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ExceedAndExcel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2018 at 7:13am
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Already down to 145.5 with most corporates.




Most? Not really. Looks a pretty even split between 152.5, 149.5 & 145.5 to me. Happy to be on over 145.5 & under 152.5. Looking for a middle.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2018 at 10:10am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Already down to 145.5 with most corporates.




Most? Not really. Looks a pretty even split between 152.5, 149.5 & 145.5 to me. Happy to be on over 145.5 & under 152.5. Looking for a middle.


Yeah, nah.

TAB 145.5
Sportsbet 145.5
Ladbrokes 145.5
Crownbet don't have an each of two way total. They've got under 150.5 at $1.68. So if they did have an each of two total it would be around that 145.5 mark.
Neds 147.5
Bet365 148.5
William Hill 152.5

I think l've listed most of the big boys.

Looks like most to me, but l did drop out of school early so maybe l'm not adding them up so good.

What you're hoping for is for it to land in a very small gap. Good luck with that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2018 at 11:18am
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Already down to 145.5 with most corporates.




Most? Not really. Looks a pretty even split between 152.5, 149.5 & 145.5 to me. Happy to be on over 145.5 & under 152.5. Looking for a middle.


Yeah, nah.

TAB 145.5
Sportsbet 145.5
Ladbrokes 145.5
Crownbet don't have an each of two way total. They've got under 150.5 at $1.68. So if they did have an each of two total it would be around that 145.5 mark.
Neds 147.5
Bet365 148.5
William Hill 152.5

I think l've listed most of the big boys.

Looks like most to me, but l did drop out of school early so maybe l'm not adding them up so good.

What you're hoping for is for it to land in a very small gap. Good luck with that.



7 pts is not a small gap. People (not me) make a living out of finding middles. So no I won’t need “good luck with that” because it’s a profitable play long term.

And thanks for listing all of those lines several hours later. They weren’t that when you posted that’s for sure.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2018 at 11:23am
Even 140.5 is still too high

If the BOM is accurate, they will struggle to make it to 100.

As I say, lets say the line is 150.5, do you like the chances of the game getting to 30 points over the line, to 180, or 30 points under the line, to just 120 points?

Thats how you truly determine the stronger likelihood that you are betting on the correct side of the line
The correct side, is under the line, because there is simply a far greater likelihood the score only makes 120, not 180.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2018 at 11:27am
William Hill is 145.5

That line is still too high

To put that scoring into perspective

1st quarter: 40
2nd quarter: 40
3rd quarter: 30
4th quarter, 36

total 146

Thats still good scoring, even in dry. Those scores represent a fluent, steady stream of scoring.

Line is too high at 145.5

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2018 at 11:35am
Im making another bet this weekend

Geelong at -53.5   against Carlton

I expect Cats to come out in a ruthless manner this weekend, after pathetic game against Essendon

I wont be shocked if Cats make that minus line by half time, and win by over 90 points.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jun 2018 at 6:15pm
Friday

Port v Richmond in Adelaide

5 to 15mm predicted

Line is at 142.5

Happy to snap that up

Scoring would have to be

40
40
30
33

Too high

Load up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jun 2018 at 6:19pm
Sunday

Freo v Crows, sunday in perth

Rain predicted

Line is 158.5

That line is decent for a dry game

Betting here too. Early bet, happy to risk it at a line that high.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2018 at 4:55am
Surprised you aren't all over the Friday night game, Redemption. Port v Richmond. The total is 140.5. I don't even need to look at the weather forecast. The total is clearly telling us there's rain about. I wonder how bad it'll be? Remember that Crows v Dogs game a few weeks back. If it's anything like that it'll barely get to the ton.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2018 at 4:58am
Apologies! Just saw your double post now. I originally only saw the last post. I really need to get some sleep.

Here l was thinking you missed the Port game. I should have known better than to doubt you.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jun 2018 at 6:14pm
MJB

I may dump tonights bet.
Waiting for the pre-game show, to see if grass a bit slippery.
If it appears dry, Im going to bet the over line, and cop a minor loss.
Will decide at 7.15 tonight.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jun 2018 at 6:25pm
It appears the rain/wet deck isn't as bad as they first thought. The total has jumped from 140.5 to 148.5.

