Please visit VillageBet for free horse racing tips - Click here now
Forum Home Forum Home > Horse Racing - Public Forums > Racing Forum
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Avilius
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login


Click here for the Thoroughbred Village Home Page. For village news, follow @TBVillage on Twitter. For horseracing tips, follow @Villagebet on Twitter. To contact the Mayor by email: Click Here.

Avilius

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <12345 8>
Author
Message
scamanda View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 11 Oct 2008
Location: The Manor
Status: Offline
Points: 16212
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 4:18pm
Godolphin stuffed up by pulling Hartnell from the Caul Cup for the Cox Plate/Melb Cup.
Now with Avilius they have thrown away their best chance of a Grp 1 for a chance to win the Melb Cup, via the Caul Cup?

He's very capable of winning the CC and I hope he does because I've been on him for weeks and had nothing on for the Metrop but the reasoning for him not running is clear enough.

The Sheik has already won a Caul Cup with All The Good.(I think)
So far as I know he doesn't have a Cox Plate or Melb Cup winner so it seems Avilius must be their best chance to claim one for the Sheik, but he aint gonna be beaten up on Winx in the Cox Plate so it's gotta be the Melb Cup.

A mere consolation prize.
Cox Plate next year. lol
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
Back to Top
Sponsored Links
Click here to view the promotions at Bet Easy.


Back to Top
Heavenly Glow View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 24 Aug 2009
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1552
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Heavenly Glow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 4:28pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

The Metrop. field is very ordinary imo this year and I doubt very much had he won with 54kg the handicapper would give it much significance even though he has 53kg in the CC, what I'm trying to say is this, the Bart Cummings will have plenty of o/s form from all over the place and he could bump into a real rod in the pickle if you get my drift, wins the Metrop.all problems eliminated imo.

Magic Hurricane was penalised 2.5kgs for his Metrop win in 2015. If Avilius were to line up in the Metrop and smash that field - which he probably would have - then he'd be looking at a similar weight penalty. Perhaps even more than 2.5kgs.
Back to Top
Carioca View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 13 Nov 2015
Status: Offline
Points: 8381
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 4:51pm
So what race did he cop the extra 2-5kg for, I see he won with 55-5kg as you said but never won another race and carried 54-5 kg the following year in the Metrop.?
Back to Top
JudgeHolden View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 16 Apr 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 10929
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:22pm
Originally posted by Heavenly Glow Heavenly Glow wrote:

Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Got too much money has the blue team , they have foresaken the substance for the shadow, would have won the Metrop. on his ear and guaranteed a MC start imo, the last 67 Metrop. winners and placegetters are riddled with MC winners, now down the h/way reverse way form for the BC will come from all angles seeking a start as well, not the first time they pulled the wrong reign imo Hartnell in the Cox P. as against the CC, on Saturday with Kementari they knew the weather was going to be filthy and the WFA very strong so they ignored the weaker Sydney WFA , good weather and taking out the champ they could have run Second ( giving him an easy time) dropping 3kg in 14 days for an Epsom run even though D'Argent is weighted to win, nothing's guaranteed , however this is Avilious's thread , a future topliner and a Melbourne Cup is not beyond him where ever he goes.


The only thing I can think of is that they didn't want to get penalised for a Metrop win going into the Caulfield Cup and also get penalised for the Caulfield Cup (should they win it) going into the Melbourne Cup. It makes more sense to guarantee a start in the MC by winning the Bart Cummings (which I assume doesn't carry a weight penalty), then rolling the dice in the CC where the horse will be penalised for the Melbourne Cup if it won, but that is a good 5 million dollar problem to have. And it would only result in one penalty. 


Horse has got to get into the CC first. Currently 57th in order of entry. Would only get in with a penalty you’d think. Looks like they’re putting all their eggs in the MC basket.
Back to Top
Second Chance View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Dec 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 17317
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:36pm
Suspect they think he's brilliant enough to win one of the number of ballot-exempt CC qualifying races.

And reckon they could be right.
Back to Top
JudgeHolden View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 16 Apr 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 10929
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:44pm
Except they’re not going to those, they’re going to the BC. A non exempt (for the CC) G3 race.
Back to Top
Second Chance View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Dec 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 17317
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:39pm
Excuse my usual ignorance Judge, but what's the BC?
Back to Top
SHOVHOG View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 20 Apr 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 1077
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:40pm
Feel for the punters who Bet into this market and I dare say futures markets will lose a lot of future customers .....
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
Back to Top
JudgeHolden View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 16 Apr 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 10929
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:49pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Excuse my usual ignorance Judge, but what's the BC?


The Bart Cummings on Turnbull day. Can’t see him going from there to any of the CC exempt races. Reckon the odds of a CC start have plummeted.
Back to Top
Second Chance View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Dec 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 17317
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:56pm
Thanks Thumbs Up
Back to Top
Carioca View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 13 Nov 2015
Status: Offline
Points: 8381
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 7:35pm
Very similar profiles I find interesting , Rekindling D.O.B. March 2014, Avilius D.O.B.May 2014, both have had 10 starts, Rek. 4wins, AV.5wins, Rekindling is the one that interests me, winning the MC so young must have had a wonderful prep. and great lung capacity,at least this horse has had the extra year to develope, the thing that bugs me ( really lol) is this was not an original plan , Rekindling was.
Back to Top
Redemption View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 09 Apr 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1988
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Sep 2018 at 5:38pm
Some strange decisions going on with this horse.
In my opinion, the 2nd best horse currently in Australia.

