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Australian property crash

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rusty nails View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 9:17am
If we ignore Dummy’s often stated position that house prices will plummet at the same time as rents going through the roof (never ever happened in any economy,ever)

And just focus on one or two of his fantasy investments.


Let’s say he has 2 properties,both valued at a million.
Property 1, 300k equity,700k loan
Property 2 500k equity,500k loan.

Let’s just say yield 4% average over 10 years, which is ridiculously understated.
Fixed rate 25 year loan of 5% ( which is dearer than currently available)
Dummy has stated many times that you should generally expect capital appreciation of around 7-8%, so let’s use a much lower rate of 6.5%.

Property 1 value after 10 years $1.877M, loan balance $517k
Equity after 10 years = $1.36M ..... net $1.06M ( note investment required additional $9k pa for cash flow shortfall ), so profit of approx 900k

Property 2 value after 10 years $1.877M loan balance $370k
Equity after 10 years = $1.507...net $1.07M
No cash flow shortage so profit $1.07M

Who thinks this is catastrophic????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 9:20am
Doc is out of his depth Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 9:24am
I am sure he will have a view on that Whale, straight after trackwork. LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 9:48am
Image result for rider falls off horse
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:10am
Investments go up and down. Most investors in the free market know that. Property investors think they have some kind of right to be protected from downturns. Diddums.
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:17am
I wouldn't take financial advice from Doc, this is how he normally goes:

Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2018 at 1:51pm
Pretty close to the bottom, still a bit more to come, a buyers market for sure!

What's on your shopping list PT? ... don't miss out on Neo and Trinity, and hold!

At that stage Neo was about $110, is now $10

As I said at the time pure stupid greed rushing in to invest cos he couldn't stomach the thought of others making money and not him Confused

His advice on property has as much validity
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:18am
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Investments go up and down. Most investors in the free market know that. Property investors think they have some kind of right to be protected from downturns. Diddums.

Very true
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:27am
Hey Dummy!
You still waiting on Bushy to give you the answer about what happened in 1985?

The old fella gave you most of it,just before you left for trackwork this morning.

Hint, BOOM in property 1987......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:38am
Your a mob of dk heads .

Show some appreciation for effort at least.   Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc.

   I'll touch a few nerves by stating ..    MOST of you doing the condemning.
        WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:43am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Your a mob of dk heads .

Show some appreciation for effort at least.   Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc.

   I'll touch a few nerves by stating ..    MOST of you doing the condemning.
        WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE



Which you know how  LOL

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:48am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Your a mob of dk heads .

Show some appreciation for effort at least.   Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc.

   I'll touch a few nerves by stating ..    MOST of you doing the condemning.
        WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE




Which you know how  LOL



Using the laws of envy   ( By typical response type )

That was a very good post by Doc..       Why deny it has merit.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:52am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Your a mob of dk heads .

Show some appreciation for effort at least.   Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc.

   I'll touch a few nerves by stating ..    MOST of you doing the condemning.
        WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE




Which you know how  LOL



Using the laws of envy   ( By typical response type )

That was a very good post by Doc..       Why deny it has merit.

Because it’s hopelessly wrong?

By all means,challenge the back of beer coaster calcs I did to discredit the fools “hypothesis “.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:53am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Your a mob of dk heads .

Show some appreciation for effort at least.   Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc.

   I'll touch a few nerves by stating ..    MOST of you doing the condemning.
        WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE

thinking the same macca.

docs doing the heavy lifting so pt and his cronies can draw a pension.

quite disgraceful.

mob of bludgers....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:55am
an accountant on radio, yesterday, said he has mum and dad investors/clients who will be exiting the property market asap.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:56am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Your a mob of dk heads .

Show some appreciation for effort at least.   Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc.

   I'll touch a few nerves by stating ..    MOST of you doing the condemning.
        WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE




Which you know how  LOL

Yes - not unlike some rabbit yesterday saying he knew who amongst us had money & who didn’t. 😂
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 10:59am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Your a mob of dk heads .

Show some appreciation for effort at least.   Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc.

   I'll touch a few nerves by stating ..    MOST of you doing the condemning.
        WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE

He did it for altruistic reasons did he lol

No he did it because he is incredibly arrogant, 100% positive he is correct on every occasion and is driven to convince people of the fact.

Hence the frenzied posting and long detailed posts.

Having said that his post made some valid points.

PS   You seem to adore him Macca, jump to his defence like a lioness protecting her cubs. I get the feeling you would even turn for him LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 11:03am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Your a mob of dk heads .

Show some appreciation for effort at least.   Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc.

   I'll touch a few nerves by stating ..    MOST of you doing the condemning.
        WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE




Which you know how  LOL

Yes - not unlike some rabbit yesterday saying he knew who amongst us had money & who didn’t. 😂

No I did not say I know Mr Sniper, I said I doubt it. And I really don't give a stuff, I know people who are REALLY rich, 9 figures, not impressed by some of them either

But in your superficiality keep believing you have status Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 11:06am
Originally posted by Isaac soloman Isaac soloman wrote:

an accountant on radio, yesterday, said he has mum and dad investors/clients who will be exiting the property market asap.