Google search live webcams in Adelaide. You can get a bit of a guide that way.

Either way, l'm not getting involved. Looks a tough round of footy this week. I think l'll stay out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jun 2018 at 7:28pm
I already made the bet yesterday MJB

Ive had to make a bet over the line and will cop a minor loss.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jun 2018 at 11:21pm
It still went under 140 despite not a drop of rain. There was only a handful of goals in that 2nd half.

Just goes to show any game that involves wet weather footy and/or challenging conditions just take the under. You'll collect 9 times out of 10.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jun 2018 at 9:52am
Thats right MJB
Bet under the line really hard, 2 to 3 days before the game, when rain predicted, get the line as high as you can.
If the rain doesnt come on the day, just lay your bet, cop a minor loss.

By example, Ive just put $1,800 on the Freo v Crows game, line, 156.5
Bet under the line
Torrential rain and storms predicted. 15mm to 30mm

The beautiful thing about this, is you can also bet "live" during the game.
So if the rain doesnt come, or they are having a freak scoring day, pick up the phone, ring thru a live bet, to bet over the line, hedging, so you only cop a minor loss.

So you either win huge with the early bet at under the line.
Or just take a minor loss

Its a license to print money.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jun 2018 at 10:02am
william hill offers several total match points "live" during game

so I will be watching the 1st and 2nd quarters closely for the freo v crows game.
if the 1st quarter is a slogfest, i wont have to hedge.
sit back, watch, enjoy, as they struggle to even get to 100 or 120.

if scoring is a bit freakish, or game a bit dry first half, pick up the phone, hedge at a line over 156.5, and just accept a minor loss.

I had $900 on last night game, i hedged a further 700 when rain didnt come. came out about even.

accept a minor loss if rain doesnt come. just hedge it.
the big wins, put you way ahead of the minor losses of hedging.

so run it like a short stock.

play it like a stock market
our stock is the rain.
our information agency is the weather bureau.

AFL is the most rain affected outcome sport in the world.
its a high scoring sport, that becomes low scoring in rain.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jun 2018 at 6:02pm
Gee there is some codswallop going on here. The unders do not get up "9 times out of 10" MJB. And this crap with redemption laying off live for a "minor loss" if the game is screaming points will result in either a much higher line being set - or if the original line is taken you will get the shorts ($1.05 or similar). If you do the former you are in danger of falling between the 2 lines & losing the lot. If the later you are getting a "major" loss. I'm not sure why you guys think you are so much better than the bookies - over a season you are likely to lose the vig just like every other mug punter.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jun 2018 at 3:09pm
MJB, Im on a multi and will collect if freo game sits under 158.5

Im in a position due to multi, that I can profit even if I bet the over current line of 155.5.

do you think I should?
sitting here, cant make up my mind. lol

oh by the way, oneisit, the line gap you speak of, actually generally works in favour, not against.
Im even in that position right now.
If I bet over the 155.5, and the game is 156, Im going to collect at both the under and over the line.

also, you didnt factor that sites like william hill, offer multiple lines, eg, under 190.5, under 180.5, with different odds.
you can just pick whatever line you want, and hedge, accept a minor loss, or in some cases, profit, which is the situation Im in right now, can pick the overs line and Im still going to profit.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jun 2018 at 3:58pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:


Gee there is some codswallop going on here. The unders do not get up "9 times out of 10" MJB. And this crap with redemption laying off live for a "minor loss" if the game is screaming points will result in either a much higher line being set - or if the original line is taken you will get the shorts ($1.05 or similar). If you do the former you are in danger of falling between the 2 lines & losing the lot. If the later you are getting a "major" loss. I'm not sure why you guys think you are so much better than the bookies - over a season you are likely to lose the vig just like every other mug punter.


I don't think you understood what l meant. In my opinion unders gets up 9 times out of 10 WHEN rain is coming down or the ground is a bog. Actually, it's not an opinion. I will say it's factual.

Go back through the games this year. You will see that l'm on the money.

