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Whale View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 3:51pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Whale . Your confused and getting back to lying posts .

You've been beaten up bad i'd say . No need for me to give you more brain damage .
READ WHALE =   ( No catch, except when we make a new profit milestone I want to be paid for my efforts. I will be asking for a percentage of the profit made!!. The paid profit is to be split between me and The Cancer Council )

    I'm sure we would all like a bit of that ....    I'll tip and if you win I get a cut .   If you lose = stiff shxt.

I've seen past results.

No the link has been posted many times.   Continue with your insults on a discussion forum Wink

Once again, keep up, this was posted after the original one

how about this then.........
 
ANYONE that gives a donation of $250 to the cancer council after I post this can get my bets for lets say the 1st 4 months of the year!! the receipt of the donation needs to be verified b4 receiving the bets.
 
RECEIVING ONGOING BETS WOULD BE SUBJECT TO A NEW DONATION.
 
DONT NEED THE MONEY..... the CANCER COUNCIL DOES!!!!
 
ALLAN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 4:01pm
whatever you say Macca, not interested Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 4:11pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Whale . Your confused and getting back to lying posts .

You've been beaten up bad i'd say . No need for me to give you more brain damage .
READ WHALE =   ( No catch, except when we make a new profit milestone I want to be paid for my efforts. I will be asking for a percentage of the profit made!!. The paid profit is to be split between me and The Cancer Council )

    I'm sure we would all like a bit of that ....    I'll tip and if you win I get a cut .   If you lose = stiff shxt.

I've seen past results.


No the link has been posted many times.   Continue with your insults on a discussion forum Wink

Once again, keep up, this was posted after the original one

<span style=": rgb251, 251, 253;">how about this then.........</span><div style=": rgb251, 251, 253;"> 
<div style=": rgb251, 251, 253;">ANYONE that gives a donation of $250 to the cancer council after I post this can get my bets for lets say the 1st 4 months of the year!! the receipt of the donation needs to be verified b4 receiving the bets.<div style=": rgb251, 251, 253;"> <div style=": rgb251, 251, 253;">RECEIVING ONGOING BETS WOULD BE SUBJECT TO A NEW DONATION.<div style=": rgb251, 251, 253;"> <div style=": rgb251, 251, 253;">I DONT NEED THE MONEY..... the CANCER COUNCIL DOES!!!!<div style=": rgb251, 251, 253;"> <div style=": rgb251, 251, 253;">ALLAN


Cut the crap like ( a nark ). Alleged old posts ( beat you up , which is a lie )and I'll be as pleasant as we have been lately.

In reference to changing the original post ( I did a great job )
------------------

Just look for the favoured last start winners ( or near to )and a few "golden rules " like top Jock    ( Pike is a gem )
They all rate on top with the numbers men .   Price is the key if your fortunate to score the overs .

BTW the example of 8/12/18 was posted very late in the day 4.30PM.
Allan may mean well , that's not in dispute and we all get deluded on the tip .
WE can't expect members to not have opinions , especially when it is big money and financial gain involved.
SP, over time measures a tipsters ability.



















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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 4:15pm
thanks for keeping the discussion alive guys........
 
BUT I have 2 people who have decided to take the bit between the teeth and run with it.
 
Another 2 that are looking into the results etc. before making a decision.
 
Everyone can make up their own minds. IS IT GOOD? IS IT BAD? IS IT GENUINE? CAN HE MAKE A PROFIT GOING FORWARD?
 
The history is ONE thing betting live is another.
 
I have posted what would have to be a  thousand bets on here over time...AND I AM 100% SURE the result on ALL the posted bets would result in a lovely overall  PROFIT....and YES the prices are not "manufactured", they are prices that I have taken at the time the price was available. It could have been on a Wednesday night for a Saturday meeting, Could have been that morning or simply made at BOB or what ever would be the best possible outcome for my money.
 
I made an attempt to help "anyone" back a winner and to help a charity at the same time. So take it for what it is..... an OFFER......AND NO ONE HAS TO ACCEPT IT. Everyone can make their own decisions.
 
ALLAN
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 4:20pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

thanks for keeping the discussion alive guys........
 

 
 

that was my purpose Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 4:22pm
by the way  charitable donations are tax deductible, so $250 is only $175 or less depending on you marginal tax rate
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 4:29pm
YOU WROTE:
BTW the example of 8/12/18 was posted very late in the day 4.30PM.
Allan may mean well , that's not in dispute and we all get deluded on the tip .
WE can't expect members to not have opinions , especially when it is big money and financial gain involved.
SP, over time measures a tipsters ability.
 
