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2018 Kentucky Derby |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Posted: 02 May 2018 at 1:43pm |
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
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Aidan O’Brien chases Kentucky-English Guineas doubleRacing long ago ran out of superlatives for trainer Aidan O’Brien, so what can be said of the Irish wizard should he score an unprecedented international double of the Kentucky Derby-English 2000 Guineas classic next weekend? No European-trained three-year-old has won the Group I Kentucky Derby, which will be run for the 144th time over 2000m on the main dirt track of Churchill Downs racecourse in Louisville, Kentucky, on Saturday. But in the versatile colt Mendelssohn, O’Brien may well have the joker in the pack of 20 runners. Some six hours after the Kentucky extravaganza that is promoted as America’s greatest two minutes of sport has been decided, and across the Atlantic at historic Newmarket racecourse in England, O’Brien will bid to have his name on the 2000 Guineas roll of honour for a ninth time. From a breeding standpoint, the Kentucky Derby-2000 Guineas double was achieved in 2006 by US residents Roy and Gretchen Jackson, who bred and raced the Derby winner Barbaro and bred and sold the 2000 Guineas winner George Washington (the latest of O’Brien’s eight winners). O’Brien has a platoon of nominations for the 2000 Guineas, but the task will be handed to two principals, the Galileo colt Gustav Klimt, a firm favourite for this classic, and the Deep Impact colt Saxon Warrior, who is one of three equal-second-favourites for Saturday and who heads the markets for the Group I English Derby in June. Since being appointed in 1996 as private trainer for Coolmore Stud’s racing operation, O’Brien has set the record books for world flat racing on fire — his achievements placing him furlongs ahead of the field. Just one statistic is required to flag O’Brien’s influence — he has won 299 Group I races around the world: 94 in his native Ireland, 131 in England, 42 in France, 23 in the US, three in Italy, two in Canada and Hong Kong and one each in the United Arab Emirates and Australia (Adelaide in the 2014 Cox Plate). Mendelssohn already figures on O’Brien’s dizzy tally of Group I winners, having travelled from his Ireland base in November to the US where he won the $US1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. But it was Mendelssohn’s staggering performance in the Group II $US2m UAE Derby at Dubai’s World Cup meeting in late March that earned the colt a ticket to Churchill Downs — and as the first in line to bid for O’Brien’s 300th Group I triumph. Already a winner on grass and on a synthetic surface in Ireland, Mendelssohn took to Meydan’s dirt track as a natural, freewheeling in front early in the 1900m set-weight UAE Derby then rolling on to win by 18½ lengths in track record time. Mendelssohn was born to run on dirt, bred as he was in Kentucky on May 17, 2015, which has him still a two-year-old by actual birthdate. He went to the Keeneland sale ring in September 2016, where he was bought by Coolmore as the $US3m sale’s topper and the year’s most expensive yearling anywhere. Mendelssohn is by the short-lived stud phenomenon Scat Daddy, a great grandson of multiple US leading sire Storm Cat. The horse’s mother Leslie’s Lady, an honest runner in restricted company, is from a workmanlike family of regular winners. But she herself has lifted the family profile substantially as the dam of multi-award-winning mare Beholder, the highly commercial stallion Into Mischief and now the prime Kentucky Derby candidate Mendelssohn. Leslie’s Lady, who is now aged 22, gave birth on April 25 to a filly by the celebrated 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who will be shuttling to Coolmore’s NSW Hunter Valley property for the second time this spring. She also has a yearling colt scheduled for the Keeneland sale ring in September — this one by Darley Stud’s Medaglia d’Oro, who is a scratching from this year’s shuttle after eight consecutive seasons in the Hunter Valley. Fourth in War Emblem’s 2002 Kentucky Derby, Medaglia d’Oro has Bolt d’Oro, a one-time favourite, and the Godolphin colt Enticed, poised to run on Saturday. A dual Group I winner at two years, Bolt d’Oro was runner-up in the recent Group I Santa Anita Derby while Enticed has performed well in two traditional Derby lead-ups, winning the Group III Gotham Stakes followed