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Calculated

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djebel View Drop Down
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    Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 1:00pm
I am going out on a limb here and suggest this is the best colt So You Think has produced and the best colt Chris Waller has trained.

I am usually conservative in my estimations of a horse but this guy and Ballet Baby excite me.


CALCULATED (AUS)
Bay or brown colt 2014 
So You Think
Bay 2006
High Chaparral
Bay 1999
Sadler's Wells
Bay 1981
Northern Dancer
Bay 1961
Nearctic
Natalma
1954
1957
14-c
2-d
Fairy Bridge
Bay 1975
Bold Reason
Special
1968
1969
19-b
5-h
Kasora
Brown 1993
Darshaan
Brown 1981
Shirley Heights
Delsy
1975
1972
1-l
13-c
Kozana
Brown 1982
Kris
Koblenza
1976
1966
2-o
1-n
Triassic
Bay 1990
Tights
Bay 1981
Nijinsky
Bay 1967
Northern Dancer
Flaming Page
1961
1959
2-d
8-f
Dancealot
Bay 1971
Round Table
Music Please
1954
1963
2-f
16-g
Astral Row
Brown 1979
Long Row
Brown 1970
Linacre
Front Row
1960
1965
15-a
42>
Pak Bun Bay
Bay 1970
Matinee Idol
Philipolo
1956
1960
13-e
13-a
Calchris
Brown or black 2003
Commands
Bay 1996
Danehill
Bay 1986
Danzig
Bay 1977
Northern Dancer
Pas de Nom
1961
1968
2-d
7-a
Razyana
Bay 1981
His Majesty
Spring Adieu
1968
1974
4-d
2-d
Cotehele House
Brown or black 1980
My Swanee
Grey 1963
Petition
Grey Rhythm
1944
1954
16-g
8-j
Eight Carat
Brown 1975
Pieces of Eight
Klairessa
1963
1969
3-o
9-c
Miss Chakra
Brown 1996
Marscay
Chestnut 1979
Biscay
Chestnut 1965
Star Kingdom
Magic Symbol
1946
1956
1-g
2-o
Heart of Market
Bay 1967
To Market
Accroche Coeur
1948
1959
10-a
4-m
Gypsy Way
Bay 1988
Sir Tristram
Bay 1971
Sir Ivor
Isolt
1965
1961
8-g
6-e
Sequita
Bay 1977
Sovereign Edition
Sequitur
1962
1971
13-a
13-a
 Ancestor duplications:Northern Dancer4m,5m x 5m


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Sunline View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 1:10pm
I have a big wrap on him too - not sure I'm saying he's going to be Waller's best colt yet. Trained a couple of nice ones in the past like Zoustar, Kermadec and Brazen Beau.

I actually blackbooked him from the trials last prep, but was disappointed with his debut. On reflection, it was probably very excusable and he probably wasn't ready.

His trials this prep have been enormous - especially the recent one. He just needs to show that in a race now and off he goes.
Sunline...simply supreme
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 2:27pm
I know comparatively little (nothing) about breeding but if by chance he reaches the heights it would be yet another example of a well-bred lightly raced mare to the fore. Feel free to set me right but as an ignorant observer it seems to me the breeding push for the progeny of Group, black type etc mares is largely misplaced????? It's probably just that they stand out but well-bred, underperforming mares who have short careers seem to pop up regularly as the dams of good track performers???????


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furious View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 2:30pm
Sadler's Wells/Danehill.  Juliet Juliet - who would want more.  And it's in my stable so I hope your right Djebel.  Didn't do much at its only run.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 2:47pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

I know comparatively little (nothing) about breeding but if by chance he reaches the heights it would be yet another example of a well-bred lightly raced mare to the fore. Feel free to set me right but as an ignorant observer it seems to me the breeding push for the progeny of Group, black type etc mares is largely misplaced????? It's probably just that they stand out but well-bred, underperforming mares who have short careers seem to pop up regularly as the dams of good track performers???????



I think that's more about champion mares who race on for season after season - a la Sunline, Makybe Diva etc. I think you'll find your average stakes winning mare that hasn't raced past 5 or more than say 20-30 starts is a great chance at producing stakes winners.

The focus is always on the champs because there are few of them and it stands out when they produce slugs. I read something recently though that said Europe has no issue with champion mares producing stakes winners and it could be more to do with our environment or practices.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Gay3 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 2:47pm
3bm, I've seen a few stats & they irrefutably show progeny of G1 mares to be superior, performance wise, which is likely due to higher quality matings, better rearing & training opportunities but as you've suggested, it's not the B all & end all Big smile
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 3:40pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

3bm, I've seen a few stats & they irrefutably show progeny of G1 mares to be superior, performance wise, which is likely due to higher quality matings, better rearing & training opportunities but as you've suggested, it's not the B all & end all Big smile

Thanks Sunline/Gay. Not that I have any real knowledge of the topic but I was thinking more of those mares served by "acknowedged" sires and only first generation of the dam. If I was truly interested I'd probably scan the Timeform best and G1 winners across the years and check how their mums went. I do like to check the breeding of 2 and 3yr olds that I'm backing and particularly the performance of their siblings but beyond that I leave it to those with vested/deep personal interests. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AdaHunta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 4:00pm
Trials might look ok but look at the last 600m SLOW !! Hasn't broken 35 seconds 

Race debut they ran home 34.30 and he was found wanting even out sprinted by Kennedy whos a Godolphin B grader and hasn't won a race since 

Cant see where all this Hype is coming from 

GOODLUCK !!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 4:38pm
Must be a quiet Monday Ada. This thread should have gone up on April 1st.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 4:43pm
Last 600m has marginal meaning in a 900m trial unless they're running hard from the outset imo. He made up 10l in the last 400m. His own 600m was significantly faster - I'd guesstimate about 0.8 secs looking at margins during the race and at the finish. Overall time was good for the day. 

