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2018 The Everest

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mikey View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mikey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Aug 2018 at 10:36am
Room for Kementari & Nature Strip now.
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Aug 2018 at 10:44am
Kementari, Pierata, Happy Clapper, Invincible Star, plus possibly a baby which can sit on pace and absorb pressure with the light weight.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Aug 2018 at 10:46am
Nature Strip would add great interest to the race with his style. Guaranteed solid pace. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goyougoodthing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Aug 2018 at 3:28pm
Interested in the deals struck between the slot holders and the horse owners. Deals will obviously vary considerably but does anyone have any insight into any agreements?  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Synthetic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Aug 2018 at 11:00am
Not much being divulged, but from various interviews heard to date starting point for a few:

- 50/50 prizemoney
- Either pay a portion of the yearly slot fee going in, or a % of prizemoney before distribution after the result

Mates were involved in an unsuccessful negotiation last year where the slot holder wanted 100% of slot costs covered prior.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goldey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2018 at 12:32pm
I see Invincible Star just snuck home in a trail today, surely a savvy slot holder will pounce.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2018 at 1:02pm
They drive for show but putt for dough. No doubt they are looking to impress slot holders. She's looking good but Waterbott might burn her out before she gets to show her 4yo race skills. LOL
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goldey View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goldey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Aug 2018 at 1:47pm
Certainly do, two racing preps thus far would say has the most scope for natural improvement along with muscle memory, last race start only beaten by MN .Certainly a talent. I'm a huge Redzel fan, bit really like this Horse also
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Aug 2018 at 3:46pm
Kementari might be gone but Le Romain must be on the radar.
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VOYAGER View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Aug 2018 at 3:49pm
I would think so mice, but as Kris said he seems to be underrated.

Any sprinter who can carry 61 kilos and run 1.08.62 is an Everest contender!

He handles any conditions, he can sit box seat or come from off the speed, he loves Randwick and he is not far off trapeze Artist off the TJSmith run.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazyview Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Aug 2018 at 9:02pm
Interesting the handling of Nature Strip.

All noise from the slot holders seems to be that they want to see him at 1200m, but his two preps will both be over 1000m.

A risky strategy, or have they given up? Or do they have the same 1200m doubts?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Aug 2018 at 9:22pm
Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

I would think so mice, but as Kris said he seems to be underrated.

Any sprinter who can carry 61 kilos and run 1.08.62 is an Everest contender!

He handles any conditions, he can sit box seat or come from off the speed, he loves Randwick and he is not far off trapeze Artist off the TJSmith run.

Would beat plenty home at his best imo, including English
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2018 at 8:30am
If Trapeze Artist runs up to his TJ Smith run Le Romain will finish about the same distance from him.Tongue
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2018 at 3:32pm
The thing that needs to be remembered T is that TA will have to carry the 58.5 kgs, so he will be meeting Le Romaine 2 kilos worse and if you look at Trapeze Artist last season, he was well placed because he never once had to carry a penalty. I might be wrong, but my records show he has never carried over 56.5 kilos.

And as Kris Lees said, it took LR a couple of runs to get his fitness up last prep.

This race will be a different prospect, but no doubt TA deserves to be the fav!    
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goldey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2018 at 6:23am
Invincible star is in the mix now, has a slot.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2018 at 1:36pm
Her program hasn't been announced but the Concord has been mentioned as her first up target. Probably kills our bets on her in the Moir? Lucky SB/PP didn't have the balls to take even a small 3 fig bet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2018 at 1:47pm
Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

The thing that needs to be remembered T is that TA will have to carry the 58.5 kgs, so he will be meeting Le Romaine 2 kilos worse and if you look at Trapeze Artist last season, he was well placed because he never once had to carry a penalty. I might be wrong, but my records show he has never carried over 56.5 kilos.

And as Kris Lees said, it took LR a couple of runs to get his fitness up last prep.

This race will be a different prospect, but no doubt TA deserves to be the fav!    
TA won two Open class races as a 3yo Voyager, both at WFA. He has a very strong build, don't think the weight is an issue, only needs to take the expected WFA age improvement to stay at that level. Mind you I thought Le Romain was a tad unlucky in the All Aged. He's a tough campaigner who might not be brilliant enough for 1200 at this point but he wouldn't disappoint in the run home imo.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2018 at 9:08pm
This is the thing with weights but mice.

When you have been running in set weight and penalty events as a 2 or 3yo, you are not carrying anything over 56.5kilos, obviously unless you get the full penalty, like Sunlight did on the weekend.

We saw in the Memsie last week that the 3yo's ,who are now 4yo's, who had not carried the bigger weights, could not win at their first wfa start, yet a horse who had carried 57 kilos on many occasions (admittedly at set weights) and 60 kilos in another race, was able to carry the weight and win.

Holy Snow had carried 59 in the Packer Plate and 57.5 kilos a couple of times, so even though his 3yo form was probably a little below Grunt and Mighty Boss, he finished alongside Grunt and beat Mighty Boss home.

