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2019 Melbourne Cup

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Kingyy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kingyy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 1:25pm
Still hurting from yesterday. I had IL PARADISO going into everything and bloody Vittori spoils the party. Was running straight past them till Frankie's mount lays in all over the top of us.
Horse made up a stack of ground and was very strong through the line.

This horse is going to be something special IMO.
Probably one of the best young stayers going round at the moment.
For only a handful of starts, he's going to be tough to beat in anything he contests!


I thought PRICE of ARRAN was super in defeat as well. I remember watching a few shows lately where people have had big multi's into PoA to either win or run a place in the Melbourne Cup. I had a saver on him too which hurt the bank even more but super prep, trainer clearly knows the horse well.

Decent cup this year.
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Carioca View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 1:43pm
And I might add Kingy, Prince of Arran looked a picture of health in the yard , not that helps mate, so close.
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stayer View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 6:57pm
Frankie forgot to mention the change in hands of his whip. Why do that if a tired horse is going to lay in? It cost Master of R or Il Paradiso the win. Kind of fair enough though the Euro jockeys' comments because they ride more distance races and are more used to that kind of stuff. After watching the replay a few times I think a few horses could have won on the day with different scenarios. Cross Counter's effort was huge after a bad ride and a slow pace. The jock of Surprise Baby said before the race he wanted to be midfield. Il Paradiso might not have been as impressive if ridden up on the pace as expected (or it might have won comfortably if up on the pace - who knows?)... and generally, Master of Reality, Finche and Prince of A were the only realistic chances that followed the hypothetical speed map. Frankie actually read the race perfectly re the slow pace on something that would stick on from an inside draw, but stuffed up at the end, maybe out of arrogance?

Craig Williams had bragging rights for pulling that off on a horse that most wouldn't have expected to be up in the top few from the barrier, but also credit to the horse who kicked on in a high pressure finish. Over all a great result for Oz and a great story but the slow pace and dumb riding by a few will be part of the story when you look back on it.
"She's going through a growth phase." - GW
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jacko1 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacko1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 10:22pm
Yeah the first 6 home could have all won under slightly different scenarios... better barriers, clear runs, etc. The winner was well ridden with the light weight and was lucky with the slow pace and other runners getting held up at crucial points.
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 11:21am
This from Charlie Fellows via Twitter:

Looks like PRINCE OF ARRAN is going to get a new stamp in his passport. His next start will be in the Japan Cup on Sunday 24th November. He has come through the Melbourne Cup perfectly and will fly to Tokyo on Monday. #japancup #princeofarran
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Foxseal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Foxseal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 2:09pm
Disappointing news regarding Prince of Arran. Was hoping he’d make an appearance at Sandown for the Zipping Classic.
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jacko1 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacko1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 2:15pm
Big ask going to the Japan Cup.
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VOYAGER View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 2:34pm
Especially if you take a line through Mer De Glace, in the cup.

The Japanese for analysts, say he is a group 3 stayer and he was less than a length off POA, giving him 2 kilos or more.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 3:02pm
Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

Especially if you take a line through Mer De Glace, in the cup.

The Japanese for analysts, say he is a group 3 stayer and he was less than a length off POA, giving him 2 kilos or more.


He's also a Group 3 stayer in Europe. I wonder why he does so well in Australia...
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Shawy38 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 3:30pm
Surprise surprise.
Do you ever have anything positive to say?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SkyDancer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 3:31pm
Did you know one of the owners once holidayed in Perth?
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 4:45pm
Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

Surprise surprise.
Do you ever have anything positive to say?


Just talking in facts.
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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VOYAGER View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 4:58pm
I think I should clarify my last post.

The form analysts of Japanese racing say Mer De Glace is a group 3 stayer.

So for him to give weight to POA and be beaten less than a length, shows to me that POA against the top level Japanese 2400m horses will struggle.

I do not understand why owners who obviously have horses who race well in Australia, do not leave them here to race.

The horses racing style would suit the Australian Cup fresh, into the Tancred and then if you want go back to Europe or Japan after that.

POA could win $2 million in the autumn if he stayed here!
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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jacko1 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacko1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 6:01pm
Exactly. Goes very well in Aus and struggles elsewhere. Not sure why they insist on all the travel when he seems happiest and most competitive here. 
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Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 6:38pm
Only a simpleton would say MDG is only G3 level in Japan. Dur - the highest level he has won at in Japan is G3, ergo he is a G3 level horse. No, dumdum. Just because G3 is the highest level he has raced at since starting his winning run and improvement does not mean G3 is his limit in Japan. It's not as if he's been failing in G2s.
"Two hundred years ago, 99.999 percent of human idiocy went unrecorded. Now we have the Internet."