Trial was impressive enough to my eye to warrant attention but he now has to take that form into races over further against experienced horses. Breeding on the dam side has pace and stamina which should help. Long way to go obviously and much too early to predict he'll be a very good horse but I like  the bold call.

Anyone know what Waller thinks? He's usually reserved until they're 3-3.5yo by which time they've won a few and have been pitted against the clock and better training partners. He was quiet on Egg Tart but all over Omei Sword and even Winx prior to her record run as a late 3yo. 
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 5:50pm
Both Calculated (Bowman chasing premiership title) and Sparky Lad (another fair trialler from Waller yard) nommed R1 Cant Wed. No markets yet?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Aurelius Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 6:06pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

I know comparatively little (nothing) about breeding but if by chance he reaches the heights it would be yet another example of a well-bred lightly raced mare to the fore. Feel free to set me right but as an ignorant observer it seems to me the breeding push for the progeny of Group, black type etc mares is largely misplaced????? It's probably just that they stand out but well-bred, underperforming mares who have short careers seem to pop up regularly as the dams of good track performers???????




IMO that is pretty much spot on.

Blue blood dams seem to skip a generation or two and then bang! some good ones arrive.
Unless of course it is completely bred out of them.

Don't they say 90% or so of our decisions are based on fear.
Fear if we don't buy a black type mare we will not be successful in breeding.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 6:41pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Both Calculated (Bowman chasing premiership title) and Sparky Lad (another fair trialler from Waller yard) nommed R1 Cant Wed. No markets yet?


Yes that has me bamboozled.

Adahunter might be right


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

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The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 6:46pm
B365 just went up $5/2, $4 for SL. 

Sunline ?? just killed it as I was about to place my betLOL. Into $4.40
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 6:47pm
$3.60 SportsBet atm if you're keen.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 6:49pm
Waller also has Blazeray (Avdulla) in the race djebel.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 6:52pm
Interesting race, but perhaps more a question of "darts anyone?".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 6:52pm
8 markets now up. All $4-4.40 except for PaddyPower SB who are big unders atm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 7:32pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

B365 just went up $5/2, $4 for SL. 

Sunline ?? just killed it as I was about to place my betLOL. Into $4.40


Certainly took the $5/$1.91. Whether it was me or a tsunami of others that tightened him up I don't know haha. Definitely wasn't there soon after I took it as I tried to push someone else in but was too late.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 7:39pm
$3.4-3.9 across the corp board now. TAB has $4
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SkyDancer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 8:23pm
Only run to date was very plain to my eye.
Would want to find a few extra gears come race day, trials are trials (overrated) nothing beats an actual race!
djebel, I think you have gone the early crow.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Xavier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 8:28pm
I would fall out of my chair if this horse runs top 4
Sorry punters, but it helps if you take the Waller coloured glasses off every so often
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 8:36pm
Into $3.5 now.

To respond to some of the above:

* Totally agree he needs show he can turn awesome trials into similarly good race performances. I'm prepared to forgive the debut performance but as I said above I was disappointed and I'm guarded about him til then. That's why I was happy with $5/$1.91 but couldn't push anyone to take $3.5.

* Can confirm Xavier I don't punt with rose coloured glasses. There's no money in it. If I'm wrong, I'm happy to be wrong. But it won't be because I was fooled by who trains it I assure you.

Prepared to back him at the price I got on his most recent trial in particular. They rarely trial like that from that yard if they're not talented.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 9:05pm
Seemed too obvious to warrant a reply nevertheless you've summed it up well Sunline. Djebel may have been optimistically musing but I'm prepared to go further and label him (Calculated, not djebel) the next big coming. Of what I don't know. Funny things at times, forums
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sir Gov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 9:29pm
Waller - darts
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Xavier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 9:49pm
Wasn't aimed at you Sunline, just a general observation that Waller runners sTart shorter than they would if trained by someone else.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jul 2017 at 12:56am
Into $3.3 now, with Sportsbet as short as $3.1. They've jumped out of trees to back him this evening.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote room for a slew Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2017 at 11:16am
Certainly has been well backed

Well done to those who got the overs!!

If this horse is as good as the talk and money suggests, would be interested to hear wallers thoughts.

Would he have primed to win today and then put him away for a bit and target a guineas or spring champion stakes or derby

Or would he be building up the horse slowly and is not ready for this 1st up?

Or maybe class would get him home regardless?

Where is DD for the inside info! !

Good punting all
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2017 at 11:47am
Waller scratched the second fav, hence the new market . Price is now silly imo. Bowman gave Calculated a bit of a wrap on radio this morning but suggested his best today is the Lees filly in R3
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2017 at 11:49am
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Waller scratched the second fav, hence the new market . Price is now silly imo. Bowman gave Calculated a bit of a wrap on radio this morning but suggested his best today is the Lees filly in R3


Calculated was 2.35 last night before scratchings.

Deductions will be interesting


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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