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Birthday Card Stakes Final Field

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Hot2Trot View Drop Down
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    Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 4:48pm
9-05.30 CLEANEVENT BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200 METRES)
Of $125000. 1st $81250, 2nd $25000, 3rd $11250, 4th $5000, 5th $2500. Starter Subsidy: $200 for non-prize earning runners. For Three-Years-Old and Upwards Fillies and Mares. Quality. (GROUP 3). No Allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 18 + 4 EM
No
Horse
Trainer
Jockey
Barrier
Weight
Penalty
Handicapper
Rating
1
BEADED
Peter Snowden
Kerrin McEvoy
8
58
103
2
ILLUMINATES
Graeme Rogerson
Peter Wells
5
55.5
98
3
PATRONYME
Joseph Pride
Nash Rawiller
7
55
97
4
MELITO
Gerald Ryan
Michael Rodd
11
53.5
95
5
MARY'S GRACE
Kylie Gavenlock
Tim Clark
10
53
92
6
ACQUIRED (NZ)
Gary Portelli
Nathan Berry (a)
2
53
87
7
BEAUCOUP
Gerald Ryan
Jay Ford
1
53
87
8
GLOWLAMP
Clarry Conners
Blake Shinn
9
53
87
9
JERSEY LILY
Les Bridge
Jim Cassidy
4
53
86
10
RENAISSANCE
Peter Snowden
Timothy Bell (a)
3
53
82
11
LOGAN'S CHOICE
Barbara Joseph
Tommy Berry (a)
6
53
79
12
PURRPURRLENA
Grahame Begg
Luke Nolen
12
53
78
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princerubiton View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote princerubiton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 5:05pm
If Melito can't beat Beaded at those weights she never will. Melito for me.
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The Muffin Man View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Muffin Man Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 5:32pm
Wow, I had no idea there would be such a weight discrepency, I'm now not as confident as I was of a Beaded victory.
"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Romano Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 5:34pm
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmelito
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Muffin Man Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 5:41pm
So we have Beaded, a 4 year old that has won a few Listed races and looks above average, running with 58kg, and we have Melito, a 3 year old that has run second in a Group One, won two Group Two's, and placed in a number of other Group races, running with 53.5kg. I would have to say I think Melito has definitely got in well at the weights here and probably should now win.
"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shakamaker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 5:50pm
I put Mary's Grace (with apostrophe) in RVL and got 'no results found', so I put Marys Grace (no apostrophe) and it found it with an apostrophe LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fairest One Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 5:56pm
Glowlamp was despartely unlucky last start but she always seems to go well fresh and is obviously a non-winner. Melito for me but maybe a little each way on Glowy.
Cmon Apparitions!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Romano Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 8:03pm
Melito ..already $5 into $4....still looks value to me
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 8:14pm
Melito unbeatable here.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Znatchy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 8:15pm
M Rodd goes on.  Melito looks good.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Balmain Tiger Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 9:01pm

I respect the weight differential between Beaded and Melito. But I'm banking on Beaded being able to carry the weight and just get there.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote margo123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 9:12pm
Interesting ....Beaded  has won 5 more races than Melito , but half the prizemoney ...
 Has carried the big weights before, =  and beat the eventual Coolmore winner last start in a smart run........ hard to go past one so consistent ...Beaded for me , unless silly unders.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 9:40pm
A 4yo Lonhro mare with 58kgs v 4yo mare Lonhro mare with 53kgs.
Does Bell claim?

Renaissance. Up in class a lot but,
Won 5 from 11.
2 wins and a 2nd from 3 attempts first up.
Probably 8 to 10/1 ew looks ok.

I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 10:36pm
Melito into $3.40 on Luxbet - smashed.
 
