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Chris Waller

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Captain Marvel View Drop Down
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    Posted: 15 Aug 2011 at 10:32pm
Like his speech when he won the Bart Cummings Medal. Straight from the heart. May this be the first of many. Proves that you CAN succeed without drugs.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote princerubiton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2012 at 1:53pm
stable has fallen off a cliff. Strike rate horrible. Rough trot? First it was Darley who are now back in some form now these guys.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Quezacotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2012 at 1:59pm
Name one stable that doesn't go through transitional periods between carnivals...?

There isn't a stable on earth that just keeps winning week in week out, they are setting a nice team up for the QLD carnival, do they need to be winning now...?

placings everywhere yesterday, just the sort of form you'd want to see from a stable prior to a carnival.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote princerubiton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2012 at 6:02pm
quez waller had 19 winners on saturdays in a rwo last year or something along those lines. Now 5 winners from his last 100. As a punter it pays to identify these cycles and bet accordingly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Quezacotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2012 at 6:19pm
Hmmmmmm I'm not following, how can you punt according to a stable who are having a run of outs until it's happened..?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2012 at 6:21pm
Ok this is a generalisation, however:
a. top of the line trainers essentially concentrate on the Melbourne Spring and Sydney Autumn carnivals;  
 
b. the next level of mentors hope and aim for Spring and Autumn success, but concentrate rather more on Adelaide and Brisbane carnivals for their Stakes successes;
 
c. then there's those who recognise that Summer and Winter is their go, with luck the odd Listed success, particularly with the a's and b's largely off the scene except for their average or promising types; and
 
d. so it goes on down the chain.
 
So if you have a horse with the a's and b's, and are racing of-season, you'd want to be absolutely confident that it's just transitional.
 
And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price.
It's hard to soar with eagles...

Cheers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2012 at 6:21pm
He is starting up to 3 horses in each race and still finds it hard. back to the drawing board waller. need to place the horses more carefully
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2012 at 8:25pm
Mostly works in cycles as many have pointed out. Like anyone else he'd want to halt the run of outs soon though before its more than just a cycle.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Winbet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2012 at 8:32pm
Originally posted by princerubiton princerubiton wrote:

stable has fallen off a cliff. Strike rate horrible. Rough trot? First it was Darley who are now back in some form now these guys.


Who don't you bag princerubiton? First Darley now Waller yesterday after the race you bagged Hayes with Pago Rock saying "how can you guys back Pago Rock with Hayes training it" but didn't say much after Manilla Jewell won by 4.3L walking in looking like BC in doing so.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Appman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 5:05pm
Ok this is a generalisation, however:a. top of the line trainers essentially concentrate on the Melbourne Spring and Sydney Autumn carnivals;  
 
b. the next level of mentors hope and aim for Spring and Autumn success, but concentrate rather more on Adelaide and Brisbane carnivals for their Stakes successes;
 
c. then there's those who recognise that Summer and Winter is their go, with luck the odd Listed success, particularly with the a's and b's largely off the scene except for their average or promising types; and
 
d. so it goes on down the chain.
 
So if you have a horse with the a's and b's, and are racing of-season, you'd want to be absolutely confident that it's just transitional.
 
And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price.



There fitness levels should remain constant, irrespective of Hanging Rock, Rockhampton or the Melbourne Cup.
Fit horses win more races.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lomond Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 5:10pm
Without drugs?  Turn it up.
study the charts
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 5:17pm
Originally posted by Appman Appman wrote:

 
And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price.



OK, when does the buzzer sound that tells him when the "in form" happy time is starting ? Or ending ? The simple reality is that losing runs and winning streaks are are very difficult to identify positively as being indicative of "form" as opposed to normal statistical variation. And that, you can back in !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 5:17pm
"There (sic) fitness levels should remain constant, irrespective of Hanging Rock, Rockhampton or the Melbourne Cup" is surely a given Appman. 
The generalisation I made rather related to seasonal factors and the relative quality/ability of horses aimed at those particular seasons.  Which in Waller's case means most of his going around in Sydney over the next few months will either be limited or inexperienced, whereas the lower tier trainers (no disrespect intended) will frequently have their better ones going around because it's easier for them to win in Winter.  Or, in six months time, Summer.
 
 
It's hard to soar with eagles...

Cheers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 5:25pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Originally posted by Appman Appman wrote:

 
And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price.

OK, when does the buzzer sound that tells him when the "in form" happy time is starting ? Or ending ? The simple reality is that losing runs and winning streaks are are very difficult to identify positively as being indicative of "form" as opposed to normal statistical variation. And that, you can back in !
 
Well try telling that to the millionaire punter I was referring to, someone who started with virtually nothing.  A bloke who pioneered viewing every city race as many times as there were starters, watching a different horse and jockey every time, and frequently identifying jockey form irrespective of their finishing positions.
 
Suspect you're here to do little else than argue the toss rather than offering anything particularly positive.
It's hard to soar with eagles...

Cheers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Winbet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 5:36pm
Originally posted by Run For Fun Run For Fun wrote:


 
Well try telling that to the millionaire punter I was referring to, someone who started with virtually nothing.  A bloke who pioneered viewing every city race as many times as there were starters, watching a different horse and jockey every time, and frequently identifying jockey form irrespective of their finishing positions.


Run For Fun you able to mention the punters name your talking about?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 5:45pm
Originally posted by Run For Fun Run For Fun wrote:

Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Originally posted by Appman Appman wrote:

 
And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price.

