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scamanda View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Avilius
    Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 5:06pm
Winner at Australian debut today, albeit in against fairly moderate horses.
But, at least 6 off the lead at the 600m.
Ran through the line like he was just getting warmed up.
And the last 600m was run in 33.88, in a 1600m race.

His final 600 and especially his last furlong would read much better.

Godolphin may have found the perfect import to replace Hartnell.

I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Carioca View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 5:15pm
Very impressive Scamanda , agree with you there.
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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 5:20pm
Yep.  Lightly races stakes winner and Gp 2 placed last prep in GB and could be a very serious contender here.

Very much looking forward to our colleague Djebel's assessment of the horse, owners and trainer. Tongue
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scamanda View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 7:12pm
Official TimeLast 600
01:35.66
0:32.66
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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scamanda View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 7:12pm
Kementari next best 32.77
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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scamanda View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 7:19pm
Well until the last race, Soothing 32.37

I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 9:33pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Yep.  Lightly races stakes winner and Gp 2 placed last prep in GB and could be a very serious contender here.  Very much looking forward to our colleague Djebel's assessment of the horse, owners and trainer. Tongue  

bump.  Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 9:36pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Yep.  Lightly races stakes winner and Gp 2 placed last prep in GB and could be a very serious contender here.  Very much looking forward to our colleague Djebel's assessment of the horse, owners and trainer. Tongue  


bump.  Wink


Clearly a talented.

Clearly the people at Godolphin who pick the Europeans to come here are good judges.

I like James but he is the same as all Aussie trainers.



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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correctweight View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 9:38pm
Just wins the metrop if it goes there.
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Lord Hybrow View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 10:01pm
Next start?

Group 3 Premiers Cup 1900m at Rosehill in 3 weeks, perhaps?
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scamanda View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 5:51pm
Originally posted by Lord Hybrow Lord Hybrow wrote:

Next start?

Group 3 Premiers Cup 1900m at Rosehill in 3 weeks, perhaps?

Yes indeed. Well placed Lord Hybrow.

In all sorts of trouble on the turn with Grimm actually showing some urgency.
Once clear he was too good though.

Very good horse.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 5:59pm
I will summon the soul of djebel here.

If they give him a European style prep, he could win the cups.

As it is if they run him every fortnight he will be cooked by the time things hot up in Melbourne.

I think his finish is better than Hartnell's
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:00pm
Gp 2 placed last prep in GB

With the bump you were wrong twice. All his Euro racing was in France for the master trainer Andre Fabre. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:04pm
Lovely stayer!
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:17pm
Metrop at his mercy now. Then off to the Caul Cup.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:28pm
Originally posted by correctweight correctweight wrote:

Metrop at his mercy now. Then off to the Caul Cup.


James Cummings may not get the chance to choose his path , and I agree with your Metrop - CC plan being his best option. Lightly weighted surely.

But I remember Hartnell had the Caul Cup at his mercy and Godolphin decided to run him in the Cox Plate against Winx.

It would be a shame.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:32pm
Why Metrop? Go to wfa in Melbourne, avoid any penalties and take an easy path to the CC. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:36pm
I'm looking at the likely weight for the Metrop. He'd have to get in light and it is a Group 1.
In the WFA races he'd be facing some serious horseflesh. With no weight advantage.

I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:47pm
Have no idea what path they'll take, however he's won at Listed level and run three placings at Group 2 level in the NH including a 2nd to Cracksman who's been hailed by more than a few as the best horse in the world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:48pm
Plotting a course to the Spring Cups is always tricky.

Will be interesting to see where he runs next.

I don’t mind the idea of the Newcastle Cup @ 2300m on the 14th Sept.

Then hopefully winning that sees his rating high enough to go straight into the Caulfield Cup @ 2400m on 20th Oct.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:48pm
Has to rate 105+ now so what weight is that for Metrop? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:50pm
And the 88 rating he carried from France was a joke. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:54pm
I don't know what rating he'd get, or what weight, or what race. But I will be following him.

I'd love to see him in Melb actually, but only because Grimm Scholfield would stay in Sydney.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 6:54pm
Newcastle Cup looks the next best option into the group 1s.

Why go through WFA when you can pick off the handicaps while you can. On this trajectory he'll be a WFA next season and will be weighted out of the winnable races now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 7:02pm
Led to believe the winners of the following races are ballot exempt for the Caulfield Cup, irrespective of allotted weight.

Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m), Dato’Tan Chin Nam Stakes 1600m, Underwood Stakes 1800m , Naturalism Stakes (2000m) ,Turnbull Stakes (2000m), Herbert Power Stakes (2400m), Caulfield Stakes (2000m), and Mornington Cup (already run).

Reckon he'll be down in Vic earlier rather than later.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 7:03pm
Yes those races are why I think he'll come to Melbourne rather than Metrop or Newcastle. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Aug 2018 at 1:16am
"Whether we go to the Kingston Town or the Newcastle Cup next, we’ll just wait and see how quickly he recovers and how far he wants to go next. We’ll nominate for the Metropolitan and I reckon he might be worthwhile nominating for
the Caulfield Cup too.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Aug 2018 at 1:17am
Sorry that was said by James Cummings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AdaHunta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Aug 2018 at 7:57pm
Haven't been as excited over a 2000m horse since Gingernuts !! 

This is a serious horse .....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Aug 2018 at 8:45pm
Originally posted by correctweight correctweight wrote:

Sorry that was said by James Cummings

Correct.

However it's not often advisable, even as trainer, to second guess Godolphin.  Wink
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