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Climate Change-Punting Warning

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scamanda View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jul 2017 at 11:19pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Not trading max....dutching the field taking advantage of the inflated prices pre post


it can't be described in just one post aye. But if anyone wants to put the time and effort in to exploring the strategies they WILL win in the end.

Ignore greed. Discipline is the key. Greening out at a moderate profit or even loss and not try to scoop the pool.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jul 2017 at 11:27pm
Yes a lot of time and dedication reading articles and watching races all over the world to sort out months in advance who is coming and who isn't and knowing when to trade out when it appears likely one wont Trick is to not be left holding any non starters
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max manewer View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jul 2017 at 11:28pm
I can't see any strategy that does not depend on accurate ( more accurate than random) price movement prediction. Otherwise you will be left holding the baby, too often to show a profit.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jul 2017 at 11:40pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

I can't see any strategy that does not depend on accurate ( more accurate than random) price movement prediction. Otherwise you will be left holding the baby, too often to show a profit.


Unless you're ahead of the market.
Do some research max.
If you want to win.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jul 2017 at 11:43pm
Being ahead of the market is being more accurate in price movement prediction. Who skims the over-round, Betfair themselves ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 12:55am
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Being ahead of the market is being more accurate in price movement prediction. Who skims the over-round, Betfair themselves ?


Being ahead is correct max..     Like noting Horses that you consider will take the class rises when carnival time comes .

Saw one on Saturday ..    short price but won nicely, I have it noted for the 3 Y/O races come Spring . It Will Probably have a break now .
McEvoy Trained ROYAL SYMPHONY

Who knows when the markets open ...   It may be 200/1 for the 3 Y/O races.....     1000/1 for the Cox Plate.
What Scamanda is talking about is back some of these with thought and If they perform OK in lead ups, you may lay them back much shorter.
There is a lot of study & record keeping involved.

      Royal Symphony is pretty smart in 3 winter 2 Y/O races to 1600.

Now In the black book with many others
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 8:19pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:


I find that whilst break-even is not that difficult, much advance beyond that is difficult, and the bets too few.

 

I totally disagree with this statement Maxi.   

The key to winning longterm is maintaining your betting bank and building it gradually, over time.
The key to that, is breaking even, or maintaining your betting bank, then anything over that is profit.

If you selections allow you to consistently breakeven, then effectively, you are winning 15%, on a 100 market consistently, over time, as the bookies / tote market is set to around 128%.

The only reason you would be losing, or struggling to win, is you have to be staking incorrectly, 
which is causing you to lose.

Your selections themselves, turn a profit.  That should be an easy problem to fix.

At the very least, your betting bank would fluctuate up and down due to variance due to differences in run of outs.  At the very least, there would be times when you could stop betting for the day, and turn a profit, as your bank would be up as many times as it is down, if you are continually hitting breakeven.

Get some consistency in your staking, and I guarantee, you will also get some consistency in turning your breakeven into a profit.








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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 8:20pm

The number of bets you need to have on any given day is a completely different issue, and I can't help you with that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 8:29pm
Firstly, staking is not the issue, just value, and as I say you have to turn over money to make it worthwhile. If you have a method that only produces 3 bets a day, and the prospective return is around 5% profit, to make $100 you need to turn over $2000. If the average odds is $6, you are placing a bet of $670....more than enough to knock 5% off your odds.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 8:57pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:


Firstly, staking is not the issue, just value, and as I say you have to turn over money to make it worthwhile. If you have a method that only produces 3 bets a day, and the prospective return is around 5% profit, to make $100 you need to turn over $2000. If the average odds is $6, you are placing a bet of $670....more than enough to knock 5% off your odds.


Ah, OK Maxi.  We obviously bet completely differently.
I don't bet unless I am making minimum 50% profit on a race, no matter how many horses I bet.

Had 33 bets last week, and 27 the week before.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 8:59pm
Its funny - whenever I see these type of threads it always seems to get bogged down in the theory. Whilst I understand getting value (overs) + having a good staking plan is important....the hardest task is coming up with a "consistent" process to find winners. Yet the above suggests this is just a given. The better punters I know are great form analysts...& just as importantly very disciplined. They can walk away from a losing day & not "chase". Not sure value/ staking can ever turn a bad selection into a winning outcome (although it can reduce the damage I suppose).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 9:17pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:


Its funny - whenever I see these type of threads it always seems to get bogged down in the theory. Whilst I understand getting value (overs) + having a good staking plan is important....the hardest task is coming up with a "consistent" process to find winners. Yet the above suggests this is just a given. The better punters I know are great form analysts...& just as importantly very disciplined. They can walk away from a losing day & not "chase". Not sure value/ staking can ever turn a bad selection into a winning outcome (although it can reduce the damage I suppose).


