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Australian property crash

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    Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 3:50pm
There you go, as predicted on this forum in 2009.
They said it would never happen. Could have they been anymore wrong?
And its STILL crashing. Down down, prices are down.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Pacific/Australia/Price-History
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Toll Road Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 7:54pm
Prperty crashes are all good is you're all ccashed up then you buy,buy,buy.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 7:55pm
Tend to agree with this,, (written by Stephen Stekhoven)

What is missing from most house price analyses is the fact that there are qualitative factors at play: New York or Paris are clearly more desirable places to live than Detroit.

I have lived in Sydney (27 years), Melbourne (19 years) and now Brisbane (9 years). I was a one-eyed Sydneysider besotted by its bridge, its harbour, its 'Rocks' and Opera House: I espoused the hackneyed 'best thing to come out of Melbourne is the road to Sydney' view and depite that I feel I am in a position to judge which city affords the best broadly accessible lifestyle.
Let me say: it ain't Sydney. Sure, the place has its charms, if you live at Cremorne Point in a renovated sandstone and tuck pointed brick bungalow overlooking the Quay on a $500,000 plus salary, quaffing your choice of pinot noir. The picture is probably not so rosy for those on average incomes battling Victoria Rd traffic from their $700,000 two bedroom, 1 bathroom, ex housing commission shacks in the endlessly dreary western suburban wasteland.
Brisbane? Not really. There's too much 'me too-ism'; it's parochial; a there's a heavy handed monolithic local government stifling cultural creativity led by the 'can do' man whose self-recommendation beggars belief when you stack it up against actual achievement. Starved of cultural fulfillment; the big productions sell out in days if and when they finally venture north. It's hard to find a decent feed at a reasonable price; there's overpriced public transport; poor traffic management and the much vaunted weather is frankly somewhat overrated. It is a housing arbitrager's market that lags the spikes in Sydney and Melbourne prices. It's a place of retreat from the action to pass one's days in bored resignation.
A recent trip to Melbourne brought it all flooding back. Leafy suburbs; public transport that works well; the opportunity to take in a big match at the Melbourne Park Tennis Centre; eat a delicious meal at any of a few hundred urbane, well priced restaurants. Catch up for a coffee in the 'laneways' buzzing with activity; go grunge alternative in Smith St, Fitzroy where affordable rents allow for youthful entrepreneurial experimentation. Take in a game at the MCG or the Dome and feel the palpable emotion. Enjoy the vast parklands or the vibrant theatre scene or the easily accessible weekend retreats of the Yarra Valley, Great Ocean Road or Mt Macedon and Daylesford to name but a few. The sporting and big event capital of Australia, the research capital serviced by the number two and three universities in the country behind ANU, Melbourne is simply a fabulous place to live.
Overpriced? Maybe. But I ask you: what price is a life?




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 8:09pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

There you go, as predicted on this forum in 2009.



They are going up here Wink

What about your prediction Westpac would shut their doors and you advised everyone here to take their money out Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 8:18pm
Australian houses are vastly overpriced as are many things in Australia.
For a small country at the arse end of the world we sure know how to charge
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nocturnal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 8:20pm
When did they let you out Brooke ? Welcome back , I think
The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 8:04am
Wagga? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waggamick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 8:13am
Please note that the above post was not an error.
The Dude Abides
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 8:39am
Stood corrected Smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 8:54am
Originally posted by Nocturnal Nocturnal wrote:

When did they let you out Brooke ? Welcome back , I think
Should be asking for her money back............treatment obviously hasn't worked ! Same topics / same pack drill
Give peace a chance
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 9:26am

Architects of housing fortune

House prices are surging and the rate at which prices are increasing is, if anything, accelerating. This should not only kill off the remaining iota of hope for a further interest rate cut, but it could see the Reserve Bank of Australia move to a bias to hike interest rates before year end.

According to RPData, house prices in the five major cities have risen a stonking 1.4 per cent so far in March (annualised pace of close to 20 per cent) and are now are up a solid 2.7 per cent year-to-date in 2013 (annualised pace of 12 per cent). It seems uncontroversial to be thinking, given this strength, that house prices will rise 10 per cent this year. The risk is building that the rise could be significantly more.

