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Chris Waller

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 12:42pm
So Waller has 84 winners in NSW, and 36 in other states..??, that seems an awful lot outside of NSW for someone who only trains in Syd and has only had the melb yard for a year...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pazman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:04pm
Who was this Captain Marvel who saw the talent in Waller?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rhino Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:07pm
[QUOTE=Fiddlesticks]So Waller has 84 winners in NSW, and 36 in other states..??, that seems an awful lot outside of NSW for someone who only trains in Syd and has only had the melb yard for a year

84 in Sydney Metro
20 in Provincial / Country NSW
17 Interstate

121 in total
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lordy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:13pm
786 starts already this season.  Thats an insane number.  Strike rate of around 15% is reasonable too considering the numbers.  

Would need to run a very efficient operation to maintain quality with that volume.  Must have some excellent staff too. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:15pm
If Zoustar was with another stable. I'm pretty certain he would have been well placed and targeted for the rich Autumn 2yo races. 
 
IMO would have won the slipper sold as a $30M+ stallion prospect. The market wants that.  
 
So it can work against him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:24pm
Maybe Zoustar was not mature enough as an early autumn 2yo?? Horses are not machines...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote racinglover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:27pm
Waller's strike rate is invariably brought down by him having a few runners in each race. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:34pm
Originally posted by Group 1 Selections Group 1 Selections wrote:

Maybe Zoustar was not mature enough as an early autumn 2yo?? Horses are not machines...
 
As a 2yo, he trialled in December, short let up for 11 weeks then trialled twice in March and raced mid April.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:40pm
Originally posted by Gee Gee Gee Gee wrote:

Originally posted by Group 1 Selections Group 1 Selections wrote:

Maybe Zoustar was not mature enough as an early autumn 2yo?? Horses are not machines...

 




As a 2yo, he trialled in December, short let up for 11 weeks then trialled twice in March and raced mid April.   


Exactly, so rather then punch the work into him and rush him to have him ready for the most frantic 2yo race in the world, Waller may have decided he would have a more robust horse with Group wins at 2yo and 3yo and against open age horses.

To say Zoustar would have won a Golden Slipper without knowing that horses stage of development as a very new colt is foolish let alone to blame it on an extremely efficient stables size.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:48pm
Obviously waller flogs his horses double the starters for similar size stables.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 1:59pm
Originally posted by racinglover racinglover wrote:

Waller's strike rate is invariably brought down by him having a few runners in each race. 
I disagree.
Having  a few runners in each race has invariably increased his strike rate.Weight of numbers increase chances of a winner. Also there are many instances where his runner wouldn't have won if it were not for the presence of his other runners in the race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote racinglover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 2:11pm
No doubt there's some logic in that Kavg, but I'd be very surprised if the numbers supported that theory.

Weight of numbers increases the number of winners but I really think it has the opposite effect on strike rate.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Flight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 2:33pm
Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:


Originally posted by Flight Flight wrote:

The move by Star Thoroughbreds makes total sense.

It's not about two year olds. It's about horses having a racing career.

Whatever they win at two is a bonus, not the highlight.


True, i'm sure they despise the fact they've had so many 2 year old winners with Gai. LOL


You think Kembla maiden prize money will cover the training fees? How many horses do they syndicate every year? A dozen? They have been around since 1994 so that is a lot of horses that have passed through that yard providing they made it that far. Yet their Hall of Fame is not crammed with two year old winners. A few did win good races as juveniles however the majority paid their way as older horses.

Driefontein
Sebring
Theseo
Danglissa
Whittington
Kingsgate
Bank Robber
Stoway
Squamosa
Flaming
Ariante
Kinnersley
Dashing Scene
Raceway
Primrose Sands

Four of those were decent two year olds.

Winning a mid week two year old race does not add that much to the stud value of a filly and certainly does not help out the geldings in later life.

So, if you think that she has won that many races with two year olds and connections have firstly recouped the purchase price and then covered all expenses, please list the horses so we all know what you know.

Apart from the ones listed above, I really can't think of any.








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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Flight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 2:37pm
Originally posted by mowie mowie wrote:

ehh so he claims you shouldn't push young horses an yet he still has had alot of two year olds go around this season haha deary me.


There is a huge difference between racing two year olds on natural ability and placing them under pressure.

Just watch the horses in a race. It is easy to spot the one running on fear being pressured to keep going and the one lopping along with its ears pricked.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 2:52pm
Originally posted by Lordy Lordy wrote:

786 starts already this season.  Thats an insane number.  Strike rate of around 15% is reasonable too considering the numbers.  

