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Champion racemare-Broodmare Flop

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TJMitchell View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2019 at 2:05pm
I'm a big proponent of winning grand-daughters of champions producing the goods.
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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2019 at 2:16pm
Tend to agree, however numbers come into it also.

Mare A has eight foals, four of whom are fillies B, C, D and E.  
                  Total opportunity in 1st generation (sons and daughters): 8

Mares B, C, D and E have eight foals each, four of whom are fillies F, G, H and I.
                         Total opportunity in 2nd generation (grandsons and granddaughters): 32

And so it goes on.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2019 at 2:44pm
And isnt that the "fun" of racing?

Making that right choice?

At least if the blood is there the odds are there in the first place.

As someone said if it were that easy we'd all be millionaires.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2019 at 2:47pm
Take the Perth race filly Mia Dolce; 14 race starts as a 2 year old and $200,000, bought for 2k.

Doesnt that make you want to look at her page to see where "it" may be coming from?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2019 at 2:53pm
Likewise SC look at all the grandaughters who end up in Asia.  Or get served by rubbish stallions with whom they have no hope of getting a winner.

Mia Dolce is the Manto female line and that is still very viable for getting winners.  Much better to pick one breed like she is than lots who have no chance of being a city winner.  Even her damsire was a good horse who really served next to nothing.  While the sire is a winning 1/2 to Exceed and Excel who also doesn't get big books but is probably better than half the sires getting bigger books anyway.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2019 at 2:57pm
Mia Dolces fifth grandam is Tristabelle great grand dam of Dance Hero.https://www.bloodstock.com.au/bloodstock/broodmare/st-martha-1#zBgARePd3qBdBCjW.97

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2019 at 3:01pm
Yes but still goes back to Manto.  Still a great family and the first official throughbred mare into Australia.  Nice to see the lines can survive.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2019 at 11:20pm
In The Bloodstock Breeders' Review 1913 annual J B Robertson had two articles on the subject.
...................................................................................
Dams of 189 Classic winners 1862-1913
Never ran 14.8%; Ran but no form 13.2%; Showed moderate form 20.6%; Fair winners 25.4%; Good winners 13.8%; High class race mares 12.2%
From those percentages it might look like mares with no form, little form, moderate form performed as well as high class race mares in producing classic winners.
...................................................................................
This was the classification of a random sample of 1,000 mares
Never ran 36.5%; Ran but no form 29.5%; Showed moderate form 14.5%; Fair winners 16.6%; Good winners 2.5%; High class race mares 0.4%
You can see that a tiny percentage of top race mares 0.4% produced  12.2% of classic winners.
...................................................................................
Comments in the article
"high class race mares were 30 times as frequent in the dams of classic winners as in thoroughbred mares in general"
"72% of the aristocracy of the turf, we see, are from mares that showed some sort of form, and over 50% are from mares which had considerable racing ability, and 26% from mares which had great racing ability."
...................................................................................
...................................................................................
More from J B Robertson
In the 1912 Bloodstock Breeders Review J B Robertson categorised sires into sprinters (PP), intermediate (PR), stayers (RR) and stated that a sprint sire could only produce a sprinter (PP) or an intermediate (PR) foal, a stayer (RR) could only produce an intermediate (PR) or a staying (RR) foal, and an intermediate sire (PR) and an intermediate dam (PR) would produce sprinters (PP), intermediates (PR) and stayers (RR) in the ratio 1:2:1.
Have we heard this recently?  Yes, we now have DNA testing to tell us something that was deduced over 100 years ago.
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kavg View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Aug 2019 at 9:58am
Be interesting to see a 2019 study. 1913 was a while ago. I'm fairly sure there was a more recent study which was probably posted somewhere on this forum but I can't find it. But memory tells me it had the same outcome.