Very rarely do l save bets Redemption unless my opinion changes. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

But obviously with the total going up by a fair bit it's going to be perfect conditions. So when that's the case, maybe you should save. Because your original opinion with the wet is now invalid.

Good luck.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 7:45am
Thanks MJB

I let go of some of the multi profit and hedged a little bit.
Obviously the game finished at the unders anyway, which was still my preferred result.
Came out with a nice profit.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 9:10am
Yes I did factor that in Redemption. I have 5 Corporate Accounts including William Hill.
 
Well we can make this easy. How about this challenge - starting from today you both post your bets you "actually" have on the AFL. I mean you are both obviously doing it as according to you guys it is raining dollars. None of this "well this line looks good" , "I might lay off here" , "take a minor loss" stuff - just actual bets with the amount staked , the price & the day/time the bet was placed, & which Corporate you had it with. If either of you are ahead at seasons end I'll be happy to agree you are better than the bookies at assessing wet weather & the lines they set.
 
And please Redemption - real bets. Its often one thing to see a live price & another to get it - in AFL one goal can change the offer considerably (esp. late in the game)Not this doubling / tripling up until you get a result.
 
I know I come across as a nark - just struggle with anyone saying there are "systems" that consistently beat the bookies. Maybe there is, & you have one - would just like to see it in practice.
 
Cheers  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 10:02am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:


Yes I did factor that in Redemption. I have 5 Corporate Accounts including William Hill.
 
Well we can make this easy. How about this challenge - starting from today you both post your bets you "actually" have on the AFL. I mean you are both obviously doing it as according to you guys it is raining dollars. None of this "well this line looks good" , "I might lay off here" , "take a minor loss" stuff - just actual bets with the amount staked , the price & the day/time the bet was placed, & which Corporate you had it with. If either of you are ahead at seasons end I'll be happy to agree you are better than the bookies at assessing wet weather & the lines they set.
 
And please Redemption - real bets. Its often one thing to see a live price & another to get it - in AFL one goal can change the offer considerably (esp. late in the game)Not this doubling / tripling up until you get a result.
 
I know I come across as a nark - just struggle with anyone saying there are "systems" that consistently beat the bookies. Maybe there is, & you have one - would just like to see it in practice.
 
Cheers  




You can be sure that anyone saying anything like “9 out of 10” has absolutely zero scientific basis for the claim.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 10:56am
Everyone is potting the unders in the wet theory but l haven't yet seen anyone show me a game that has gone over the total in these wet conditions?

Just off the top of my head...

Gold Coast v North didn't get to 100 in torrential rain.
Adelaide v Bulldogs didn't get to 100 in torrential rain.

They're the two that come to mind straight away. Plenty of other games that have involved a bog ground and/or windy conditions. I would like to go back round by round but l've got form to get done on the races today. That takes priority over arguing with a couple of blokes on a racing forum.

Oneonesit,

This is no chestbeating contest. I'm the first to admit l've had a nightmare last 6 months on the punt. I'm not winning. Horse racing has been f*****g me. I'm slightly in front on footy.

It's quite logical really. The tougher the conditions on the players the bigger the certainty the under is. That's all l'm saying. If you're good at predicting the weather you can win. It's not always easy though of course.

Let's just say you see there's a reasonable chance of rain occurring during a game a few days out, you can get on at say under 150-160. When the game comes around and it's pouring you've already collected. It can't possibly go overs. But if the rain hasn't come as predicted, just lay off and take a small loss. No big deal.

Anyway, for what it's worth - l'll give you a moral next week. I've been waiting a while for this game. Richmond will beat Geelong next week. Take the two goal line. There's a big chance they'll win over 39 as well which will be around $4.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 11:52am
Trouble is MLB - it wont be a minor loss. For example - you do your homework on a game that rain is forecast & you lock in under 150 at $1.90 (this assumes you get set at all - often market is suspended this far out if forecast is all over the place). Then on game day the forecast changes to no /minimal rain - & the $1.90 line drifts to say around 175 (or even higher). The offer from the Corporates that offer numerous lines will have the over 150 now around $1.20. So do you lay off at the $1.20 or not ? You obviously cannot take over 175 as there is now a 25 point spread in between were both the unders & overs lose. The reality with this type of approach is that it sounds logical & easy to manage. In practice it is neither - that's why you need to actually use real bets to give it a fair crack
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 12:05pm
Fair call. Redemption can answer that one for you.

