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Darren Weir - Does He Have What It Takes?

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Pazman View Drop Down
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    Posted: 28 Aug 2013 at 11:33pm
A very good season last year, winning everything from Ararat in Victoria to Snowtown in South Australia but Flemington in the Spring is a different class.

Yes, he had a G1 winner in Platelet but that was over 1200m. Anybody can do that.

The Melbourne Cup over 3200m is an assignment that many including Moody and Waterhouse have failed dismally with embarrassing attempts over the years and we put this down to a lack of ability, no not the horses they sent out but their ability to do what Cummings can do in his sleep.

Does Darren Weir have what it takes in ability to win with Puissance de Lune?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 2013 at 11:39pm
He's like a cheshire cat...fair dinkum never stops with churlish grin...lol
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ernest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 2013 at 11:41pm
How do you propose to answer your question? I mean, if the horse fails to get to or fails in the race, will that be because it wasn't good enough or because Weir wasn't a good enough trainer? You can celebrate Cummings all you like but even has missed out in the 48 of the 60 years that he's been training.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 2013 at 11:48pm
Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:

He's like a cheshire cat...fair dinkum never stops with churlish grin...lol



I would smile too if Michelle Payne slept in my bed.

Also Paz, Weiry has already come second in the Melbourne Cup, so the man knows what's required.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 2013 at 11:58pm
gee if i had the fave in the cup i would be cruizin too !  and with that horse, i think he has a good,un.
so good on him.   i reckon he can do it.
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pazman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 2013 at 11:59pm
Any concerns about exposing PDL early?

Valid question for a 5/1 Cup fav.

A that price Weir has to accept responsibility.

Gee Shane Warne knocking up Liz Hurely was a suprise. Darren Weir knocking up Michelle Payne must beat that for a weight carrying record for the boys?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pazman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 12:06am
Concerns that Weir is trying to mould PDL into a WFA horse from the run back. From his form OS, he is not WFA and this will compromise his stamina or the Cup. If he fails to mould hm into a WFA, then he won't win again this Spring.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 12:07am
He definitely has what it takes to win the Cup with this horse. He has the horse to do it and he has the ability.

I agree it's a slight concern how early this horse is up and winning but, if any horse can do it, it's PDL. When fresh he can sprint/mile with the best and when he's fit, look out because he accelerates at the end of a 2500m race like the Cav at the end of 1000m!

She's Archie showed he knows what he's doing and I'd suggest he's a better trainer now than he was then.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pazman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 12:20am
She's Archie was a different kind of horse and had no weight. Brew like.

Just a worry that eventhough a prolific winner in the bush, success in the black type races have been far and few. Seems he has trouble aiming for a race and rathers winning everything in between.

I have to after some careful consideration, say no.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 12:25am
But doesn't this horse prove he can train black type winners when he has the horse flesh? The guy hasn't exactly been blessed with good horses that looked to underachieve in his care.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 2:20am
Originally posted by Pazman Pazman wrote:

Concerns that Weir is trying to mould PDL into a WFA horse from the run back. From his form OS, he is not WFA and this will compromise his stamina or the Cup. If he fails to mould hm into a WFA, then he won't win again this Spring.



What the bloody hell is a WFA horse.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 2:23am
She's Archies daughter is the best horse Darren Weir will ever train.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Keefy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 2:27am
if you play up. that's fine.. you just have to show up.. I'd rather the grey be be kept quiet for a while.. cos I'm flying over to watch cox plate. I'm not sure Melbourne Cup is its race.
D. Weir be drinkin whiskey not lookin at this forum. too busy wid horses yo
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 7:32am
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by Pazman Pazman wrote:

Concerns that Weir is trying to mould PDL into a WFA horse from the run back. From his form OS, he is not WFA and this will compromise his stamina or the Cup. If he fails to mould hm into a WFA, then he won't win again this Spring.



What the bloody hell is a WFA horse.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING.


Surprised it took you so long to reply. That alert button on your computer must have broken due to over-use.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hot2Trot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 8:15am
I previously raised my concerns about Weir training PDL to win the Melbourne Cup so understand where Paz is coming from.  On the positive side, I consider Weir to be a competent trainer, and he did train She's Archie to run second in the MC.  However what concerns me most is that he will ask PDL to go straight from the CP to the MC without a run beyond 2040m.  This means he has to get the horse fit mainly through trackwork.  This is an artform.  Bart can do it.  Team Williams can do it.  The European trainers can do it.  But can Weir do it?  Not saying he definitely can't, but I have my reservations.  It is a huge challenge for him.  By putting the mileage into PDL's legs he runs the risk of the horse not being keen enough over 2040m for the CP (like Green Moon).  If he does too much he may be jaded for the MC.  If he doesn't does not enough he may not be seasoned enough.  Time will tell.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelbourneRacing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 8:29am
I rate Weir very highly and I think he's proven over the last 18 months that he is improving at his placement of horses at metropolitan meetings.

Forget his strike rate in the country, because he has a lot of slow horses that owners are happy to pay for, but his city strike rate has improved dramatically.