Would need to run a very efficient operation to maintain quality with that volume.  Must have some excellent staff too. 


incredible numbers, that's why I keep questioning them, just astronomical how many starters they have...that's not a stable, it's a machine..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 2:54pm
Originally posted by racinglover racinglover wrote:

No doubt there's some logic in that Kavg, but I'd be very surprised if the numbers supported that theory.

Weight of numbers increases the number of winners but I really think it has the opposite effect on strike rate.


eg: 4 runners in a race and 1 wins it, that does nothing positive for the strike rate at all period...


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Yea and also if you have 3-4 runners in a race and run into a red hot favourite that bolts in (from another stable) your strike rate drops a lot more than if you have 1 in the race.

The point being that having more than 1 runner doesn't really increase the chance of winning in some cases, it just the hurts the strike rate.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 5:40pm
Originally posted by kavg kavg wrote:

Originally posted by racinglover racinglover wrote:

Waller's strike rate is invariably brought down by him having a few runners in each race. 
I disagree.
Having  a few runners in each race has invariably increased his strike rate.Weight of numbers increase chances of a winner. Also there are many instances where his runner wouldn't have won if it were not for the presence of his other runners in the race.

Twaddle ... your math teacher should be in jail for receiving money under false pretences!LOL
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 5:55pm
Originally posted by Flight Flight wrote:

Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:


Originally posted by Flight Flight wrote:

The move by Star Thoroughbreds makes total sense.

It's not about two year olds. It's about horses having a racing career.

Whatever they win at two is a bonus, not the highlight.


True, i'm sure they despise the fact they've had so many 2 year old winners with Gai. LOL


You think Kembla maiden prize money will cover the training fees? How many horses do they syndicate every year? A dozen? They have been around since 1994 so that is a lot of horses that have passed through that yard providing they made it that far. Yet their Hall of Fame is not crammed with two year old winners. A few did win good races as juveniles however the majority paid their way as older horses.

Driefontein
Sebring
Theseo
Danglissa
Whittington
Kingsgate
Bank Robber
Stoway
Squamosa
Flaming
Ariante
Kinnersley
Dashing Scene
Raceway
Primrose Sands

Four of those were decent two year olds.

Winning a mid week two year old race does not add that much to the stud value of a filly and certainly does not help out the geldings in later life.

So, if you think that she has won that many races with two year olds and connections have firstly recouped the purchase price and then covered all expenses, please list the horses so we all know what you know.

Apart from the ones listed above, I really can't think of any.









They normally buy more than 25 at the sales, and they are clearly tired of paying $3,000 to identify each one, overs to have them in work, so they can watch them trial and eat sausage sandwiches on a sunday, then when they actually run in a race a couple of times a year, if they fluke a win, fork out 15%, and then if they don't stand up to the "treatment" and they threaten the strike rate, they are bundled off to another trainer to race at the Sapphire Coast (nice place to race your horse, if you live there!) ...
 
Simple answer is, Star's owners are so please they have sacked Gai and moved to Waller ... nothing personal, just business ... what else do you need PMfibs ...?Confused

You know the old saying, you can fool some of the people some of the time ... Wink
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Ernest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 6:42pm
Originally posted by Pazman Pazman wrote:

Who was this Captain Marvel who saw the talent in Waller?


I don't know about anyone else, but Chris Waller reminds the hell out of me of Robert De Niro's character in Casino
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 7:01pm
Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:

Originally posted by racinglover racinglover wrote:

No doubt there's some logic in that Kavg, but I'd be very surprised if the numbers supported that theory.

Weight of numbers increases the number of winners but I really think it has the opposite effect on strike rate.


eg: 4 runners in a race and 1 wins it, that does nothing positive for the strike rate at all period...



4 runners in a race and 1 wins it is a 25% strike rate in that race. Much higher than his current strike rate. 
On an 8 race card if he had 4 runners in one race and wins it and 1 runner in each of the other 7 races and wins one of them, then he has had 11 runners for 2 winners which is a strike rate of 18.2% which is still higher than his current strike rate.

What I was trying to say is that when he has multiple runners he more often than not sets the pace up suitable for one of his runners to win-that leads to an increased strike rate, no doubt.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 7:05pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by kavg kavg wrote:

Originally posted by racinglover racinglover wrote:

Waller's strike rate is invariably brought down by him having a few runners in each race. 
I disagree.
Having  a few runners in each race has invariably increased his strike rate.Weight of numbers increase chances of a winner. Also there are many instances where his runner wouldn't have won if it were not for the presence of his other runners in the race.

Twaddle ... your math teacher should be in jail for receiving money under false pretences!LOL
DrE, I agree with your stuff re Gai but Waller needs the spotlight put on him too. As for Maths, look at my answer to Fiddle above and try and digest it before making smart a$$ comments. And I'd challenge you to a maths quiz any day.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 7:08pm
Originally posted by racinglover racinglover wrote:

Yea and also if you have 3-4 runners in a race and run into a red hot favourite that bolts in (from another stable) your strike rate drops a lot more than if you have 1 in the race.