UM,what time it was posted has WHAT do do with it?? OR did you just "glance" at the bets again?. Did you happen to notice that from when I posted the message, that the bets from then on finished in a small profit but a PROFIT non the less. IF someone had taken the price in the morning for AFRICAN QUEEN which I did........$2-60 at Neds for $500 and then $2-50 for $100 at Bet365, the result looks a lot better for what was posted!!. Anyone that takes this up will be advised beforehand what I will be doing with MY betting.
 
ALLAN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 4:59pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:


YOU WROTE:
BTW the example of 8/12/18 was posted very late in the day 4.30PM.
Allan may mean well , that's not in dispute and we all get deluded on the tip .
WE can't expect members to not have opinions , especially when it is big money and financial gain involved.
SP, over time measures a tipsters ability.
 
UM,what time it was posted has WHAT do do with it?? OR did you just "glance" at the bets again?. Did you happen to notice that from when I posted the message, that the bets from then on finished in a small profit but a PROFIT non the less. IF someone had taken the price in the morning for AFRICAN QUEEN which I did........$2-60 at Neds for $500 and then $2-50 for $100 at Bet365, the result looks a lot better for what was posted!!. Anyone that takes this up will be advised beforehand what I will be doing with MY betting.
 
ALLAN


Al ...    I would know what most of your bets are without you telling me .
-----------------------

This was in print some 50 years ago --- originally and is a good base to explore.
There are many different ways to go about the challenge of making a profit as a punter. The underlying objective however is universal: to back horses that are 'overs' in the betting market commensurate to their real winning chances. This, of course, is otherwise known as “getting value”. 
Achieving that objective doesn’t always need to involve countless hours of form study and price assessment of every horse in a race. Very few punters have the time or expertise to do that effectively.
An alternative approach however is to understand where profit making opportunities exist in the betting market, based on the characteristics of individual horses. In other words, you are focused on finding horses with certain traits that history says are underestimated by the betting market. These horses can therefore help to provide the foundation of a good value bet.
In this article we explore this concept further by taking a look at four value angles around last-start winners contesting metropolitan races (within the same preparation i.e. not first-up).
1. Last-start winners on the quick back-up
This was a favourite tipping strategy of legendary race caller Ian Craig and while some mocked him for it, the facts suggest he was well and truly onto something.
Last-start winners (from any track), backing up in a metropolitan race within 1 to 7 days:
Last-start winners (from any track), backing up in a metropolitan race within 1 to 7 days:
STARTING PRICE
BETS
WINS
SR%
POT%
All
771
151
19.6%
+7.7%
Up to $10
560
140
25%
+6.9%

Based on just over the last 3 years of racing from 1/1/2014 to 22/1/2017. 

There are not a massive number of bets with just 771 in 3 years, but the overall results show that these horses have been significantly underestimated by the market and are well and truly worthy of consideration as betting prospects.
. Last-start on-pace winners
Horses with early speed have a tactical advantage in racing and generally make for better betting propositions.

We see that concept demonstrated when we isolate last-start winners that won their race after showing the early speed to settle up on the lead, either first or second in the run:
STARTING PRICE
BETS
WINS
SR%
POT%
All
6,493
1,116
17.2%
+2.1%
Up to $10
4,566
1,041
22.8%
+3.4%

Based on just over the last 3 years of racing from 1/1/2014 to 22/1/2017. 

A +3.4% POT for horses up to $10 SP might not seem too significant, but it’s outstanding for a single factor, especially when you consider the market average for all horses up to $10 SP is -7%.
3. Debut winners repeating at their next start
Horses that win on debut have a much better than average record of repeating next start and provide an excellent betting return: 
STARTING PRICE BETS WINS SR% POT%
All
890
188
21.1%
+11.8%
Up to $10
630
178
28.3%
+15.1%
. Last-start winners by trainer
When a horse wins, the trainer has the responsibility of keeping that horse in peak mental/physical condition and in particular, placing that horse in the right race to win again. The record of trainers at getting their last-start winners to repeat is something I’ve routinely kept tabs on over the years as a measure of their performance and betting reliability
Wrapping up
If you are short on time and/or knowledge about the finer details of racing form, then last-start winners are a great starting point to help find good bets for any race day. You don’t necessarily need to spend hours doing the form.
The average betting return for all last-start winners is significantly better than any other finish position and as you can see from the data above, there are some great angles to look for that can help you to efficiently identify profitable bets.
I don’t recommend blindly backing all horses that meet these rules, but you can certainly use them as a starting point for your bets and look to eliminate those with risk factors that are likely to see them perform worse than the average (e.g. those that are likely to settle well back in the field.) This type of approach can help to provide good structure, clarity and consistency around your selection process and give you an excellent chance of making a decent profit. ( especially on fancied runners with the variables in their favour.)



















