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Australian property crash

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BROOKE View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2013 at 8:51pm
If property was so profitable, then why doesnt every single banker and real estate agent snap up every property for themselves?????????


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2013 at 2:53pm
Melbourne property prices rose 2.2% last quarter.

Has anyone heard anything about or invested in the NRAS scheme where the government pays you $10,000 tax free for 10 years to invest in low cost housing?
Sounds good but if something looks too good to be true it usually is
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2013 at 2:58pm
Never mind the NRAS scheme, I am parlaying my 700% profit on my Bitcoins into rental accommodation 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 4:36pm
Watch 60 minutes tonight.

Sp many Australians also bought investment properties to be "trendy", to do renovations, s#cked in by shows like The Block, making people think the market will always go up.
In many cases, people will lose $500,000.
The scary part, the interest rates havent even gone up yet.

This may have come 4 years after this thread, but its happening and was always going to.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 4:41pm
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Watch 60 minutes tonight.

Sp many Australians also bought investment properties to be "trendy", to do renovations, s#cked in by shows like The Block, making people think the market will always go up.
In many cases, people will lose $500,000.
The scary part, the interest rates havent even gone up yet.

This may have come 4 years after this thread, but its happening and was always going to.


And you wonder why people don't take you seriously

5.5 years  Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 6:56pm
60 minutes will have some "credentialed" madman doing a " climate Change style delusion" , To entertain the masses and put fear into the inexperienced .
I've been through the preachers of 100's of these doom & gloom crazies for over 60 years. NO common sense.
Nuclear war or some unforseen destruction from another planet excluded ,
real estate Prices in solid residential areas CAN'T come down.
The usual cycles, accepted adjustments, of population movements as a result of the hordes forced to move to more affordable areas, Migration & Visa population explosions and deals being done that sees carpenters /tradies demanding $288000 a year income , are just a few things to think about, before you entertain the shxt that 60 minutes will serve up tonight.
Brisbane around me & smaller states , are in their price rise cycle , while rumour says Sydney - Melbourne are down to 8 % ...   lol .    Considering they have just come off a 50% boom , has my maths saying they are in fact up 42% in this cycle.
We have 100's of Thousands Homeless , Rents through the roof . Plus Migrants queue'd up for miles.     
Lets see what these clowns on 60 minutes have to say.    I will find it very interesting.      Especially when they say foreclosures are imminent to people who have over committed ...   Maybe true but the queue attends to that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 7:08pm
Have three times made the mistake of watching 60 Minutes over recent times Macca.  Put plainly, the show is extremely plain, and has been for perhaps 10 years or more now.

So won't be watching tonight irrepective of who's on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 7:16pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Have three times made the mistake of watching 60 Minutes over recent times Macca.  Put plainly, the show is extremely plain, and has been for perhaps 10 years or more now.

So won't be watching tonight irrepective of who's on.

Superficial, stereotyped, boring presentation to the extreme. Unlike 4 Corners on our great ABC ,responsible for 2 Royal Commissions so far Clap

Brooke I took your advice 5 years ago and sold 2 properties, you owe me $800,000Ouch
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 8:34pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

If property was so profitable, then why doesnt every single banker and real estate agent snap up every property for themselves?????????


Any do. I got “gazumpted” by an filthy grub of an agent a few years back. Cost me 100k at the time which has now parlayed into half a mill
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 8:37pm
If they keep on pumping immigrants into Sydney and Melbourne how can it go down much?
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 10:03pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

If they keep on pumping immigrants into Sydney and Melbourne how can it go down much?


The Cycles Of Real Estate are mostly not moving much and then every 5,6, whatever years it all goes gang busters .     That usually runs Melb , Sydney , before the oter Suburbs and then onto the other main Cities , Brisbane etc.
Always amusing as people only want to buy when everyone else does.