Trapeze Artist is not the only four year old in the Everest with this problem. Shoals is maybe even worse off, and Invincible Star, on her performances, is the worst weighted horse in the field, so far.

If Trapeze Artist has had two runs and shown he can develop from the 3yo to 4yo weight scale (that is one of the main reasons 3yo's can not transfer to 4yo top level), then he will win the race.   
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Miami View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Miami Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2018 at 9:16pm
The reason 3yos flop at 4 is because they were not good enough in open class. The 2 kg rise is an excuse in a lot of cases.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2018 at 9:22pm
I think weight is the last issue when working out why a horse fails.



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2018 at 11:24pm
Quality is what defines WFA horses in my book, not weight carrying ability.I have a different take on the PB Lawrence and none of it relates to weights previously carried.  Showtime had shown he was up to WFA previously by running well in two G1 races as a 3yo. He was in a race with little obvious early pace, and had had a warm up run in Sydney where he was asked for little except run home from the back. He was turned out brilliantly on Sat. The Hawkes' don't mind taking early plums, esp with horses they know aren't very top liners. 

The 3 Price horses were all resuming. Grunt wasn't ready - he has much bigger targets over further and is a real Flemington horse according to MP. Holy Snow is probably not up to WFA at this point and Mighty Boss is a horse which doesn't like to be bustled according to his jockeys. I'll be surprised if Grunt in particular isn't prominent in some big races this spring based on Price's thoughts. He's not one to get carried away.

If Showtime can win a G2 at WFA as a 4yo I don't see why Trapeze Artist can't do at least as well as long as he comes back as good as he was in the autumn. Plenty think he will be even better. Racing's about opinions though and it's good to see them do it without the age weight concession.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kamikaze Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2018 at 11:43am
Thoughts on one of the new season 3YO's getting a slot? 

Obviously two left. Would have thought one of the Golden Rose contenders may be of interest as an x-factor? A few trialing tomorrow with the grey flash. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2018 at 12:58pm
One could be forgiven for thinking you have all forgotten that he had to carry a four year old's weight in his win at Royal Ascot.  So in reality he's already proven he can beat a top field carrying that sort of weight.  Now we just have to see if he can step it up again against open class Australian sprinters.  But without Chautauqua we have Redzel who himself had a bit of a hicup at the end of last season.  Same with In her Time.  Shoals is herself stepping out as a four year old.  English, Brave Smash, Vega Magic have been there and lost to Redzel.  There are too many variables to worry about.  Have any of the horses in the field so far even come out and run this season yet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2018 at 1:40pm
Originally posted by kamikaze kamikaze wrote:

Thoughts on one of the new season 3YO's getting a slot? 

Obviously two left. Would have thought one of the Golden Rose contenders may be of interest as an x-factor? A few trialing tomorrow with the grey flash. 
The ATC interview about a month ago suggested that slot owners learnt last year that you need a seasoned sprinter capable of running a strong 1200m and with a proven high rating. Only an outstanding early 3yo will ever fit that bill, although I guess it depends on the strength of the older brigade in any year. Those most likely are (still) Chautauqua, Le Romain, Pierata, Kementari, Nature Strip. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2018 at 1:43pm
Good point about Merchant Navy Furious but he has retired to stud. Coolmore's rep is the other navy horse,  US Navy Flag.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2018 at 2:53pm
Originally posted by Miami Miami wrote:

The reason 3yos flop at 4 is because they were not good enough in open class. The 2 kg rise is an excuse in a lot of cases.


3yos who win at wfa at 3 but can't win at wfa at 4 is not a concept I am familiar with. She Will Reign is the only one I can think of atm. 3yos who can't win at wfa is what I'm more familiar with. I can think of loads.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2018 at 2:55pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by Miami Miami wrote:

The reason 3yos flop at 4 is because they were not good enough in open class. The 2 kg rise is an excuse in a lot of cases.


3yos who win at wfa at 3 but can't win at wfa at 4 is not a concept I am familiar with. She Will Reign is the only one I can think of atm. 3yos who can't win at wfa is what I'm more familiar with. I can think of loads.


Correction- I can't think of any.Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2018 at 4:00pm
Sorry wrong horse.  Why did I think it was Merchant Navy not Trapeze Artist.  They have both been on my radar as they both decend from mares I picked at the sales so I've managed to muddle them!  Sorry guys.  I have two picks from the sales running now that Invincible Star has joined In Her TIme.  That's two years running.  Hope they can run better than the two from last years field.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kamikaze Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Aug 2018 at 3:38pm
interesting Whitby is considering a 3yo for the race: https://www.racenet.com.au/news/the-everest---two-surprise-candidates-emerge-20180830 ;
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Sep 2018 at 5:58pm
Typically professional performance from Redzel. Vega Magic okay trial for 1200. Ditto Brave Smash and Santa Ana Lane. They’ve done their dough on Invicible Star. Kementari short in the market, will they go here?

Loved Shoals’ trial.


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