100 out of 100 One One .      You covered the whole show.

1st base is eliminate the ones you think Can't win ( by your well educated judgement )      Quite often as Scamanda says , you may be surprised at what is left and the prices available .     Not unusual for good books to have 3 or 4 carrying your money.
A successful Punter we know ,   Trades , Dutch books , and is a great believer in pick em to win = back em to place.   ( betfair )
   I believe the hardest things on the punt = in order=
Self Control,     Patience ,     bet to your available Bank,
Dedication to Form study , keep records .        > It is like learning to ride a bicycle....     take your time as most falls come early.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 9:50pm
I look for potential big divs, value or otherwise so now operate on $20+ longshot win bets, quinellas & exactas, which seems to have been working well for the past 4 months having built the bank from $100 to a tad over $2k.
I bet by the seat of my pants in the last few minutes, using Expertform, Racenet selections, betting movements & result trends on the day.
Average outlay per race is $20 but can go to $50 & when I'm down a few hundred my exotics & win bets go from $5 to $10 per unit so if I can manage a $40 - $60+ divvy, I'm back well in front again LOL
Value is in the eyes of the beholder & in my case it's large divs.
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 9:56pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

I look for potential big divs, value or otherwise so now operate on $20+ longshot win bets, quinellas & exactas, which seems to have been working well for the past 4 months having built the bank from $100 to a tad over $2k.
I bet by the seat of my pants in the last few minutes, using Expertform, Racenet selections, betting movements & result trends on the day.
Average outlay per race is $20 but can go to $50 & when I'm down a few hundred my exotics & win bets go from $5 to $10 per unit so if I can manage a $40 - $60+ divvy, I'm back well in front again LOL
Value is in the eyes of the beholder & in my case it's large divs.
You sound like my type of gal Gay !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jul 2017 at 10:04pm
Betfair is Heaven if your avoiding the Ist Couple in the market .
The longer the price the further they drift out.

As "allo allo"   would say , The excitement isn't good for my
dikky tikka.
    
      That sort of excitement anyway.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2017 at 8:22am
Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

I'm pessimistic about the future but I don't think we're there yet.

Present day, present time, still easy to win.

TABCORP will bring about the death of wagering on horse racing.

As soon as we get a National Tote Pool, that will be the end of best of 3 totes, and you will lose a further competitive edge, that the corporate bookmaker currently offer.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Luva Punt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2017 at 9:39am
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

You'd have to think where the corps are forced to bet to a minimum, they will adjust through price. If not now, then later, as they see how affected they are. They certainly will adjust odds in the face of rising levies and taxes too. This latter has convinced me, the party is well and truly over.


At times, there is also absolutely no value with the fixed odds available also.

It is a constant battle to find the better of the fixed odds offering and the tote.

Combine that with being offered reduced odds when you place a bet, or even missing a bet because the odds change and you don't get your bet on, and racing as a wagering option is slowly losing its lustre.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2017 at 12:29pm
I'd say just about lost its lustre, LP. I read elsewhere that big betting syndicates employ teams of analysts, yet almost all their profit derives from rebates.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brudder_A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Jan 2019 at 7:49am
Im hijacking this thread since I can't find any other one that jumps out at me at Google search.

ABC Article

How betting agencies restrict punters who win too often or too much



Punters and anti-gambling advocates have hit out at betting agencies for restricting or shutting down the accounts of people who win too often.

In a little-known strategy to prevent paying out too much to the same winning punters, operators simply restrict how much they can bet or close them down altogether.

There is nothing illegal about it and the right to do it is written into agencies' terms and conditions, but anti-gambling advocates say such conduct is unethical and should be illegal.

"The sports betting companies are utterly immoral and predatory," Tim Costello, spokesman for the Alliance for Gambling Reform, told the ABC.

"They have real-time data of who's winning and they will block people who are winning.

"They have real-time data of large amounts of money being bet, maybe at 3:00am, knowing a person might have bipolar [disorder] or might be sleepless and they won't block them."

Matthew* has been betting on racing and sports for years and said he had been restricted by almost all Australian-licensed agencies.

"Once each company identifies you as a winning customer or basically as non-profitable for them, they will restrict or effectively ban you from betting with them," he told the ABC.

