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Australian property crash

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oneonesit View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 2018 at 9:05pm
Just saying that property in Sydney is out of reach of the average young working couple. Add on the tighter lending policies for investment properties for locals & the even ones for foreigners. The Chinese government has also made it harder for money to leave the country I believe. Then factor in a massive supply of new premises (units) & the end result must be a major softening of the market. I'm not saying it wont recover in time. However many are going to get well & truly burnt in the meantime
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 2018 at 9:21pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:


Just saying that property in Sydney is out of reach of the average young working couple. Add on the tighter lending policies for investment properties for locals & the even ones for foreigners. The Chinese government has also made it harder for money to leave the country I believe. Then factor in a massive supply of new premises (units) & the end result must be a major softening of the market. I'm not saying it wont recover in time. However many are going to get well & truly burnt in the meantime


oneone.. >>>> Sydney ,Melbourne are virtually Foreign Countries.

Your average young working couple is being squeezed out of the better areas like a tube of toothpaste. That goes on throughout the whole Country and those on the end of the line go Regional or more likely to cheaper Capital cities.    Brisbane, Tasmania , Adelaide , Canberra etc and some Regional areas , are having their turn of the upward cycle.
Oversupply of course , because developers need to get cash in and keep building as the coming demand will still outstrip supply.
We are the Heaven for the Rich Chinese , Indian , Asian population and if you live Sydney ,Melbourne ,        They are coming to a House near you.
   TAKE NOTICE OF DOC >   He has his finger in all the right places.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 2018 at 10:58pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

My welfare cheque?

ps you clearly fail to understand that the "aspirational" people you refer to are indeed those who legally  limit their tax liability, but in doing so both inflate house prices and place a greater tax burden on PAYE employees.

Simple as.

You really do not know what you are talking about do you.

So do you honestly believe that people invest purely to limit their tax liability?

Do you even understand why the government offers these tax deductions?

Do you understand that the government has no money to pay you welfare bill, if everyone wants welfare?

I bet you think that the age pension is an "entitlement".

 
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Softy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 2018 at 11:02pm
You seem to think that belittling people is an entitlement.
What is ‘entitlement’?.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 2018 at 11:16pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:


Just saying that property in Sydney is out of reach of the average young working couple. Add on the tighter lending policies for investment properties for locals & the even ones for foreigners. The Chinese government has also made it harder for money to leave the country I believe. Then factor in a massive supply of new premises (units) & the end result must be a major softening of the market. I'm not saying it wont recover in time. However many are going to get well & truly burnt in the meantime


oneone.. >>>> Sydney ,Melbourne are virtually Foreign Countries.

Your average young working couple is being squeezed out of the better areas like a tube of toothpaste. That goes on throughout the whole Country and those on the end of the line go Regional or more likely to cheaper Capital cities.    Brisbane, Tasmania , Adelaide , Canberra etc and some Regional areas , are having their turn of the upward cycle.
Oversupply of course , because developers need to get cash in and keep building as the coming demand will still outstrip supply.
We are the Heaven for the Rich Chinese , Indian , Asian population and if you live Sydney ,Melbourne ,        They are coming to a House near you.
   TAKE NOTICE OF DOC >   He has his finger in all the right places.

My parents couldn't afford to buy in what is now the "inner" west, so they moved to "the bush" 20k's from Sydney was all BUSH back then, and they built a modest affordable fibro 2 bedder, that was eventually extended and renovated almost to death!

I was lucky enough to be able to buy a dump in the same area that I grew up around Bankstown, and we furnished it for a few thousand dollars, with some great gear from various op shops! ... but I couldn't afford a nice Sydney suburb near the beach or the city.

These days, young couples are not prepared to move to an affordable suburb, and if they do, they MUST have a brand new 4 bedroom McMansion, with EVERYTHING, and if you have that, you sure can't have 2nd hand furniture, you cant even have Ikea! Thumbs Down

So the easy answer, and it's encouraged by the Socialists, is to whinge and whine and complain about it just being impossible ... yet, it is cheaper making home loan repayments on an average Sydney property TODAY, than it was when prices were 40% cheaper, 10 years ago ... FACT.

The moral is, the victims will always be victims, but if you want to find a way, there is always a way!Wink
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 2018 at 11:23pm
Originally posted by Softy Softy wrote:

You seem to think that belittling people is an entitlement.
What is ‘entitlement’?.

It's impossible to belittle anyone who is not in someway knowingly "little", since they will not even recognise it ... it's like being offended, it's a choice.

Entitlement is a thing that lazy people believe they should have, just because other people have it, even if they have not actually earned it themselves.

You know, like the age pension, just because you have attained an appropriate age ... that's a little unfair, since most people who receive it, have received some form of welfare all of their lives, so they are fooled into believing that they are simply entitled to that as well, so why would anything change ... and besides, the government will pay!

It can also be abstract, like people who believe they are entitled to respect, even though they have never actually done anything to deserve it.

