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Best Value ?

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Maximillions View Drop Down
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    Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 7:27am
Who is the best value Stallion right now ?
Forget the odds.....You are Unstoppable !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sweetvictory Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 8:27am

Danewin if you can get him to fire with your mare. I think he is great price for the quality. shame about the fertility.

Testa Rossa, Danzero and Strategic are not far behind :)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 8:35am
Danzero is very good value for a proven stallion. Nice horse to use with a maiden mare if you want to get her off to a good start.

Can't agree with Testa Rossa, he is overs for mine.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VSP. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 8:54am
Danzero - good racehorse, good sire, good seller, plenty of opportunities still ahead of him. Great for a maiden mare with his size and strength.
Breed to race - Umatilla would be hard to go past if the prices recently quoted on the forum are correct.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote interested Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 11:42am
Any of the Darley "freebies" are probably good value, wouldn't you think!
(Moet and all you can eat thrown in to boot)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote birricannia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 5:19pm

Falvalon.

Also Show a Heart & Blevic. (Bite The Bullet to race)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hobby Horse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 8:07pm
Spinning World is going very well at the moment .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Xolento Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 8:47pm
Originally posted by sweetvictory sweetvictory wrote:

Danewin if you can get him to fire with your mare. I think he is great price for the quality. shame about the fertility.

Testa Rossa, Danzero and Strategic are not far behind :)


Danewin is an amazingly underrated stallion; As a comparison Flying Spur, another Group One winning son of Danehill (USA), just like Danewin, retired to stud in the same year 1996 and has 1204 live foals, Danewin has just 407, so roughly a third of the numbers of his peer.

Despite the disadvantage of lack of numbers, Danewin has produced 19 stakes-winners, five of them Group One winners and has 8.5% stakes-winners to runners, a statistic that puts him up there with the very best stallions.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reng Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 9:15pm
Stallion Name Foals Starters Winners SW Gr1  Service Fee  State %SW
Redoute's Choice 548 344 240 41 13  $        330,000 NSW 7.48%
Dehere 434 318 232 29 3  $          44,000 NSW 6.68%
Flying Spur 883 690 471 59 9  $        137,500 NSW 6.68%
Danewin 327 225 153 20 5  $          22,000 NSW 6.12%
Rock of Gibraltar 213 89 43 13 1  $          82,500 NSW 6.10%
Encosta de Lago 974 699 442 51 11  $        302,500 NSW 5.24%
Royal Academy 770 555 384 40 3  $          27,500 NSW 5.19%
Exceed and Excel 101 38 12 5 0  $        110,000 NSW 4.95%
More than Ready 313 181 123 15 4  $        110,000 NSW 4.79%
Spinning World 371 258 184 17 6  $          11,000 NSW 4.58%
King of Roses 47 22 11 2 0  $          12,500 VIC 4.26%
Testa Rossa 347 225 153 14 0  $          38,500 NSW 4.03%
Bite the Bullet 474 332 234 19 1  $            6,600 NSW 4.01%
General Nediym 541 372 277 21 1  $          60,500 NSW 3.88%
Canny Lad 1163 813 558 43 9  $          22,000 NSW 3.70%
Umatilla 822 580 349 29 5  $            5,500 VIC 3.53%
Danzero 801 530 346 28 6  $          27,500 NSW 3.50%
Quest for Fame 870 583 356 30 7  $          11,000 NSW 3.45%
Oamaru Force 29 13 4 1 0  $            4,400 VIC 3.45%
Tale of the Cat 320 182 102 11 1  $          33,000 NSW 3.44%
Desert Sun 741 533 326 24 3  POA  VIC 3.24%
Good Journey 62 19 10 2 1  $          18,000 SA 3.23%
Brocco 342 264 153 11 1  $            3,850 WA 3.22%
Blevic 508 335 185 16 1  $            5,500 SA 3.15%
Danasinga 763 493 290 24 2  $          16,500 NSW 3.15%
Gallo di Ferro 131 85 51 4 0  $            4,400 SA 3.05%
The problem with Opportunity is that it wears overalls and looks like work.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reng Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 9:19pm
All stallions in the 08 stallion register with more than 3%SW/foals (SH only).
 
Note that the average for the breed is around 1.5% SW/foals - and these horses fit in my good-excellent brackets.  Truly great is over 10%, like Danehill's 14% or Northern Dancers 25%.
 
Any horse on this list is going to give you a pretty good chance. 
 
The only thing to watch out for are horses that have few foals and a single stakes winner (like Oamaru Force).  These sort of horses could go either way, ie keep on producing at this rate, or the stakes winner is their best horse (an infamous example is Painted Black)...
 
