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2018 Kentucky Derby

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    Posted: 02 May 2018 at 1:43pm


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 6:46pm

Aidan O’Brien chases Kentucky-English Guineas double


Racing long ago ran out of superlatives for trainer Aidan O’Brien, so what can be said of the Irish wizard should he score an unprecedented international double of the Kentucky Derby-English 2000 Guineas classic next weekend?

No European-trained three-year-old has won the Group I Kentucky Derby, which will be run for the 144th time over 2000m on the main dirt track of Churchill Downs racecourse in Louisville, Kentucky, on Saturday.

But in the versatile colt Mendelssohn, O’Brien may well have the joker in the pack of 20 runners.

Some six hours after the Kentucky extravaganza that is promoted as America’s greatest two minutes of sport has been decided, and across the Atlantic at historic Newmarket racecourse in England, O’Brien will bid to have his name on the 2000 Guineas roll of honour for a ninth time.

From a breeding standpoint, the Kentucky Derby-2000 Guineas double was achieved in 2006 by US residents Roy and Gretchen Jackson, who bred and raced the Derby winner Barbaro and bred and sold the 2000 Guineas winner George Washington (the latest of O’Brien’s eight winners).

O’Brien has a platoon of nominations for the 2000 Guineas, but the task will be handed to two principals, the Galileo colt Gustav Klimt, a firm favourite for this classic, and the Deep Impact colt Saxon Warrior, who is one of three equal-second-favourites for Saturday and who heads the markets for the Group I English Derby in June.

Since being appointed in 1996 as private trainer for Coolmore Stud’s racing operation, O’Brien has set the record books for world flat racing on fire — his achievements placing him furlongs ahead of the field.

Just one statistic is required to flag O’Brien’s influence — he has won 299 Group I races around the world: 94 in his native Ireland, 131 in England, 42 in France, 23 in the US, three in Italy, two in Canada and Hong Kong and one each in the United Arab Emirates and Australia (Adelaide in the 2014 Cox Plate).

Mendelssohn already figures on O’Brien’s dizzy tally of Group I winners, having travelled from his Ireland base in November to the US where he won the $US1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

But it was Mendelssohn’s staggering performance in the Group II $US2m UAE Derby at Dubai’s World Cup meeting in late March that earned the colt a ticket to Churchill Downs — and as the first in line to bid for O’Brien’s 300th Group I triumph.

Already a winner on grass and on a synthetic surface in Ireland, Mendelssohn took to Meydan’s dirt track as a natural, freewheeling in front early in the 1900m set-weight UAE Derby then rolling on to win by 18½ lengths in track record time.

Mendelssohn was born to run on dirt, bred as he was in Kentucky on May 17, 2015, which has him still a two-year-old by actual birthdate. He went to the Keeneland sale ring in September 2016, where he was bought by Coolmore as the $US3m sale’s topper and the year’s most expensive yearling anywhere.

Mendelssohn is by the short-lived stud phenomenon Scat Daddy, a great grandson of multiple US leading sire Storm Cat.

The horse’s mother Leslie’s Lady, an honest runner in restricted company, is from a workmanlike family of regular winners. But she herself has lifted the family profile substantially as the dam of multi-award-winning mare Beholder, the highly commercial stallion Into Mischief and now the prime Kentucky Derby candidate Mendelssohn.

Leslie’s Lady, who is now aged 22, gave birth on April 25 to a filly by the celebrated 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who will be shuttling to Coolmore’s NSW Hunter Valley property for the second time this spring.

She also has a yearling colt scheduled for the Keeneland sale ring in September — this one by Darley Stud’s Medaglia d’Oro, who is a scratching from this year’s shuttle after eight consecutive seasons in the Hunter Valley.

Fourth in War Emblem’s 2002 Kentucky Derby, Medaglia d’Oro has Bolt d’Oro, a one-time favourite, and the Godolphin colt Enticed, poised to run on Saturday.

A dual Group I winner at two years, Bolt d’Oro was runner-up in the recent Group I Santa Anita Derby while Enticed has performed well in two traditional Derby lead-ups, winning the Group III Gotham Stakes followed by a second in the Group II Wood Memorial.

A $US630,000 yearling and named for Olympic sprint champion Usain Bolt, Bolt d’Oro is owned by his hobby trainer Mick Ruis, a remarkable individual who worked from the basement to develop a scaffolding business, 80 per cent of which he sold in 2016 for $US78m.

International big spender the China Horse Club and Kentucky’s Winstar Farm are involved in the ownership of two leading Derby candidates, the unbeaten Santa Anita Derby winner Justify and the Group I Florida Derby winner Audible — from the big league stables of Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher, respectively.

Audible, a $US500,000 breeze-up sale buy as an unraced two-year-old, is by Mendelssohn’s half-brother Into Mischief, while Justify is another top notch performer by Scat Daddy and who fetched $US500,000 at the same sale where Mendelssohn was bought.