You're welcome.
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 2018 at 11:47pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:


Just saying that property in Sydney is out of reach of the average young working couple. Add on the tighter lending policies for investment properties for locals & the even ones for foreigners. The Chinese government has also made it harder for money to leave the country I believe. Then factor in a massive supply of new premises (units) & the end result must be a major softening of the market. I'm not saying it wont recover in time. However many are going to get well & truly burnt in the meantime


oneone.. >>>> Sydney ,Melbourne are virtually Foreign Countries.

Your average young working couple is being squeezed out of the better areas like a tube of toothpaste. That goes on throughout the whole Country and those on the end of the line go Regional or more likely to cheaper Capital cities.    Brisbane, Tasmania , Adelaide , Canberra etc and some Regional areas , are having their turn of the upward cycle.
Oversupply of course , because developers need to get cash in and keep building as the coming demand will still outstrip supply.
We are the Heaven for the Rich Chinese , Indian , Asian population and if you live Sydney ,Melbourne ,        They are coming to a House near you.
   TAKE NOTICE OF DOC >   He has his finger in all the right places.


My parents couldn't afford to buy in what is now the "inner" west, so they moved to "the bush" 20k's from Sydney was all BUSH back then, and they built a modest affordable fibro 2 bedder, that was eventually extended and renovated almost to death!

I was lucky enough to be able to buy a dump in the same area that I grew up around Bankstown, and we furnished it for a few thousand dollars, with some great gear from various op shops! ... but I couldn't afford a nice Sydney suburb near the beach or the city.

These days, young couples are not prepared to move to an affordable suburb, and if they do, they MUST have a brand new 4 bedroom McMansion, with EVERYTHING, and if you have that, you sure can't have 2nd hand furniture, you cant even have Ikea! Thumbs Down

So the easy answer, and it's encouraged by the Socialists, is to whinge and whine and complain about it just being impossible ... yet, it is cheaper making home loan repayments on an average Sydney property TODAY, than it was when prices were 40% cheaper, 10 years ago ... FACT.

The moral is, the victims will always be victims, but if you want to find a way, there is always a way!Wink
What you say re repayments is correct. Not because of the comparative prices - because of historically low interest rates. Young home owners with huge mortgages are sitting on a time bomb. I’ve lived through periods of massive interest rate hikes. Almost crippled me when I purchased my first home in the mid 80s. Young folk are totally foreign to that possibility.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 1:32am
I can't see what will cause a substantial interest rate rise in Australia? ... other than the virtue signalling ALP, cynically pushing the government to impose ridiculous $6 Billion levies on the banks ... which they simply recoup by passing it onto customers with the recent out of sequence home loan rate rises.

No, there is no event, other than an unforeseen, international catastrophic economic event, that will even remotely threaten to increase interest rates here in the next 3 -5 years ... that is why fixed interest rates for 3 years are comparable to the variable rates that currently prevail.

The only thing that will move rates up is rampant inflation, and a consequence of that would be substantive pay rises, so ostensibly the higher rates would actually be affordable anyway ... but again, that doesn't look likely ... but beware what you wish for!Wink

Oh wait, did I say a catastrophic economic event? ... I almost forgot the threat of Bullgelati Bill didn't I ... that would also be very, very bad.Ouch
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 8:12am
Rates are moving up now despite any settings of the reserve bank here , and it’s all due to US stimulus . Wages aren’t going up anywhere due to the massive youth under employment and won’t any time soon.
If we have any type of spike in inflation and rates that creates an international problem it will be caused by oil prices .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 8:45am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:


I cannot speak for areas outside Sydney - however anyone who lives here does not need to look at reports or analyst comments to see what has happened here. Unit blocks have gone up everywhere by the thousands over the past 5 years. Just take a drive for an hour or two. Its a mixture of 4 to 5 level stuff up to 20 to 30 level blocks. Now I know our population here is increasing - however Blind Freddy could see that supply was going to outstrip demand. Eventually the balance will be restored. The real question is how long that will be & what damage is done in the meantime. I look at the whole thing very simply. When the average young couple cannot afford a modest 2 B/R unit we must be headed for trouble. Around this way that figure is around $650k - for a 30 year old modest 2 B/R unit. So even if they can save the $65k 10% deposit - they still need to borrow close on 600k. A lot of loot - a lot of high repayments - & scary ramifications when (not if) interest rates take off & unemployment increases.


A combination of poor policy, unscrupulous lending and greed have brought us to point where people are simply paying way too as a percentage of what they earn on housing. I doubt what we’re seeing here is a cycle, unless this stupidity is repeated again - always a chance I guess.

I think what’s sustained it to some extent is the notion of the “Australian Dream”, that young people are desperate still to get into the market, hitting up their folks for deposits, even though they know they can’t afford it. As you say, rents are dropping, and enough of these people see buying as simply not worth it and opt out of the market, it could get ugly. I think we’ve a long way to go here, and there’s going to be a lot of pain.