Only doubt is that it may have referenced same study. In 1913 the pool of broodmares was a lot smaller than now. Plus I'm fairly sure that breeders were more selective than now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Aug 2019 at 9:27pm
How do runner ratings compare with their sire and dam ratings?
The rating used is the career rating (3yo+) and is the top of (xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, xxxx)

1) There is a very, very strong relationship between filly runner ratings and their dam's rating
2) There is a strong relationship between colt runner ratings and their dam's rating
3) The relationship between colt runner ratings and their sire ratings are strong, just not as strong

RatingxRatingxAllxColtsxGeldingsxFilliesxColtsxColtsxGeldingsxGeldingsxFilliesxFillies
BandxAveragexAllxMxGxFxSirexDamxSirexDamxSirexDam
130+x130x697x634x2x61x131.73x106.1x124.5x0x132.93x114
125-129x127x677x590x18x69x129.5x104.86x123.2x86x129.5x100.1
120-124x122x1455x1079x143x233x128.24x97.69x124.02x89.12x128.7x100.43
115-119x117x3270x2130x441x699x127.15x92.8x122.97x89.56x127.86x98.42
110-114x112x4890x2491x1046x1353x126.67x92.75x124.45x88.76x126.51x96.03
105-109x107x7130x2946x1839x2345x126.03x93.56x124.19x89.24x125.87x92.52
100-104x102x8523x3038x2412x3073x124.87x92.46x123.79x87.1x125.69x92.68
95-99x97x8785x2799x2768x3218x124.62x91.13x123.83x84.6x125.14x91
90-94x92x8987x2654x3144x3189x124.7x91.05x124.04x84.28x124.95x89.51
85-89x87x9731x2464x3818x3449x124.84x90.85x124.24x82.7x125.18x88.6
80-84x82x10753x2399x4334x4020x124.79x89.99x124.16x82.86x125.18x86.48
75-79x77x11769x2284x4940x4545x124.46x87.61x123.79x81.26x124.85x85.37
70-74x72x11586x1932x4836x4818x123.86x86.32x123.29x79.75x124.58x83.49
65-69x67x10967x1611x4652x4704x123.74x87.37x122.69x78.44x124.02x81.04
60-64x62x9788x1240x4076x4472x123.31x83.94x122.41x75.6x123.51x80.07
55-59x57x8551x962x3482x4107x123.14x85.08x122.44x75.47x122.59x77.01
50-54x52x6960x755x2758x3447x122.5x81.03x121.52x72.72x122.27x75.26
45-49x47x5428x590x2013x2825x122.38x87.03x121.66x72.61x121.44x73.91
40-44x42x3275x326x1196x1753x121.85x80.58x120.75x72.59x120.8x72.63
35-39x37x2044x210x744x1090x122.28x92.28x122.33x73.39x121.7x74.29
30-34x32x1333x128x487x718x121.06x89x118.65x64.93x119.91x72.37
25-29x27x822x100x275x447x120.11x74.22x119.66x73.83x121.21x73.59
20-24x22x543x69x184x290x123.6x84.33x119.58x76.33x121.81x77.21
15-19x17x399x57x134x208x122.58x87.86x120.16x76.72x121.6x74.06
10-14x12x316x36x117x163x125.43x96.25x121.46x74.91x120.74x77.1
05-09x7x214x17x81x116x121.71x71.5x121.22x73.83x121.61x78.63
01-04x2x330x23x69x238x111.22x64.33x117.75x74.22x123.48x66.58
00xnot rated >x201060x45577x39x155444xxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx
xx340283x79141x50048x211094x123.9x88.2x122.3x76.3x124.2x84.2

This is an exercise with ratings up to about 2015, but many of the ratings used are decades old.

If you post the above data into Excel and do /Data/Text to Columns/Delimited and use x as a field separator you should get 12 columns of data showing horse ratings in bands (e.g. 01-04; 05-09; 10-14 all the way up to 125-129; 130+).
You will see a very strong relationship between the dam rating and the foal rating, the higher the dam rating the higher the foal rating.
But there is a lot of variation.  The data sample is large to even out these variations.
Sample was 340,283 horses, but only 139,223 had both a foal, sire, dam rating so the table above is for 139,223 rated runners i.e. 201,060 did not have the three ratings "foal, its sire, its dam" for various reasons e.g. many dams are unraced, or raced in a country where it is difficult to get ratings.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Aug 2019 at 9:48pm
The interesting area to investigate is why does one dam produce high rated, medium rated, and low rated foals during their breeding career.

I think it is the choice of stallions.
Of course a stallion like Galileo will tend to produce better offspring, but not to the extent that people believe. 
Advertising lets you know about his Derby winners, but you will not see an advertisement listing lesser runners: 
Burning Desire (25), Castelli (45), Courtileo (47), Dynamo (35), Fire Spinner (43), Flea Cheoil (44), Galicuix (42), Golden Touch (11), Greca (48), Imperial Throne (48), Lamha Suas (32), Medicean Star (28), Rajaratna (18), Rhett Butler (42), River Beau (40), Scene Of The Crash (28), Skyphos (29), Solar Outburst (15), Space And Time (48), Spring Fashion (48), Stroll In The Park (45), Sun Seeker (49), Take It All Back (9), Telescopic (45), Twin Focus (44), Vero (48).

