Join up at Crownbet - Click here - Crownbet is Thoroughbred Village’s premier betting partner - Join here now
Forum Home Forum Home > All Sports - Public Forums > Joffs All Sports Bar
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Bet of the Round
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login


Click here for the Thoroughbred Village Home Page. For village news, follow @TBVillage on Twitter. For horseracing tips, follow @Villagebet on Twitter. To contact the Mayor by email: Click Here.

Bet of the Round

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1234>
Author
Message
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Apr 2018 at 9:27am
4 posters in the 3rd quarter screwed us!! Bloody unlucky.

Bont missed twice from 15 metres out directly in front. All you can do is laugh really. He would usually kick them with his eyes closed.

Back to Top
Sponsored Links
Click here to view the promotions at Crownbet.


Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Apr 2018 at 7:13am
Rain or not, every game is going unders. According to my notes there's been 17 games in a row go under the total. The last overs was round 4 Essendon v Port Adelaide.

The bookies will react next round surely. Those totals they frame in the 180's will be a thing of the past.
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 7:01pm
MJB

start betting on all outdoor Melbourne games this week at the unders, and also the adelaide game

They have the lines far too high
they arent even making the line in the dry, let alone the rainband coming
Back to Top
TIGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Location: Earth
Status: Offline
Points: 6850
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TIGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2018 at 7:08am
Pies -15.5 Vs Lions....

$1.80 Pies
Hidden In Hollywood
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2018 at 4:23pm
Originally posted by TIGER TIGER wrote:

Pies -15.5 Vs Lions....

$1.80 Pies

I agree with that bet tiger

Pies traveled well to Adelaide and are playing at a high standard now
They should be far too good

lower sides do tend to love playing collingwood though, they lift for it

but pies should cover that line, they have really clicked into gear.
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2018 at 9:56am
MCG Friday Night

20mm to 80mm predicted and strong winds

The line is set at 140.5 points.

There are bet options for game being under $150.5, odds $1.60

I honestly believe they will struggle to even get to 100 this friday night.

Shop for options for game to be under 160.5 too, as some markets have that, odds $1.30

The game will probably read something like 45 points to 48. a slogfest close struggle.

I cant see them even getting to 120 let alone 150

150 is actually a fairly high score, eg 100 to 50

cant see a team getting to 100 in these conditions. good luck. lol
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2018 at 10:31am
You beat me to it Redemption. I knew you'd be all over that bet. They reckon it's going to be torrential rain for the next few days.

Alot of the games lately haven't been going over 150 in perfect conditions. So how the hell will this go over in a slog? No hope. Sell the house, sell the car, rob a bank. Do what you gotta do to get on. It's stealing money.

And once you collect, you may as well roll over the winnings onto the next day. Carlton v Essendon unders. It's set at 155.5. My mob the Bombers have only been scoring 60-70 of late. I can see this being something like 60-50 with Carlton getting up. We hate the wet. They beat us last year in wet conditions. And we are in shocking form. There's no doubt Carlton would have circled this game as their big chance of getting a W. I'm backing Carlton and unders.
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2018 at 8:58pm
Spot on

This is a classic game the line is set too high
It opened up at 140.5 points.

The reason thats too high, is because it would take a damn fair effort to reach that score

Its more like a 50% chance that can only get to 120.

I always view it this way, the game would have to be 90 to 51, to beat the line
Thats actually decent scoring, even in dry this year, as you said.

I took the 150.5 option at $1.65 on william hill.

just cant see it being 90 to 61, or 80 to 71 in these conditions.
good luck to them if they do.

we are betting on physics and all the wasted time, missing marks, not hitting targets, ball to the ground, hard to even pick it up, let alone his handball and kick targets.
chews up the clock all over the place
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2018 at 11:38am
there is a decent chance they wont even make it to 90 points tonight, let alone 150. lol
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2018 at 11:43am
the line for tonight is down to 137.5

even that is generous

put it into perspective

to bet that line

1st quarter: 40 points
2nd quarter: 40 points
3rd quarter, 34 points
4th quarter, 24 points

etc etc as example

that is still solid scoring required.
good luck. lol

im happy with the $1.65 i took at under 150.5 points, 3 days ago.
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2018 at 11:51am
Of course, we arent suggesting its "not" possible.
But what we are saying, its highly unlikely.

We are betting on the accuracy of the weather radars and weather formulas, to turn the odds against the house
No different to Blackjack
We pick our moments.

I would rate it only a 20% chance they make it to 140 points tonight.,
Certainly not a 50% chance

and thats the point of all this, swinging the likelihood on our favour by picking the right moments

do the bookies have a read on the weather?
of course they do

but their lines are wrong. they opened up at 140.5 points
its too generous. its not at all a 50% chance they can make it to that line tonight.

if they do, so be it.
but its more likely they wont, at best its only a 30% chance that could reach that line

Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2018 at 2:26pm
You're on at the good price Redemption. The TAB are betting under 150.5 at $1.40.

I'm going to load up on the under 135.5 at $1.95.

And l'll have something on the Sydney/under 135.5 double at $4.90.