The point being that having more than 1 runner doesn't really increase the chance of winning in some cases, it just the hurts the strike rate.


So he races horses against each other, gee thats great for the owners.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 7:23pm
Originally posted by bradjm bradjm wrote:

Originally posted by racinglover racinglover wrote:

Yea and also if you have 3-4 runners in a race and run into a red hot favourite that bolts in (from another stable) your strike rate drops a lot more than if you have 1 in the race.

The point being that having more than 1 runner doesn't really increase the chance of winning in some cases, it just the hurts the strike rate.


So he races horses against each other, gee thats great for the owners.

Maybe you should ask * Mr R H Kirby, Ms J C Sampson, Mr D Wallace, Ms V W Lee, Mr I W Patrick, Mrs S A Hardie, Mr M Townsend, Mr R M Lapointe, Team E & M Racing, Mr R W Bell what their thoughts are on that subject!Angry 
 

Anyway, Waller has been running numerous runners in races for a while, and the owners seem to be staying in droves!LOL

Pretty sure Denise's clients were aware of it before sacking the old trainer ... maybe they are just sick of having to eat sausages, just to get a glimpse of their horses? Cry


* owners of Tamariz (trainer G Waterhouse) ... $2.40 beaten favourite Canterbury Race 7 yesterday ... race won by The Baronet (trainer G Waterhouse) ... $7.50 SP.


LOLLOLLOL ... couldn't even get that one right!Wink
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote racinglover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 7:25pm
I just don't think that's the case though Kavg, although I do see the logic. If what you're saying is true then Waller would have an even poorer strike rate which I do not believe. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 8:49pm
I think you guys need a lesson in maths and probability.

His strike rate is about 1 winner for every 6 runners. It doesn't matter if he has 6 runners in 6 individual races and gets 1 winner or has 6 runners in the same race and wins it. his strike rate is the same.

To make things very simple-in a field of 6 if he has 1 runner and they all have an equal chance of winning then his chance of winning is 1 in 6. If he has 3 runners in a field of 6 with equal chances then he has a 50% chance of winning. 

If there were 3 races and he had 1 horse in each race and there were 6 horses in each race and each horse in every race had an equal chance of winning (i.e 1 in 6) then the probability of winning 1 race is 0.401 or 40.1%.
If that trainer entered his 3 horses in one of the races with 6 starters and again all starters had an equal chance of winning then he has a 50% chance of winning the race. 

Basic probability shows that the more runners in a race you have the more your overall strike rate will increase.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 9:25pm
kav you're on the persian rugs mate. It's you who needs the maths lesson.

Let me break it down for you. Yes, you are right, whether he has 6 horses in 6 races and 1 wins, or 6 horses in the 1 race and 1 wins, his strikerate is the same.

But, the key but, is if he has 6 horses in 6 races he has the chance to win 6 times. If he has all 6 horses in the one race, before the race has even begun, the best his strikerate can be by the end of the race is 1 in 6. Whereas with 6 in 6 races he can achieve up to 100%.

If you can't understand that then we should all give up and stop debating maths and get back to racing.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2014 at 10:00pm
I'm not having a go at you kav, but we are not dealing with dice here.

What happens more often than not in reality is, he has 4 Europlods in a 1600m- 2400m BM90 with a field of 9, and he trains the trifecta, but only 1 winner.

Now if there were only enough horses around to run 3 divisions of that race, he would have 3 winners!

So, his strike rate is a victim of his own success.

Thing is, all 4 of those horses seem to end up winning and placing regularly enough during a prep to keep their owners happy (and apparently make other owners envious! - NB: see Star T'breds)Wink
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Overseer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2014 at 6:12am
Fess up bradjm & PMD. Your on the Waterhouse payroll aren't you.
Watch the commission go on
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2014 at 6:29am
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

kav you're on the persian rugs mate. It's you who needs the maths lesson.

Let me break it down for you. Yes, you are right, whether he has 6 horses in 6 races and 1 wins, or 6 horses in the 1 race and 1 wins, his strikerate is the same.

But, the key but, is if he has 6 horses in 6 races he has the chance to win 6 times. If he has all 6 horses in the one race, before the race has even begun, the best his strikerate can be by the end of the race is 1 in 6. Whereas with 6 in 6 races he can achieve up to 100%.

If you can't understand that then we should all give up and stop debating maths and get back to racing.

But if he has six horses in the race of a field of 10 he has a six in ten chance of winning it (possibly more). The correct way to judge Waller is by average wins per race, not win aggregate. It's his own problem if he has 6 hoses and one live chance (which is often the case).
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