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Australian property crash

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rusty nails View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2018 at 3:42pm
Differences between US steel and the rest of the world?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2018 at 4:07pm
don't bother asking him for a link, he simply deflects, insults and ignores 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2018 at 4:13pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

start here and follow the dots ... no more hints.


Ok,looked at the policy and surprise surprise there’s no mention of what you claim,which makes sense.
I doubt anyone thinks the ALP is going to publish research that indicates it will have a $500B negative effect.
Had a look at the grattan report and nothing there either....
https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/800_Renovating_Housing.pdf

Not trying to point score,I’m genuinely interested in understanding the number and the assumptions that go with it.
But your responses make it hard not to be confrontational.
I’ve asked a simple question,politely, and you’ve made 4 responses that don’t do anything to substantiate the number, just smart arse responses trying to deflect that fact.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2018 at 4:18pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

don't bother asking him for a link, he simply deflects, insults and ignores 

from the king of insult, deflection and ignorance, the whale.

apart from the obvious, price, you cant answer because you dont know.
a link? do your own research.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2018 at 4:34pm
Ignore History and your future is sexually assaulted.

Can you imagine the state of this Country, if property did crash, more than the cyclical nature of Oz solid Residential Real Estate since 1945.

Tradesmen have long waiting lists for renovations at prices unheard of.
Governments can't afford to have that happen .     
Yes , They are trying to slow the "Hot" areas at this time , just like Keatings 18% Interest rates failed to do in the late 1980's.
A short recession and off they went again.
   At this time the cycle is quite good in Regional & other State capitals ,   The Tooth paste effect ....    The Worlds rich , squeeze the white out

With our Migration Rates , Nothing is more solid than BRICKS & MORTAR.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2018 at 5:14pm
Please understand, this is extremely tedious, as I researched this more than 2 years ago, and have shared it a number of timed in here, as well as on social media.

The encouraging thing is that it is now being spoken about by the government - Malcolm didn't bother during the election - yet another act of sabotage by the Green ALP Leader?

Anyway, the fact is that the information is NOT easy to find - the ALP don't want the facts easy to find because it is a typical ALP populist policy of ENVY - they were selling it to the lazy uninformed masses, and it is easy to sell it on the basis that the evil, greedy property investors must be punished - it's an easy message to sell, and the figures that I found when delving deeply into the various reports boiled down to a couple of simple "estimated" numbers.

1. The tax grab over 10 years was widely promoted as $32 billion - no secret there, boasted about constantly, didn't even bother questioning it, although it would just be pissed up against the wall anyway, but that is not the argument here.

2. The initial impact was quoted to be a "minor" decline across all residential real estate values of an average of 2% - which helps first home buyers, not at all! ... thus destroying THAT claim - and then a "minor" decline in projected capital growth of 0.49% p.a. 

3. By simply capitalising the loss and compounding the reduction in capital growth and applying it to the current value of residential real estate in Australia, the result is a "conservative" $500 billion reduction in future values in 10 years time. Note: The current values are actually higher than when I did the calculations over 2 years ago, so the figures would now also be higher.

4. That works out to be about $60-70,000 per average property across the country or 10- 12% of current values.

5. If these estimates are out by fractions of a %, that cost could double or triple.

6. Many Australians retiring in the next 10-15 years have little or no super or savings, their wealth and retirement strategy is around selling their home or investment property and "downsizing" ... that means that this policy WILL reduce the funds available to a huge number of "Baby Boomers" in retirement, and as soon as they run that money down, there will be a massive Welfare "Black Hole" ... not $500 billion, but lets say half of that, or a quarter ... who will be paying for that? ... the government?

7. Not only a Welfare Bill for future generations, but, there goes the inheritance! ... double whammy for the kids ... ouch! (They'll be hoping that Global Warming destroys the planet!)

8. I haven't even gone into the issues related with a segmented, new and used property market, where "new" buying will be restricted to investors ... that has massive problems to evolve if owner occupiers are priced out of new, and restricted to old stock ... market manipulation with this kind of clear segmentation is fraught with danger.

9. So this policy costs the > 60% of the population who have real estate  a lot of money + their heirs (so everyone!), and does virtually nothing to placate the whinging whining Millennials who can't afford to buy a house in Wentworth! 

