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2018 Melbourne Cup 3200m Group 1

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djebel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 5:07pm
Originally posted by Long Row Long Row wrote:

Anyone word on which horses the O'Briens are bringing out?

There's some juicy odds around, however if I back all 10 to 15 of them it kind of defeats the purpose. LOL


Leave his horses alone until that are in the air.

If the plane is still on the ground hold fire.




STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

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The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rugby0 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 6:01pm
Any thoughts on Ace High. Looks an out and out stayer building up to this.
Jezabeel was my greatest horse.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 6:14pm
Well there's certainly no way you could rule him out at this point.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Sep 2018 at 8:03pm
His two runs at 2400+ have been a top win at Flemington at 2500m and I bashem up drag them out war at 2400m at Randwick.

Scared after his first run this prep, but he is a dead set 2400m+ horse so he will get out in price closer to the race as the overseas horses arrive.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Sep 2018 at 7:25pm
Two of Willie Mullins Melb Cup candidates go around tonight in the Doncaster Cup over 3600m - MAX DYNAMITE & THOMAS HOBSON.

They were 3rd & 6th respectively in the 2017 Melb Cup.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brudder_A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 5:52am
A much improved run by Max Dynamite to run 2nd in the G2 Doncaster Cup.

"Held up mid-division, headway over 3f out, led over 2f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on towards finish op"

but he was no match for Thomas Hobson (2/1 fav) who won the race by 1/2 length.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brudder_A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 5:58am
Final stages of the G2 Doncaster Cup in this article with video from AtTheRaces

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Red Rancher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 10:15am
I just had a sizeable bet on Thomas Hobson at $81 (enhanced from $67) with Sportsbet. English bookies have just cut his price to 20/1 following the win so he's currently way over the odds.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 10:42am
Good luck with that bet RR. But with only 52kgs, Thomas Hobson is currently 71st in the order of entry, so he’ll need a massive fallout to even make the field this year.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Red Rancher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 10:55am
Surely TB will receive a weight penalty for winning a good UK Group 2 staying race?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 11:52am
Originally posted by Red Rancher Red Rancher wrote:

Surely TB will receive a weight penalty for winning a good UK Group 2 staying race?

Not sure about that one? Was last nights race a WFA event? I didn’t think you could get penalties from winning WFA races. I guess we’ll find out next week if the handicapper does or not.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Red Rancher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 12:23pm

Weight penalties[edit]

After the declaration of weights for the Melbourne Cup, the winner of any handicap flat race of the advertised value of A$55,000 or over to the winner, or an internationally recognised Listed, Group, or Graded handicap flat race, shall carry such additional weight (if any), for each win, as the VRC Handicapper shall determine.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FFB1975 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 9:31am
Thomas Hobson needs a miracle to make the field, odds of him making it are probably greater than what you’ve backed him to win the cup, sorry to say.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 9:31am
Aiden & Joseph O’Brien had a few Cups contenders run well last night

KEW GARDENS (3rd in order of entry) - won the G1 English St Leger 2900m. But it sounds like he might go to the Arc De Triomphe in France rather the come to Aust. He’s had a pretty busy campaign so unlikely to do both races.

ROSTROPOVICH (19th) - won the G3 Kilternan Stks 2400m at Leopardstown. He’d previously been runner up in the Irish Derby. Given he’s essentially guaranteed a run he may well be on the plane load down here.

GIUSEPPE GARIBALDI (75th) - was a narrow 2nd in the Rostropovich race. Nice effort but borderline at best to get a start unless he won a lead up race, which Ballydoyle never seem to do.

A few flops as well, including NELSON (81st), MASTER OF REALITY (153rd) & TGPENTAGON (175th), so definitely rule them out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FFB1975 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 9:34am
Think the UK bookies have him way under the odds rather than our bookies havin him way over. I’m worried about Hamada making it and he’s well above TH in the OOE. Probs your only hope is if Carpenter used his discretion and gives him a decent penalty but was win that good?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 9:45am
I think something else that the connections of these UK/Irish horses have to consider is that the Champions Long Distance Cup 3200m at Ascot next month is there for the taking this year.

Most of the best marathon stayers are currently out of contention for this feature race, with STRADIVARIUS (spelling), TORCEDOR (sold to Aust) & ORDER OF ST GEORGE (retired) all missing. Why come all the way to Australia when there’s a very winnable race at home.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ted Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 7:39pm
Originally posted by Red Rancher Red Rancher wrote:

Surely TB will receive a weight penalty for winning a good UK Group 2 staying race?