Like I said before - all statistics need interpretation and a horse that is on this list (with more than 1 SW) that has started from a low service fee (Gallo di Ferro) demands more respect than an Elusive Quality who started at a high fee and whose Gr1 winner is from a Gr1 winner.
The problem with Opportunity is that it wears overalls and looks like work.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote whitters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 9:37pm
Umatilla without question, if whe're talking breed to race.
 Sensational value.  And commercially, NOTHING seems to stay good value for very long. Bit like playing the long term futures market whilst standing under a cold shower ripping up $100 bills.LOL But it takes money to make money. The key is to jag one on the way up. Good luck.
Always liked Royal Academy for value but they have doubts about him this season. Danewin also but obviously has his problems. Spinning World was a favourite but noone wants to pay much for them so that does not make him value in my book.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Buckpasser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2008 at 9:56pm
Whitters, if you are breeding to sell you can still make as much money with a good mare going to a value sire that does the job in the short term. SWorld, Danewin, Danasinga, Royal Academy etc selling an 80k+ yearling gives a better margin than a 150k yearling from the same mare sired by ROG or GeneralN or a 200k yearling by MTR or FS. Not as sexy I know but nets you as much and less risk. Then, if your mare produces a stakes winner she becomes very valuable and you can sell her to a sheik or a mining magnate.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote whitters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 2:59am
Agreed Buck. Wholeheartedly in fact!!! I mentioned that I thought Royal Academy was good value but they are concerned for his fertility this season. He is getting on and they are a little worried for him. That puts him in the risky camp along with Danewin. Risky as in will your mare get in foal or not?. Sorry I don't do those risks.
They can be consistent up to and around 100k sellers though. Agreed.
 
Don't know if I agree with Spinning World's stock selling for good money anymore though. Maybe the very very odd one. So I see him as a breed to race and a good one too. 
 
Danasinga as you mention is a funny one. He has done well but now that there are just so many Danehill sons about. I doubt his selling ability going forwards.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 3:14am
Reng's stats are absolutely terrific, a great piece of research, and very helpful re younger stallions in particular.
 
The problem is however with the older fellows, and some in particular which I'll choose not to name if only because I've done some work on them and not others.
 
And it's that the stakeswinners to starters/foals percentage is correct but yet skewed.  For example there's one there with a percentage around 3.5%.  However it was close to triple that in respect of his first few crops before gradually slowing to near a halt re his current 3-5yo's.
 
All I'm saying I guess is that historical data can sometimes be misleading in today's world, and you need to be aware of that reality when assessing potential matings.
It's hard to soar with eagles...

Cheers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bagman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 4:08am
The best value stallion died recently and IMHO the heirs apparent are Beautiful Crown, Bite the Bullet then daylight.
I don't have one
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Track Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 4:09am
Reng
 
What happens to order of merit if you look at stakes placings as a %rather than stakes wins?
 
Do you have the stats for stakes places?  If so, do share.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote travo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 4:26am
Originally posted by reng reng wrote:

Stallion Name Foals Starters Winners SW Gr1  Service Fee  State %SW
Redoute's Choice 548 344 240 41 13  $        330,000 NSW 7.48%
Dehere 434 318 232 29 3  $          44,000 NSW 6.68%
Flying Spur 883 690 471 59 9  $        137,500 NSW 6.68%
Danewin 327 225 153 20 5  $          22,000 NSW 6.12%
Rock of Gibraltar 213 89 43 13 1  $          82,500 NSW 6.10%
Encosta de Lago 974 699 442 51 11  $        302,500 NSW 5.24%
Royal Academy 770 555 384 40 3  $          27,500 NSW 5.19%
Exceed and Excel 101 38 12 5 0  $        110,000 NSW 4.95%
More than Ready 313 181 123 15 4  $        110,000 NSW 4.79%
Spinning World 371 258 184 17 6  $          11,000 NSW 4.58%
King of Roses 47 22 11 2 0  $          12,500 VIC 4.26%
Testa Rossa 347 225 153 14 0  $          38,500 NSW 4.03%
Bite the Bullet 474 332 234 19 1  $            6,600 NSW 4.01%
General Nediym 541 372 277 21 1  $          60,500 NSW 3.88%
Canny Lad 1163 813 558 43 9  $          22,000 NSW 3.70%
Umatilla 822 580 349 29 5  $            5,500 VIC 3.53%
Danzero 801 530 346 28 6  $          27,500 NSW 3.50%
Quest for Fame 870 583 356 30 7  $          11,000 NSW 3.45%
Oamaru Force 29 13 4 1 0  $            4,400 VIC 3.45%
Tale of the Cat 320 182 102 11 1  $          33,000 NSW 3.44%
Desert Sun 741 533 326 24 3  POA  VIC 3.24%
Good Journey 62 19 10 2 1  $          18,000 SA 3.23%
Brocco 342 264 153 11 1  $            3,850 WA 3.22%
Blevic 508 335 185 16 1  $            5,500 SA 3.15%
Danasinga 763 493 290 24 2  $          16,500 NSW 3.15%
Gallo di Ferro 131 85 51 4 0  $            4,400 SA 3.05%
 