Even though I missed the $5, I was happy enough to hit the $4.60. I thought it would still be value but I didn't expect $3.40 to come up.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote questions Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2010 at 10:58pm
the weights have got me confused on this one. i am also a fan of illuminates and though she struggles to win often still if the pace is on she is a big chance
 
still beaded looks special and strong enough to carry the weight
"it's not gambling if you're absolutely sure you're gonna win" Barney Stinson
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote M.D.3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 2:52am
Beaded she'll still win. Renaissance will run a big race i think and will most likely be the Value hope.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 4:11am
MD3, why are you taking a set against Melito?
Sunline...simply supreme
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Nick View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 5:21am
Relative to WFA the weights seem fair don't they?
 
Agree that Melito will beat Beaded though.
 
Neither are great value.  I would be looking elsewhere to someone like Beaucoup who didn't handle the track last start.  Patronyme will also be better suited back at 1200m.
 
Cheers and good luck with your bets.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 5:37am
I would bet Melito at $2.
Will win. Double your money
If you get $3, you triple your money.
Anything over that, just a bonus.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote M.D.3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 7:32am
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

MD3, why are you taking a set against Melito?
 
i'm not taking a set against it Sunny, i just like a couple in front of it, melito would probably my 3rd pick after the two i said. i've followed Beaded for a while, and had a good collect on Renaissance last prep.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 6:36pm
Sorry, that's what I meant. But basically if you were a bookie you'd lay Melito because there is a stack of money for her and you have two down to beat it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 6:57pm
Coming off a failed Oaks campaign, I would rather give Melito a run to be sure she is over it before stepping into her. She hasn't won first up in 2 preps, and off a staying prep, especially with 2 strong barrier trials this time, might just need one run and 1400m
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 7:25pm
BD, her trial was enough for me. She was devastating.
 
At $4.60, I was happy to take the risk that you rightly point out. At the $3.20 she's in to now, agreed a bit of a risk.
 
She has the potential to win a Group 1 this prep in any number of races so she should stand up here.
 
Not having won first up is not a cocnern for me. She has only had two preps, the first time was her debut run on a slow track which we now know she doesn't handle, and the second time she was beaten a half head in the infamous Silver Shadow - whip happy Ganderton cost me and many others a small fortune!
 
BD, although she finished up in the Oaks, I don't think she was trained to be a stayer last prep. Like countless other 3YO fillies, she was aimed at all the nice stakes races over the sprint-mile journeys and, having failed to secure a Group 1, connections tried to stretch her out to the Oaks in the hope her class would get her there.
 
She was never a stayer. She's a sprint-miler who just needs a dry surface and a race without More Joyous. She finds all of the above tomorrow.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 7:35pm
I agree Sunny, I think the Oaks was an afterthought, as she was going so well at the time. She didn't really contest the Oaks anyway, dropping out under no pressure.

The question mark I have with that is the extra work gets bored into her when she didn't have the right fitness base for a 2500m race as her target It's just that she is against some talented older mares first up, and might want the 1400m firstup.

She is high class though, as you pointed out
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 7:58pm
Fingers crossed she fires!
 
I like the 3YOs against the older horses. They are doing the job and should keep doing it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 8:04pm
I hope she wins for you mate. To progress to a Group winning older mare, she needs to chew up this class  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2010 at 8:06pm

For sure.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2010 at 12:46am
MD3, are you not concerned by the jockey change on Beaded?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote M.D.3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2010 at 1:11am
Not really Sunny she is all class and could overcome difficulties to still win. I really starting to like Renaissance more and more. Melito will run well too, it will be a good race i think. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VPI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2010 at 7:07am
Originally posted by Browndog Browndog wrote:

I agree Sunny, I think the Oaks was an afterthought, as she was going so well at the time. She didn't really contest the Oaks anyway, dropping out under no pressure.

The question mark I have with that is the extra work gets bored into her when she didn't have the right fitness base for a 2500m race as her target It's just that she is against some talented older mares first up, and might want the 1400m firstup.

She is high class though, as you pointed out
I agree, she's probably going to be behind the other 2, like to see her able to sprint before backing her. Patronyme is looking fair value.
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