by a second in the Group II Wood Memorial. A $US630,000 yearling and named for Olympic sprint champion Usain Bolt, Bolt d’Oro is owned by his hobby trainer Mick Ruis, a remarkable individual who worked from the basement to develop a scaffolding business, 80 per cent of which he sold in 2016 for $US78m. International big spender the China Horse Club and Kentucky’s Winstar Farm are involved in the ownership of two leading Derby candidates, the unbeaten Santa Anita Derby winner Justify and the Group I Florida Derby winner Audible — from the big league stables of Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher, respectively. Audible, a $US500,000 breeze-up sale buy as an unraced two-year-old, is by Mendelssohn’s half-brother Into Mischief, while Justify is another top notch performer by Scat Daddy and who fetched $US500,000 at the same sale where Mendelssohn was bought. Justify is the ruling Kentucky Derby favourite after three unbeaten starts, stepping into stakes company for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby where he was hugely impressive in front and drawing away by three lengths at the finish. A vital question asked of Justify is that not having competed against more than six rivals in his three outings, how will he fare with the hustle and bustle of a 20-strong Derby field for which several hopefuls have shown to be natural frontrunners? And another question is how will he address the bogey that has played out since Apollo in 1882 — the last Derby winner not to have raced as a two-year-old? That bogey not only applies this time to Justify but also to Magnum Moon, which made the Group I Arkansas Derby his fourth unbeaten start since a January debut. By Malibu Moon, sire of 2013 Derby winner Orb, Magnum Moon is another from the Pletcher stable. The Apollo bogey found out Curlin, third in the 2007 Derby, before he won almost everything in his path to eventually retire as the first $US10m stakes winner in US racing. By premier sire Smart Strike, Curlin has three representatives heading for Churchill Downs — the recent Group II Blue Grass Stakes winner Good Magic, Group II Wood Memorial winner Vin Rosso and the Arkansas Derby third Solomini, who runs for the American Pharoah team of owner Zayat Stables and trainer Baffert. Australia had a strong Kentucky Derby interest up until early last week with the British-trained Gronkowski, a US-bred son of Darley Stud’s champion sire Lonhro, who shuttled for two seasons to Kentucky. Having qualified for the Kentucky Derby by winning a trial race on a synthetic surface in England, Gronkowski was withdrawn after being treated with antibiotics for a temperature spike — which ruled him out of travelling the Atlantic. Like Mendelssohn, a winner on grass, dirt and synthetic tracks, Gronkowski may still visit the US with connections planning a crack at the Group I Belmont Stakes, third leg of the US triple crown, in New York in June. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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horseshoe
Champion Joined: 10 Dec 2008 Location: Tess' Paddock Status: Offline Points: 4526 |
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Justify with Mike Smith aboard will go very close
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Those who know don't tell, Those who tell don't know
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21830 |
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Tony Arrold?
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21830 |
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Justify, hasn't competed against more than six rivals in 3 starts, hope he likes company.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45811 |
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Wonder what BrudderA thinks?
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Correct.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Brudder_A
Champion Joined: 01 Apr 2013 Location: Uzhhorod Status: Offline Points: 4262 |
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The field was set yesterday and Justify was drawn into barrier 7 - Which is quite good. However he has a major hoodoo to overcome statistically. No horse since Apollo won in 1882 has won not running as a 2YO. Hence Justify could be the next Arrogate (who also did not participate in TCrown races as a sophmore). Baffert always seems to get a horse that flirts with immediate stardom so it doesn't surprise that a lightly raced horse could produce.