And when house prices pick up in Australia, they usually have a year where the rise is 15 to 20 per cent. With interest rates as low as they are now, the unemployment rate anchored at a remarkably low rate and real wages registering solid gains, there is no reason why there shouldn’t be a rise well above 10 per cent by year end.



Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/3/27/property/architects-housing-fortune#ixzz2Ogg7gIhc
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 9:32am
What a spoil sport BD, debunking the fantasy with facts Ouch
Don't waste time on past disagreements, find new ones to fight over
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 9:32am
Embarrassed
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 10:20am
Browndog, congrats on referencing your Resource.
But note the quality(and lack of) Resource you have used.
Its just a business article. Basically as good as a Real Estate agent telling you that its a great time to buy.

I get my statistics from The Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Not only have they rightly pointed out, by using MATHEMATICAL GOVERNMENT DATA, (not real estate agent data), that Australian Property is on the slide down.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics also recently concluded in an enormous Study they did, that investing in Australian housing, overall, in the longrun, represents a loss.
Sure, some win. But hey, some do in gambling too.
But overall, investing in property, is a loss in the longrun, and Bureau of Statistics has proven that mathematically.
Data from a Real estate agent doesnt interest me.

Stick to this,,,,,
Save up for a deposit, as much as you can, get yourself a nice property, with as little debt attached to it as possible, and LIVE IN IT. Call it HOME.
Now thats PRICELESS.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 10:47am


Hardly a real estate agent Brooke Ouch

Stephen Koukoulas has a rare and specialised professional experience over more than 25 years as an economist in government, as Global Head of economic and market research, a Chief Economist for two major banks and as economic advisor to the Prime Minister.

Stephen is currently Managing Director of Market Economics Pty Ltd, a firm he recently established in response to the growing need for independent and tailored macroeconomic analysis for business clients needing to convert economic data into financial market and policy risks. His work provides clients with unique insights into the macroeconomic policy debate.

Between September 2010 and July 2011, Stephen was Senior Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard MP having moved there from a senior role in the Commonwealth Treasury. Before that, Stephen spent three years in London as the Global Head of research and strategy for TD Securities.

Stephen has also spent 10 years as a Senior Economist and Chief Economist of Citibank Australia and Chief Strategist at TD Securities in Sydney. Between 1999 and 2001 he was The Australian Financial Review’s Economics Analyst.

Stephen is a graduate of the ANU following which he gained an unique insight into the workings of government as an economist in the Commonwealth Treasury during the late 1980s and early 1990s. In Treasury, Stephen worked in areas covering economic forecasting, monetary policy analysis, current economic conditions and the international economy.

Stephen’s experience is clearly very wide with his understanding of political economy, policy and financial market issues. These are important in getting insights into the economic policy and makes his analysis and services highly sought after.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 11:19am
The property boom is the ugliest thing to happen to Australia in my lifetime. And all funded by debt. In round figures, a trillion dollars worth of it. Wise heads have calculated that the price of houses, and rents, would be roughly half where they are are without the de-regulation of the banking sector. This has been compounded by the absurd practice of negative gearing tax advantages to investors in rental houses. This made a residential house somehow into a business, a very strange idea since it does not employ anyone. On the basis that there is no nett advantage to the nation from allowing vast amounts of savings of Asian countries to be used to push up the price of housing, but in fact a massive nett disadvantage ( sure there have been some winners, but for the vast majority it has been neutral, or a serious impost) the astute observer arrives at the conclusion that the politicians who presided over this are not worth a cracker, and that is being polite. Next time you hear some dishonest politician trumpeting about many years of successive economic growth, remember that all this foreign money shovelled into the place was counted, incredibly, as "growth". The chickens have yet to come home to roost in this debacle, the only thing that has kept the housing prices high is continued importation of money, and the strong local deposits in banks under the govt guarantee. If the tap was to be turned off, the prices will indeed crash. The housing boom is ugly, because it reveals widespread greed to get rich off unfortunates who only want a basic roof over their head. I am sure people like "Nugget" Coombs are spinning in their graves at this incompetence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 11:39am
I wouldn't get too concerned about her currency predictions, unless she made a bet about it and welched on it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 12:04pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