What about COMMANDS - 2nd in last years sire lists behind Encosta?
It's only a rort if you're not in it.......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bagman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 4:38am
What about COMMANDS - 2nd in last years sire lists behind Encosta? On earnings yes, consistent quality ........... NO.
I don't have one
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Silk Ali Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 5:30am
Testa Rossa is good value for mine. One of those stallions that has good stats but hasnt produced any genuine stars...therefore remains at an ok service fee.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote zimstar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 5:43am
mookta- stands at $2,200!!
 
BARGAIN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Riceman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 6:09am
It is dangerous trying to pick best value when one is not sure what value needs to be measured? It is also dangerous to forget than one man's trash is another man's treasure. LOLWink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Maximillions Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 6:53am
In this Spinning World, one should Bite the Bullet and make sure they are More than ready for a Good Journey, a sort of Quest for Fame, something that Commands a Canny Lad to bask in the Desert Sun.......(continued by others)
Forget the odds.....You are Unstoppable !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Maximillions Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 6:54am
Comon U lot
Forget the odds.....You are Unstoppable !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cityboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 3:31pm
I haven't been breeding for the past few years so I'm not following things as closely as I used to, but based on Reng's figures above Dehere looks pretty good value
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reng Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 4:23pm
pm me if you want other figures, I have heaps, but need to tailor them to your questions which takes time.
 
RFF, I take your point about aging and I have done some work on comparing the first three crops performance with the whole life performance, but I need more data before coming to a solid conclusion.  There are examples where a horse stays pretty constant throughout his life and others who wax and wane.
The problem with Opportunity is that it wears overalls and looks like work.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Buckpasser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 5:44pm
Reng, I've always come to the conclusion that stallions rarely drop off themselves without other circumstances coming into play - fashions change therefore mare quality drops off so the progeny tend to be raised at less successful farms therefore dont make the better sales so therefore end up with lesser trainers etc.
 
Spinning World is a case in point. A handful of Gr 1 class horses in 2008 yet there has been no progeny excepted into MM or Easter (combination of fashion and mare quality) the last couple of years yet Gai's handy stakes winning mare (name escapes me) was a 250k yearling at Easter just before that because she was a well reared nice type from a good mother.
 
Danasinga is another interesting one. Dominated in his first few crops but his percentages dropped a little when Pins and O'Reilly started getting the better Waikato stud mares. Has since turned into an Asian sensation, has been relocated to a pool of more suitable mares for a Danehill son and has names like Harvey, Krishan, White etc supporting him to keep mare quality up. Averaged 100k at MM so big return on fee with the best Waikato numbers to come and Baramul, Invermein & Kia Ora breds just 2.
 
I have been a huge Bite The Bullet fan over the years but his results dont seem to have kicked since the broodmare base he is serving has changed. Did a great job with the mares he served at Scone and really did a lot of producing several good runners from the one mare.
 
I'm using Dehere this year for myself, but his figures are skewd by not having had a big number of young horses after having had a few years off (something that also keeps TOTC on the boards) while I have little time for Testa Rossa (those early season dodgy listeds in Melbourne skewed his figures).
 
I really think it is a great time to reverse the trend of over breeding mares and chasing first season sires. Better mares to cheaper proven stallions, lower input costs and produce a better, safer article with same net profits short term but more chance of upgrading mares longer term is the safe and smart way to go and you have much more chance of finding the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Riceman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 6:30pm
Very smart thinking there Buckpasser except I would change the word "safe" to the term "less risky". The game is all about minimise risks and the rest will take care of itself. BOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Buckpasser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 6:34pm
Correct Rice. It's already a risky business, why add more?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reng Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 9:25pm
Agree, but the issue is the horse breeding is generally done by short term investors who follow trends and want to feel like they own something luxurous (like a yacht).  This creates a fashion market where everyone wants something new and trendy.  Thus making the proven good quality older ticket items less interesting. 
 
It's the same reason people buy new furniture or clothes even though what they have is comfortable.
The problem with Opportunity is that it wears overalls and looks like work.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Buckpasser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2008 at 9:31pm
Ah, that last statement might explain why I still drive a Kingswood and look like an extra from 'Robin's Nest' (for those old enough to remember) when I go out. Why did the safari suit ever go out of fashion?
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