... it is simply another reflection of the ideology of the left - destroy aspiration, penalise anyone who tries to create wealth (so that they might not be a burden in retirement), manipulate markets, make everyone reliant on the "state" who accordingly take full control of our lives ... like Venezuela.

Add the tax on Self Funded Retirees who are invested in the share market, and these policies, PROPERLY EXPLAINED AND UNDERSTOOD should sink ANY party in a democratic capitalist society, surely?

I really couldn't be bothered going back over the source material, but it's there to be found, not prominently displayed, for the reasons I mentioned, and I'm guessing unchanged for the past 2 years or more.

If you can find data that the ALP and their think tanks have provided that gives a different outcome, as always, I'm happy to be corrected, but, if it was all leading to a "good" outcome ... why is it so effectively hidden?Wink

In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2018 at 10:15am

House prices 'falling by over $1,000 a week' in Sydney and Melbourne, Deloitte says



http://www.msn.com/en-au/money/homeandproperty/house-prices-falling-by-over-dollar1000-a-week-in-sydney-and-melbourne-deloitte-says/ar-BBOLovo?li=AAgfLCP&ocid=mailsignout 



"Our house prices here in Australia had streaked past anything sensible by way of valuation," said Deloitte partner Chris Richardson.

"Now, finally gravity has caught up with that stupidity and prices are falling.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2018 at 10:20am
You would think that the purpose of the property market is to make money, not to put a roof over your head.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2018 at 12:05pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

You would think that the purpose of the property market is to make money, not to put a roof over your head.


You could say that of fish & chips putting food in your Tummy.

Property is no different to any other business venture.




























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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2018 at 12:22pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

You would think that the purpose of the property market is to make money, not to put a roof over your head.


You could say that of fish & chips putting food in your Tummy.

Property is no different to any other business venture.



That analogy makes no sense.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2018 at 1:34pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

You would think that the purpose of the property market is to make money, not to put a roof over your head.


You could say that of fish & chips putting food in your Tummy.

Property is no different to any other business venture.



That analogy makes no sense.


WHY



























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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2018 at 9:45pm
Is going to get worse, then will be like the property stagnation of the 80's, lasted for about 7 years I think.
Will eventually recover but don't hold your breath
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2018 at 10:32pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Is going to get worse, then will be like the property stagnation of the 80's, lasted for about 7 years I think.
Will eventually recover but don't hold your breath


7 years is not unusual actually .    2009 -- 2017 was fairly stable ,
Then the cycle does the usual ....   Bang for a period and Govt. tries to slow it down . They are using Post Codes for deposits when lending ATM .
Still strong in Brisbane ( allow for some apartment oversupply closer to the CBD )



























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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2018 at 9:09am
Has it been mentioned on here, the new Australian Law, regarding Tenant rights??

Tenants are allowed to behave like maniacs, destroy a property, create a violent scene, annoy neighbours,  and the Landlord is considered responsible for it all, and the Landlord must pay a hefty fine and then pay for all the damages.
Thats right, the Landlords are now fully responsible for their tenants behaviour.

Welcome to Communism folks.
Ripping apart ownership rights.

Hardly a desirable Investment anymore.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Softy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2018 at 10:29am
But I wouldnt exactly blame it on communism either.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2018 at 10:41am
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Has it been mentioned on here, the new Australian Law, regarding Tenant rights??

Tenants are allowed to behave like maniacs, destroy a property, create a violent scene, annoy neighbours,  and the Landlord is considered responsible for it all, and the Landlord must pay a hefty fine and then pay for all the damages.
Thats right, the Landlords are now fully responsible for their tenants behaviour.

Welcome to Communism folks.
Ripping apart ownership rights.

Hardly a desirable Investment anymore.

If being forced to provide habitable accommodation, not exploiting tenants means it is not a desirable investment for some, so be it.

Here’s a breakdown of the key changes:

• Landlords must now ensure their properties meet basic standards, providing functioning stoves, heating and deadlocks, and maintaining basic safety standards for gas, electricity and smoke alarms.

• Rental bidding will be banned, preventing landlords from accepting a higher price than advertised

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2018 at 6:12pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2018 at 7:30pm
A lot about nothing.
The cycles are over quite a few Years.    People who purchased in frenzy times , should have known there is no quick resale returns.
The big TWO City BOOMS have come to earth ( as usual ) and the people movements to more affordable areas has some Regional Cities & Interstate Capitals doing fine.       Migration ensures there is icing on the cake.
   Those patterns haven't changed in well over 60 years,   We all need a roof over the head..



