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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 5:04pm
you do????? well please let me know the bets for tomorrow and Saturday....
or even have a go at what I bet on today???
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 5:08pm
Based on just over the last 3 years of racing from 1/1/2014 to 22/1/2017
UMM, WHAT HAPPENED TO MOST OF 2017 AND ALL OF 2018??  ARE PART OF THE LAST 3 YEARS OR NOT?
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 5:12pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:


you do????? well please let me know the bets for tomorrow and Saturday....
or even have a go at what I bet on today???
 
allan


Your first bet was Bubbles Ball R1 At coffs .. at $2.50   lololol.



















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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 5:25pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:


you do????? well please let me know the bets for tomorrow and Saturday....
or even have a go at what I bet on today???
 
allan


Your first bet was Bubbles Ball R1 At coffs .. at $2.50   lololol.
 
TAHDAHHHHHH.... wrong!! not a bet today!! you can keep going today...but you wont find any...... find me some for tomorrow??
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 5:27pm
Bigal is one of the few here who have provided a history of profitable selections. I’m not looking for something like this at the current time but if I were I’d have no issues with his offer at all.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 5:34pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Bigal is one of the few here who have provided a history of profitable selections. I’m not looking for something like this at the current time but if I were I’d have no issues with his offer at all.
 
thanks for the comment E and E...as I said earlier every ones BIG enough to make their own decisions......
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 5:39pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:


you do????? well please let me know the bets for tomorrow and Saturday....
or even have a go at what I bet on today???
 
allan


Your first bet was Bubbles Ball R1 At coffs .. at $2.50   lololol.

 
TAHDAHHHHHH.... wrong!! not a bet today!! you can keep going today...but you wont find any...... find me some for tomorrow??
 
 
allan



Not hard Al but on long time past performance you will be on last start winners, fav or near to . or the occasional 2nd placed lead up .   
   On 8/12 I just saw 8, before i knocked up. 6 were last start winners , 2 were coming off 2nd 's .     All Favs as far as I can see.
Please don't claim Arcadia Queen, as all of Australia backed it with Pike up. Even TOM.
Good luck in whatever you do and your followers of course .   I hope they are as capable of getting the overs as you do with multiple Family accounts. ( getting overs is the key, Not the horses.)



















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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 6:04pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

[QUOTE=bigal]
you do????? well please let me know the bets for tomorrow and Saturday....
or even have a go at what I bet on today???
 
allan


Your first bet was Bubbles Ball R1 At coffs .. at $2.50   lololol.

 
TAHDAHHHHHH.... wrong!! not a bet today!! you can keep going today...but you wont find any...... find me some for tomorrow??
 
 
allan



Not hard Al but on long time past performance you will be on last start winners, fav or near to (NOT ALL) . or the occasional 2nd placed lead up (WRONG!!) 
   On 8/12 I just saw 8, before i knocked up. 6 were last start winners , 2 were coming off 2nd 's .     All Favs as far as I can see. (completely WRONG LONG TERM)
  Please don't claim Arcadia Queen, as all of Australia backed it with Pike up. Even TOM. (I can claim it, MY systems brought it up 4 times!!!!) and I can claim $2-58 for the horse!!
Good luck in whatever you do and your followers of course .   I hope they are as capable of getting the overs as you do with multiple Family accounts (WRONG!! I HAVE 15 ACCOUNTS  MO HAS 3!! OTHER FAMILY EXCEPT MY SON ZERO!!). ( getting overs is the key, Not the horses.)  very wrong UNLESS you are a value better...I am not.!!![/QUOTE]
 
you think you have it....... YOU ARE NO WHERE NEAR IT!!!! if you are tell me my bets for Saturday at this point in time!!!!
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 6:21pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:


you do????? well please let me know the bets for tomorrow and Saturday....
or even have a go at what I bet on today???
 
allan


Your first bet was Bubbles Ball R1 At coffs .. at $2.50   lololol.
 
TAHDAHHHHHH.... wrong!! not a bet today!! you can keep going today...but you wont find any...... find me some for tomorrow??
 
 
allan

Macca was wrong Shocked

Strange how he wants to rain on your parade. If his systems are so good he should start a betting thread, 0 % he will be a successful as you r are Al
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He wouldn’t be the first on here to do that would he Whale ? Poor old Redemption gets stick from you every time she puts up her well thought out betting systems. Just cough up the 5k & put your money where your mouth is - you can find a lazy 5k I assume !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 6:55pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Bigal is one of the few here who have provided a history of profitable selections. I’m not looking for something like this at the current time but if I were I’d have no issues with his offer at all.
What ? Since when were you adverse to making an easy quid E&E ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 6:59pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Bigal is one of the few here who have provided a history of profitable selections. I’m not looking for something like this at the current time but if I were I’d have no issues with his offer at all.
What ? Since when were you adverse to making an easy quid E&E ?
 
WHAT ? since when is ANYTHING in this game easy!!.
 