IMO Mendelssohn would really give the Coolmore folks a landmark victory if he were to produce his record breaking win in the UAE Derby. He has drawn 14. And as always some horse outperforms his odds and there are a couple who I like. Lightly raced Hofburg is one and Free Drop Billy on the rails could also come into play. A deep field for this first Classic in the US. Looking forward to this event! |
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djebel
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From the family that bought us Northern Dancer and Danehill.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Dillwar
Yearling Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 211 |
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Got a double going, Kementari to win Randwick Guineas at 5.0 into Justify to win the derby at 29.0
Barrier 7 is perfect. Give it strength!!! |
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Brudder_A
Champion Joined: 01 Apr 2013 Location: Uzhhorod Status: Offline Points: 4262 |
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Sire Scat Daddy has 4 entries in the event - Favourite Justify, Mendelssohn, Flameaway and Combatant.
The last sire with four Derby starters competing against one another was the imported French stallion Chicle in 1923 when 21 horses left the starting gate, making it the largest Derby field to that point in the race's history. Representing Chicle were the gelding Enchantment, Rialto, Picketer, and another gelded son, Cherry Pie. They finished sixth, seventh, 15th, and 20th, respectively. Chicle, who was notoriously ill-tempered according to Abigail Anderson's "The Vault: Horse Racing Past and Present," is the sire of Mother Goose, who beat colts in the 1924 Belmont Futurity on her way to winning 2-year-old filly championship honors. Mother Goose is the fourth dam of influential stallion Northern Dancer. Chicle went on to have more Derby starters—one each in 1928, 1929, and 1935—but Enchantment's sixth-place finish would be the best Derby finish by the sire's progeny. |
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Shammy Davis
Champion Joined: 14 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 8601 |
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It is time for Chad Brown. #6 Good Magic.
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Good Magic will win the Kentucky Derby
Havent bothered shopping around, I took the $12 yesterday Has a very good cruising speed. At the 600, still under a tight hold, others off the bit and struggling Gets to the hometurn with a lap full of horse and the power to go on with it. really extends stride. Cruising speed plus extended stride and stamina. Very good value in my opinion
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Barossa Boy
Champion Joined: 10 Jul 2011 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 338 |
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Kentucky Derby 2018
Full Horse by Horse preview, picks and analysis here: http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1 Best of luck in the run for the roses! 🌹 BB x http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1 |
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BB
Another Jim & Tonic please |
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Barossa Boy
Champion Joined: 10 Jul 2011 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 338 |
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Let’s try again
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BB
Another Jim & Tonic please |
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Barossa Boy
Champion Joined: 10 Jul 2011 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 338 |
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BB
Another Jim & Tonic please |
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Barossa Boy
Champion Joined: 10 Jul 2011 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 338 |
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http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1Kentucky Derby Preview
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BB
Another Jim & Tonic please |
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Shammy Davis
Champion Joined: 14 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 8601 |
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Shammy Davis
Champion Joined: 14 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 8601 |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79532 |
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Barossa Boy
Champion Joined: 10 Jul 2011 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 338 |
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Thanks Shammy! Appreciate that. I have no idea what I’m doing...
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BB
Another Jim & Tonic please |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79532 |
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horseshoe
Champion Joined: 10 Dec 2008 Location: Tess' Paddock Status: Offline Points: 4526 |
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Those who know don't tell, Those who tell don't know
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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How scary did that race look under those conditions ?
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reductio ad absurdum
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 52012 |
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What was scary about it?
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Red Rancher
Champion Joined: 28 Oct 2009 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 747 |
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What a slop fest. Don't understand why they prefer dirt racing when they have a lovely turf track on the inside.
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djebel
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LOOKED slippery. Obviously it wasn't but it looked it. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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What drugs are their horses on?
The leaders went so hard, bog track, and they still kick clear into the straight. they thrashed the field. |
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djebel
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They ran 2 minutes 4 for the 2000m I am not sure they went that hard or finished that fast ?
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reductio ad absurdum
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 30 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41536 |
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Bet it was fun there in that crowd and weather. They said the track was the worst its been in something like 100 years ? ( Cant recall exactly, but a long time ). It must have been bad as when we were there in 2013 it was an absolute slop. 156 thousand people all looking for cover between races , and the track was just like slime up over their feet as they passed on the way to the start. I wonder what the surface is, below all that slop ?
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animals before people.
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