1kg penalty for Thomas Hobson taking him to 54th in the order of entry.

Kew Gardens also got 1kg taking him to top of the order, and Flag of Honour 1.5kg penalty taking him from 25th to 7th.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Sep 2018 at 12:41pm

Aussie dilemma: Roger Charlton faces Melbourne quandary with Withhold

Wed 19 Sep 2018

Roger Charlton may have to alter his original plan not to run Withhold before the Lexus Melbourne Cup.

The classy stayer has won the Cesarewitch and the Northumberland Plate on his last two outings, two of the richest handicaps of their type in Europe, and is favourite with some firms for the Flemington showpiece.

However, the Tony Bloom-owned five-year-old is still way down the list of acceptors, in a race in which only 24 can go to post.

 Withhold is struggling to get into the Melbourne Cup. (FocusOnRacing)Withhold is struggling to get into the Melbourne Cup. (FocusOnRacing)

“No decision has been made what to do yet. He is in quarantine and is due to fly to Australia next Thursday, I believe,” said Charlton.

“I think it’s going to be tough to get into the Melbourne Cup. Some above us might not run and some might not travel, so things can change.

“We’ve been encouraged all the way along that we would get into the race, but it has been so popular it has made it a tough race to get into.

“It would be disappointing if we didn’t get into the race having been encouraged all along.

“The only way of getting more weight is by winning another race out there. On the prize-money front, he is top of his bracket.

“One of the races will be too tight with quarantine, but there is the Geelong Cup. However, I’m not sure about that and that is not necessarily the plan.”



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TOLEDO Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Sep 2018 at 1:44pm
I really hope this horses makes it into the field, I'm already planning to bet around it
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 9:51am
Torcedo has his first run for wohler tonight at cologne. Jamie Spencer to ride.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Sep 2018 at 7:20am
Originally posted by SHOVHOG SHOVHOG wrote:

Torcedor has his first run for wohler tonight at cologne. Jamie Spencer to ride.


Finished last of 7 runners in Germany beaten 24.5 lens as an odds on fave.

Hopefully thats another Euro we can eliminate & he’s doesn’t come to Australia for the Cup. The fewer the better.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Sep 2018 at 9:18am
It was an atrocious race run under atrocious conditions.

Conditions were that bad it was started by a flag start nowhere near the 2400m distance.

It was amateurish


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

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The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Sep 2018 at 9:25am
Why was he $1.80 ??

The trainer said he had no hope of winning and would be happy if he got within 7 lengths.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tillyras Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Sep 2018 at 11:25am
Torcedor not coming. High temp, unable to fly
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Sep 2018 at 3:55pm
Does anyone know if Kew Gardens will be running in the Melbourne Cup?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Sep 2018 at 4:27pm
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Does anyone know if Kew Gardens will be running in the Melbourne Cup?

No it doesn’t appear that either of Aiden’s 2 leading chances are coming with Kew Gardens & Flag of Honour ruled out.

In other good news it looks like Willie Mullins pair of Max Dynamite & Thomas Hobson aren’t making the trip either. Latrobe for Joseph O’Brien looks unlikely starter too.

So opening up opportunities for more locally trained horses to start
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tillyras Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Sep 2018 at 4:59pm
In case you haven’t already you can cross out Tiberian from your calculations, he isn’t coming back. Not in good enough form to spend $100k bringing him here
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Sep 2018 at 9:50pm
Torcedor has been ruled out of Melbourne Cup due to spiked temperature.

Max Dynamite, Thomas Hobson and Flag Of Honour will not travel either.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Oct 2018 at 11:57am
Does anyone have any footage of Withholds wins? I cant find it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kingy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Oct 2018 at 7:17pm
Horses I like this far out are Few Gardens, Cross Counter, Muntahaa, Hamada, Sound Check (especially if it's wet), Flag of Honour and Rostropovich. 

Of the locals, it would be great to see WSTB finally win one. Youngstar looks progressive and if there's some rain about I really like her.. and I rekon Bring Me Roses will make a half decent stayer, maybe next year or the year after but definitely capable.
2018 SHEEZDASHING, THE AUTUMN SUN, VIDDORA, SHOALS, NATIVE SOLDIER, OOHOOD, WITHHOLD, HAMADA, POET'S WORLD, SANTA ANA LANE, ECKSTEIN, EL DORADO DREAMING, TAVISAN, YOUNGSTAR, WRITTEN BY and ELLICAZOOM.
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