The property boom is the ugliest thing to happen to Australia in my lifetime. And all funded by debt. In round figures, a trillion dollars worth of it. Wise heads have calculated that the price of houses, and rents, would be roughly half where they are are without the de-regulation of the banking sector. This has been compounded by the absurd practice of negative gearing tax advantages to investors in rental houses. This made a residential house somehow into a business, a very strange idea since it does not employ anyone. On the basis that there is no nett advantage to the nation from allowing vast amounts of savings of Asian countries to be used to push up the price of housing, but in fact a massive nett disadvantage ( sure there have been some winners, but for the vast majority it has been neutral, or a serious impost) the astute observer arrives at the conclusion that the politicians who presided over this are not worth a cracker, and that is being polite. Next time you hear some dishonest politician trumpeting about many years of successive economic growth, remember that all this foreign money shovelled into the place was counted, incredibly, as "growth". The chickens have yet to come home to roost in this debacle, the only thing that has kept the housing prices high is continued importation of money, and the strong local deposits in banks under the govt guarantee. If the tap was to be turned off, the prices will indeed crash. The housing boom is ugly, because it reveals widespread greed to get rich off unfortunates who only want a basic roof over their head. I am sure people like "Nugget" Coombs are spinning in their graves at this incompetence.


Outstanding post Max. Bravo. Bravo. Clap
Spot on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 10:56am
Article today

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8633700/job-worries-keep-mortgage-holders-stressed
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 11:05am
By the way, for any Melbournians on this website, take a trip to Mulgrave area, Springvale Road, the Industrial zone.
once a mass of activity, employment, large companies.
now its building after building up for lease and totally vacant. turning into a mini detroit.
more examples of people that cant pay their mortgages, and have to sell, and in a hurry.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 11:24am
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

By the way, for any Melbournians on this website, take a trip to Mulgrave area, Springvale Road, the Industrial zone.
once a mass of activity, employment, large companies.
now its building after building up for lease and totally vacant. turning into a mini detroit.
more examples of people that cant pay their mortgages, and have to sell, and in a hurry.

 
So, I am confused. Is it an industrial zone as you mention in your first sentence, or people that can't pay their mortgages?
Businesses are struggling, maybe they are in exports and getting killed by the high dollar that you predicted would disappear and hasn't?
Buy in a good area and you won't lose on your house. Live in the sticks, and suburbs of mcmansions, then you may struggle, as those areas are funded on zero deposit and people living above their means.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 11:27am
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

By the way, for any Melbournians on this website, take a trip to Mulgrave area, Springvale Road, the Industrial zone.
once a mass of activity, employment, large companies.
now its building after building up for lease and totally vacant. turning into a mini detroit.
more examples of people that cant pay their mortgages, and have to sell, and in a hurry.

 
So, I am confused. Is it an industrial zone as you mention in your first sentence, or people that can't pay their mortgages?
Businesses are struggling, maybe they are in exports and getting killed by the high dollar that you predicted would disappear and hasn't?
Buy in a good area and you won't lose on your house. Live in the sticks, and suburbs of mcmansions, then you may struggle, as those areas are funded on zero deposit and people living above their means.


Noticed exactly the same thing but decided not to post, after all you don't expect "logical" arguments from some people Ouch
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Muffin Man Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 11:39am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

By the way, for any Melbournians on this website, take a trip to Mulgrave area, Springvale Road, the Industrial zone.
once a mass of activity, employment, large companies.
now its building after building up for lease and totally vacant. turning into a mini detroit.
more examples of people that cant pay their mortgages, and have to sell, and in a hurry.

 
So, I am confused. Is it an industrial zone as you mention in your first sentence, or people that can't pay their mortgages?
Businesses are struggling, maybe they are in exports and getting killed by the high dollar that you predicted would disappear and hasn't?
Buy in a good area and you won't lose on your house. Live in the sticks, and suburbs of mcmansions, then you may struggle, as those areas are funded on zero deposit and people living above their means.


