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Cracksman |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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It's funny seeing how good Dettori is overseas. I would not put him on in a capacity field canterbury maiden- he'd fark it up.
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patsy fagan
Champion Joined: 28 Oct 2011 Location: London/Sydney Status: Offline Points: 364 |
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For starters anyone putting down Frankel is just being silly the horse was a sprinter miler who Henry Cecil said wouldve won the July Cup..he was never going to run over 2400m and it was a credit to the trainer that we saw him over 2000m.
Secondly Highland Reel 4 years ago on his start before coming to Australia was a 16/1 5th of 8 in Ireland beaten around 5 lengths by Golden Horn..he was not an elite 2090m horse at he time and Im not sure he ever was.A big striding dour horse who needed a long straight to outstay opponents,a 2400m specialist,whats relevant is that he was beaten by Criterion that day.At his best years later he was 2 to 3 lengths minimum superior to Criterion even over 2000m. The point about Septimus is completely irrelevant the horse was ridden atrociously and was lame and nearly died,never to race again.Europe has proved beyond any doubt how far superior their stayers are in the melbourne cup. Winx v cracksman v enable etc Winx is a miler 2000m horse,Cracksman and Enable can win ocer 2000m but 2400m is their distance.Totally different horses, like Frankel Winx could win a July Cup and youd think Cracksman could win a melbourne cup if he didnt have 62kgs on his back. As far as comparing jurisdictions blind freddie must realise that horses like Gailo Chop and Hartnell would not be the 2nd best wfa horse in Europe the depth in Australian middle distance racing is non existant..if Winx retired right now Gailo Chop would be the best 2000m wfa horse in Australasia and thats a tragedy really. But that doesnt mean Winx isnt a freak , she is , but to me its like watching Dustin Johnson winning on the aussie tour every week by12, amazing but youd be saying how much youd like to see him on the pgatour to test himself. Winx has outgrown Australian middle distance racing. Over a mile nothing gets near her anywhere currentky theres no canford cliffs no kongsman no frankel no goldikova but over 2000m plus Cracksman and Enable are in a different league to anything shes ever faced. |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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I was talking about potential champ djebel - when he gets the runs on the board. Two G1s is no basis for that label. A handful more is an entirely different matter. I wonder what rating they'd have given VAIN?
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Some Poms have been known to enjoy the sunshine, better food and lifestyle down under Patsy, so much so that they stay . How's your swing these days?
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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Patsy says the obvious truth- Euro middle distance horses here who compete against Winx were G2 at best back home. Do the Aussie trainers improve them markedly on what they were at home? Maybe there is a little of that, but if Aussie trainers were any good at improving stayers, why can't they do it with AU/NZ breds?
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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You can't see the forest for the trees. When considering times run, all these conditions are considered as to why one days times are "on fire" and other days very slow . or --- why track bias comes into play. There is many hours a day, every day , goes into "form study" and it is amazing how , The more study the luckier we become. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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May I suggest the Aussie Punters prefer races to 1600m and the Tab holds support that. Personally I have little interest in watching half paced plodders canter around. Pacemakers hahaha, A few Hurdles or fences create some spectacle but give me our Sprinting races to bet on any day. Maybe the prize money is so pizz poor overseas for that very reason. We have our Melbourne Cup which has a world wide interest, but really , what is it ? A glorified Welter. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Patsy has returned from a spell . He doesn't go well first up. Still making excuses for Septimus. He was one slow horse . |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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He is already a champion. That was officially sanctioned last year. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Because ALL group 1 horses have speed, If an Aussie trainer has a unproven group 1 horse in their stable that horse will almost certainly be the fastest horse in the stable over any trip. So what do they think they have on their hands ? |
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reductio ad absurdum
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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Let me start by saying that Cracksman is a very good horse.
Winx is a great horse. Unlike many here i do not trust times as an overall perception of how good a race or horse is. Like Atreus I believe in looking at margins...but in context, allowing for many different factors. But to play with the margins way of looking at form and relative abilities, let's look at Cracksmans latest win where he beat Cloth of Stars by 4.75L. Cloth of Stars. Cloth of Stars has raced Talismanic 3 times- beating him 0.4 L, 1.25L and being beaten by 1.75L. For all intents and purposes Cloth of Stars and Talismanic are fairly equal in ability. Highland Reel has met Talismanic 3 times. HR has beat T by 1.6L and 17.3L and was beaten once by T by 0.75L. If we disregard the extent of the large margin and reduce the defeat to the previous 1.6L we can conservatively say that HR is a length better than T. Extrapolating HR is 1L better than Cloth of Stars. Which then places Cracksman as 3.75L better than HR. HR was beaten 5.5L by Winx. Therefore Winx is 1.75L better than Cracksman. No shame in that as Cracksman is young enough to improve further but let's wait and see how good he'll become and the thing I like is that he wasn't rushed off to stud after his 3yo career which is refreshing to see.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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patsy fagan
Champion Joined: 28 Oct 2011 Location: London/Sydney Status: Offline Points: 364 |
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Kav thats crazy because Cracksman was first up for 6 months and is much better over 2400m than 2000m..
