Join up at Bet Easy - Click here - Bet Easy is Thoroughbred Village’s premier betting partner - Join here now
Forum Home Forum Home > Horse Racing - Public Forums > Tipping and Wagering
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Average win strike rate per horse
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login


Click here for the Thoroughbred Village Home Page. For village news, follow @TBVillage on Twitter. For horseracing tips, follow @Villagebet on Twitter. To contact the Mayor by email: Click Here.

Average win strike rate per horse

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
BROOKE View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 12633
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Average win strike rate per horse
    Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 11:57am
Hoping Big Al can somehow chime in with this one.

Two questions

1: Whats the average win strike rate per horse?

2: Whats the average win dividend $$
Back to Top
Sponsored Links
Click here to view the promotions at Bet Easy.


Back to Top
Gay3 View Drop Down
Moderator Group
Moderator Group


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Location: Ballarat
Status: Offline
Points: 32574
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 12:02pm
Al can have that one all to himself LOL  You can't put all races in the same basket i.e. maiden, BMs, 3yo group races, open age group sprints/stayers. OMG what a can of worms Confused
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
Back to Top
Whale View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 01 Jun 2009
Location: broome
Status: Online
Points: 35664
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 12:04pm
I can sense another system coming on Smile
Don't waste time on past disagreements, find new ones to fight over
Back to Top
Browndog View Drop Down
Moderator Group
Moderator Group
Avatar

Joined: 30 Oct 2009
Location: Brunswick Hds N
Status: Offline
Points: 35555
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 12:30pm
 Last year there were 31,181 horses and 189,604 starters in 18,888 races
Back to Top
BROOKE View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 12633
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 12:39pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

I can sense another system coming on Smile


LOL

I am working up to something here.
When I look at horse stats, you generally see win strike rates of 10% to 30%.
Barring the exceptions of 2 year olds (not enough starts), and Black Caviar etc,  horses tend to sit around the 10% to 30% mark.
The lower it is, the higher they generally pay,(in most cases), due to apparent poor form.

So my theory building to here, is to not bet on horses with a 1 near their name.
eg, 541x141.  (strike rate too high, price too low)
Bet on all the horses in a race that have this situation,  452372, etc.
Obviously not maiden races, as they all have that situation.

Back to Top
Group 1 Selections View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2012
Status: Offline
Points: 13740
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 1:50pm
I disagree Brooke, I give extra points for a horse with a strike rate of 30% or better and deduct ratings points for horses with less then 10%. Winners keep winning and losers keep finding ways to get beaten.
Back to Top
Browndog View Drop Down
Moderator Group
Moderator Group
Avatar

Joined: 30 Oct 2009
Location: Brunswick Hds N
Status: Offline
Points: 35555
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 2:11pm
Originally posted by Group 1 Selections Group 1 Selections wrote:

I disagree Brooke, I give extra points for a horse with a strike rate of 30% or better and deduct ratings points for horses with less then 10%. Winners keep winning and losers keep finding ways to get beaten.

I remember years ago reading in one of Don Scotts publications stats for winning horses that went something like: 1 in 10 horses wins 1 race, 1 in 30 wins 2 races and so on to 1 in 98 horses wins 7 or more races  
Back to Top
3blindmice View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 22 Oct 2012
Status: Offline
Points: 18099
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 2:33pm
Fwiw (next to nothing apart from knowing if your horse is +- "average"), a few years ago I read that the "average" was about 1 in 5. Ignoring last start winners is a sure way to a dwindling bank.
Back to Top
saintly96 View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 12 Jun 2008
Location: Nunya biz
Status: Offline
Points: 12706
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saintly96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 3:26pm
Horses work their way through the classes until they find their correct mark. Horses with a little bit of ability will usually have a decent strike rate for winning and placing until they reach their level.

I think looking at the class of the race the horse is in, is a much better pointer than the strike rate. If a horse with a poor strike rate at group level drops back in grade, then the strike rate is a non issue IMO.
Back to Top
Group 1 Selections View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 11 Sep 2012
Status: Offline
Points: 13740
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 3:41pm
Originally posted by saintly96 saintly96 wrote:

Horses work their way through the classes until they find their correct mark. Horses with a little bit of ability will usually have a decent strike rate for winning and placing until they reach their level.

I think looking at the class of the race the horse is in, is a much better pointer than the strike rate. If a horse with a poor strike rate at group level drops back in grade, then the strike rate is a non issue IMO.
 
 
This is true but you can take this into account with your prior start ratings and class change ratings. I find that my profit margin falls by a significant amount when I take strike rate out of my variants.
Back to Top
bigal View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 29 Jan 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 7960
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 6:12pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

I can sense another system coming on Smile


LOL

I am working up to something here.
When I look at horse stats, you generally see win strike rates of 10% to 30%.
Barring the exceptions of 2 year olds (not enough starts), and Black Caviar etc,  horses tend to sit around the 10% to 30% mark.
The lower it is, the higher they generally pay,(in most cases), due to apparent poor form.

So my theory building to here, is to not bet on horses with a 1 near their name.
eg, 541x141.  (strike rate too high, price too low)
Bet on all the horses in a race that have this situation,  452372, etc.
Obviously not maiden races, as they all have that situation.

 
brooke, i can tell you that if you backed every horse in the race that has more than 5 starts and has not won any of its last 5 races will give you a race s/rate of about 60%.......
 
but it will lose you about a constant 20%!!!.
 
theories along these sorts of lines that you have will never end in a profitable position....winning is not as easy as that!!!.
 
 
big AL
Back to Top
Crash View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Jun 2008
Location: Sydney
Status: Offline
Points: 22800
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 6:20pm
Brooke is TBV'S Queen Of Systems Clap Clap and a very successful one imho .
Back to Top
saintly96 View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 12 Jun 2008
Location: Nunya biz
Status: Offline
Points: 12706
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saintly96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2013 at 7:54pm
Originally posted by Group 1 Selections Group 1 Selections wrote:

Originally posted by saintly96 saintly96 wrote:

Horses work their way through the classes until they find their correct mark. Horses with a little bit of ability will usually have a decent strike rate for winning and placing until they reach their level.

I think looking at the class of the race the horse is in, is a much better pointer than the strike rate. If a horse with a poor strike rate at group level drops back in grade, then the strike rate is a non issue IMO.


 

 

This is true but you can take this into account with your prior start ratings and class change ratings. I find that my profit margin falls by a significant amount when I take strike rate out of my variants.


Agree.

Strike rate is a variable to be considered, but it is just one of many things to look at.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 11.10
Copyright ©2001-2017 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 0.047 seconds.