Why are Sydney out to $2.50? I think it's a flip of the coin game. I can't work out why Hawthorn are getting smashed in the betting. I gotta go with the value.
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2018 at 7:17pm
I do think Swans are struggling at inside contested footy
I havent seen their stats, but a few games Ive watched, they seem to be shoved aside a little easy
But we all know that swans are notorious for rising up off the canvas, just when they dont seem like they can. Their whole culture is built on being the underdog tough team

I thought Hawks struggled in tassie a few weeks ago against saints in wet. they won, but werent exactly convincing

rain is easing now, but the ball will be soap. even just the cold air and dew is enough

i will say, 53 to 47, swans win.
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2018 at 7:58pm
We might be in some trouble. No rain about, conditions look fine. The G holding up well. We need Mother Nature to come to our rescue.
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2018 at 8:18pm
Can't win em all Redemption. Bit unlucky though. It's been raining all day but it's stopped for our game.

Not many stoppages either which is rare for this season. Both coaches prepared to chance their arm.
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2018 at 10:21pm
Unreal hey!

Fell on 150 exactly. Go buy a tattslotto ticket Redemption.

No joy for me. I copped it up the ass.

Bring on the baked beans.
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2018 at 10:31pm
WTF was that????

LOL

Freak first quarter

Only a further 98 points after that

This is the gamble though, the radars.
had it rained, theres no doubt we make it easily.
the wet, cold, dew, keeps it low. Most of the match the skills were very very good, playing almost like it was dry.
It was actually high standard, a very good game

Oh Melbourne city, love it, hate it, lol.

there were some very interesting "live" bet options for unders 160 etc at half time

gee bloody whiz, dont want that one again

Im going to wait one hour before the game next time. lol. that freaked me out. 1st quarter was crazy business.


Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 May 2018 at 9:24am
Ive worked out how to word this, despite last night scare.

When a bookie sets a line for a wet game, lets say they set it at 148, which is more likely in a wet game, allowing for 40 points either side of the 148 line

108 points?

or

188 points?

Which would you lean towards being more likely?

You know the answer

Thats why the line is wrong and generous.
A dramatic swing either side of the line, is far more likely to be UNDER the line.
Thats why its value
Back to Top
oneonesit View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 06 Aug 2012
Status: Offline
Points: 11028
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 May 2018 at 10:46am
You have a most odd way of analysing prices Redemption. Fact is the bookies got the line wrong - they rated it about 10 points too low - not high (as you are trying to argue). You took $1.65 for under 150.5 - you fell in at 150. If you had taken the $1.90 even stevens price the line was around 140 so your unders bet would have lost.
To suggest the bookies set lines too high for matches played in the wet is ridiculous. This thread will end up in the scrap heap like all the others you have started over the years.
Scientist & Global Warming Expert
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 May 2018 at 11:41am
Hang on a second.

The facts of the matter are this...

The game only just went overs. It's not like we were completely off.

I was factoring in a little bit of rain to fall during the game (didn't happen l know) But imagine if there was rain about. The total wouldn't have got to 100. It rained on and off all day but we got nothing for the game. A little bit stiff.

Also,

A 3rd gamer kicked 7 goals. You probably won't see that again for another decade.

That's what it took for the game to just reach overs.

It was the right bet to make. It just didn't happen for us. That's the punt.

Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 May 2018 at 11:48am
Love how people come in here to put the boots in when a bet gets rolled.

It's impossible to go at 100%.

And as for last night, Redemption hit his under 150.5. And l did tip Sydney at the $2.50.

This thread has promise. I'll be the first person to get up and leave if l think it's going nowhere.
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:30pm
I don't know why l'm playing around with the totals. I got dicked by Mother Nature. No rain at the G last night or today.

Just keep it simple and back who's going to win. Sydney $2.50. Carlton $4.00.
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2018 at 5:17pm
Crows v Dogs tonight

The showers look steady, coming in nice and consistently on radar and predicted to last until 10pm

The line is too high, its set at 169.5

Ive bet it

Crows can score heavily but I think Dogs can tighten this game up.

Again, I say, do you like the chances of this game being 199 points, or 139 points?
Thats 30 points either side of the line

I know which one I prefer

Unders is a great chance tonight, 169.5
Back to Top
stayer View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 10 Aug 2010
Status: Offline
Points: 7581
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2018 at 5:24pm
I've had a bet on the dogs to win for fun. Crows missing a lot of good players, dogs probably feeling more confidence, and it's wet. Worth a spec on the dogs for something to watch in the corner of your eye at the pub.
"She's going through a growth phase." - GW
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2018 at 5:39pm
The TAB have a special bet up this week that's caught my eye. No team for the round to score 120+ at $7.

The only dangers in my opinion are Port against GC and Melbourne against Carlton. I can't see any other mob getting to 120.

It's worth a crack at the $7.
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2018 at 8:02pm
Pissing down Redemption. Looking very good my friend.
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 10244
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2018 at 8:20pm
Anyone got how many tickets are actually sold in Shanghai?

Port should have a raffle, like those ones pubs have when you have to nominate how many smarties are in the jar and nearest selection wins

I predict 100 tickets sold, but amazingly it will be a "sell out".

Best bet for the round is Kochie saying it was a great success, oh wait a minute he is in London for the wedding.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2018 at 9:04pm
This game is the quintessential example of the line being miles too high
5pm tonight, the line was 169.5
by 6pm, it was still 168.5

they may not even make it to 70, let alone 170

its a licensed to print money. they set the line miles too high. they kept making the same mistake last year

Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1083
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2018 at 10:09pm
Freo v Kangas on Sunday in Perth

10mm to 20mm rain predicted

The line is still set too high
152.5

Betting under the line here.
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2018 at 1:51am
Already down to 145.5 with most corporates.

Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1234>
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 11.10
Copyright ©2001-2017 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 0.078 seconds.