In 2012-13, Darren Weir had 264 metropolitan starters for 37 wins at a strike rate of 14, which was about the same as Moody, Snowden, Freedman and O'Brien, and better than Hayes and Price.

The standout, though, was profit on turnover.

Weir had an astonishing 21.4 per cent profit on turnover, up -12.6 on the previous season.

The only other major trainer to have a positive POT figure was Freedman, with half the figure at 10.9%.

Statistics can lie, but I think that Weir is now getting a lot smarter with his city assaults. When they go to town, they are not there for the run.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 8:53am
Originally posted by Hot2Trot Hot2Trot wrote:



I previously raised my concerns about Weir training PDL to win the Melbourne Cup so understand where Paz is coming from.  On the positive side, I consider Weir to be a competent trainer, and he did train She's Archie to run second in the MC.  However what concerns me most is that he will ask PDL to go straight from the CP to the MC without a run beyond 2040m.  This means he has to get the horse fit mainly through trackwork.  This is an artform.  Bart can do it.  Team Williams can do it.  The European trainers can do it.  But can Weir do it?  Not saying he definitely can't, but I have my reservations.  It is a huge challenge for him.  By putting the mileage into PDL's legs he runs the risk of the horse not being keen enough over 2040m for the CP (like Green Moon).  If he does too much he may be jaded for the MC.  If he doesn't does not enough he may not be seasoned enough.  Time will tell.


Bart can do it??? Are you sure? He was all about getting 10,000m into their legs before the Cup. He is no doubt a master, but he was all about racing his horses to get them fit.
Any city trainer is at a disadvantage to get horses fit through trackwork alone. Lloyd has his property, Weir is luckier, he has 2. His Ballarat stable (great for hill work) and his Warrnambool beach stable. He has had a year to plan, there are no excuses.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hot2Trot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 9:36am
Fair points Subastral.  Bart won the MC with Saintly coming off the CP, but Saintly had run in the Metrop over 2400m.  So You Think hadn't run below 2040m, but he only ran third in the MC.  That Weir has his own property to train on is an advantage.  Ditto the beach.  I perhaps am more concerned about Weir overdoing it than the horse not being fit enough.  I'm not a horse trainer, but I suspect overtraining is as big an issue in getting a horse in condition to win a MC as undertraining.  Bart used to get them just right for the first Tuesday in November.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 9:45am
The horse trials on the CP at B'rat on Sat. with Boss on, apparently he's done a bit too well Wink
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Mental Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 9:50am
Considering how many horses bart has had in the cup over the years his strike rate is actually abysmal.

Weir will be fine. Great trainer who knows exactly how to peak a horse. Good luck to him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Ernest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 9:59am

For those who are worried about a horse winning in August, someone pointed out on one of the other forums that Americain, in 2010, "won on July 8, July 30, and August 22"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Ernest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 10:04am
Not only that, in the same year, the runner-up (Maluckyday) won on August 24 and the third placegetter (So You Think) won on August 28 - making it a trifecta for August winners Smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote RoosterCogburn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 10:04am
Originally posted by Mental Mental wrote:

Considering how many horses bart has had in the cup over the years his strike rate is actually abysmal.

Weir will be fine. Great trainer who knows exactly how to peak a horse. Good luck to him.


Mental said something positive about a trainer, and sent well wishes! Shocked Shocked Shocked
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Voss Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 10:31am
Originally posted by Pazman Pazman wrote:

She's Archie was a different kind of horse and had no weight. Brew like.

Just a worry that eventhough a prolific winner in the bush, success in the black type races have been far and few. Seems he has trouble aiming for a race and rathers winning everything in between.

I have to after some careful consideration, say no.


Disagree.

IMO he gets every last bit of ability out of most of them.

He isn't always blessed with the quality bred stock that go through the yards of the big city trainers.

The raid he made on SA with Platelet shows how shrewd he can be.

He'll often take horses over to SA for easier races and good prize money.

Broken + Clang and Bang looked well at MV on Saturday too.

If it wasn't for the Diva we'd be sitting here all talking about how we know he can train them for the Cup because he has trained a previous winner.

I've backed up my confidence with a bit on PDL fixed. :)


 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 10:46am
If you can train a second place to MD at your only go then yes, dummy, you can train the winner.Wacko
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hot2Trot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 12:34pm
Yes, I query the "has trouble setting for a race" theory.  He set PDL for the Bendigo Cup last spring and won it by 8 lengths.  His 2nd with All Archie in the MC is further evidence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 12:49pm
She's Archie would have won if not for a miracle Glen Boss ride on Makybe Diva.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote princerubiton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 1:40pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

She's Archie would have won if not for a miracle Glen Boss ride on Makybe Diva.


I have a problem with this. The champs have no excuses, they are winners. She's Archie wouldn't have beaten her luck or no luck 100 times over.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 1:49pm
Please!
Makybe Diva got a miracle run weaving a passage through the entire field and won by a length. If you don't think she was lucky to win you need to reassess the way you analyse races.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote James Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2013 at 2:00pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Please!
Makybe Diva got a miracle run weaving a passage through the entire field and won by a length. If you don't think she was lucky to win you need to reassess the way you analyse races.

You make your own luck. She had a champion jockey on board and that was the difference.
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