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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 9:06am
There is still money to be made in property  Smile

Sydney property developer awarded home under squatting laws after renting it out for 20 years 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 2:01pm
So who believes that the ALP's Neg Gearing and CGT changes are a good thing for the economy ... other than a $500 Billion Black Hole for existing property owners (70% of the population).

Looks like CNNPT might have missed this in my absence ... oops!

Job losses, less building and more affordability issues: Industry groups say Labor's tax plans will make problems in Australia's housing market even worse


  • Australia’s unprecedented residential construction boom is starting to roll over. Building approvals are falling noticeably, as is demand for construction workers.
  • Some groups have expressed concern that proposed tax changes proposed by Labor could result in less homes being built, job losses and even greater housing affordability constraints.
  • Australia’s next federal election is expected to be held in May next year.
  • After an unprecedented boom in the past two years, the outlook for residential construction in Australia is now clearly starting to soften.

    Building approvals are tumbling, especially for apartments, as the combination of tighter lending standards, a reduction in foreign demand and a record supply of new housing acts to weigh on established home prices.

    Unsurprisingly, demand for workers is also starting to weaken. This could act slow jobs growth further given construction is the third largest employer in the country behind healthcare and retail.

    Given that backdrop, along with an expectation that home prices are likely to fall for some time yet, the question that many are now asking is whether the housing construction boom will be replaced by an equally large bust.

    At this point most expect the downturn will be modest, leaving residential construction at elevated levels compared to prior norms.


    However, according to new modelling from Cadence Economics on behalf of the Master Builders Australia, a likely change in government at the next federal election — and coinciding proposed changes towards the tax treatment of housing — could make the current downturn a whole lot worse.

    “Labor’s policies on negative gearing and CGT fails its own test,” said Denita Wawn, CEO of Master Builders Australia, referring to the Labor Party’s proposed policy to halve the capital gains tax on properties held for over 12 months and limit negative gearing to new builds from a yet to be determined date.

    Rather than helping to boost new housing supply and employment across the sector, it says the proposed changes will have the opposite effect.

    “Independent modelling by Cadence Economics shows that Labor’s policy would mean up to 42,000 fewer new homes would be built over the five years following the implementation of Labor’s policies, resulting in a reduction in the value of residential building activity of between $2.8 billion and $11.8 billion,” Wawn said.

    “Home renovations would also be hit by an expected reduction of between $50 million to $210 million in activity over a five year period.

    “Inevitably this would mean a fall in employment which is expected to be between 7,200 and 32,000 less jobs across the country.”


    Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/labor-negative-gearing-cgt-australia-housing-market-2018-10#ovqQGbJw8wuwOErw.99

  • In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 3:21pm
    I spent a few hours last night , having a rehash of the various areas of Real Estate .       IT'S BE CAREFUL time.
    Any where that boomed when relying on mining in their State went very bad .WA , QLD .
    Was interesting to see so many destroyed Real Estate investors , Places like Morindah , Bunbury , Mandura , Singleton . .....       Areas of the Sunshine Coast which is a high risk area anytime .
       We can sit and watch the corrections that always follow.
    The Outer Suburbs of Sydney will lose money for some time to come . Things went silly there.
       But being in Docs Obit list ,   capital gain isn't my priority any more . I need my LIFTS in other areas.



























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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 4:02pm
    macca, that's real estate investment 101 - never invest in one industry towns - the shonky spruikers have been living the high life off the blood sweat and tears of the suckers who they conned into doing so for years!

    Simple rules are, major east coast cities, quality and value (not cheap), close to jobs, transport and amenities, buy when people say not to, and hold - forever.

    Everything else is mostly irrelevant, price point and type are determined by your ability to service any debt.
    In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Softy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 5:44pm
    Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

    macca, that's real estate investment 101 - never invest in one industry towns - the shonky spruikers have been living the high life off the blood sweat and tears of the suckers who they conned into doing so for years!

    Simple rules are, major east coast cities, quality and value (not cheap), close to jobs, transport and amenities, buy when people say not to, and hold - forever.

    Everything else is mostly irrelevant, price point and type are determined by your ability to service any debt.

