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Baron Archer probe

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2015 at 1:14am
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Commonsense says if it is that marked, the shorteners must be profitable to back, as presumably 33% of favourites still win, give or take a percent or two. But it certainly was not that way when I looked at bulk figures, but that era may be irrelevant to the present situation.

Max, if you assume that the overt drifters are weighted by stable knowledge, it is then completely unrelated whether a shortening favourite is a good chance or not.

It is far, far easier to get one beat than it is to win. Inside knowledge that a horse is flying helps. But inside knowledge that a horse has had a throat operation and can't breathe, and we plan to forget to notify the stewards, does a little more than help.

The only correlation is that the field against the horse drifting has a better than average chance. And that's exactly the same as laying the horse. Absolutely no possible conclusion that favourites hard in the market have a better than average chance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2015 at 1:25am

I think you need to quantify what you consider the loss % would be from backing favourites that have blown, and what movement there has to be in price to qualify as such, otherwise it isn't going to mean much. If your criteria are only met in say, 10% of races, I agree it won't make sense to start backing the others.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2015 at 1:33am
Max you're missing my point. If a heavily drifting favourite is doing so because there is stable knowledge it can't win, what connection does that have to a favourite in a completely different race that is hard in the market?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2015 at 1:36am
One thing I remember looking at was horses that had been laid for amounts well beyond what their price suggested they should, for example a horse that was third in the market but had the most matched bets $. Not much in that either.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2015 at 1:41am
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Max you're missing my point. If a heavily drifting favourite is doing so because there is stable knowledge it can't win, what connection does that have to a favourite in a completely different race that is hard in the market?
You have introduced an unknowable factor, that the connections know it can't win, which is of no use unless you are "in" on this info. I took you original suggestion to be more a generic situation where heavily laid, drifting favourites lose inordinately, which needs to be quantified to be meaningful.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2015 at 1:44am
I used the final price Vs weighted average price, if the final price was significantly shorter than WAP, it was deemed a shortener.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2015 at 7:40am
Originally posted by Hollywood Hollywood wrote:

Isn't it ironic that the same people who fought hard not to allow Betfair into Australia are the same people who now use it to help with their job .......


No. This is the very reason they didnt want Betfair.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2015 at 7:44pm

Jason Warren fined $17,500

  • 15 May, 2015
  • |Ben Asgari - 
Baron Archer

Baron Archer (Image courtesy of Slickpix)

Trainer Jason Warren has been fined $17,500 by the Racing Appeals and Disciplinary (RAD) Board after pleading guilty to two separate charges regarding his horse Baron Archer.

Warren pleaded guilty to intentionally failing to report to stewards by acceptance time that Baron Archer had undergone throat surgery before he ran third in the VOBIS Gold River (1400m) at Echuca on March 8.

He also pleaded guilty to making a false or misleading statement during a stewards’ inquiry on March 8 as to whether he had reported Baron Archer’s throat surgery to the stewards in accordance with the rules.

Warren was convicted and fined $10,000 for the first charge and was convicted and fined $10,000 for the second charge, of which $7,500 is made cumulative with the first fine.

Speaking on behalf of the RAD Board, Judge Russell Lewis said the explanation Warren provided as to why he failed to report Baron Archer’s throat surgery to stewards was far from persuasive and that it seemed extraordinary that a trainer of Warren’s experience would fail to notify stewards.

In relation to assessing the second charge of making a false or misleading statement during a stewards’ inquiry, Judge Lewis said the integrity of racing was paramount.

This ends the investigation into Warren’s involvement, however, there is still an ongoing probe into other parties surrounding the betting patterns of the race in which Baron Archer finished third at Echuca.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2015 at 11:22pm
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

I copped a lot on here a few years ago when I told everyone about Melhams ways, even commented on a ride that he hooked it, for which he was suspended for, only for some bizarre reason by VCAT to overturn it.
Seems the lure of an easy buck is still too much to resist. Shame, he's shown in the last 18 months he's a brilliant jockey when he tries to win.