"It's often done, not necessarily after being a long-term winner, but after a few bets."
Same bets, same time, different outcome

He provided the ABC with vision and photos of the same bet being placed with the same agency at the same time from two different accounts.
A composite photo shows two computer screens with the same bets being placed, but one is rejected.

In the first example, Sportsbet allows a $20 bet on a greyhound race in South Australia from an unrestricted account.

But as Matthew tries the same bet from his account he is advised that "an error occurred" and told to try again later or contact customer service.

"I think it should be a level playing field. If they offer that product to one person it should be available to everyone," he said.

In another example, this time with bet365, an unrestricted account is allowed to place a $16 bet on a harness race in Queensland, while the same bet from his own account placed at the same time is rejected for being "above the maximum" bet amount.

    "I find it pretty outrageous that they prey on unsuccessful punters or people with gambling problems … while anyone who shows a little bit of intelligence with their betting isn't allowed those same opportunities," Matthew said.

Sportsbet would not answer questions about why it restricted accounts but a spokesperson said: "Sportsbet complies with minimum bet limits as directed by racing and sporting governing bodies."

The ABC contacted bet365 for comment but did not get a response.
A composite photo shows two computer screens with the same bets being placed, but one is rejected.
Calls for universal minimum bet laws

Matthew said a solution to the issue would be to implement minimum bet limits across the country, forcing agencies to accept bets up to a certain minimum winning amount.

It's an idea supported by RMIT's Dr Anna Thomas, who was the joint author of a report for the Federal Government in 2017 into betting restrictions and online wagering in Australia.
Aussies world's biggest gambling losers
Aussies world's biggest gambling losers
It is said Australians love a punt, but you'd wonder why given we appear to be the worst at it in the world — and by a fair margin at that.

"That was one of the recommendations within our report … to do that across the board," she said.

Some racing codes and states have already implemented minimum bet rules, but they are not yet universal.

"These sorts of rules are great in creating level playing fields," Matthew said.

But he also pointed out that some agencies had already found ways to get around the minimum bets rules when they didn't want to accept a bet.

Matthew describes a process whereby he would attempt to place a bet but rather than it going straight through he would get a message that it was "pending".

A short time later he would get a message saying the bet could be accepted but at shorter odds that were no longer attractive to him.
Punters turn to illegal offshore operators
Sea Moon wins Herbert Power Stakes

For their report, Dr Thomas and co-author Dr Jennifer Podesta spoke to several punters who had experienced similar restrictions to Matthew.

The paper found people who were blocked from betting with Australian agencies would turn to illegal offshore operators, which presented a number of problems.
A close-up of a hand holdings dozens of TAB betting slips.

"First, there are control and protection issues related to under- or un-regulated offshore sites in terms of adequate consumer protections, the potential for fraud, money-laundering and sporting integrity issues (e.g. match-fixing)," the report said.

"Second, there is the issue of a loss of revenue to governments and sporting bodies through taxes, license and product fees and to Australian businesses through loss of customers."

Gamblers are known to then use operators in Asia, Europe and the US, which is illegal — not for the punter, but for the operator, because they are not licensed in Australia.

One punter told the ABC he had to be prepared to accept that sometimes he may not be paid out by dubious overseas operators.
Restricted even while losing
Someone places a bet and hands over cash at the Melbourne Cup.

Another punter the ABC spoke to said he had experienced issues with betting operators closing him down when he didn't use bonus bets or promotions in the way the agencies had wanted.

"They offer you significant sign up bonuses along with various matched deposit bonuses," he said.

"This is to keep you turning over money and therefore getting addicted, without necessarily using your own money."
live odds gambling betting
Photo: There are calls for urgent reforms to the Australian gambling industry.

He said it was relatively easy to make that money work for you through safe bets then withdraw it once you had bet with it the required amount of times.

"Australian betting companies are hypocritical in that they offer you bonus after bonus after bonus if you leave your own money in your account, but ban you if you withdraw to zero as soon as you win [with promotional money]."

Other punters spoke of cases of being restricted even while losing money once an operator had determined your strategy would not be profitable for them.

All of Australia's major betting agencies are known for restricting certain accounts.

They argue that their business models would not be sustainable if they allowed people to win too much.

Mr Costello told the ABC urgent reforms were needed across the gambling industry in Australia, which is number one in the world per capita for gambling losses.

"The gambling environment in Australia at the moment is utterly out of control," he said.


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