    No one has to agree with everything Doc has said , he has made it plain
his fears are not certain.
   Personally I've seen all this fear mongering , many times before and feel
capital gain on good positions, has stood the test of time.

When the economy needs it , Real Estate investment will be talked up , much the same.
    The Dog pack know that too , but want blood.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 11:08am
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Your a mob of dk heads .

Show some appreciation for effort at least.   Doc stated ( IF ) and agreed with normal cycle IF the CGT wasn't attacked to a major extent . Their succeeding in talking prices down now . A fear of Labor Governing etc.

   I'll touch a few nerves by stating ..    MOST of you doing the condemning.
        WOULDN'T OWN A HOUSE




Which you know how  LOL



Using the laws of envy   ( By typical response type )

That was a very good post by Doc..       Why deny it has merit.

Because it’s hopelessly wrong?

By all means,challenge the back of beer coaster calcs I did to discredit the fools “hypothesis “.
If you make one investment area less attractive in comparison to others you will see the investment flow follow suit. This in turn will further stress the market - one that is already going through a large correction. You cannot look at one area in isolation Rusty - which is what you are doing. Your argument that investors will still make a profit is nonsense if it leads them to invest in other areas that make more profit. Not rocket science
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 11:42am
That's only relevant if incoming legislation is specific to that asset class.
For example,if annual land tax was levied in every property in the nation,then naturally there would be an exodus to other assets such as shares.

However capital gains covers all asset classes, if you sell property and invest in shares,you still have to pay CGT.
Try again....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 11:48am
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

That's only relevant if incoming legislation is specific to that asset class.
For example,if annual land tax was levied in every property in the nation,then naturally there would be an exodus to other assets such as shares.

However capital gains covers all asset classes, if you sell property and invest in shares,you still have to pay CGT.
Try again....

Forget CGT, land tax kills investment
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 11:52am
Rusty you have been arguing that property investors will still make many - just not as much. I don’t understand your point above. Also - what in your mind is enough ? Less than bank interest ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 11:53am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Rusty you have been arguing that property investors will still make many - just not as much. I don’t understand your point above. Also - what in your mind is enough ? Less than bank interest ?
* money
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 12:03pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Rusty you have been arguing that property investors will still make many - just not as much. I don’t understand your point above. Also - what in your mind is enough ? Less than bank interest ?
people aren't going to sell their property ^ buy shares to avoid CGT, because they still have to pay it.
They would only do that,of a tax specific to property only was levied,such as land tax.
I'm not promoting that idea,it's for illustration purposes only.

How much is enough?
No idea, I'm just staying that the finger painter constant shrieking about devastation is based on zero facts.
It's easy to see using his numbers it will continue to be an attractive investment
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 1:18pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

Thanks for the reply Doc, nice effort post.
I've got the money to enter the market as a first home buyer, even to buy outright, but the last thing I want is to immediately lose big value because of bad labor policy. 
I already have enough reasons to hate them.


Good to see you show appreciation to Docs time consuming effort. Based on experience and Business know how . ( I've always known his capabilities )
You haven't mentioned your area of interest with a purchase in mind .    I'm sure Doc will steer you right with some particulars.

   My Family have done well with Real Estate over many years.
Followed the same pattern of purchase .        . Market down, seek out the many urgent sails and make plenty of offers ( WELL below asking prices I may add.       You will get knocked back mostly ( or you offered too much)
Stick to your guns and there is an acceptance round the next corner.
Last buy I negotiated successfully for was on my Sons behalf .
Agent price $395000=   Offer $339000 Very quiet times Brisbane 3 years ago.    Answer NO but will accept $355000 my NO ...    Told them the cash offer stands for 1 week .     Accepted $339 in 6 days.
Take everything in .   Talk to Doc ( hesitation is buyers worst enemy )
REMEMBER Your buying the land position , You can renovate the house to anything.
You did well but I'm not sure how I'd get on offering 650k for a 750k property in Sydney. Demand hasn't completely dried up at auction yet in desirable locations. 
Looking at Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast. Wouldn't want to move away from an urban area at present. 1 or 2 bedroom apartment looking for the best deal I can get under first home buyers scheme dodging stamp duty. So it would be:
650k in Sydney (you really can't get much in most desirable locations might have to push to 700k but good lifestyle and family is here)
600k in Melbourne (many good apartments, very livable, but it's Melbourne)
500k(there's also 15k grant for new properties up to 750k) in Gold Coast (many pretty girls in surfers paradise)
I've become a little pessimistic about the outlook for the property market, at least in the short term though. Admittedly I don't really know what I'm talking about here. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 1:34pm
Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

Thanks for the reply Doc, nice effort post.
I've got the money to enter the market as a first home buyer, even to buy outright, but the last thing I want is to immediately lose big value because of bad labor policy. 
I already have enough reasons to hate them.