Don't use the word "Much" Tlaz .     They can't come down at all , Fluctuate a little but prices doubled at least in past 9 years and while it goes off the boil now, while Brisbane etc take up the slack,   it will double in the next similar period of time.
Oversupply of apartments slow things until catch up ( has to , as off the plan and sales are needed to fund the next flood of building.)
Areas with limits of heights will be gradually eased as they can only go UP UP UP .     You'll see million dollar Studio apartments all over Sydney & near Suburbs sooner rather than later me thinks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 10:48pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

If they keep on pumping immigrants into Sydney and Melbourne how can it go down much?

that would be a good argument if property was proper intrinsic value, it is overvalued by 50 % IMO looking at o\seas prices, and could crash due to our obsession with property and irresponsible buying by the gotta have it nows
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 11:41pm
60 minutes was absurd .   Not even worth talking about further, other than to say , as predicted , the ones crying are those who have over committed and now can't service the loans .   That's been happening to a minority since the year dot.

Whale .   We aren't overseas.     Places like Ireland had a boom and crash and I know foolish Australians who did their arz.
They export people , We are a Totally different scene.

We have an ever increasing population , Since WW2 demand far outstrips supply and it is getting worse as the better Residential land dries up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 9:24am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

If they keep on pumping immigrants into Sydney and Melbourne how can it go down much?

that would be a good argument if property was proper intrinsic value, it is overvalued by 50 % IMO looking at o\seas prices, and could crash due to our obsession with property and irresponsible buying by the gotta have it nows


But I've just spent $70,000 on my butler's pantry.Cry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 10:10am
The whole demand versus supply, can very much be an illusion in property.

Just because people "want" a home, doesnt mean they want, or can, get it at a high price.

People have a demand to buy a home, at a low price.
Thats the demand.

Equally, there is a demand to sell. The banks will be forcing people to sell.
They cant finance their loans with the banks anymore.

The amount of people selling, outweighs the amount of people wanting to buy a home at a cheap price.

There is NOT a supply shortage in Australia.

Here is the big part:

Agents are bidding "down".

Example: when a house is up for grabs for say $900,000, the dude nextdoor is willing to sell at $800,000. Same kind of house.
So the agent for the $900,000 house, says, hang on, we gotta go down in price.

bang. theres your collapse.
its already started happening.
People are bidding "down".

Big big difference.

Yes, its a "correction".
But this correction has people losing squillions, as they falsely believed its an investment that always goes up.

As for immigration, are we referring to boat people?
Or Indians who score a job at 7/11, part time, if they are lucky??



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 10:29am
The banks changes in lending policy has caused the current pull back in prices . Its much much harder to qualify for a bank housing loan . 
 All the overseas investors getting all interest loans on No Doc of even Dodgy Doc incomes has largely disappeared . Also ,  if Labour get in at the next election the negative gearing policy will also cause investment changes .

The next problem is rising interest rates and the resetting of loans to principle and interest payments . This will cause a more serious correction I believe and when it happens as you'll see Must Sell type property investors driving prices down . 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 10:31am
The prospect of a Labor govt and likely changes to negative gearing rules around investors and the halving of Chinese investment this year hasn't helped much.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 10:45am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

The prospect of a Labor govt and likely changes to negative gearing rules around investors and the halving of Chinese investment this year hasn't helped much.

The negative gearing changes is no bad thing either as I believe negative gearing is bad for the overall economy. It doesn't add wealth but is fuelled on borrowing that banks source primarily on O/S markets .  

That investment money would be better elsewhere in the economy . 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 10:47am
I meant bad for speculative investors who will look elsewhere, as their prospects of quick turnover are diminished.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 11:10am
You're right , but where will they look is an interesting question ? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 11:24am
Global politics will have a big bearing including who is the US President at the time and how long it is anticipated he will be there. With a US lead ever upward push in GDP rather than the last decades emphasis on certainty and stability, currencies will be dicey. Increasing interest rates to counter the resulting one sided inflation may still make real estate a safer investment despite regulatory changes. There has been a $25b reduction of Chinese money this year with Canada being a major beneficiary of it. It will take a year or so to sort out the wheat from the chaff and the level of a correction.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 11:38am
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

The banks changes in lending policy has caused the current pull back in prices . Its much much harder to qualify for a bank housing loan . 
 All the overseas investors getting all interest loans on No Doc of even Dodgy Doc incomes has largely disappeared . Also ,  if Labour get in at the next election the negative gearing policy will also cause investment changes .