I am a fan of inbreeding / linebreeding.
A while back I was asked what I thought of a stallion. 
My guess was the person asking was either 
(1) planning to use the stallion 
(2) was connected to the stallion and wanted a favourable opinion from me.
I do not have opinions on stallions.

The stallion had about 150 foals with a foal rating, the sire rating (subject stallion), and dam rating.
My first comment was that the foals from that stallion averaged about 11 rating points less than their dams, not what you want if you send a mare to a stallion.

I then calculated the difference between each foal rating and its dam rating i.e. how much did that sire improve the dam (or otherwise). 
A few foals were rated 40 or more rating points above their dam (what you want), and many were 40 or more rating points worse than their dam.
Imagine sending a 100 rated dam to a 130 rated sire and getting a foal that runs to a 45 rating.
The two highest rated foals i.e. the biggest rating gainers above their dams, both had the same pedigree feature.
They had horse in their dam's pedigree that was a full sibling of a horse in the pedigree of that less than successful sire.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Aug 2019 at 11:58pm
One mare always overlooked is Wakeful.  

Her son (x St Alwyne)  Night Watch won the 1918 Melbourne Cup.  
Another son Blairgour (x Wallace) won the 1911 Oakleigh Plate and Futurity Stakes double.  
Another son Baverstock (x Maltster only won one race but sired the grand stayer David. 

One factor that always fouls the figures is that champion race mares generally get to meet the best sires which would greatly improve their chances of throwing a good winner.  More routine race mares don't have the same advantage. 

( Wallace and Maltster were both champion racehorses and sires.  St Alwyne was a well bred English stallion who was also sire of 1929 Melbourne Cup winner Poitrel and the champion mare Lady Medallist )


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2019 at 8:36am
Originally posted by diomed diomed wrote:

The interesting area to investigate is why does one dam produce high rated, medium rated, and low rated foals during their breeding career.

I think it is the choice of stallions.]


Diomed
Thanks for that. Some good thought provoking comments.
Excuse my ignorance but what are the dam ratings you refer to. Is it your own system or some industry standard a novice like me is unaware of?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Breeder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2019 at 10:52am
Clive Harper wrote a book published in 2003 called " The Thoroughbred Broodmare Book".
He took the broodmare of the year from around 1987 - 1996 for the USA, UK, Australia and NZ ( the time period varied slightly for each country) and he analysed the pedigrees of their progeny to try to find features that explained why they were good race horses.
(NB this was a time when Clive was into looking quite deeply or way back in the pedigrees).
Worth reading if you can get a copy.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2019 at 1:55pm
Very informative Diomed, Thanks
Can you tell us who the 2 highest rated foals were-ie. biggest rating gainers , as you called them.

Shrunk,
I don't want to answer for diomed but I'm pretty sure he means the rating the dam had when she raced.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2019 at 3:19pm
Thanks Kav, I thought that may be the case but then I thought he may have calculated his own formula for such a thing.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2019 at 8:08pm
Diomed 
Thanks for that. Some good thought provoking comments.
Excuse my ignorance but what are the dam ratings you refer to. Is it your own system or some industry standard a novice like me is unaware of?

In the early 1990 I wrote a database program to calculate the Dosage Index (an index that gives an idea of speed / stamina in a horse), but that program did not tell me the class of a horse.
In an attempt to assess class I wrote a program to analyse inbreeding in the first six generations of a pedigree. 
Again the results were disappointing, and I realised over time that all the horses I was analysing were top performers (Group race winners) - too little contrast.
I need to collect bad horses, and the only easy way to tell a good horse from a bad horse is by using ratings.  It was a massive undertaking collecting all those ratings from the internet and from my 1,000+ books.  I used ratings from nine different sources, probably incompatible with each other. 
If a rating source rates a horse 20 you know it is poor.  I just needed a general idea of the quality of each horse.
I took the highest rating I could find for 3yo and older e.g if there were ratings: 
110 (2yo); 93 (3yo); 88 (3yo); 90 (3yo) 78 (4yo); 95 (4yo) I took 95 as the rating of that horse.