Justify is the ruling Kentucky Derby favourite after three unbeaten starts, stepping into stakes company for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby where he was hugely impressive in front and drawing away by three lengths at the finish.

A vital question asked of Justify is that not having competed against more than six rivals in his three outings, how will he fare with the hustle and bustle of a 20-strong Derby field for which several hopefuls have shown to be natural frontrunners?

And another question is how will he address the bogey that has played out since Apollo in 1882 — the last Derby winner not to have raced as a two-year-old?

That bogey not only applies this time to Justify but also to Magnum Moon, which made the Group I Arkansas Derby his fourth unbeaten start since a January debut.

By Malibu Moon, sire of 2013 Derby winner Orb, Magnum Moon is another from the Pletcher stable.

The Apollo bogey found out Curlin, third in the 2007 Derby, before he won almost everything in his path to eventually retire as the first $US10m stakes winner in US racing.

By premier sire Smart Strike, Curlin has three representatives heading for Churchill Downs — the recent Group II Blue Grass Stakes winner Good Magic, Group II Wood Memorial winner Vin Rosso and the Arkansas Derby third Solomini, who runs for the American Pharoah team of owner Zayat Stables and trainer Baffert.

Australia had a strong Kentucky Derby interest up until early last week with the British-trained Gronkowski, a US-bred son of Darley Stud’s champion sire Lonhro, who shuttled for two seasons to Kentucky.

Having qualified for the Kentucky Derby by winning a trial race on a synthetic surface in ­England, Gronkowski was withdrawn after being treated with antibiotics for a temperature spike — which ruled him out of travelling the Atlantic.

Like Mendelssohn, a winner on grass, dirt and synthetic tracks, Gronkowski may still visit the US with connections planning a crack at the Group I Belmont Stakes, third leg of the US triple crown, in New York in June.



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horseshoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 7:02pm
Justify with Mike Smith aboard will go very close
Those who know don't tell, Those who tell don't know
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 7:10pm
Tony Arrold?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 7:14pm
Justify, hasn't competed against more than six rivals in 3 starts, hope he likes company.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 7:16pm
Wonder what BrudderA thinks?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 7:25pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Tony Arrold?

Correct.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Brudder_A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 7:32pm
The field was set yesterday and Justify was drawn into barrier 7 - Which is quite good. However he has a major hoodoo to overcome statistically. No horse since Apollo won in 1882 has won not running as a 2YO. Hence Justify could be the next Arrogate (who also did not participate in TCrown races as a sophmore). Baffert always seems to get a horse that flirts with immediate stardom so it doesn't surprise that a lightly raced horse could produce.

IMO Mendelssohn would really give the Coolmore folks a landmark victory if he were to produce his record breaking win in the UAE Derby. He has drawn 14.

And as always some horse outperforms his odds and there are a couple who I like. Lightly raced Hofburg is one and Free Drop Billy on the rails could also come into play.

A deep field for this first Classic in the US.

Looking forward to this event!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 7:35pm
From the family that bought us Northern Dancer and Danehill.

HOFBURG (USA)Chestnut colt 2015 
Tapit
Grey 2001
Pulpit
Bay 1994
A P Indy
Bay or brown 1989
Seattle Slew
Bay or brown 1974
Bold Reasoning
My Charmer
1968
1969
1-k
13-c
Weekend Surprise
Bay 1980
Secretariat
Lassie Dear
1970
1974
2-s
3-l
Preach
Bay 1989
Mr Prospector
Bay 1970
Raise a Native
Gold Digger
1961
1962
8-f
13-c
Narrate
Bay or brown 1980
Honest Pleasure
State
1973
1974
11-f
2-f
Tap Your Heels
Grey 1996
Unbridled
Bay 1987
Fappiano
Bay 1977
Mr Prospector
Killaloe
1970
1970
13-c
16-a
Gana Facil
Chestnut 1981
Le Fabuleux
Charedi
1961
1976
13-c
1-r
Ruby Slippers
Grey 1982
Nijinsky
Bay 1967
Northern Dancer
Flaming Page
1961
1959
2-d
8-f
Moon Glitter
Grey 1972
In Reality
Foggy Note
1964
1965
21-a
3-o
Soothing Touch
Bay 2004
Touch Gold
Bay 1994
Deputy Minister
Bay or brown 1979
Vice Regent
Chestnut 1967
Northern Dancer
Victoria Regina
1961
1958
2-d
10-c
Mint Copy
Bay or brown 1970
Bunty's Flight
Shakney
1953
1964
19-b
10-a
Passing Mood
Chestnut 1978
Buckpasser
Bay 1963
Tom Fool
Busanda
1949
1947
3-j
1-s
Cool Mood
Chestnut 1966
Northern Dancer
Happy Mood
1961
1951
2-d
2-n
Glia
Bay 1999
A P Indy
Bay or brown 1989
Seattle Slew
Bay or brown 1974
Bold Reasoning
My Charmer
1968
1969
1-k
13-c
Weekend Surprise
Bay 1980
Secretariat
Lassie Dear
1970
1974
2-s
3-l
Coup de Genie
Bay 1991
Mr Prospector
Bay 1970
Raise a Native
Gold Digger
1961
1962
8-f
13-c
Coup de Folie
Bay 1982
Halo
Raise the Standard
1969
1978
2-d
2-d
 Ancestor duplications:A P Indy3m x 3f Mr Prospector4f,5m x 4f Northern Dancer5m x 5m,5f


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dillwar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2018 at 9:13pm
Got a double going, Kementari to win Randwick Guineas at 5.0 into Justify to win the derby at 29.0

Barrier 7 is perfect.

