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Australian property crash

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maccamax View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 4:09pm
lol.. same old , same old .        There's an old post in there where I said in 2012 , NOW GO BUY A HOUSE .... We were on a similar line as now.

Some new methods in play , Governments used to raise interest rates to slow over heating Real Estate .   I think by arrangements with Lenders they Slow by using post codes to make money harder to get.
One must admire those waiting for prices to fall,   100 years on a bench outside a Real Estate Office is one long wait.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 6:03pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

2% ?

There's no chance of short term capital gain.

Bank rates are even better than that......

I've seen some sell for just above 3% , so it wouldn't surprise . You wouldn't think that type of investor would be looking for short term gain but looking for safer long term capital gain and not worried about the yield as much . 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 7:12pm
Not even worth debate.    If people can't see the situation in Australia and consider being able to support their Real Estate purchase , then any failure is their fault.
When I chose a final place to end my days ,   I paid top dollars , Sold in lower North Shore of Sydney , so it wasn't ever going to be the best financial result.
Not good by comparison but at this time I've probably gained &80000 in capital gain and saved &180000 in rent.
Not the end of the world , Other than I haven't yet found an exchange rate that is accepted in Heaven Or Hell.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 7:36pm
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

2% ?

There's no chance of short term capital gain.

Bank rates are even better than that......


I've seen some sell for just above 3% , so it wouldn't surprise . You wouldn't think that type of investor would be looking for short term gain but looking for safer long term capital gain and not worried about the yield as much . 

I just don't see the rush to buy a low yield investment,when the majority view is that capital losses are more likely than gains,at this stage of the cycle.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 12:05am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Have three times made the mistake of watching 60 Minutes over recent times Macca.  Put plainly, the show is extremely plain, and has been for perhaps 10 years or more now.

So won't be watching tonight irrepective of who's on.

Superficial, stereotyped, boring presentation to the extreme. Unlike 4 Corners on our great ABC ,responsible for 2 Royal Commissions so far Clap

Brooke I took your advice 5 years ago and sold 2 properties, you owe me $800,000Ouch

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Dr E View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 12:29am
Two of the alleged "experts" who were interviewed by 60 minutes have complained that they were "selectively" quoted to meet the agenda of sensationalising the piece. The industry (admittedly biased) have weighed in and called BS as well. 

Just garbage journalism, would have looked at home on the ABC.Dead

https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2018/09/17/housing-crash-60-minutes/

The best time to buy property in any of the 3 East coast capital cities is NOW, and Brisbane has the best short term upside, with a real shortage of stock to materialise in the next 6 - 18 months.

Properly researched Property investment in Australia is as safe as houses!Thumbs Up 

Disclaimer - Unless Pauline is PM, and we actually stop immigration, then we will see a wipeout in property values.Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 10:19am
Australians are enormously in Debt,  the banks want it back and people will have to sell their homes to pay it back. People over capitalised on their homes. End of story.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 4:48pm
Wtf? ... you seriously think the banks want it back? ... that's not how lending works ... they never want it back, they want borrowers to pay interest on it forever!

... that's like saying property investors don't want tenants!Wacko
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:58pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Wtf? ... you seriously think the banks want it back? ... that's not how lending works ... they never want it back, they want borrowers to pay interest on it forever!

... that's like saying property investors don't want tenants!Wacko


They foreclose pretty quickly for someone who never wants it back. Foreclose and flip.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 8:52pm
Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:04pm
Go for it fellas ...   That was total shxt on 60 minutes last night.
I don't have the editication to express it otherwise.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 10:45pm
You describe it very accurately macca ... unfortunately it is typical of the lazy dishonest journalism that is simply about creating hysteria ... we have become accustomed to it, and the ABC is one of the leaders of the pack!Dead

Hey macca, you would have the best long term memory here ...

Remember the last time house prices in Australia dropped 45%? .... exactly! Ermm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:02pm
YES I do Doc and a true story.

   It was in the early 1940's and some midget Subs entered Sydney Harbour.

The mother ship and company dropped a few shells around our price less areas and I think Real Estate dropped in Rose Bay, for one, by much more than 45%.

Several Years later , with the wonderful people of the flattened areas of Europe started migrating, in large numbers and most were housed early in Huge tent camps in places like Bathurst and Cowra. NSW
They were workers and made Australia great.     SUPPLY & DEMAND has been out of whack since and continues to be .
Real Estate cycles have fluctuated upwards since and will continue to do so .
Stick to the established Residential areas to avoid disasters like ( Glen Davis ) near Lithgow , which became a ghost town when the shale mines closed.
   The corridor Brisbane North to the Sunshine Coast is enjoying good times at the moment in QLD .   So I'll stop waiting for Rose Bay Sydney, to return to the prices japan had it at = all those years ago.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:09pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink

A lot were talked into loans too large for them to service by unscrupulous banks and mortgage brokers and expenses and income were often falsified by the same vultures
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maccamax View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:55pm
So True Whale ...    Probably caused the WFC really.

