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Alessandro - Surely A Derby COLT.

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Shawy38 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2018 at 9:34am
I Dm the Griffith Racing page on twitter and asked them.
They replied
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ExceedAndExcel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2018 at 9:40am
Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

I Dm the Griffith Racing page on twitter and asked them.
They replied



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ExceedAndExcel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2018 at 8:16pm
So currently 24th in the ballot order, does he get a run?

Who above him currently won’t go to the Derby? Surely several will drop out after yesterday and then again after the Vase on Saturday?

http://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Weights.aspx?Key=2018Nov03,VIC,Flemington
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Shrunk in the Wash View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2018 at 6:40am
There’s 5 or 6 above him who shouldn’t but probably will.

Botti might win this weekend and leapfrog him as well
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djebel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 2018 at 1:52pm
Looks as though he is struggling to make the field. 




reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Magnolian Khan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Oct 2018 at 8:44am
First emergency
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Oct 2018 at 10:51am
This appears to be an example of what frequently irritates me about balloting.

Alessandro is rated higher than two who've made the field, and on face value he appears to have missed out because the other two have won more prizemoney.  Surely rating should the prime determinant?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Oct 2018 at 10:57am
Why? Rating is up to the discretion of someone that can be bias or wrong and makes it unclear what trainers need to do in order to get into a field. Prizemoney is black and white, completely fair as everyone knows exactly where they and the competition are at.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Oct 2018 at 11:06am
It doesn't make any difference whether ratings are right or wrong.  They're just as crystal clear as is prizemoney, and for that reason trainers similarly are in a position to determine what they need to do in order to make it into a field.

Win or run a good race to increase prizemoney, or win or run a good race to lift rating, there's no difference in the purpose and intent.  And that's why class should ultimately prevail before prizemoney imo.

But over to others.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Oct 2018 at 11:28am
Prizemoney includes bonus payments like Vobis etc, so they are hardly a reliable figure any more.

On the other hand, trainers are paid good money to care for their horses and to program races.  The failure to make the field is clearly the responsibility of the trainer rather than the system.

All of the horses above him came through city races or the Geelong Classic, the traditional lead-up for the Derby, so it is probably hard to make a case that whatever rating is obtained in a BM64 at Cranbourne or Benalla is sufficient to gain a start.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Oct 2018 at 4:45pm
I am disappointed he has not made the field but I have no issue with the trainer not running in the Geelong Classic.

It's an interesting conundrum he runs at Geelong he is probably over the top for the Derby, he doesn't run at Geelong he is not in the race at all.

Hopefully he gets to the ATC Derby.




reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 8:45pm
If he fails to get a start in the VRC Derby on Saturday, he’s also entered for the Batman Hcp (Listed) on Oaks Day - 3yo over 1800m.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 11:41pm
Originally posted by Lord Hybrow Lord Hybrow wrote:

If he fails to get a start in the VRC Derby on Saturday, he’s also entered for the Batman Hcp (Listed) on Oaks Day - 3yo over 1800m.


It's crazy there is not a lower grade 2500 or 2000m race for those who did get to The Derby.




reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 2018 at 6:27am
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by Lord Hybrow Lord Hybrow wrote:

If he fails to get a start in the VRC Derby on Saturday, he’s also entered for the Batman Hcp (Listed) on Oaks Day - 3yo over 1800m.


It's crazy there is not a lower grade 2500 or 2000m race for those who did get to The Derby.


Not sure they would get a field. There can't be that many queued up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 2018 at 10:07am
That is why the distance of the Batman was reduced to 1800m from 2000m.  The fields were too small. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote room for a slew Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Nov 2018 at 5:53am
Eliminated 😡
So some horses with no chance whatsoever can put the pace on for their stablemates😡
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Nov 2018 at 6:06am
That's a shame missing out by having $1110 less prizemoney than the the 18th horse. Oh well, the trainer/manager could've place him better to guarantee a start.

Some of the horses in the Derby field would get beat by 20L, real shame.

Why couldn't VRC start with all 20 runners? Melb Cup has 24
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Nov 2018 at 6:09am
Originally posted by Gee Gee Gee Gee wrote:

That's a shame missing out by having $1110 less prizemoney than the the 18th horse. Oh well, the trainer/manager could've place him better to guarantee a start.