Good to see you show appreciation to Docs time consuming effort. Based on experience and Business know how . ( I've always known his capabilities )
You haven't mentioned your area of interest with a purchase in mind .    I'm sure Doc will steer you right with some particulars.

   My Family have done well with Real Estate over many years.
Followed the same pattern of purchase .        . Market down, seek out the many urgent sails and make plenty of offers ( WELL below asking prices I may add.       You will get knocked back mostly ( or you offered too much)
Stick to your guns and there is an acceptance round the next corner.
Last buy I negotiated successfully for was on my Sons behalf .
Agent price $395000=   Offer $339000 Very quiet times Brisbane 3 years ago.    Answer NO but will accept $355000 my NO ...    Told them the cash offer stands for 1 week .     Accepted $339 in 6 days.
Take everything in .   Talk to Doc ( hesitation is buyers worst enemy )
REMEMBER Your buying the land position , You can renovate the house to anything.
You did well but I'm not sure how I'd get on offering 650k for a 750k property in Sydney. Demand hasn't completely dried up at auction yet in desirable locations. 
Looking at Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast. Wouldn't want to move away from an urban area at present. 1 or 2 bedroom apartment looking for the best deal I can get under first home buyers scheme dodging stamp duty. So it would be:
650k in Sydney (you really can't get much in most desirable locations might have to push to 700k but good lifestyle and family is here)
600k in Melbourne (many good apartments, very livable, but it's Melbourne)
500k(there's also 15k grant for new properties up to 750k) in Gold Coast (many pretty girls in surfers paradise)
I've become a little pessimistic about the outlook for the property market, at least in the short term though. Admittedly I don't really know what I'm talking about here. 


   My sons Hate going with me to purchase almost anything where the bartering is in play.      Very reserved Men and feel embarrassed by my offers and strict negotiations.
It is Business and a tough one ...    I've seen punters take 3/1 when 5/1 was available next door. SIMILAR.
Qld has been quite strong in the better areas ( like The Gold Coast )
I like Southport area ..
The cycle has Syd. +Melb in gradual decline but Brisbane's turn , sees it strong ATM.   Northside to Sunshine Coast anyway .
As Doc says the election uncertainty is causing a stand off.
Keep your cool for a bit longer. Buying " Right " is a must.
Are you in for a Family home or one to let.
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 1:55pm
I give nothing away in wagering and I've adopted that philosophy in life so I understand where you are coming from.
I'm keeping my options open, would reside there but I can see myself living overseas for a year or so in the not too distance future so rental demand is a factor.
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[
I
[/QUOTE] 
   My sons Hate going with me to purchase almost anything where the bartering is in play.      Very reserved Men and feel embarrassed by my offers and strict negotiations.
It is Business and a tough one ...    I've seenQld has been quite strong in the better areas ( like The Gold Coast )
I like Southport area ..
The cycle has Syd. +Melb in gradual decline but Brisbane's turn , sees it strong ATM.   Northside to Sunshine Coast anyway .
As Doc says the election uncertainty is causing a stand off.
Keep your cool for a bit longer. Buying " Right " is a must.
Are you in for a Family home or one to let.
    [/QUOTE]


I would love to have you along for property negotiations as long as we did not discuss anything but property Smile

I am like your sons , hate to bargain and it has cost me plenty
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 3:07pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

[
I
 
   My sons Hate going with me to purchase almost anything where the bartering is in play.      Very reserved Men and feel embarrassed by my offers and strict negotiations.
It is Business and a tough one ...    I've seenQld has been quite strong in the better areas ( like The Gold Coast )
I like Southport area ..
The cycle has Syd. +Melb in gradual decline but Brisbane's turn , sees it strong ATM.   Northside to Sunshine Coast anyway .
As Doc says the election uncertainty is causing a stand off.
Keep your cool for a bit longer. Buying " Right " is a must.
Are you in for a Family home or one to let.
    [/QUOTE]


I would love to have you along for property negotiations as long as we did not discuss anything but property Smile

I am like your sons , hate to bargain and it has cost me plenty

[/QUOTE]     Whale , I cry when I see properties advertised   = Best offer over $450000.     AND along comes a mug with a first offer of $460000.    Has happened 3 times in the small Villa complex I'm in , in recent times.
May I add ,   If I met you tomorrow , we would both meet a different person than we expect.   Over a huge laugh.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 3:38pm
The anecdotal evidence is clear that the last time that the ALP removed negative gearing, rents in the areas with low vacancy rates increased, and demand for property decreased.

Only an idiot would suggest otherwise ... I bought my first property in Sydney shortly after that - yeah got a bit of a bargain, paid below asking the price Wink 

... sold it 4.5 years later for a 142% capital gain ... not so bad, but I'm still kicking myself for selling!Cry
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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