Noticed exactly the same thing but decided not to post, after all you don't expect "logical" arguments from some people Ouch


LOL

I also noticed the exact same thing, and then was going to post the exact same thing as whale but thought, what's the point? Take solace from the fact you are confused by BROOKE's posts subby, it means your brain is still functioning. LOL

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 11:56am
The reference to the industrial zone, is that its meant to be a hype of activity for JOBS.
But its becoming a ghost town of commercial buildings being up for LEASE.
So many of the buildings are vacant.
the area literally had thousands of people employed. even just 5 years ago.
drive around there now, and its lease after lease after lease, vacant buildings.
where did all the people go??? they would have had mortgages, even if they lived in Bentleigh and travelled to Mulgrave to work.
Mulgrave isnt exactly outer east.
Narre warren etc is outer east.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Apr 2013 at 11:04am
House price index has increased 6 moths in a row
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2013 at 2:18pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

House price index has increased 6 moths in a row


in darwin
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jayzaa Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2013 at 2:30pm
All over according to news report
www.keffelstein.com

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saintly96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2013 at 2:57pm
http://www.smh.com.au/business/home-prices-rising-as-rate-cuts-fuel-confidence-20130402-2h3wl.html



Sydney has become the first capital city to regain all of the ground lost since the onset of the 2010 property slump, while Melbourne has bucked predictions of further price falls.

Analysts RP Data-Rismark report that Sydney dwelling values grew 1.5 per cent last month, capping a growth trend that began nearly a year ago and has made it the only city to fully recover the losses of the last three years, with the dwelling value reaching a new peak in March.



Overall, Australia's housing market posted another strong month of value rises, with nearly every capital city in the country experiencing growth.

The national dwelling value rose 1.3 per cent in March, making it the second strongest monthly performance since the onset of the slump.

"[Nationally] the March 2013 result is one of the strongest we've seen over the 3 years since March 2010," said Rismark International CEO Ben Skilbeck, who noted that only one capital city, Adelaide, experienced no growth.

RP Data senior research analyst Cameron Kusher said the Sydney market has been "quite strong in Sydney since May last year."

"Sydney has experienced a long period of sustained under performance. There's not a lot of new construction taking place but population growth is starting to ramp up again, which is what I really think is driving that market.

Melbourne dwelling values rose 0.8 per cent over the month, seemingly contradicting the Reserve Bank's prediction last week that more falls were ahead for the city.

Values also rose 0.4 per cent in Canberra, 1 per cent in Brisbane, 2.4 per cent in Darwin, 2.5 per cent in Hobart and 3.4 per cent in Perth.

But, unlike Sydney, values in virtually all of the capital cities still remain well below their 2010 peaks despite the recent trend that has seen a return to growth.

Brisbane is still 9.5 per cent down, while Melbourne is 6.2 per cent lower. The national dwelling value remains 3 per cent below peak.

The RBA board left official interest rates at 3 per cent on Tuesday, following its April meeting.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2013 at 12:56am
People have to remember, that even if property just flatlines(doesnt go up or down), thats actually a huge loss, as there is big cost in maintaining a property, and also rates, councils, body corporates etc.
So lets say you buy at 480,000, and it sits at 480,000, for 3 or 4 years, thats a huge loss.
The market will call it "steady", but the truth is, its a LOSS, as real estate articles dont factor in all the running cost of the property, eg Rates etc.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vontastic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Apr 2013 at 9:58pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

People have to remember, that even if property just flatlines(doesnt go up or down), thats actually a huge loss, as there is big cost in maintaining a property, and also rates, councils, body corporates etc.
So lets say you buy at 480,000, and it sits at 480,000, for 3 or 4 years, thats a huge loss.
The market will call it "steady", but the truth is, its a LOSS, as real estate articles dont factor in all the running cost of the property, eg Rates etc.

I have a property and rental income pays all costs
and capital rises average 10% per year


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