“The firm rates middle-income housing affordability using the "median multiple" – the median house price divided by the median household income. Multiples above five are considered "severely unaffordable". Sydney's median house price is nearly 13 times the median income; Melbourne's just shy of 10 times. The nationwide multiple is 6.6. And affordability has deteriorated at an increasing rate over the decades. For example, Melbourne's median multiple has worsened from 6.3 in 2001 and under 3 in the early 1980s.”

https://www.afr.com/personal-finance/time-up-for-great-australian-property-dream-20180123-h0mqpf
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 9:45am
Originally posted by JudgeHolden JudgeHolden wrote:

 
A combination of poor policy, unscrupulous lending and greed have brought us to point where people are simply paying way too as a percentage of what they earn on housing. I doubt what we’re seeing here is a cycle, unless this stupidity is repeated again - always a chance I guess.



Politicians ( of both sides) love a housing boom , they can bleat on about creating jobs and growing the economy but its just like a sugar fix for the economy . 
 The boom never lasts and is always followed by a bust , any settings that encourage housing are bad for any economy in the long run . IMHO . 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 10:13am
US bond yields soaring, economy overheating, prices rising ahead of wages, Australian Dollar in free-fall. Nervous times ahead.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 10:22am
Its the GFC we never had probably . We will suffer a correction more than most economies due to our debt levels .
 You left off the biggy on your list in my opinion . Oil Prices . 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 10:32am
I'm predicting it will all start coming to a head by the time the ALP win the next election. Every cloud has its silver lining.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 10:48am
Oil prices will continue to go up with Russia and Saudi Arabia colluding to control the price upwards.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 11:36am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

I'm predicting it will all start coming to a head by the time the ALP win the next election. Every cloud has its silver lining.

People have nearly always voted with their pockets . When times are getting tough they vote Labour and when times are good they vote Liberal . 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 12:17pm
In defence of the good Dr & Macca, if we revisit the first few page of this thread at 2013 many were predicting impending doom & gloom. Similar reasoning as what is being proposed now. Fortunes been made since.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 12:20pm
Bit like predicting when that final straw breaks the poor old camels back !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 2:30pm
Supply and demand ladies - that will ALWAYS determine prices.
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 3:58pm
I though Redemption was Brooke. Oh, you've gone back to your original name.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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In fact, the biggest current threat to demand is a result of the pointless Banking Royal Commission.

Claims of endemic predatory lending are a joke. There is simply no evidence to support that.

However, the regulators, who everyone knew were not doing their jobs effectively - imagine that, an ineffectual Public Service Bureaucracy! - have completely over reacted, and has caused a totally unfounded "credit crunch" ... this is just starting to be commented upon ... watch this space!

So, if you find that people are having trouble buying property, thank the ALP/Greens Collusion, and in particular Bullgelati Bill, who has NOTHING MORE ORIGINAL as a policy than BANK BASHING!

Just today, the simpleton sweetheart is calling on the Banking RC to extend so that ALL people who made submissions can be heard ... There were more than 10,000 submissions ff$ ... you can see the Socialist come shining through - how much would THAT cost, and to achieve what???

... it's clearly not HIS money is it!

Combine that with his populist Negative Gearing and Capital Gains TAX HIKES ...

#NeverShorten
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 6:30pm
Banking, where if you rob them you go to prison, but if they rob you they get pay rises and bonuses.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 6:47pm
Nice of you oneone to recognise the good Doc and some others telling people to go buy a House in 2013.
It was good advice and with our supply & demand unchanged , Whats new pussycat.
I have friends & family who got on the wrong train many years ago and had all of those reasons that your better off renting.
Others made millions.
Strange to say and sad , those same people who missed the boat way back then are front of the queue with similar reasoning today.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 8:15pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Banking, where if you rob them you go to prison, but if they rob you they get pay rises and bonuses.

Are they simply smarter than Unionists? ... they are no more corrupt!
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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I'm a unionist.  Does that make me corrupt?  Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2018 at 8:45pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

I'm a unionist.  Does that make me corrupt?  Confused

Are you in jail yet?
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:32pm
Just discovered this station, great for discussions about shares, property, money in general

Auction Day

Saturday 6th October at 6:00 pm (60 minutes)
The only Australian real estate show featuring live auctions, Auction Day is your essential guide to the nation's hottest real estate, featuring expert advice on buying, selling, investing and improv
     LET PEACE REIGN
What does that mean ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:38pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

I'm a unionist.  Does that make me corrupt?  Confused

Are you in jail yet? 

How many members of a Union are in jail for being members? Confused

And how many members of a Union aren't in jail for being members?  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:39pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Just discovered this station, great for discussions about shares, property, money in general

Channel 95

Auction Day

Saturday 6th October at 6:00 pm (60 minutes)
The only Australian real estate show featuring live auctions, Auction Day is your essential guide to the nation's hottest real estate, featuring expert advice on buying, selling, investing and improv
     LET PEACE REIGN
What does that mean ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:55pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

I'm a unionist.  Does that make me corrupt?  Confused

Are you in jail yet? 

How many members of a Union are in jail for being members? Confused

And how many members of a Union aren't in jail for being members?  

Is this a trick question?Confused

How did the colt pull up? ... you should be out celebrating, shouldn't you? Beer
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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