Give it strength!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brudder_A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2018 at 9:35pm
Sire Scat Daddy has 4 entries in the event - Favourite Justify, Mendelssohn, Flameaway and Combatant.


The last sire with four Derby starters competing against one another was the imported French stallion Chicle in 1923 when 21 horses left the starting gate, making it the largest Derby field to that point in the race's history. Representing Chicle were the gelding Enchantment, Rialto, Picketer, and another gelded son, Cherry Pie. They finished sixth, seventh, 15th, and 20th, respectively.

Chicle
, who was notoriously ill-tempered according to Abigail Anderson's "The Vault: Horse Racing Past and Present," is the sire of Mother Goose, who beat colts in the 1924 Belmont Futurity on her way to winning 2-year-old filly championship honors. Mother Goose is the fourth dam of influential stallion Northern Dancer. Chicle went on to have more Derby starters—one each in 1928, 1929, and 1935—but Enchantment's sixth-place finish would be the best Derby finish by the sire's progeny.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 May 2018 at 9:20am
It is time for Chad Brown. #6 Good Magic.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 May 2018 at 9:26am
Good Magic will win the Kentucky Derby
Havent bothered shopping around, I took the $12 yesterday

Has a very good cruising speed. At the 600, still under a tight hold, others off the bit and struggling
Gets to the hometurn with a lap full of horse and the power to go on with it. really extends stride.
Cruising speed plus extended stride and stamina.

Very good value in my opinion
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Barossa Boy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 May 2018 at 2:12pm
Kentucky Derby 2018

Full Horse by Horse preview, picks and analysis here:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1

Best of luck in the run for the roses! 🌹

BB x

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1
BB

Another Jim & Tonic please
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Barossa Boy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 May 2018 at 2:14pm
Let’s try again





Originally posted by Barossa Boy Barossa Boy wrote:

Kentucky Derby 2018

Full Horse by Horse preview, picks and analysis here:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1

Best of luck in the run for the roses! 🌹

BB x

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1
BB

Another Jim & Tonic please
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Barossa Boy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 May 2018 at 2:16pm
Originally posted by Barossa Boy Barossa Boy wrote:

Let’s try again





Originally posted by Barossa Boy Barossa Boy wrote:

Kentucky Derby 2018

Full Horse by Horse preview, picks and analysis here:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1

Best of luck in the run for the roses! 🌹

BB x

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1
www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1
BB

Another Jim & Tonic please
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Barossa Boy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 May 2018 at 2:20pm
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1Kentucky Derby Preview
BB

Another Jim & Tonic please
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 May 2018 at 11:26pm
Originally posted by Barossa Boy Barossa Boy wrote:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1Kentucky Derby Preview
This link doesn't respond.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 May 2018 at 11:27pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 5:50am
Originally posted by Shammy Davis Shammy Davis wrote:

Originally posted by Barossa Boy Barossa Boy wrote:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/05/kentucky-derby-preview.html?m=1Kentucky Derby Preview
This link doesn't respond.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Barossa Boy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 6:00am
Thanks Shammy! Appreciate that. I have no idea what I’m doing...
BB

Another Jim & Tonic please
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 9:22am
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horseshoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 9:54am
Originally posted by horseshoe horseshoe wrote:

Justify with Mike Smith aboard will go very close
Those who know don't tell, Those who tell don't know
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 9:57am
How scary did that race look under those conditions ?


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 10:23am
What was scary about it?
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Red Rancher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 10:34am
What a slop fest. Don't understand why they prefer dirt racing when they have a lovely turf track on the inside.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 11:11am
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

What was scary about it?


LOOKED slippery.

Obviously it wasn't but it looked it.



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 11:17am
What drugs are their horses on?
The leaders went so hard, bog track, and they still kick clear into the straight.
they thrashed the field.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 11:58am
They ran 2 minutes 4 for the 2000m I am not sure they went that hard or finished that fast ?


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 May 2018 at 2:27pm
Bet it was fun there in that crowd and weather. Cry They said the track was the worst its been in something like 100 years  ?  ( Cant recall exactly, but a long time ).  It must have been bad as when we were there in 2013 it was an absolute slop.  156 thousand people all looking for cover between races , and the track was just like slime up over their feet as they passed on the way to the start.  I wonder what the surface is, below all that slop ? 
animals before people.
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