But the decisions being made, it seems they may even go Cox Plate, to Melbourne Cup.
They certainly seem all about the Melbourne Cup now.
Cant blame them.

But why not the Metrop? Confusing. Metrop horses go good in Melbourne Cup I thought??

Either way, this is a serious horse.

Big Duke aint no slouch and Avilius skipped away from him at the 300m.
Back to Top
correctweight View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 20 May 2010
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 2538
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Oct 2018 at 10:29pm
At the price currently he is a massive lay. Very arrogant missing a Group 1 at his mercy to persue this race to get into the cup. Bow has barrier 1 on a short run into the corner will get burried 5 back on the fence and with Glyn on he might never get out in the straight. Needs big time luck.
Back to Top
Carioca View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 13 Nov 2015
Status: Offline
Points: 8381
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Oct 2018 at 10:48pm
The more I look at this horses last start the warmer I become , this has been a bold move by James and after seeing Dominic Bierne in the winning party after the Epsom the young mane has a great analogicall brain in his corner ( my take only) I hope this horse wins like the good horse he is , then it's on to the MC.
Back to Top
correctweight View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 20 May 2010
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 2538
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Oct 2018 at 11:09pm
Nothing wrong with his ability. Best horse in the race. Just the worst mapped horse in the field. Watch twitter explode after.
Back to Top
Carioca View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 13 Nov 2015
Status: Offline
Points: 8381
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Oct 2018 at 11:31pm
Suspect the field may string out a bit will give him a chance to get off the fence and in the running line and take it from there, ( well that's how I see it lol) .
Back to Top
Heavenly Glow View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 24 Aug 2009
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1552
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Heavenly Glow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 12:04am
Second best horse in Australia IMO. But I can't see him getting a clear run from the barrier. Will be hard held to the line, not even out of first gear, lap full of horse but no where to go. Be surprised if it even runs a place.
Back to Top
Sunline View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 22195
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 12:25am
Has 2500m of the biggest track in the country and a horse with a lightning turn of foot to find his way out.

Even Glyn can't f&%k this one Tongue.
Sunline...simply supreme
Back to Top
Dr E View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 05 Feb 2013
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 23341
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 12:35am
Hard to see anything beating him if he has any luck.
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
Back to Top
MJB View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 30 Nov 2017
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1599
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:09am
Glyn Schofield barrier 1 at Flemington. Disaster waiting to happen.

Leave me out of this one boys.
Back to Top
Prince of Penzance View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 17 Jan 2018
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1928
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Prince of Penzance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:29am
Surely it’s a sit and steer job for Glynn.
But what are the chances he buggers it up?

Still, I’ll having something on
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 15367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 8:38am
Copying what Williams does seems like a good MC plan to me.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
JudgeHolden View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 16 Apr 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 10929
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 8:53am
Hope he wins because I’d like to see him in the Cup, though I suppose he could still go to the Lexus, or whatever the hell they call it this year. I think the scratchings help, but those odds look pretty poisonous to me for a horse with his racing pattern. Hopefully out to 2500 he can settle closer.
Back to Top
scamanda View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 11 Oct 2008
Location: The Manor
Status: Offline
Points: 16212
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 9:50am
If Avilius gets beat today it won't be the barrier that beat him.
Barrier 1 at Flemington over 2500m = no consequence.

The weight he is carrying could be a game changer though.

He's been beating up on B graders with less weight but now has to give weight to the strongest field he has ever faced.

I think the big Flemington straight will suit his racing pattern and he will get to use his final sprint again to show why he is so highly regarded. Track bias ....................................

I started with nothing and still have most of it left
Back to Top
Bonfield View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 07 Nov 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 10142
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 10:19am
I think he's a good chance today but unlike others here I think it's an open race.
Back to Top
Nick View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 21 Mar 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 3308
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 10:27am
Will win!!
Back to Top
djebel View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Status: Online
Points: 39135
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 11:26am
I agree with Bonfield, Harder race than he has faced up here.




reductio ad absurdum



Back to Top
rusty nails View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 20 Mar 2013
Location: Sydney
Status: Online
Points: 3072
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 11:47am
Originally posted by JudgeHolden JudgeHolden wrote:

Hope he wins because I’d like to see him in the Cup, though I suppose he could still go to the Lexus, or whatever the hell they call it this year. I think the scratchings help, but those odds look pretty poisonous to me for a horse with his racing pattern. Hopefully out to 2500 he can settle closer.

With Glynn on board,and being so short,he is just as likely to settle with the clerk of the course
Back to Top
Prince of Penzance View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 17 Jan 2018
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 1928
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Prince of Penzance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 11:53am
I’m also having something on Yogi.
Wrong race for him last start, they wanted to run in the Naturalism but he was balloted out. Out to his right distance, he can run a cheeky race.
Would love to see a Raise the Flag in the MC
Back to Top
Jamal View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 25 Jul 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 5047
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by Prince of Penzance Prince of Penzance wrote:

I’m also having something on Yogi.
Wrong race for him last start, they wanted to run in the Naturalism but he was balloted out. Out to his right distance, he can run a cheeky race.
Would love to see a Raise the Flag in the MC



I agree.
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <12345 8>
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 11.10
Copyright ©2001-2017 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 0.047 seconds.