I don't usually save bets. I'll ride with what l've got unless my opinion goes the other way.

The two games Redemption liked this round - neither of these games saw rain or difficult conditions and they still went under the original totals Redemption took.

Did the totals really go up that much? I think the Freo game only went up two points to 160.5. The Port game might have gone up a goal or two.

I remember a few week backs l was in a tote watching the Adelaide v Bulldogs game. They were only a few minutes from bouncing the ball and l could see it was absolutely pissing down. Tab were betting under 160.5. It was stealing money. And then they put up their individual quarter markets - under 37 at $2.10 for example. I don't think l've had an easier collect in my life.

Just gotta wait for the right moments.

If l see rain and they're betting on the over/under l'm taking unders every time.

But sometimes l see betting companies get scared and they refuse to bet on a live total market when they see it's raining during a game. Weak as piss.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 1:38pm
I would have thought the same game played in heavy /wet conditions vs a game in dry/good conditions would be a difference in overs/unders line of at least 20 to 30 points.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 10:10am
137.5 tonight Redemption. Obviously a good chance of a bog. Did you already load up?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 1:12pm
Hi MJB

I took the 138.5 line on william hill yesterday.
They are sand bagging areas around Adelaide, so its expected to be bad.
Also 90kph winds, hard to shhot at set shot for goal.
Much time is wasted on set shots, then they miss. It really drags the scores down.
I love it when a player marks, around 40 to 50 out, windy, just makes it all that bit harder.

Oneisit, you still dont seem to understand the point.
Tonights game by example is 138.5.

What I ask myself, is would the game be a better chance of getting to 158.5 in wet, or 118.5 in the wet?
Thats a 20 point swing either side of the line.

The correct side of the line, is the unders, because they struggle to even get to 100, let alone 160 in the wet.

Your "drift" on the line blowing out, if its dry, what total garbage. No offence
They only shift the line 2 to 8 points. Ive never even seen them shift it 10 points, let alone 20 or 30.

Tonights game being 138.5, scores are required to be

35
35
30
39

that is still relatively consistent scoring, even in dry

The thing is, in a true wet game, they struggle to even score 20 in a quarter, which then means, they have to make up ground in another quarter, by scoring 5o to 60 in a wet quarter.
It just gets harder and harder, and less and less likely to achieve the line.

What we are TRULY betting on, is the BOM.
They get it right around 90 to 95%
Thats the true math of our success, because as Ive said, and as its already being proven on here, they set the line way too high

Tonights line show be more like 110.5
Because the truth is, if the wind and rain is as bad as predicted by the BOM, they will struggle to even score 100, let alone 140.

You also forget, many punters see a line, 138.5, and think, "Oh, they will make it past that".
And they lose.
They are the LOSING PUNTERS.
The ones the bookies are making their cash off.

We are betting on the correct side of the line, end of story.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 1:49pm
Absolute twaddle Redemption. So the bookies only set an overs/unders line on a 95% heavy ground vs a 95% good ground at 2 to 8 points difference ? We are talking AFL & not NRL here are we not ? You are also a long way away from proving your case. I'm prepared to be patient
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 1:56pm
There's a huge forecast variation between these 2

Thu
Jun 14
Fri
Jun 15
Sat
Jun 16





Windy with showers

Showers

Possible shower




Maximum 16°C 15°C 14°C



Minimum 11°C 11°C 9°C



Chance of Rain 80% 60% 60%



Rain Amount 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm

Here is the South Australian forecast until Sunday, I would assume that most of this rain is now going to come close to the two fronts, rather rely on showers in the SW stream behind the front.

Its going to be a very wet night if you are heading to the Adelaide Oval, and very wild and windy. But it still brings decent totals, so the front itself may have a big band of storms on it this afternoon.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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