Thats why this latest effort was so good because its nowhere near what he is capable of currently. Why are we comparing a 2400m horse to a miler.. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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How is he much better at 2400m ? He is perfectly suitable over both trips. His two best wins by far have been at 2000m and 2100m. Both Cracksman and Winx are superstars at 2000m. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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patsy fagan
Champion Joined: 28 Oct 2011 Location: London/Sydney Status: Offline Points: 364 |
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It’s good thanks mate,love Australia :) |
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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You can't see the forest for the trees.You can't read a form guide so it doesn't matter how long you study it.
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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Patsy, I was posting tongue in cheek because Atreus original post used raw margins and gave no semblance to any other variables. You can make times tell you anything you want and you can also make margins work out in your favour. And as for Cracksman being 1st up-granted. But in almost every one of her wins Winx cruised and could have gone faster including the Cox Plate where she beat HR.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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In the same stable as Enable- that will be interesting.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Juddmonte have thrown out the challenge and hope to meet him in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in July. Cracksman is not defended a massive winning record and should I doubt connections are afraid of a challenge. They may not want to bottom him out though early in the season. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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patsy fagan
Champion Joined: 28 Oct 2011 Location: London/Sydney Status: Offline Points: 364 |
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I’ve never typed a horses name so much as Highland Reel lol..
It’s 4 years ago I think it’s time she met a different and better Euro by now. |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Nice exaggeration there Patsy - it was Oct 2015 and none of Europe's best has been game to come since. Can't blame them after they watched her demolish a field containing horses which had run not far behind a horse you may have heard of - Solow. As I've said previously, a defeat at the hands of a mare from the southern hemisphere wouldn't have looked good on the CV. It wouldn't be so bad now since the ratings people -including to their discredit, Timeform Au - have grudgingly conceded her true ability. Any rising 7 year old champions in Europe?
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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Sure, would be great to see her vs Cracksman or Enable. Cox Plate, Emirates or HK end of year but doubt they would travel that far despite the prizemoney just as Winx won't go the Arc for the prizemoney. No point going to UK for prizemoney-let's be honest, so either Paris or HK is only possible meeting point and unless one of the two Europeans lose their gloss they are unlikely to come to HK and Winx will not go to Paris. So before anyone says one is dodging the other let's say that the Euros are not going out of their way to challenge Winx.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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patsy fagan
Champion Joined: 28 Oct 2011 Location: London/Sydney Status: Offline Points: 364 |
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I disagree Djebel his main targets are all the top 2400m races and he’s a horse with a huge stride, Euro 2000m races might suit as its more stamina sapping but to me he just looks a powerhouse of a stayer.
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Morston
Champion Joined: 01 Aug 2011 Status: Offline Points: 704 |
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But, not so long ago, on a thread about whether Winx should travel to Ascot, there were many posts about how travel can take it out of a horse and how they may not perform at their best, therefore she should not go.....yet Euro horses are supposed to go to Australia and always perform at their best, and are judged on those performances....a case of double standards it seems |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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His next two targets are 2000m races, He may not see 2400m until the Arc. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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All Pom migrants are the 2nd best lololol , Not only the horses.
There's another black eye for me. I have a lot of friends in Pommy land . Have a family 20 Mile from London CBD, visiting in July . Haven't seen them since I housed about 9 of the insane B's ( Rugby supporters) in 2003. I paid a terrible price over that Wilkinson kick . It was great fun tho , It was a time to remember. |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Probably true Morston (the posts bit) but for the most part the comments have usually been the other way in regard to our champs, mostly from locals I suspect. I acknowledge the difficulty of travel, just enjoy turning the argument around when it suits (the "truth" is somewhere in between no doubt). One of those Solow placers which Winx left in her wake improved enough to win the Mckinnon at his next start iirc. Europeans - sorry can't say that now, try Brits - arguing that Winx need to go OS to prove her worth (there are very few) have an exaggerated superiority complex. Aussies who do the same (there are more, but again not many) are cultural cringers. Sweeping statement but hey it's par for the course isn't it?
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Morston
Champion Joined: 01 Aug 2011 Status: Offline Points: 704 |
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Fair enough I think it is pointless trying to compare horses from different hemispheres...there are so many differences...just compare courses, for a start: my local courses, the two at Newmarket, have straights of 2000m and 1600m and are wide open spaces, both with an uphill finish...they are a world apart from the tight, turning Australian tracks where all the runners aim for the rail....this must have an effect on the horses, and there are many other variables. Also, I just don’t hear these discussions over here....what happens to Winx seems of little importance to racegoers here....it seems to be an Australian thing to constantly compare and I don’t know why?? Still...it makes for some discussion and banter |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Morston.. the inferior complex. ??? Or maybe Patsy Fagan ruffles our feathers.
Travelling didn't seem to stop the Reel from battering them in the Hong Kong vase , a few weeks after Winx handed out a galloping lesson. Winx is the best in the World , or any other small Country Town. If you doubt that .... Just ask me again .... |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Agree. Comparing hemispheres is easier now horses travel more but it's not definitive. We can acknowledge certain things but beyond that it's hypothetical at best. Even worse trying to compare champs from other eras. With few exceptions we have vanilla courses, a focus on short course racing, and too many G1s which allow horses to avoid each other. UK's courses are far more interesting and daresay challenging.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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A very nice turn of phrase that Macca . Being World Champ would also entitle her to the PC (Planetary Champ) belt, the SSC belt, and probably the GC belt.
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