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Bet of the Round

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Redemption View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Bet of the Round
    Posted: 13 Apr 2018 at 10:18am
Just a new thread, instead of under the AFL thread
I will do one bet a round per week.
Hope you all remember that I said Dusty Martin was value at $4 to $5 for the Norm Smith, given that he was a 50% chance on average to poll best on ground in 2017. :)


Bet of the round folks, is score total UNDER 167.5 points Adelaide v Collingwood. odds $1.90

The weather coming at Adelaide city looks bleak to say the least.
Crows are a very high scoring side, so its a slight flirt with danger.

Two factors: the rain will come.
The wind is expected to be 50kph. Very hard to kick straight.

Also, Collingwood on the rebound, will go the length of ground, wasting time, but then not necessarily score, as Crows can stop them.
So its always hard for scores to be too big, when one team runs the length of ground wasting the clock, but then doesnt even score in the offensive 50 arc.
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MJB View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2018 at 10:35pm
Well done. Must have been a nervous last two minutes for you! I thought you were absolutely cruising during the match but the game really opened up late. What put it in danger was the fact the rain stopped and it appeared to dry out a bit.

I backed Collingwood at the plus 31.5 at evens. I feel like a bit of an idiot. I should have had something on the win.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2018 at 11:08pm
Gee whiz. Seriously, what happened then. as you said, cruising.
I had "plenty" on the bet I wrote above. Talk about sweaty palms.

Game wasnt to script
Pies piled on goals, crows did nothing, rain stopped.

Got the win, will let it ride next week.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 9:14am
Okay, let it ride
last night win,

Richmond v Brisbane, score under 173.5, odds $1.90

winds and rains about to hit melbourne, and looks even worse than what adelaide got last night.

mcg has incredible drainage though
so more about the wind and the actual rain hitting ball and top off grass, slippery.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 10:59am
Forum, get on the bet above
the weather is actually violent in Melbourne.
they may barely make it to 120 points, let alone 174
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 11:08am
Agreed. The wind is going to play havoc. And Richmond have a mean defence on their day. Unders is the right bet. But the bookies are dropping their totals by the minute. I've taken 170.5. And you'd imagine it will continue to drop. I wonder what the total was last night? If you can predict the weather then you can usually catch them napping a few days out
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 1:38pm
See how we go
Last night $1,000, got the $1,900 collect

Let it ride, $1900, I got the Under 173.5 Under, odds $1.90

Bookies keep rolling it down, it may even start at 155 points.

170.5 is still good. 
Woeful conditions.
Its not that grounds get boggy anymore, gone are those day.
But its raining so hard, ball will certainly be butterfingers today.
Its all physics, the mathematical fact is, its hard to get to 180 points even on a dry game, but to waste so much time, slipping, ball going out of bounds, packs around the ball, the clock just gets eaten up.

I honestly think they may not even get to 120 points today
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 1:56pm
Sportsbet are betting $4 on 150 points or less. I've taken that.

Hopefully we get a bit more rain throughout the day to help us out. Start doing a rain dance!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 2:09pm
The sun is out now. Typical Melbourne weather
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 3:45pm
under 150 is looking good MJB, because Richmond will probably spend the last 15 minutes of the game just chipping it around, taking players off, shutting game down, and prepare for next week
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 4:20pm
Easy money Redemption. Never in doubt.

Buttering up on anything tonight?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 4:37pm
I was almost right, they staggered just past 120 points. lol

Will keep an eye on weather radars.
I like to bet the radars and wet games, because its just so hard to get clean possession.
eats up the clock, so you are betting on physics, not so much luck.

The problem with games at etihad etc, lets say the line is 170 points, over or under, is a team can have a shock in front of goal, and kick heaps of behinds, or on the flipside, can have a blinder and kick straight all night, making the scores huge.
So its very hard to predict dry games and best to leave them alone.

well done MJ Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 4:49pm
With regards to Etihad - when the roof is closed l like to take the overs, but when the roof is open l go under. That little theory has worked well for me so far this season. With night games they've been opening the roof which is a first. Weather permitting of course.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 10:24am
No Bets this week MJB
Slow and steady wins the race
There is no standouts.
Agree about Etihad roof.

What always concerns me about dry conditions, is unders/overs match total points, become horribly unpredictable because it can either be a tight game, an open game, pathetic strike rate at set shots at goal, or great strike rate.
Its simply too hard to predict.

The wet games bring physics into it that naturally chew up the clock and the ball is just so damn hard to pick up.
What we are doing is actually betting on the accuracy of the weather radar.
You can get even better odds two days out, if you trust radar, but still good to wait the day prior, or the morning of the game.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Heavy10 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Apr 2018 at 8:31am
Thoughts on Lions v Sun's under 176.5? Not the greatest weather up here, 4.40pm game at Gabba is always dewy..plus both teams desperate for a win, can't see free flowing footy.

Also Stefan Martin looks value at $9.00 for medal
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Apr 2018 at 9:57am
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

No Bets this week MJB
Slow and steady wins the race
There is no standouts.
Agree about Etihad roof.

What always concerns me about dry conditions, is unders/overs match total points, become horribly unpredictable because it can either be a tight game, an open game, pathetic strike rate at set shots at goal, or great strike rate.
Its simply too hard to predict.