ALLAN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 7:18pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Bigal is one of the few here who have provided a history of profitable selections. I’m not looking for something like this at the current time but if I were I’d have no issues with his offer at all.
What ? Since when were you adverse to making an easy quid E&E ?

 
WHAT ? since when is ANYTHING in this game easy!!.
 
ALLAN
Exactly Al
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Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:


AND if you to know the motivation behind it all........
 
MY MOTHER DIED OF CANCER
MY FATHER DIED OF CANCER
MY FATHER IN LAW DIED OF CANCER
MY ELDERST BROTHER DIED OF CANCER (I AM ONE OF 9)
MY SECOND ELDEST SISTER DIED OF CANCER
ANOTHER SISTER IS A TWICE SURVIVOR OF CANCER
ANOTHER BROTHER HAS HAD KIDNEY CANCER
 
 
ENOUGH MOTIVATION????
 
IS THIS REALLY THAT "MAD"???
 
and yes in the last 10 years we have probably donated about ten grand or more to cancer as well as MANY hours helping!!
 
ALLAN


Family should stop smoking and drinking gelati.
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Originally posted by Pazman Pazman wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:


AND if you to know the motivation behind it all........
 
MY MOTHER DIED OF CANCER
MY FATHER DIED OF CANCER
MY FATHER IN LAW DIED OF CANCER
MY ELDERST BROTHER DIED OF CANCER (I AM ONE OF 9)
MY SECOND ELDEST SISTER DIED OF CANCER
ANOTHER SISTER IS A TWICE SURVIVOR OF CANCER
ANOTHER BROTHER HAS HAD KIDNEY CANCER
 
 
ENOUGH MOTIVATION????
 
IS THIS REALLY THAT "MAD"???
 
and yes in the last 10 years we have probably donated about ten grand or more to cancer as well as MANY hours helping!!
 
ALLAN


Family should stop smoking and drinking gelati.
 
YOU ARE A DISGUSTING INDIVIDUAL AngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 8:03pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

He wouldn’t be the first on here to do that would he Whale ? Poor old Redemption gets stick from you every time she puts up her well thought out betting systems. Just cough up the 5k & put your money where your mouth is - you can find a lazy 5k I assume !

Smile


You don't have to try to prove you are obnoxious oneone, we are well aware. And your provocations are a bit ps poor these days, I guess too many corn chips and Cokes  makes you sluggish.
I can raise $5000 , pocket money, but as I posted previously :

I will not be involved, I don't bet Smile, and when I did I liked the thrill of big odds and the pain of losing Confused


11 days to Xmas Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 8:16pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Bigal is one of the few here who have provided a history of profitable selections. I’m not looking for something like this at the current time but if I were I’d have no issues with his offer at all.
What ? Since when were you adverse to making an easy quid E&E ?



Not adverse at all. Too many other things on at the moment including my own plays to have time for this though.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 8:17pm
The balls in the scrum it would appear.

Actually I would have voted E&E the as the successful gambler , with his trading skills and documented evidence of those methods at times.

Good to have some opinions on the subject and surprised to know there are others on here with 15 & 3 accounts to match the tipster & need someone to let them know when Winx is a goer.




















<b
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oneonesit View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 8:31pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

He wouldn’t be the first on here to do that would he Whale ? Poor old Redemption gets stick from you every time she puts up her well thought out betting systems. Just cough up the 5k & put your money where your mouth is - you can find a lazy 5k I assume !

Smile


You don't have to try to prove you are obnoxious oneone, we are well aware. And your provocations are a bit ps poor these days, I guess too many corn chips and Cokes  makes you sluggish.
I can raise $5000 , pocket money, but as I posted previously :

I will not be involved, I don't bet Smile, and when I did I liked the thrill of big odds and the pain of losing Confused


11 days to Xmas Wink
lol Whale - "I can RAISE $5000" - not really pocket money then ? Your not buying a house or a plane you know. Put your park bench up as collateral  LOL
TBV Statistical Analyst - & often misunderstood !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 8:40pm

 
ALLAN
[/QUOTE]

Family should stop smoking and drinking gelati.[/QUOTE]
 
YOU ARE A DISGUSTING INDIVIDUAL AngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngry
[/QUOTE]

gone, lasted longer than I thought 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 8:44pm
I've left the above highly offensive comments for all to see why this person is on the banned list.
However if Allan or anyone else prefers it hidden, please let me know.
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 8:53pm
Al I know you are a good form analyst & I don't doubt your sincerity in wanting to support a worthy charity like the Cancer Council. However, the reality is you have as much chance maximising the amount you donate if you punt by yourself vs a team of yourself + others. You purely need to increase your own investment if you do it by yourself to that amount that the team would be investing in total. So the only difference between the two is that you decrease your own exposure in the team approach if your system does not turn a profit. You also increase your profits if it does. 
TBV Statistical Analyst - & often misunderstood !
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