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DI value

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    Posted: 20 May 2015 at 11:36pm
Not much goes on in this quiet part of the forum so I thought I would kick start some chat.

I was looking at the page of Coolmore's new stallion and I noticed his 4th dam had a DI of 6.50 (which being a daughter of Dr Fager you would imagine she would be tilted to the speed end of the spectrum) and this got me thinking. I'm sure some of the dosage students on here would have seen them up around this figure, what horses have people come across in this range or higher.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Off and racing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 May 2015 at 11:37pm
Forgot to name the stallion Verrazano and the dam in question is Remedia
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JoH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 2015 at 3:00am
I've got one due this year O & R with an ANZ DI of 5.67 (US 7).
 
Will happily fess up to only knowing the basics about Dosage / Dosage Index and with foals' DI's ranging from 2.2  to 5.67 any plain language explanations would be gratefully received.




suck it up ... Life isn't run at w.f.a. :)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 2015 at 10:20am
You might be waiting a while for an answer Wink
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JoH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 2015 at 12:23pm
OK Gay3 thanks for the heads up  ...   in future I'll make sure I don't ask (or answer) questions unlikely to elicit immediate discussion and that don't have bite sized '25 words or less' vanilla answers.
TTFN





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 2015 at 11:41pm
I think if you check the values are skewed now. When SECRETARIAT raced 2.00 was truly representative of classic distance. Now the value is 4.00 but there has been no recognition of that by Romans.

Check for yourself by comparing the 1973 Kentucky Derby field to the current field.

I depend on the conduit mare profile. It is more honest.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2015 at 9:42am
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

You might be waiting a while for an answer Wink

You are right on that.Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2015 at 3:04am
Here's an interesting article that makes my point and the link to AP pedigree showing a dosage of 4.00 plus which is anathema to Roman's original thinking.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Dosage_and_the_Kentucky_Derby_123#

http://www.pedigreequery.com/american+pharoah

Never done the calculations on this and just speak from limited experience with my own mares.  But IMHO that older mares currently (15 or older) tend to bring dosage figures back in line with original aptitude thinking.  As I recall Romans went for quite a long time without designating chefs and now appears to have picked up the pace.  I also recall a "potential chef" list he put out.  Well, my thinking on this is, a chef is either it or not.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/verrazano6

Verranzano was highly touted as a classic distance colt but proved to be a miler.

Hate to see a thoughtful thread go to waste.Wink  Good luck with your mare.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2015 at 8:41pm
There are plenty of issues raised in the questions, and I will attempt briefly to touch on some.  There is certainly a trend in the thoroughbred to breed to more speed influences.  It follows then, that we will see horses with higher DI's winning over further than we would expect.  After all, as a former poster called NOD once said here, all horses will run 2 miles, it is just that some will run it faster than others.  If you look at Dr Roman's site, in particular http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/stats_2015.htm you will see that the average DI of winners of races in the US still fit pretty well with the established notions.  

In the case of American Pharoah, we clearly see that his dosage profile is considered to be a "trivial" profile in that no individual classification has a figure over 10.  With AP, his highest influence is 3 in classic and intermediate influences.  By using Dr Roman's non-chef influences, he highlights Empire Maker as a likely stamina influence so we need to consider this in such cases.  

This of course brings us to the issue of Dr Roman's reluctance to classify many new chefs.  Having discussed the matter with him, I certainly see his point, although perhaps still do not entirely agree.  His argument is solid that there are few stallions that he sees as important enough to classify.  On the other hand, the sheer weight of numbers of foals that stallions produce these days can see influences become apparent more rapidly than in the past.  For those interested, we cannot forget the work that John Hutchinson continues to do with out local breed, and the full list of ANZ chefs probably makes more sense in the Australian breed than the international classifications alone.  For those interested in that list, it appears on www.dosageprofile.com.

As a final point, one must always understand that dosage is a tool in understanding the thoroughbred.  While Dr Roman's interest in distance aptitude has an important role to play in that understanding, the dosage profile also reflects the typology of the breed.  Distance aptitude can have a correlation with precocity, but that is not always a given and classification of chefs can relate to the development of a stallion's progeny rather than simply a distance aptitude.

Dosage represents a fascinating study of the thoroughbred, and I urge anyone who wants to understand the breed a little more to further their knowledge of the study of dosage.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goldey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2015 at 9:16pm
Good to see you post once again Progold .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2015 at 9:18pm
Many thanks Progold, there are so few who fully understand dosage but many who'd like to Clap
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 2:29am
Thanks.   We yanks aren't as positive about Romans as you but I agree it is a useful tool. I notice in one of the posts indicating a Australian/NZ bias to the dosage calculator.   Is it the same as in the as in USA?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 9:55am
Not a bias but there have been a number of ANZ influences classified because the stallions' influence did not extend outside of the local region.  A stallion such as Star Kingdom dominated for many years, but was not noted internationally.  Indeed, many of the local influences from around the world, like Sunday Silence in Japan do not get the acknowledgement they deserve.  The thoroughbred has become more international, so no doubt this is a weakness in the current model.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 11:32am
Thanks for clarifying that. Do you have any thoughts on the conduit mare profile and is it used in OZ/NZ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 7:38pm
I have never studied the conduit mare theory.  There is an inherent danger in allocating influence to a mare when they produce so few progeny in comparison with stallions.  Having said that, there are a few mares that may well make the dosage system more accurate through classification as chefs.  The aim is to further understand the thoroughbred though, so I am all for any study that helps in that goal.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jun 2015 at 2:06am
Progold:  Thanks for your thoughts.  You might be interested in the following.

http://www.pedigreepost.net/archives/StatsAnalysisBillLathrop2004.html

Bill Lathrop published his work on the conduit mare in two forms.  One is for breeding and the other for handicapping.  Out of print now, Bill, quite up in age, no longer maintains his facebook or website.  I will say that his handicapping blogs (based on his mare formula) on many USA websites were well received and quite accurate.

Here is a link that tries to explain the profile.  I've got the book and it to be honest this link was somewhat confusing but I thought I'd provide it to you.

http://forums.prospero.com/discussions/Horse_Racing/_/_/ab-horseracing/24082.1

Gossip has it that Bill sold his "mare" rights to an Aussie.  Have not be able to confirm that.

I would be interested in your comments concerning how USA stallions and Aussie/Kiwi stallions might compliment opposing programs on a shuttle basis.  The newest chef, PULPIT, is not well represented on an international basis and yet his progeny are quite successful in the states.

Keep posting.  Cheers.

  


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