Australia may have been affected in a minor way but nothing like the USA & others.
   Many will struggle here even now without Interest rate rises.. The living costs ( energy , fuel etc ) will do the job too.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 12:02am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink

A lot were talked into loans too large for them to service by unscrupulous banks and mortgage brokers and expenses and income were often falsified by the same vultures

hmmmm ... "a lot" you say! ... I suppose it would be silly to ask you to provide an example or a shred of detail or evidence to support that brain fart?LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 12:21am
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink

A lot were talked into loans too large for them to service by unscrupulous banks and mortgage brokers and expenses and income were often falsified by the same vultures

hmmmm ... "a lot" you say! ... I suppose it would be silly to ask you to provide an example or a shred of detail or evidence to support that brain fart?LOL

Don't start your silly little word games, distracting from the argument by disputing minor points of phraseology etc, taught you that in debating school I guess

A significant enough number to be mentioned by the Royal Commission

And stick to topics you know something about, like Gai Waterhouse , then againLOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:28am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink

A lot were talked into loans too large for them to service by unscrupulous banks and mortgage brokers and expenses and income were often falsified by the same vultures

hmmmm ... "a lot" you say! ... I suppose it would be silly to ask you to provide an example or a shred of detail or evidence to support that brain fart?LOL

Don't start your silly little word games, distracting from the argument by disputing minor points of phraseology etc, taught you that in debating school I guess

A significant enough number to be mentioned by the Royal Commission

And stick to topics you know something about, like Gai Waterhouse , then againLOL
  
I would have accepted it if you had just said "personal experience" ... Wink

So of the > $2,600,000,000,000 in mortgage lending, how much is actually in default as a result of "alleged" predatory lending (remember, the greedy are most often lying "victims" too!Wink)?  

The fact is that there is very little evidence of people who were not greedy, borrowing more than they could afford, as a percentage of national mortgage loan debt ... even the RC has struggled to find the "victims" of "predatory lending" in any meaningful numbers ... I would hazard a guess at less than .00001%? ... whatever, rounded down it is ZERO ... and every one of then was in the process of either being prosecuted, or restitution granted ... we learned nothing!

... but it was the politicised $100 Million Banking Royal Commission that the ALP/Greens Collusion had to have - even though they voted against it more than 20 times!

It really hurt the banks too ... so they just put EVERYONE'S home loan interest rate up, just to cover the costs ... Thanks Bullgelati Bill ... Ooops!Embarrassed

Regardless of the regular FAKE NEWS media beat ups - thanks again "60 Minutes of Crap" - we have a strong and resilient property market, and it is thanks to our well regulated financial services industry. That is why our economy is so robust, and we are the envy of the world, and everyone wants to invest here and live here! Our current mortgage default rates are at a very healthy 1.54%, which is up from 1.48% from a year ago ... roughly when the Sydney property market peaked.  

But you will never hear that from the ABC, who will without any evidence tell you that ...
 

Up to 1 million households 'on the edge' of mortgage default by September, analyst warns

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-11/up-to-1-million-households-may-go-into-mortgage-default-by-sept/9976268

... more puerile, garbage and hysteria from lazy, out of touch, journalists pushing their left wing agenda, who couldn't get a job in the real world!Dead

Anyway, other than being argumentative, what was your point buddy?Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:43am
 I would hazard a guess at less than .00001%? 

Exactly, no substantiation but of course your guesses have validity unlike everyone else LOL

Deny the evidence of The Royal Commission, are you a banker Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:56am
Spell check ''Banker'' Whale?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:58am

This $618 million mansion in Hong Kong could break the record as the most expensive home ever sold in the world's most expensive housing market — and it's surprisingly modest


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 10:59am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:07am

Mortgage stress has risen as a new record high level of household debt against income is set across Australia, new data by research and analysis group Digital Finance Analytics shows.

The number of households at all levels of stress rose by 6000 in August to reach a total of 996,000 stressed households, according to DFA's analysis using 52,000 household surveys, public data from the Reserve Bank, APRA and ABS, as well as private data from lenders and mortgage aggregators.

The majority of households – just under 80 per cent of all households – are mildly stressed although the biggest group of severely stressed mortgage holders are exclusive professionals and mature stable families, DFA says.

Households are considered stressed when their cashflows cannot cover ongoing home ownership costs.Those who are mildly stressed have access to some emergency cash but those who are seriously stressed usually look to sell down quickly.


Recent (sept. 9th)  article in the Australian Financial Review . 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:20am

Funny- the "general view of the HK skyline from the Peak" is nothing like the views from this particular house, which looks ordinary in the photos. Too many trees in the way.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:21am
Do they have bushfires in HK?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:23am
Or bears?
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For $618 million you'd think they would clean the pavers around the pool. They are filthy.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:24pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

 I would hazard a guess at less than .00001%? 

Exactly, no substantiation but of course your guesses have validity unlike everyone else LOL

Deny the evidence of The Royal Commission, are you a banker Confused

What evidence ...?

You're making up the story. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:33pm
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

Mortgage stress has risen as a new record high level of household debt against income is set across Australia, new data by research and analysis group Digital Finance Analytics shows.

The number of households at all levels of stress rose by 6000 in August to reach a total of 996,000 stressed households, according to DFA's analysis using 52,000 household surveys, public data from the Reserve Bank, APRA and ABS, as well as private data from lenders and mortgage aggregators.

The majority of households – just under 80 per cent of all households – are mildly stressed although the biggest group of severely stressed mortgage holders are exclusive professionals and mature stable families, DFA says.

Households are considered stressed when their cashflows cannot cover ongoing home ownership costs.Those who are mildly stressed have access to some emergency cash but those who are seriously stressed usually look to sell down quickly.


Recent (sept. 9th)  article in the Australian Financial Review . 


AFR used to be a respected journal ... cut and paste from the ABC article I linked above - just lazy journalism - Digital "who"? - sells data on "Mortgage Stress" of all things - hard to peddle if there is none!Wink

Up to 1 million households 'on the edge' of mortgage default by September, analyst warns

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-11/up-to-1-million-households-may-go-into-mortgage-default-by-sept/9976268
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