Some of the horses in the Derby field would get beat by 20L, real shame.

Why couldn't VRC start with all 20 runners? Melb Cup has 24



2500m start is too close to the first bend to safely accomodate more than 16.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Grieves Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Nov 2018 at 9:15am
Yet the field limit for the Hotham is 18
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Nov 2018 at 9:40am
It is unfortunate he has failed to gain a start but they can now set him for the Sydney Derby. Should be no worries about numbers there just quality.






reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Nov 2018 at 3:59pm
Originally posted by Mr Grieves Mr Grieves wrote:

Yet the field limit for the Hotham is 18



Had not noticed that. That is strange then.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Nov 2018 at 4:03pm
Less experienced horses, less starters.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Nov 2018 at 12:15pm
Barrier 7 on Thurs field of 14, 1800m
Come up at $9
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Nov 2018 at 3:07pm
Nice price.  

The filly Waka was good on Sale Cup day but she's drawn outside him.  

The favourite is Junipal from DKW who won his Donald maiden by 10 and was always wide and did tough at Caulfield behind Syd's Coin but he has a crook draw in 13. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SkyDancer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 5:49am
Scratched today
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Racing Carrot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 9:15am
Given the way the Derby was run to suit, he really missed a big chance he may not get again.
 
Sure there are other races later in the season but it only gets harder from here.   He'd have to travel for the ATC Derby which means Sydney colts at home plus it gets supplemented by NZ horses.  Then when he turns four he has to face hordes of Euros/imports in any decent staying race.
 
If I had a half decent staying 3yo I'd throw it in whatever needed to get a run in the Derby because it's the best chance most of them will ever get to win a million dollar race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 9:25am
I tend to agree Carrot but perhaps his scratching today and his very light campaign indicates there may be other impediments ?   

I don't know, but I am not sure Griffiths would have been content with $28,000 in the bank to get a Derby run if he had a viable alternative.  Reading between the lines it seems they ran out of time to get the horse right for the Derby.  He looked a run behind where he needed to be.

Today's race looked very winnable.  There must be an issue. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Racing Carrot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 10:19am
Originally posted by Tontonan Tontonan wrote:

I tend to agree Carrot but perhaps his scratching today and his very light campaign indicates there may be other impediments ?   

I don't know, but I am not sure Griffiths would have been content with $28,000 in the bank to get a Derby run if he had a viable alternative.  Reading between the lines it seems they ran out of time to get the horse right for the Derby.  He looked a run behind where he needed to be.

Today's race looked very winnable.  There must be an issue. 
 
Yes it seems could be he wasn't quite ready anyway.
 
What I meant more though was no backup plan after the Geelong Classic.  A top 8 finish there would have gotten him into the Derby.  But if he had to be scratched there then even a placing in any country race 2000m+ would have been sufficient. 
 
As it is he's now missed what was likely his best chance at a race worth that much.  Future staying contests won't only be full of local horses, half of whom will probably never run past 2000m again.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 10:24am
There are plenty of races for him.

I am kind of glad he missed that slugfest and was not raced into the ground to get into the race.

Hopefully whatever caused his scratching today is not too big an issue.






reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Racing Carrot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 11:21am
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

There are plenty of races for him.

I am kind of glad he missed that slugfest and was not raced into the ground to get into the race.

Hopefully whatever caused his scratching today is not too big an issue.
 
There are "plenty of races", the thing is how many $2 million dollar races is he likely to be a realistic chance in over his career?  Unlike in decades past, once they hit 4 it's basically game over as they run into a heap of imported and European horses. 
 
See former useful 3yo Sir Charles Road as an example, 7th in the Cup on Tuesday at 100-1 that would have been a 2nd to Youngstar in a pre import era.  Even the Sydney Cup is a risk to attract overseas raiders at times, albeit they avoided it last season-SCR probably doesn't run 3rd in that vs decent European stayers.
 
For that type of horse Alessandro seems to be the Victoria Derby is about as good as it gets-locals only and many non stayers.
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