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Gay3 ![]() Moderator Group ![]() Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Ballarat Status: Offline Points: 32998 |
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Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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The bookies set the lines high, end of story. For wet games, and yes, they read the BOM too, of course they do, they still set it too high. Thats the whole point of what we are saying. I recall as few years back, it was totally pouring in Geelong, and the bookies had the line at 172.5 I couldnt put enough money on it. Ever so gradually, and I mean gradually, the bookies are realising their wet game lines are far too high. Tonights game, 138.5, its still too high. If its pouring, as expected, and the game finishes at 160, 150, etc, then do be it. But the point is, more often than not, it finishes way below the line in a truly wet game. Its like 95% that it will finish under the generous line in a truly wet game AFL is the most score affected sport in the world when it comes to rain. Its a sport than in the dry, it can be 200 points. And in the wet, it can be 100. Breakdown the math even more. Lets say its pouring, and the line is 140 thats 40, 40, 30, 30, each quarter To achieve even just 40, thats 6 goals, 4 points. Thats a goal, every 3 minutes of the game. can it happen? Yes, it can But to score a goal, every 3 minutes of the game, in the rain, is HIGHLY unlikely. If it was Blackjack, yes, we are counting the cards, the weather cards, and in worst case scenario, you can layoff the bet, if its dry, and cop a small loss.
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Gay3 ![]() Moderator Group ![]() Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Ballarat Status: Offline Points: 32998 |
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What price did you get for your 138.5? |
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Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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Geezx, the conditions are really really bad
Doppler radar, wind is a whopping 90. There is consistent rain coming, and hard rain The line has dropped to 136.5 on william hill thats still too high they will be lucky to get to 100 tonight going by what radar is doing now, maybe even struggle to get to 90.
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Gay3 ![]() Moderator Group ![]() Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Ballarat Status: Offline Points: 32998 |
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Yep, they're $1.95 for that. |
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Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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Lets see who can get closest to the actual game result
I will say: Port: 63 Dogs: 42 Total: 105
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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Hi Gay, $1.90 for the 138.5, yesterday. Im still betting. LOL Ive just made 3 more bets at 136.5 and Im watching radar and may keep betting at 7pm for more of the unders.
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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TAB is also showing $2.80, for line under 125.5, so I just bet that too, simply as its a chance to almost triple outlay.
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oneonesit ![]() Champion ![]() ![]() Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 12191 |
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TBV Statistical Analyst - & often misunderstood !
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MJB ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1583 |
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Hope you managed to limit your losses Redemption.
Ended up being perfect conditions, which can happen. But basically you stood no chance which is frustrating. |
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oneonesit ![]() Champion ![]() ![]() Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 12191 |
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At 5pm the weather forecast that I looked at had a " 24% precipitation" prediction. The conditions were therefore as expected.
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TBV Statistical Analyst - & often misunderstood !
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oneonesit ![]() Champion ![]() ![]() Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 12191 |
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TBV Statistical Analyst - & often misunderstood !
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ExceedAndExcel ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 10971 |
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Of course Brooke/Redemption limited the loss. Always does. Don’t ask for a screen shot of the bets though. You don’t need them. Just take her word for it. ![]() |
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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Actually, I kept all bets pre game.
I was happy enough with the wet, it was still slightly slippery on the surface. However the score by the 25th minute mark, got to 36, nearing 40. thats alarm bells, because obviously 4 quarters at 40 points, is 160. So I rang William Hill, score at 36, line 140.5, odds $2.10, and dumped my entire bet In saying this though, and credit where its due, I found myself in the position that Oneonesit warned of. The gap. Had the score finished at 139 or 140, I would have lost my pre-game bets, and all of my hedge bet. Whilst its a small risk, I did find myself stuck with that gap existing of 2 points. Thankfully if went well over that. I actually came out totally even |
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ExceedAndExcel ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 10971 |
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No you didn’t. Take a screenshot of your betting statement. Won’t happen of course.
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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Sunday in Geelong looks promising for heavy rains.
Under 140.5, odds $1.82 Also if you want to go safer, Under 150.5, odds $1.40 Thats on Neds |
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MJB ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1583 |
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Yep. Obviously l'm no where near as confident on Richmond as l was a week ago. They should still be winning but it's dangerous messing around with the lines in a bog game. Obviously over 39 is extremely unlikely now.
I think l'll just take the $1.55 head to head in some multi's. Short but sweet. |
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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This is going to be a genuinely wet game
Its also worth noting, strong defensive sides are really able to limit scores at the Geelong ground, because its a narrow ground. The narrowness enables the forward line to bottleneck faster, because more players are able to get back to the defensive 50 arc, so wet, plus bottleneck and good defensive teams, assure its a low scoring game.
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Gay3 ![]() Moderator Group ![]() Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Ballarat Status: Offline Points: 32998 |
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I'm sure they're playing at the MCG today Redemption.
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Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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geepez
lol had it penned in for a cats home game in geelong |
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MJB ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1583 |
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Richmond just a class above. It doesn't matter the conditions.
If they finish top 2 it's done. Give em the flag. Unbeatable at the G. |
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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Good call MJB. Well done
Richmonds intensity is remarkable. On top of what they did last year, they have self belief. Its only added to their new era. I find it quite interesting that the Crows are sinking, after a bizarre pre-season, of punishment, playing Richmonds theme song all week to punish the team, etc, its old psych methods that dont work anymore. I say this, because Richmond have turned to Yoga, led by Dusty. And Collingwood have started going that down path too, and suddenly click into a gear. Its become quite obvious that psych work that revolves around peace, honesty, opening up, Yoga etc, actually works. They build respect, not only for themselves, but for each other. |
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Softy ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 24 Sep 2017 Location: Tas Status: Offline Points: 562 |
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Just wondering, upon perusal of other racing sites, whether this thread and maybe a couple of others will be closed down due to new legislation passed regarding sports betting / advertising?
Others may know more? |
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MJB ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1583 |
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Redemption, you've been quiet lately. Hope all is well.
Check out the weather forecast for Perth over the weekend. ![]() |
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mowie ![]() Champion ![]() ![]() Joined: 18 Dec 2009 Location: echuca flyer! Status: Offline Points: 5172 |
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got to be suns to cover the line 60 point headstart with loads of swans out, I put 50 on it
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chris Armstrong waller, *drugs are bad mkay
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Redemption ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1754 |
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Great bet Mowie Well done. Brilliant. ![]() MJB, Ive bet very heavily for todays Perth game. I took the 142.5 under, at $1.90 Will keep an eye on the game in case I have to hedge at halftime etc. Its my biggest bet this year.
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MJB ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1583 |
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Hope you took a piece of the $17 on the head to head mowie! They even traded at $81 live in play l heard.
I'll be planting myself in a tab before the start of the West Coast game. If l see it bucketing down l'll be loading up on the under. |
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MJB ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1583 |
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I didn't end up betting. No rain to speak of. There's some wind about and the ground is a touch wet but overall the conditions are okay.
54 in the first quarter. Looks to be going well overs. |
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ExceedAndExcel ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 10971 |
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Qtr time and the over/under is now around the 168.5 mark. I guess Brooke/Redemption is hedging. Well pretending to anyway.
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ExceedAndExcel ![]() Champion ![]() Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 10971 |
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About 4 min ago - just after 2nd term began. ![]() |
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