OK, when does the buzzer sound that tells him when the "in form" happy time is starting ? Or ending ? The simple reality is that losing runs and winning streaks are are very difficult to identify positively as being indicative of "form" as opposed to normal statistical variation. And that, you can back in !
 
Well try telling that to the millionaire punter I was referring to, someone who started with virtually nothing.  A bloke who pioneered viewing every city race as many times as there were starters, watching a different horse and jockey every time, and frequently identifying jockey form irrespective of their finishing positions.
 
Suspect you're here to do little else than argue the toss rather than offering anything particularly positive.
So it was jockey "form" he was studying in those videos ? Without actually being that person, you wouldn't know what his modus operandi might have been. I suspect your friend got in early with video analysis and reaped the rewards, but studying videos for horse and jockey performance assessment are two very different things. The horse is carrying the jockey, not the other way round. It is vastly easier to assess how well a horse has been performing in a limited number of races than a jockey. And at the end of the day it gets down to how the markets adjust, especially with the army of video watchers around, as to where any advantage lies.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 5:54pm
Mate, couldn't possibly do that.
The most I'll say is that the bloke started off making his living by doing the multiple-watch thing about 15 years ago, and in the first instance was among three or four people selling ratings to the top echelon trainers who simply didn't have the time to do ratings themselves.  Trainers were essentially made aware of logical dangers to their own and could advise owners accordingly, and maybe in the odd instance even back a rival.
 
However he was astute enough to realise that money could also be made following in-form jockeys in particular, however the early identification of upward or downward trends (as distinct from just winners or losers) was absolutely critical to maximise his returns.
It's hard to soar with eagles...

Cheers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 5:55pm
Sorry, the above was in response to Winbet's query.
It's hard to soar with eagles...

Cheers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 6:02pm
Originally posted by Quezacotl Quezacotl wrote:

Name one stable that doesn't go through transitional periods between carnivals...?

There isn't a stable on earth that just keeps winning week in week out, they are setting a nice team up for the QLD carnival, do they need to be winning now...?

placings everywhere yesterday, just the sort of form you'd want to see from a stable prior to a carnival.


Ballydoyle ?




reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2012 at 6:05pm
Conservatively, the assessed odds of a horse would be 95% unrelated to jockey "form", whatever that might be construed as.  However, I can see a way to analyse jockey "form" that doesn't involve video watching, or raw "winners and losers", and will crank up Excel to do it when time allows, who knows, I may change my mind and be thankful for this discussion !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Appman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2012 at 7:49am
Chris Waller stable horses are not as fit as they were 6 months ago.

Traing is all about  motivation, energy levels, enthusiam, hard work and wanting to win.

Basically they cut corners and get lazy.

People will complain long enough about a poor trainer's strike rate and he will get back to the basic longer hours and harder work of how he got successful before and their horses are fitter and they will start winning.

It's called being a human.

I have seen it hundreds of times.
Fit horses win more races.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2012 at 9:41am
"Fit horses win more races" is about as helpful as saying non-greys win more races than grey horses. Oh wait, maybe not as helpful, at least we can be sure which ones are greys !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Blind Faith Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2012 at 11:47am
Right then, that explains it. Waller's been sleeping in.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2012 at 1:38pm
Originally posted by Appman Appman wrote:

Chris Waller stable horses are not as fit as they were 6 months ago.

Traing is all about  motivation, energy levels, enthusiam, hard work and wanting to win.

Basically they cut corners and get lazy.

People will complain long enough about a poor trainer's strike rate and he will get back to the basic longer hours and harder work of how he got successful before and their horses are fitter and they will start winning.

It's called being a human.

I have seen it hundreds of times.
You know this for a fact, or just sour grapes????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2012 at 1:46pm
Wink
Originally posted by Run For Fun Run For Fun wrote:

Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Originally posted by Appman Appman wrote:

 
And just to support PR, a long standing, successful professional punter once said that makes almost all his money backing in-form jockeys and trainers, largely irrespective of form or price.

OK, when does the buzzer sound that tells him when the "in form" happy time is starting ? Or ending ? The simple reality is that losing runs and winning streaks are are very difficult to identify positively as being indicative of "form" as opposed to normal statistical variation. And that, you can back in !
 
Well try telling that to the millionaire punter I was referring to, someone who started with virtually nothing.  A bloke who pioneered viewing every city race as many times as there were starters, watching a different horse and jockey every time, and frequently identifying jockey form irrespective of their finishing positions.
 
Suspect you're here to do little else than argue the toss rather than offering anything particularly positive.
He sounds like he is doing alot of tossing himselfTongue
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2012 at 2:43pm
Originally posted by Blind Faith Blind Faith wrote:

Right then, that explains it. Waller's been sleeping in.
don't blame him
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2012 at 3:04pm
Originally posted by Captain Marvel Captain Marvel wrote:

Like his speech when he won the Bart Cummings Medal. Straight from the heart. May this be the first of many. Proves that you CAN succeed without drugs.

So who is using drugs???? I think you really have no idea.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2012 at 4:54am
I wonder if it has anything to with the foreman leaving stables.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2012 at 4:56am
Anyway he has a winner in today 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2012 at 8:21am
Um isn't Chris Waller leading the syd training premiership and won at least 1 group 1 and finished very close in multiple others???? Wow the stable has really gone to poo!!!
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