Melham is a Max Rooke, always has been.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 12:01am
Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:

Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

I copped a lot on here a few years ago when I told everyone about Melhams ways, even commented on a ride that he hooked it, for which he was suspended for, only for some bizarre reason by VCAT to overturn it.
Seems the lure of an easy buck is still too much to resist. Shame, he's shown in the last 18 months he's a brilliant jockey when he tries to win.

Melham is a Max Rooke, always has been.
The data doesn't support your assertion. His last 3000 rides shows a small profit at bestof3+SP
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 8:48am
So you can't be open to a pull up and still be a profitable jockey to follow?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:05pm
Data schmata. The bloke has the integrity of Vladimir Putin.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:12pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

So you can't be open to a pull up and still be a profitable jockey to follow?
Can't be too much pulling-up going on, with the figures I quoted. The figures would have turned to krap if there was.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:14pm
Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:

Data schmata. The bloke has the integrity of Vladimir Putin.
Data beats guessing any day.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:28pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:

Data schmata. The bloke has the integrity of Vladimir Putin.
Data beats guessing any day.


How do you know I'm guessing?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:33pm
Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:

Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:

Data schmata. The bloke has the integrity of Vladimir Putin.
Data beats guessing any day.


How do you know I'm guessing?
Explain how he has that ROI if doing what you claim.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:41pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

So you can't be open to a pull up and still be a profitable jockey to follow?
Can't be too much pulling-up going on, with the figures I quoted. The figures would have turned to krap if there was.

How much impact on ROI would 5 hooks have on stats based on 3,000 rides? How much impact on the industry would evidence of 5 hooks have? I can't see how ROI over 3,000 rides means he's never pulled one up. I'd rather you say you analysed every ride and they were all clean.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:44pm
You are worrying about 5 alleged bodgie rides out of 3000 ? And let me guess, you backed those 5, but not the other 2995 ? LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:49pm
......on the other hand, if I thought a jockey was pulling, say, 20% of the rides, I would retire permanently from backing anything they ever rode, and forget about the grief they may have caused me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:52pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

You are worrying about 5 alleged bodgie rides out of 3000 ? And let me guess, you backed those 5, but not the other 2995 ? LOL

No, mate.  It's entirely hypothetical.  I'm simply demonstrating that you're wrong when you suggest he can't have ever pulled a horse up because he returns a profit over his last 3,000 rides.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 9:58pm
Bottom line thus far is that there's been no publicly available evidence to suggest the jockey was in any way complicit.
 
And if that remains the case there's a couple or more on here whose comments might make it very hard for the Mayor when the lawyers knock on his door.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 10:00pm

I'll say it again, you can't be systematically "slowing" horses and return those figures, which are well above average. There would be many jockeys with figures that could be construed as signs of incompetence or crookedness, or both, but showing positive ROI isn't one of those signs.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 10:29pm
I don't think anyone could get away with "systematically" slowing horses to begin with.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 10:34pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

I don't think anyone could get away with "systematically" slowing horses to begin with.
Oh, I would not be so sure about that. I can think of several "suspects". Some of them very well known names. A bloke I know  proved it to me by forensic accounting. Shocking really, working in tandem with bookie(s) for sure. One big name in bookmaking virtually admitted it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2015 at 10:52pm
Poor choice of cockney slang if it's the same Max Rooke I'm thinking of. A harder trier you'll be unlikely to find.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2015 at 11:51am

No charges at the end of the Baron Archer probe

Brad Waters - 30 Jun 2015

Racing Victoria stewards have decided against laying charges after completing their investigation into the Baron Archer affair.

Baron Archer went down as a $3.10 favourite in a race at Echuca in March but stewards immediately opened an investigation into the matter after learning of irregular betting patterns on the event.

Baron Archer was heavily laid to lose the race on Betfair, which prompted stewards to interview "a number of licenced participants” while analysing accounts held with other wagering agencies.

Baron Archer’s trainer Jason Warren was fined $17,500 for failing to report the fact Baron Archer had undergone throat surgery before the race and for providing false evidence to stewards.

Stewards also analysed phone records obtained from relevant parties but decided against laying charges.

However, stewards could reopen the investigation should they obtain further information.

Warren has applied to the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal for a review of the penalty.

Baron Archer was subsequently transferred to another Mornington trainer Wez Hunter.



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