The wet games bring physics into it that naturally chew up the clock and the ball is just so damn hard to pick up.
What we are doing is actually betting on the accuracy of the weather radar.
You can get even better odds two days out, if you trust radar, but still good to wait the day prior, or the morning of the game.
I think your onto something here Redemption. Are you saying "heavy" conditions have a high probability of reducing the score ? Keep it to yourself (& TBV members) for Christs sake - the longer we keep the bookies in the dark the better. Also I love your new found punting discipline - very impressive !
Scientist & Global Warming Expert
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Apr 2018 at 10:43am
Incredible round so far in the footy. 7 games played and all 7 have been under. And they've gone unders by a fair margin too. 4 of the 7 have been under 150.

2 games left.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Apr 2018 at 5:23pm
Its raining in Melbourne, should prove to be a bit slippery.
Talk of the town is Demons will play up to 4 guys on Dusty. So maybe there is a defensive plan to shut the game down.
But Im going to leave this game alone.
The line over under is 174.5 points.
I dont think they will make it to 174, but Im not betting, leaving this game alone
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Apr 2018 at 5:50pm
The G can handle a bit of rain so l think the conditions won't be bad at all. But l wouldn't be touching the total either.

Melbourne have this terrible habit of losing a quarter by 4-5 goals. They keep doing it. If they do that again tonight they will lose comfortably. So with that in mind, l'm going with Richmond at the minus.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Apr 2018 at 12:20am
Nice Bet MJB

Well done
And spot on
They got smashed in the last quarter.

The ball was slippery all night.
The MCG actually has heaters under the surface, dryers (from what I last heard anyway), so it never gets too bad, however wet still sits on surface, winter it gets dewy when the real cold comes, and they are bet games too.
All you want it is for be like soap, hard to pick up, hard to mark, so sometimes it doesnt need rain, just very cold and the grass holds some dew for the night games.

Ideal games are showers for the entire game, constant wet, and if you know its coming 2 days prior, get on.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Apr 2018 at 12:53am
Yes because you’re the only person on earth who would know that showers are coming. The bookmakers would never know it, let alone be smart enough to set the line accordingly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Apr 2018 at 8:20pm
Of course they know its coming, but that doesnt mean they dont set the line too high
They do set it too high.
They bait punters who "dont" factor the rain.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Apr 2018 at 10:31pm
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Of course they know its coming, but that doesnt mean they dont set the line too high
They do set it too high.
They bait punters who "dont" factor the rain.




This of course is garbage and just highlights that what you know about punting could be written on the back of a postage stamp. Sometimes the line will be too high, sometimes too low and sometimes spot on. They don’t deliberately set it too high to bait anyone. If they did they would get crunched by the sharps (not you).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Apr 2018 at 7:30pm
Oh really genius.
Judge us at the end of the season to see how this actually goes.

This is how much you know, they often set it a whopping 50 points too high for a wet game
They set it at 155 even 165, 175, and the score ends up barely even making it to 120 let alone 165.

If its set at 165, and the score is 180, then good luck with that.
Physics determines the score is jard to reach 150 in a wet game, I will go with physics over your garbage.
Bookies can be as wrong as 50 point in a wet game.  Happens many times through a season.
The key is in knowing what game to choose when you recognise the line is indeed too high.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 5:27am
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Oh really genius.
Judge us at the end of the season to see how this actually goes.

This is how much you know, they often set it a whopping 50 points too high for a wet game
They set it at 155 even 165, 175, and the score ends up barely even making it to 120 let alone 165.

If its set at 165, and the score is 180, then good luck with that.
Physics determines the score is jard to reach 150 in a wet game, I will go with physics over your garbage.
Bookies can be as wrong as 50 point in a wet game.  Happens many times through a season.
The key is in knowing what game to choose when you recognise the line is indeed too high.




Another magnificent example of your cluelessness. The line is set whereby 50% of the time the actual result will be over and 50% of the time it will be under. Just because a score goes over by 15 points doesn’t mean the line was wrong. Bookmakers get it wrong often but not by 50 points. There are 50 point blowouts but that doesn’t mean the line should have been different by 50 points. When you post laughable stuff like that it just highlights why you’re relegated to posting hilarious conspiracy theories and pretending that you invented a casino game to impress complete strangers on an Internet forum.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 10:17am
LOL

Moron, if the line is 170 for a wet game, at $1.90. that means the game MUST reach over 170 points.
$1.90 chance to reach over 170 in a wet game??

Thats called a FALSE FAVOURITE
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 3:47pm
Settle down fellas. This thread has started off hot with plenty of winners. Not one losing tip yet. Negativity is not allowed. Good vibes only please.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 8:23pm
MJB,  live betting, Dogs V Blues

Its quarter time

William Hill, Dogs -40.5,  $3.50

I think thats value

Im throwing a hundy on that, just a little wager to start the round.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 8:41pm
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

LOL

Moron, if the line is 170 for a wet game, at $1.90. that means the game MUST reach over 170 points.
$1.90 chance to reach over 170 in a wet game??

Thats called a FALSE FAVOURITE



Wrong spaz. It means 50% of the time it will go under 170 & 50% of the time it will go over. Assuming the price correctly, which they usually do within a couple of points. You are truly clueless.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 8:57pm
I'm on the Dogs to score 90+ at $2.15. It's my last leg of a multi. 50 at half time. Should be able to get 40 in the 2nd half.

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