The next problem is rising interest rates and the resetting of loans to principle and interest payments . This will cause a more serious correction I believe and when it happens as you'll see Must Sell type property investors driving prices down . 



AND, Unemployment will rise.

Peoples wages arent going up either. Its not matching the inflation.
Its all out of whack.
People cant meet their debts.
They are far too heavily invested into their homes, and cant make mortgage payments.

On top of this, investors are and will, sell on mass.
A friend of mine just offloaded a whopping 10 houses on the portfolio. and moved overseas, predicting one of the worst property crashes of the modern era, right here in Australia.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 11:44am
People need to understand something.
Just because a country is "nice" and people want to live here, doesnt make prices go up forever.

Heck, in America in 2009, you could buy a golf course condo, brand new, 6 bedrooms, immaculate front and back yard, for $60,000

The problem is, the dude nextdoor, was selling his condo, for $50,000.

People wont be paying a mill for an aussie house soon
the bidding is now bidding "down".

when people, in particular investors, start selling on mass, it triggers a tsunami of people bidding "down".

its already happening in brisbane, agents are bidding apartment prices down, because they cant sell at the top, because the landscape of competition is no longer favouring sellers, when bidding goes up.

People want to sell, have to sell.
And buyers, who can barely afford to buy, want to buy cheap.

Yep, there is a demand for housing. CHEAP housing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 11:51am
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

People need to understand something.
Just because a country is "nice" and people want to live here, doesnt make prices go up forever.

Heck, in America in 2009, you could buy a golf course condo, brand new, 6 bedrooms, immaculate front and back yard, for $60,000

The problem is, the dude nextdoor, was selling his condo, for $50,000.

People wont be paying a mill for an aussie house soon
the bidding is now bidding "down".

when people, in particular investors, start selling on mass, it triggers a tsunami of people bidding "down".

its already happening in brisbane, agents are bidding apartment prices down, because they cant sell at the top, because the landscape of competition is no longer favouring sellers, when bidding goes up.

People want to sell, have to sell.
And buyers, who can barely afford to buy, want to buy cheap.

Yep, there is a demand for housing. CHEAP housing.

wrong Brisbane real estate is appreciating

Why are luxury apartments booming in Brisbane?




Brisbane’s property market leading the nation


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 12:09pm
Thats the reale estate sector trying to talk itself up, create markets.

And as Melbourne and Sydney become too expensive, the population has to go/buy somewhere and obviously Brisbane is nest, or that is what the RE agents want you to think.

Tasmania is also increasing, and Adelaide.

SALESMEN....

but there is a lot of greed; ordinary Joe expects to double his purchase price, even now. the prospect of a less return is too scary.
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Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

. Increasing interest rates to counter the resulting one sided inflation may still make real estate a safer investment despite regulatory changes.

That’s the real problem atm with inflation being purely a Trump Bump and any rising interest rates not a true reflection of the economy here .
I read somewhere that the FED was predicting the Trump Bump to fizzle out in 2020 sometime .
If you think property is still ok then industrial inner city properties are like hens teeth.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 1:49pm
People looking for somewhere to park their money, have seen inner suburb retail freeholds sell for less than 2% yield Shocked

Of course if they are lucky enough to have spare cash
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 1:53pm
The Fed is talking rate rises and both Mnuchin are Trump are railing against it. I dont that Mnuchin, like Gary Cohn  didn't, has much faith in what is happening, but going along for the time being and hoping the Fed takes control.

A couple of Investment organisations have started to bring their forecast for the end of the sugar hit forward to before the 2020 election even into the early part of 2019. Expect more attempts to cut taxes while increasing the size of govt. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 2:33pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

People looking for somewhere to park their money, have seen inner suburb retail freeholds sell for less than 2% yield Shocked

Of course if they are lucky enough to have spare cash


That looks really expensive , particularly as the experts are saying retail is starting to struggle a bit .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 3:53pm
2% ?

There's no chance of short term capital gain.

Bank rates are even better than that......
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