Bet of the Round

oneonesit wrote:

Absolute twaddle Redemption. So the bookies only set an overs/unders line on a 95% heavy ground vs a 95% good ground at 2 to 8 points difference ? We are talking AFL & not NRL here are we not ? You are also a long way away from proving your case. I'm prepared to be patient

The bookies set the lines high, end of story.

For wet games, and yes, they read the BOM too, of course they do, they still set it too high.

Thats the whole point of what we are saying.

I recall as few years back, it was totally pouring in Geelong, and the bookies had the line at 172.5

I couldnt put enough money on it.

Ever so gradually, and I mean gradually, the bookies are realising their wet game lines are far too high.

Tonights game, 138.5, its still too high.

If its pouring, as expected, and the game finishes at 160, 150, etc, then do be it.

But the point is, more often than not, it finishes way below the line in a truly wet game.

Its like 95% that it will finish under the generous line in a truly wet game

AFL is the most score affected sport in the world when it comes to rain.

Its a sport than in the dry, it can be 200 points. And in the wet, it can be 100.

Breakdown the math even more.

Lets say its pouring, and the line is 140

thats 40, 40, 30, 30, each quarter

To achieve even just 40, thats 6 goals, 4 points.

Thats a goal, every 3 minutes of the game.

can it happen?

Yes, it can

But to score a goal, every 3 minutes of the game, in the rain, is HIGHLY unlikely.

If it was Blackjack, yes, we are counting the cards, the weather cards, and in worst case scenario, you can layoff the bet, if its dry, and cop a small loss.

Geezx, the conditions are really really bad

Doppler radar, wind is a whopping 90.

There is consistent rain coming, and hard rain

The line has dropped to 136.5 on william hill

thats still too high

they will be lucky to get to 100 tonight

going by what radar is doing now, maybe even struggle to get to 90.

Lets see who can get closest to the actual game result

I will say:

Port: 63

Dogs: 42

Total: 105

TAB is also showing $2.80, for line under 125.5, so I just bet that too, simply as its a chance to almost triple outlay.

Hope you managed to limit your losses Redemption.

Ended up being perfect conditions, which can happen. But basically you stood no chance which is frustrating.

oneonesit wrote:

At 5pm the weather forecast that I looked at had a " 24% precipitation" prediction. The conditions were therefore as expected.

That was for 8pm

TBV Statistical Analyst - & often misunderstood !

Actually, I kept all bets pre game.

I was happy enough with the wet, it was still slightly slippery on the surface.

However the score by the 25th minute mark, got to 36, nearing 40. thats alarm bells, because obviously 4 quarters at 40 points, is 160.

So I rang William Hill, score at 36, line 140.5, odds $2.10, and dumped my entire bet

In saying this though, and credit where its due, I found myself in the position that Oneonesit warned of.

The gap.

Had the score finished at 139 or 140, I would have lost my pre-game bets, and all of my hedge bet.

Whilst its a small risk, I did find myself stuck with that gap existing of 2 points.

Thankfully if went well over that.

I actually came out totally even

Sunday in Geelong looks promising for heavy rains.

Under 140.5, odds $1.82

Also if you want to go safer,

Under 150.5, odds $1.40

Thats on Neds

This is going to be a genuinely wet game

Its also worth noting, strong defensive sides are really able to limit scores at the Geelong ground, because its a narrow ground.

The narrowness enables the forward line to bottleneck faster, because more players are able to get back to the defensive 50 arc, so wet, plus bottleneck and good defensive teams, assure its a low scoring game.

geepez

lol

had it penned in for a cats home game in geelong

Good call MJB. Well done

Richmonds intensity is remarkable.

On top of what they did last year, they have self belief. Its only added to their new era.

I find it quite interesting that the Crows are sinking, after a bizarre pre-season, of punishment, playing Richmonds theme song all week to punish the team, etc, its old psych methods that dont work anymore.

I say this, because Richmond have turned to Yoga, led by Dusty.

And Collingwood have started going that down path too, and suddenly click into a gear.

Its become quite obvious that psych work that revolves around peace, honesty, opening up, Yoga etc, actually works.

They build respect, not only for themselves, but for each other.

Redemption, you've been quiet lately. Hope all is well.

Check out the weather forecast for Perth over the weekend.

mowie wrote:

got to be suns to cover the line 60 point headstart with loads of swans out, I put 50 on it

Great bet Mowie

Well done. Brilliant.

MJB, Ive bet very heavily for todays Perth game.

I took the 142.5 under, at $1.90

Will keep an eye on the game in case I have to hedge at halftime etc.

Its my biggest bet this year.

I didn't end up betting. No rain to speak of. There's some wind about and the ground is a touch wet but overall the conditions are okay.

54 in the first quarter. Looks to be going well overs.

ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Qtr time and the over/under is now around the 168.5 mark. I guess Brooke/Redemption is hedging. Well pretending to anyway.

About 4 min ago - just after 2nd term began.