The dam rating I refer to is the running rating of the dam as described in the line above.
The same for the foal (in its running career) and sire - it is the running rating as described above.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2019 at 9:01pm
Very informative Diomed, Thanks
Can you tell us who the 2 highest rated foals were-ie. biggest rating gainers , as you called them.

I sent you a message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2019 at 10:09pm
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I was lucky to buy books from Jack Glengarry Racing Services, New Zealand, in the early 1990s, and have all the Clive Harper books (except Pattern of Patterns in Thoroughbred Pedigrees).
Much of what I have done was an attempt to prove with a bigger sample what Clive Harper and Harold Hampton already proved.
I tend to do the work in the winter months, gathering data in the summer.

A tricky problem I think I solved is how to separate the influence of one type of inbreeding from another in a pedigree.
I think full siblings are the best type of inbreeding, but they are often found in a pedigree with other inbreeding, for example, three sons of a duplicated sire, and possibly a son and daughter of another duplicated sire.
How do you work out the pure value of the full sibling inbreeding, or how do you work out how much negative effect the three sons of the duplicated sire is dragging down the rating?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Breeder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2019 at 11:41am
I first started getting into reading / researching horse breeding after reading Jack's weekly columns in a NZ racing paper in the 80s. Like you I went onto buying many books from his shop.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Aug 2019 at 11:50am
KIRIANA (AUS)Bay filly 2013 
High Chaparral
Bay 1999
Sadler's Wells
Bay 1981
Northern Dancer
Bay 1961
Nearctic
Brown 1954
Nearco
Lady Angela
1935
1944
4-r
14-c
Natalma
Bay 1957
Native Dancer
Almahmoud
1950
1947
5-f
2-d
Fairy Bridge
Bay 1975
Bold Reason
Bay 1968
Hail to Reason
Lalun
1958
1952
4-n
19-b
Special
Bay 1969
Forli
Thong
1963
1964
3-b
5-h
Kasora
Brown 1993
Darshaan
Brown 1981
Shirley Heights
Bay 1975
Mill Reef
Hardiemma
1968
1969
22-d
1-l
Delsy
Brown 1972
Abdos
Kelty
1959
1965
1-e
13-c
Kozana
Brown 1982
Kris
Chestnut 1976
Sharpen Up
Doubly Sure
1969
1971
5-i
2-o
Koblenza
Brown 1966
Hugh Lupus
Kalimara
1952
1960
19>
1-n
Let's Get Famous
Bay 2001
Danehill
Bay 1986
Danzig
Bay 1977
Northern Dancer
Bay 1961
Nearctic
Natalma
1954
1957
14-c
2-d
Pas de Nom
Bay or brown 1968
Admiral's Voyage
Petitioner
1959
1952
4-n
7-a
Razyana
Bay 1981
His Majesty
Bay 1968
Ribot
Flower Bowl
1952
1952
4-l
4-d
Spring Adieu
Bay 1974
Buckpasser
Natalma
1963
1957
1-s
2-d
Let's Elope
Chestnut 1987
Nassipour
Chestnut 1980
Blushing Groom
Chestnut 1974
Red God
Runaway Bride
1954
1962
8-c
22-d
Alama
Bay 1969
Aureole
Nucciolina
1950
1957
2-f
9-c
Sharon Jane
Chestnut 1972
Battle-Waggon
Chestnut 1962
Never Say Die
Carrozza
1951
1954
1-n
3-o
Summer Sky
Chestnut 1959
Summertime
Grey Outlook
1946
1948
1-e
10>
 Ancestor duplications:Northern Dancer3m x 4m Natalma4m x 5m,5f




reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Aug 2019 at 12:17pm
200825/11bfillyKarataElvstroem (AUS)
200718/08bgeldingOutback JoeElvstroem (AUS)
2006


28/11/2005Royal Academy (USA) missed





Encosta De Lago (AUS) missed
2005


15/10/2004Fusaichi Pegasus (USA) slipped
2004


17/10/2003Elusive Quality (USA) died
200314/08bfillyParis TrystFusaichi Pegasus (USA)
2002


30/10/2001Fusaichi Pegasus (USA) slipped
200103/10bfillyLet's Get FamousDanehill (USA)
200009/10bcolt 28/10/1999Zabeel (NZ) parentage verified
199906/10bcolt 21/10/1998Danehill (USA) born in New Zealand
199809/09bcolt[nz] Ustinov* Seeking The Gold (USA
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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