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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 6:58pm
Exactly.  He's contested 5 group races and won four of them, with his only failure at that level being as a far younger horse.  He's only a 4yo to NH time and will be very surprised if he doesn't prove hugely competitive in Japanese Group 1 and 2 races should connections aim in that direction before he retires.
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kavg View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2019 at 8:16pm
Rogan Josh was only an open class horse in Perth before his Melbourne campaign.
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 6:26am
So Timeform UK gave a rating of 117 for Vow And Declare's Cup win. It will be interesting to see what rating Timeform Australia give.
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:35am
Would be interesting to see the deductive process that Jamal used to back Vow and Declare

Australian stayers are krapp - first premise
The mystery part for Jamal to writeShocked - second premise
Back Vow and Declare - conclusion
"Two hundred years ago, 99.999 percent of human idiocy went unrecorded. Now we have the Internet."

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kavg View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 9:41am
I don't know what other winners have rated but it surely should be one of the lowest rated Cups. Farcically run and an extremely bunched finish.

I'd rate Craig Williams 130 on Timeform and the rest of the field -13.

Anyway this is what we are likely to keep getting in the years to come when the Irish dominate the race. 7 runners between Aidan and Joseph O Brien and they colluded to give it to one of their runners. Instead of putting genuine pace they sat and made it a 600m sprint home. But that is what happens in most Irish races where they dominate the field. Master of Reality,Latrobe and Twilight Payment all have no reservoir of stamina over 3200m and their only chance was to try and steal it.

Interestingly none of the Coolmore/Aidan runners decided to go forward except Hunting Horn who decided he'd sit 3 wide with no cover and not attack the leading duo. 

Or was it to force anything that wanted to go forward to have to travel 4 wide? Yet jockey of Hunting Horn still complained that the pace was too slow!
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 11:15am
Timeform UK/Timeform Australia: Cup Winners and their rating for Winning the Melbourne Cup - Past 20 Years

2019: Vow And Declare: 117/117

2018: Cross Counter: 124/124

2017: Rekindling: 123/123

2016 Almandin: 119/119

2015: Prince Of Penzance: 117/119

2014: Protectionist: 128/128

2013: Fiorente: 125/125

2012: Green Moon: 124/124

2011: Dunaden: 124/124

2010: Americain: 126/126

2009: Shocking: 117/119

2008: Viewed: 120/120

2007: Efficient: 123

2006: Delta Blues: 125/125

2005: Makybe Diva: 128/128

2004: Makybe Diva: 124/125

2003 Makybe Diva: 114/117

2002: Media Puzzle: 117/117

2001: Ethereal: 119/119

2000: Brew: 111/114

1999: Rogan Josh: 114/114




Edited by Gay3 - 09 Nov 2019 at 8:45pm
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Lord Hybrow View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 1:22pm
Timeform is such a dull way to rate races.

I prefer to rate races on the excitement factor. For me the highest rating Melb Cups of the last decade are V&D and PoP.   The lowest excitement factor were C.Counter & Rekindling.
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 7:51pm
Timeform Ratings - 2019 Melbourne Cup

1st: Vow And Declare: 117

2nd: Prince Of Arran: 115

3rd: Il Paradiso: 122

4th: Master Of Reality: 118

5th: Surprise Baby: 113

6th: Mer De Glace: 118

7th: Finche: 113

8th: Cross Counter: 121

9th: Steel Prince: 110

10th: Magic Wand: 109

11th: Twilight Payment: 112

12th: Sound: 109

13th: Constantinople: 117

14th: Mirage Dancer: 113

15th: Hunting Horn: 111

16th: Raymond Tusk: 109+

17th: The Chosen One: 110

18th: Latrobe: 108

19th: Southern France: 109

20th: Youngstar: 101

21st: Neufbosc: 103

22nd: Downdraft: 102

23rd: Mistajeer: 102

24th: Rostropovoch: No Rating
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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kavg View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:28pm
The high rating for il paradise is another example of how ridiculous timeform ratings are.
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:40pm
In your opinion what rating did Il Paradiso deserve?

Edited by Gay3 - 09 Nov 2019 at 8:46pm
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:56pm
Timeform is an overpriced con
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:56pm
Il Paradiso probably gets an additional 9 or 10 pounds for being a Northern Hemisphere 3yo.

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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 10:08pm
The ratings are from Timeform Australia
It's always good when a WA horse does well in the Eastern States or abroad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 10:39pm
Originally posted by Grey Affair Grey Affair wrote:

Il Paradiso probably gets an additional 9 or 10 pounds for being a Northern Hemisphere 3yo.



I would understand that GA, but for one thing.

He has already been given the advantage by carrying less weight!, That factor should have already been used in the rating of the performance, there should be no need for adjustment in a handicap race.

You can not put up a rating in Timeform, for potential. In this race he was carrying less weight than the older POA, but POA's, form was analysed as being only slightly better than the 3yo's. And do not forget Carpenter is a member of the Timeform group for this region of the world, I hope I have read that correctly.

Either the Timeform rating is on a specific performance or it is not.

Either way I have a very cautious view of Timeform ratings, regardless of where the rating is given.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 10:47pm
Like it or not, that is the reason!

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