    Look at that Dr, you go out for a few hours, come back and raise a point that I agree with.
    As you mention, debt management is very very important, whether running your home, business or Government.
    We are actually doing a study on 'Trickle Down' economics here at home.
    The kids aren't very happy at all, even when i keep trying to explain the benefits that they receive versus the benefits I receive.
    They do understand however that they are far better off than the dog, who keeps getting kicked in the stomach.
    Smile

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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 7:36pm
    Originally posted by Softy Softy wrote:

    Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

    macca, that's real estate investment 101 - never invest in one industry towns - the shonky spruikers have been living the high life off the blood sweat and tears of the suckers who they conned into doing so for years!

    Simple rules are, major east coast cities, quality and value (not cheap), close to jobs, transport and amenities, buy when people say not to, and hold - forever.

    Everything else is mostly irrelevant, price point and type are determined by your ability to service any debt.


    Look at that Dr, you go out for a few hours, come back and raise a point that I agree with.
    As you mention, debt management is very very important, whether running your home, business or Government.
    We are actually doing a study on 'Trickle Down' economics here at home.
    The kids aren't very happy at all, even when i keep trying to explain the benefits that they receive versus the benefits I receive.
    They do understand however that they are far better off than the dog, who keeps getting kicked in the stomach.
    Smile


       I don't want to come back as your dog Softy.

    Yes Doc ,    Relying on such one offs as tourism , Mining has swallowed so many investors .

    Friend of mine went to Ireland years ago a bought up big .    I tried to warn him but he got caught big time .



























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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 9:30pm
    Originally posted by Softy Softy wrote:

    Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

    macca, that's real estate investment 101 - never invest in one industry towns - the shonky spruikers have been living the high life off the blood sweat and tears of the suckers who they conned into doing so for years!

    Simple rules are, major east coast cities, quality and value (not cheap), close to jobs, transport and amenities, buy when people say not to, and hold - forever.

    Everything else is mostly irrelevant, price point and type are determined by your ability to service any debt.

    Look at that Dr, you go out for a few hours, come back and raise a point that I agree with.
    As you mention, debt management is very very important, whether running your home, business or Government.
    We are actually doing a study on 'Trickle Down' economics here at home.
    The kids aren't very happy at all, even when i keep trying to explain the benefits that they receive versus the benefits I receive.
    They do understand however that they are far better off than the dog, who keeps getting kicked in the stomach.
    Smile


    LOL 

    I'm sure your kids will be far better off as a result ... we never had any welfare in our house, and I don't have a single victim amongst my kids!Wink

    In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Softy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 11:22pm
    I’m sure our kids will be fine too thanks, as we haven’t let our debt levels double in the last 4 years.
    I struggle to think of people who would be so financially irresponsible?
    Can you think of any Dr?
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 11:49pm
    Originally posted by Softy Softy wrote:

    I’m sure our kids will be fine too thanks, as we haven’t let our debt levels double in the last 4 years.
    I struggle to think of people who would be so financially irresponsible?
    Can you think of any Dr?


    YES    ...     So much merit in those past few posts ,    Those Golden Rules of such importance .

       Real Estate is like most forms of Business ...     Learn the basics or pay dearly ,      We hear most about the success stories ,      The numbers that have blindly rushed in at the worst end of the market , are in for a long wait for any returns.

    Tasmania doing well at this time aye.
    ( C/P= The Tasmanian Real estate market continues to buck the national trend and has ... to 1.7% and 3.1 % respectively while Launceston remained stable at 1.9%.)



























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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 2018 at 2:07am
    Three settled house sales is a property boom in poor old Tassie.

    No population growth drivers - although they are experiencing a poulation Boom at present - nice place to visit, no reasons to invest there.
    In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Softy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 2018 at 8:14am
    Still can’t think of anyone who has let debt levels more than double in the last 4 years Dr.?
    I would give you a hint but I’m fairly sure you know some.
    So is debt management important to you or not?
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    Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
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    Joined: 02 Oct 2012
    Location: Australia
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    Points: 14150
    Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 2018 at 8:22am
    Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

    Three settled house sales is a property boom in poor old Tassie.

    No population growth drivers - although they are experiencing a poulation Boom at present - nice place to visit, no reasons to invest there.


    There is an extremely good reason to move to Tasmania- it's going to be intolerably hot up here. I've always planned on moving there but it looks like I'm not the only man with a plan. OK are there any other non-stinking hot places in Australia? Might have to move to Glasgow.Tongue
    "Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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