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Australian property crash |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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If we ignore Dummy’s often stated position that house prices will plummet at the same time as rents going through the roof (never ever happened in any economy,ever)
And just focus on one or two of his fantasy investments. Let’s say he has 2 properties,both valued at a million. Property 1, 300k equity,700k loan Property 2 500k equity,500k loan. Let’s just say yield 4% average over 10 years, which is ridiculously understated. Fixed rate 25 year loan of 5% ( which is dearer than currently available) Dummy has stated many times that you should generally expect capital appreciation of around 7-8%, so let’s use a much lower rate of 6.5%. Property 1 value after 10 years $1.877M, loan balance $517k Equity after 10 years = $1.36M ..... net $1.06M ( note investment required additional $9k pa for cash flow shortfall ), so profit of approx 900k Property 2 value after 10 years $1.877M loan balance $370k Equity after 10 years = $1.507...net $1.07M No cash flow shortage so profit $1.07M Who thinks this is catastrophic???? |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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Doc is out of his depth
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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I am sure he will have a view on that Whale, straight after trackwork.
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31290 |
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Investments go up and down. Most investors in the free market know that. Property investors think they have some kind of right to be protected from downturns. Diddums.
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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I wouldn't take financial advice from Doc, this is how he normally goes:
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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Very true
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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Hey Dummy!
You still waiting on Bushy to give you the answer about what happened in 1985? The old fella gave you most of it,just before you left for trackwork this morning. Hint, BOOM in property 1987...... |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Your a mob of dk heads .
Show some appreciation for effort at least. Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc. I'll touch a few nerves by stating .. MOST of you doing the condemning. WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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Which you know how |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Using the laws of envy ( By typical response type ) That was a very good post by Doc.. Why deny it has merit. |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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Because it’s hopelessly wrong? By all means,challenge the back of beer coaster calcs I did to discredit the fools “hypothesis “. |
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Isaac soloman
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2015 Status: Offline Points: 6085 |
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thinking the same macca. docs doing the heavy lifting so pt and his cronies can draw a pension. quite disgraceful. mob of bludgers....
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Isaac soloman
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2015 Status: Offline Points: 6085 |
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an accountant on radio, yesterday, said he has mum and dad investors/clients who will be exiting the property market asap.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Refer ALP Election Promises
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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He did it for altruistic reasons did he lol No he did it because he is incredibly arrogant, 100% positive he is correct on every occasion and is driven to convince people of the fact. Hence the frenzied posting and long detailed posts. Having said that his post made some valid points. PS You seem to adore him Macca, jump to his defence like a lioness protecting her cubs. I get the feeling you would even turn for him
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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No I did not say I know Mr Sniper, I said I doubt it. And I really don't give a stuff, I know people who are REALLY rich, 9 figures, not impressed by some of them either But in your superficiality keep believing you have status
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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No one has to agree with everything Doc has said , he has made it plain his fears are not certain. Personally I've seen all this fear mongering , many times before and feel capital gain on good positions, has stood the test of time. When the economy needs it , Real Estate investment will be talked up , much the same. The Dog pack know that too , but want blood. |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Refer ALP Election Promises
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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That's only relevant if incoming legislation is specific to that asset class.
For example,if annual land tax was levied in every property in the nation,then naturally there would be an exodus to other assets such as shares. However capital gains covers all asset classes, if you sell property and invest in shares,you still have to pay CGT. Try again.... |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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Forget CGT, land tax kills investment
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Rusty you have been arguing that property investors will still make many - just not as much. I don’t understand your point above. Also - what in your mind is enough ? Less than bank interest ?
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Refer ALP Election Promises
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Refer ALP Election Promises
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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They would only do that,of a tax specific to property only was levied,such as land tax. I'm not promoting that idea,it's for illustration purposes only. How much is enough? No idea, I'm just staying that the finger painter constant shrieking about devastation is based on zero facts. It's easy to see using his numbers it will continue to be an attractive investment |
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Sneck
Champion Joined: 16 Feb 2013 Location: Payout Queue Status: Offline Points: 7555 |
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Looking at Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast. Wouldn't want to move away from an urban area at present. 1 or 2 bedroom apartment looking for the best deal I can get under first home buyers scheme dodging stamp duty. So it would be: 650k in Sydney (you really can't get much in most desirable locations might have to push to 700k but good lifestyle and family is here) 600k in Melbourne (many good apartments, very livable, but it's Melbourne) 500k(there's also 15k grant for new properties up to 750k) in Gold Coast (many pretty girls in surfers paradise) I've become a little pessimistic about the outlook for the property market, at least in the short term though. Admittedly I don't really know what I'm talking about here.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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My sons Hate going with me to purchase almost anything where the bartering is in play. Very reserved Men and feel embarrassed by my offers and strict negotiations. It is Business and a tough one ... I've seen punters take 3/1 when 5/1 was available next door. SIMILAR. Qld has been quite strong in the better areas ( like The Gold Coast ) I like Southport area .. The cycle has Syd. +Melb in gradual decline but Brisbane's turn , sees it strong ATM. Northside to Sunshine Coast anyway . As Doc says the election uncertainty is causing a stand off. Keep your cool for a bit longer. Buying " Right " is a must. Are you in for a Family home or one to let. |
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Sneck
Champion Joined: 16 Feb 2013 Location: Payout Queue Status: Offline Points: 7555 |
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I give nothing away in wagering and I've adopted that philosophy in life so I understand where you are coming from.
I'm keeping my options open, would reside there but I can see myself living overseas for a year or so in the not too distance future so rental demand is a factor.
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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[
I [/QUOTE] My sons Hate going with me to purchase almost anything where the bartering is in play. Very reserved Men and feel embarrassed by my offers and strict negotiations. It is Business and a tough one ... I've seenQld has been quite strong in the better areas ( like The Gold Coast ) I like Southport area .. The cycle has Syd. +Melb in gradual decline but Brisbane's turn , sees it strong ATM. Northside to Sunshine Coast anyway . As Doc says the election uncertainty is causing a stand off. Keep your cool for a bit longer. Buying " Right " is a must. Are you in for a Family home or one to let. [/QUOTE] I would love to have you along for property negotiations as long as we did not discuss anything but property I am like your sons , hate to bargain and it has cost me plenty
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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My sons Hate going with me to purchase almost anything where the bartering is in play. Very reserved Men and feel embarrassed by my offers and strict negotiations. It is Business and a tough one ... I've seenQld has been quite strong in the better areas ( like The Gold Coast ) I like Southport area .. The cycle has Syd. +Melb in gradual decline but Brisbane's turn , sees it strong ATM. Northside to Sunshine Coast anyway . As Doc says the election uncertainty is causing a stand off. Keep your cool for a bit longer. Buying " Right " is a must. Are you in for a Family home or one to let. [/QUOTE] I would love to have you along for property negotiations as long as we did not discuss anything but property I am like your sons , hate to bargain and it has cost me plenty [/QUOTE] Whale , I cry when I see properties advertised = Best offer over $450000. AND along comes a mug with a first offer of $460000. Has happened 3 times in the small Villa complex I'm in , in recent times. May I add , If I met you tomorrow , we would both meet a different person than we expect. Over a huge laugh. |
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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The anecdotal evidence is clear that the last time that the ALP removed negative gearing, rents in the areas with low vacancy rates increased, and demand for property decreased.
Only an idiot would suggest otherwise ... I bought my first property in Sydney shortly after that - yeah got a bit of a bargain, paid below asking the price ... sold it 4.5 years later for a 142% capital gain ... not so bad, but I'm still kicking myself for selling!
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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