different tracks allows different horses to win and spread the prizemoney around amongst the owners while punters can adapt.  It is much better to spread the wins around among the owners with different biases than paying prizemoney down to 10th so you lessen the incentive to win or obtain your best possible placing as often as possible

The worst thing is to have every track the same
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lordy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 2:55pm
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Perhaps ask me my opinion before thinking you know it.

You're opinion is whatever we tell you it is.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 3:13pm
I've undertaken an extensive analysis of the track bias on Saturday. I looked where every horse was in the run and beaten margins.

It appears there was a distinct bias favouring the rails from around the 2000m mark to the 1000m mark. There was no bias against horses going wide on the turn, other than the fact they cover more ground. Races up to 1200m were largely unaffected. A good example is that Lake Geneva was 3 wide early and 4 wide on the turn yet still won. 

I calculated that in the 1600m races the inside had a 1.5 lengths advantage. On that basis favourite Azkadelia should have won the last by around 1.5 instead of being narrowly beaten. However the races most affected were the 2040m and 2500m races, where the horses travelling on the rails between the 2000m and 1000m marks had around a 3.6 lengths advantage. On that basis Tarzino should have convincingly won The Vase. It also explains why a lot of good horses were beaten 10 lengths or more in the Cox Plate. The first two horses home in all three 2000m+ races were on the rails in transit.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fairest One Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 4:03pm
Originally posted by Heavenly Glow Heavenly Glow wrote:

Its not ideal, but from a punters perspective, its your job to identify such bias - and punt accordingly. Those that can adapt on the fly - can take advantage of racing bias. If you can identify it early, there is often juicy odds for you. There is nothing worse than getting excited about a swooping horse, only for the track to play to leaders - and those closer to the rail.

Agree with most of that.

I guess bias significantly effects early market players.

It is not ideal, but it is what it is and you need to be flexible in your punting.


Cmon Apparitions!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Farmermick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 8:47pm
I have to agree with Heavenly Glow from a punters perspective you must identify such bias or you'll go broke quick. As for Winx the horse can race in most positions so being drawn 1 was always going to be good as most pressure races whats the first thing a horse will do is roll out.
9 times out of 10.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 9:44pm

So the majority of you would rather have bias tracks ??

If a track races fairly in the true position, why is there any need to move the running rail at all ??

So what do you expect punters to do?

Line up and donate their money and take pot luck on how the track will be playing on any given day, knowing full well you could be doing your money cold, or just give the first two or three races a miss until you can establish how the track is actually playing before placing a bet, because you know the industry, as a whole would prefer to conduct their racing on bias racing surfaces ??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2015 at 9:58pm
Originally posted by Lordy Lordy wrote:



Percieved track bias is another inexact science punters need to assess and factor in. Just like barriers, speed maps, track ratings, horse's relative fitness etc. Its not an integrity issue at all.



Lordy,

I can understand your position given you have a horse that leads and clearly can be advantaged by the track bias.

I still think bias tracks take away from the credibility of racing, and does affect the integrity and image.

Why is there a need for bias racing?    So the bookmakers can have an advantage and fleece the punters of their money  ??

I do not want to be backing a horse that has no chance whatsover of winning, even worse when it is in the market or favourite.

There is no valid reason for the industry to continually create an environment where there is track bias.   There are enough shady aspects of racing with cobalt etc...

Unless the whole purpose of racing is to part the punter from their cash, then you need to ask, so why should punters bother wagering on racing ???

Without wagering, you don't have your prizemoney.

It is a Catch 22.


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Q. Does Racing BIAS affect the Integrity Of Racing ??

A. Without a doubt. If there was track bias every week I would give up punting. I'm serious.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 2015 at 12:19am
This simply isnt an integrity issue unless you believe there is deliberate intent from a track manager to create bias.
Integrity is about being honest, principled and moral. I have zero doubt track managers have every intention of putting out a fair track.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 2015 at 2:33am
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

This simply isnt an integrity issue unless you believe there is deliberate intent from a track manager to create bias.
Integrity is about being honest, principled and moral. I have zero doubt track managers have every intention of putting out a fair track.


So why move the running rail at all, if the fairest and most even racing conditions, with no bias at all, is with the rail in the true position?

It is definitely an integrity issue if you want an open and honest wagering environment.

Who's decision is it to move the rail?

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