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2019 Melbourne Cup

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djebel View Drop Down
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    Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 9:04pm


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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correctweight View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 2:51am
Going really early I see
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djebel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 2:47am
Ghostwatch just won in nice style at Ascot.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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djebel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Nov 2018 at 9:27pm
Ghostwatch................
Extra Brut...................105
Stars Of Carrum.........95
Alessandro..................67
Grey Khan...................60


WHat sort of handicapping is this ? 5 kgs difference between Extra Brut and Stars Of Carrum is bullgelati.





STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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VOYAGER View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Nov 2018 at 3:13pm
What price Who Shot Thebarman
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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VOYAGER View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2018 at 3:46pm
From that race 45 minutes ago.

Finche and Marmelo the two for next year.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2018 at 3:53pm
Thought another NH 3yo in Rostropovich was also super today.  Never better than 4 wide without cover throughout and a huge effort to guts it out for 5th.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Smoke and Mirrors Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2018 at 4:28pm
Winner will be trained at Werribee
"Go Hard or Go Home, you're at the 'bool"
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acacia alba View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2018 at 4:45pm
Originally posted by Smoke and Mirrors Smoke and Mirrors wrote:

Winner will be trained at Werribee


Not doubting you know more than me, but they just said its off to Dubai ???Confused
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Smoke and Mirrors Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2018 at 4:52pm
Originally posted by acacia alba acacia alba wrote:

Originally posted by Smoke and Mirrors Smoke and Mirrors wrote:

Winner will be trained at Werribee


Not doubting you know more than me, but they just said its off to Dubai ???Confused


This is the thread for next years Cup.
All I meant was, trained at Werribee - another international winning
"Go Hard or Go Home, you're at the 'bool"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2018 at 9:41pm
Ohhh  Thumbs Up
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Nov 2018 at 9:24am
Chapada
Visao
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Nov 2018 at 11:42am
I am very eager to see how Waller trains Finche over the next 12 months.

A nice soft Lloyd autumn campaign starting off in the Australian Cup, then into the Tancred and then either the Sydney Cup or Queen Elizabeth should tick him over nicely.

If he does the old start him at 1200 or 1400m, and runs him every fortnight, then he ruins the horse.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Nov 2018 at 6:22pm
The race has zero interest for me now as far as betting goes. What is next year's winner, another NH 3YO, up to at the moment?
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 8:59am
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

The race has zero interest for me now as far as betting goes. What is next year's winner, another NH 3YO, up to at the moment?


To answer my own question, at this time last year Cross Counter was unraced.

I've just come across something interesting. The racingpost form says "gelding notification", after he won his first two starts. Did they geld him after his first two starts, which sounds very odd to me, or is that when the public was notified he was a gelding, also odd, or is just the weird way racingpost format their form?

"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 10:46am
If Cross Counter returns...what weight would he get roughly?
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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cross counter would get about 56kg i reckon
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 3:26pm
Originally posted by TOLEDO TOLEDO wrote:

cross counter would get about 56kg i reckon


I reckon around 55kg...providing he doesnt win much from here on in towards the Cup.
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TOLEDO Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 3:28pm
Probably closer to 57 actually.    he was 4.5kg under wfa so assume 2.5kg penalty to 2kg under wfa
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 3:43pm
I thought they didn't geld horses in England. What happened to this poor fellow, Djebel?
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2018 at 3:46pm
Originally posted by TOLEDO TOLEDO wrote:

Probably closer to 57 actually.    he was 4.5kg under wfa so assume 2.5kg penalty to 2kg under wfa


57kg makes it tough to win
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Nov 2018 at 12:13pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

I thought they didn't geld horses in England. What happened to this poor fellow, Djebel?


They are not as geld happy as our self serving trainers.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Nov 2018 at 12:14pm
Jaameh and Sully both failed to boost their ratings high enough to guarantee a slot in next years Cup.



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mikey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Nov 2018 at 6:37pm
The rise in weight for Cross Counter will be partially offset by the fact that he will be fully grown & developed in another 12 months. His win was extraordinary and you would have to go back to Kiwi in 1983 to find a winner as strong through the line. I think he could well be very competitive again with a weight of 56-57kgs.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Nov 2018 at 6:56pm
In the last twenty years only four horses have carried 56kg or more and won the Melbourne Cup:


1997: Might And Power (56kg)

2005: Makybe Diva (58kg)

2006: Delta Blues (56kg)

2014: Protectionist (56.5kg)


If he gets more then 55.5kg then I won't be backing him. Yes you can all call me harsh and crazy but thats my line of thinking. Not many win the Cup with 56kg or more...it's simply too hard. Some place...which is a good effort...but not many win.


It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Nov 2018 at 7:14pm
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

In the last twenty years only four horses have carried 56kg or more and won the Melbourne Cup:


1997: Might And Power (56kg)

2005: Makybe Diva (58kg)

2006: Delta Blues (56kg)

2014: Protectionist (56.5kg)


If he gets more then 55.5kg then I won't be backing him. Yes you can all call me harsh and crazy but thats my line of thinking. Not many win the Cup with 56kg or more...it's simply too hard. Some place...which is a good effort...but not many win.




It is not a case of simply being too hard.

In that same period how many horses have carried more than 56 kgs.

In 20 years there'd have been close to 240 horses start in the race. 80% would have carried less than 56.



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2018 at 12:06am
I am hearing, that Charlie thinks he is a high grade 2400m horse and that we will not even see him next year.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2018 at 1:51am
Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

I am hearing, that Charlie thinks he is a high grade 2400m horse and that we will not even see him next year.






Maybe the Arc could be on the cards?
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2018 at 2:06am
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

I am hearing, that Charlie thinks he is a high grade 2400m horse and that we will not even see him next year.






Maybe the Arc could be on the cards?


Geldings cannot run in the Arc.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mikey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2018 at 5:54am
2019 Melbourne Cup.

Cross Counter
Rekindling
Latrobe

Could all be there! The race just gets stronger & stronger.

Think we might be seeing the beginnings of a breeding industry for stayers emerging in Australia too. The Fiorente's are getting a mention & Lloyd has kept Rekindling/Johannes Vermeer in Australia who are ready made Stallions. Apparently he is also considering keeping Latrobe in Australia?
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