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2018 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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The year Green Moon placed in the Caulfield Cup was 2011....it was the following year in 2012 that Green Moon won the Melbourne Cup. |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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Is this the same Youngstar that raced past KWD last start? KWD looks to be too have come back more as a 2000m horse than a 2400m horse. Anyway this is how I see it. Youngstar and KWD are the 2 best weighted imo. But if Jaameh gets a run then he could well blow them all away. Most of the internationals have to carry more weight than the Aussie horses, and are very capable. But they are used to carrying 60kgs against others with 60kgs. Best Solution gets top weight 57.5kgs with Sound Check and Duretto both weighted to beat him on their last meetings. Duretto especially. Homesman is the best of Lloyds horses. Melham riding and his Caul Stakes run was merely a pipe opener. Youngstar to win. Light weight ,top jockey and peaking for this after her 2nd to Winx. KWD, Homesman, Duretto next in no particular order. Jaameh if he gets a run. |
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15302 |
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Not sure what that has to do with my point, Lloyd as I said ran him in the CC to try qualify for the MC. |
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Williams wanted to Sell Fawner because he wasn’t a Melbourne Cup horse and at the last minute the sale fell through.. they decided to target Caulfield Cup because of that. Lloyd wants Melbourne Cups. His horses will be running on.. |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Im starting to change my mind for the Caulfield Cup.
I had The Cliffsofmoher on top. Something bothers me about the race this year. I think the swoopers are going to be too far back. I keep watching the replay of the 2018 AJC Derby. Ace High is so bloody tough. He and Levendi streeted the field, and Ace High looked like he could do another lap. If Ace High corners anywhere near the lead in the Caulfield Cup, lets say 3 lengths from the lead, you can just see him chiming in at the 400m, lengthening, and getting a gap from the field and being too hard to run down. Those coming from the back, are going to have to run a very very serous race to catch Ace High at the 100m Somewhere within the final furlong, Ace High is going to look the winner. In fact, I simply dont think they will catch him. He will be the winner. At around $13, plus odds boosting, maybe $15/$16, he is the value bet. You just know he is going to keep going.
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11716 |
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Agree with this. I think that was a strong race last week and that was a perfect trial coming out of it. Seen enough internationals over the years put in an eye catcher like that first up in Australia before winning (or at least running very well) at their next. |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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A gentle word of warning too.
Dont be so fast to rule a line through outsiders in the Caulfield Cup. Just some off the top of my head. 1996; ARCTIC SCENT $60 1998 TAUFAN'S MELODY $80. LISA'S GAME ran 2nd at $80 2008: ALL THE GOOD: $40 NOM DU JEU ran 2nd at $40 2009: VIEWED $40 2010: DESCARADO $40. HARRIS TWEED ran 2nd at $40. 2017: BOOM TIME $100 and in between those years, others paid upward of $8, many of them $15 and $20 Dunaden paid well too, as did Railings and Admire Rakti. I think Fawkner was big odds too?? The shorter ones were Sky Heights at $5, Mongolian Khan at $5. Mummify at $5. Northerly at $4 Ethereal was around $8, although $10 was available at the track that day. So the race is more than capable of producing $15 plus winners, and even large quinellas have been achieved. So if you glance at a horse paying over $40, dont be too quick to rule it out. Now having said that, the top 4 in market will run the box first 4. LOL. |
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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The big players have drawn perfectly.
Youngstar in 10. Kings Will Dream in 6. No idea what l'm going to do with this race. 3 days of intense form study to come up with something. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Viewed didnt pay $40..unless you are talking about early markets? On the day I backed Viewed at about $15 |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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A few people on this forum like Jameeh...but its an emergency.
Thoughts on the horse if it was to somehow get a run. ...good chance of winning or placing? |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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Jaameh has shown he needs a fast speed, tick.
He got nosed out by a horse who would have started fav here. He is a dead set 2400+ horse. He is placed well here (the race suits, if it was Flemington he would be about $16 to $21. If he gets the run, and draws well, yes he could finish top four and if you are a top four hope you only need others to have bad luck to win. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Cupper
Foal Joined: 28 Feb 2016 Status: Offline Points: 25 |
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Can't see jameeh getting a run. And if it somehow did it wouldn't be in my numbers. The top 2 I think would've near got their perfect scenario at the barrier draw.KWD should be able to sit reasonably handy and youngstar midfield. Clear top 2 for me.
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Viewed didnt pay $40..unless you are talking about early markets? On the day I backed Viewed at about $15[/QUOTE] Trying to check that one. To my knowledge he paid $40 on the tab, he was overlooked in the market, came from near last, rails run. got the ole google working overtime to find the odds, but cant for some reason.
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Jaameh - does this horse fit the profile of Shocking and Brew? These horses won the Hotham Handicap (Saab Quality/Lexis Stakes) on Derby day and got into the Melbourne Cup field and carried light weights to win (Brew: 49kg and Shocking: 51kg)
He has 50kg in both Cups...probably wont get a run in the Caulfield Cup but Melbourne Cup could get a start...may need to wina race and the Hotham Handicap could be the one. |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15302 |
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Trying to check that one. To my knowledge he paid $40 on the tab, he was overlooked in the market, came from near last, rails run. got the ole google working overtime to find the odds, but cant for some reason. [/QUOTE] I suspect you've got his Cup wins mixed up, he started at $40 in his MC win, he did get the rails run in his CC win however. |
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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I know he paid $41 for the Melbourne Cup win.
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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Okay, first up if you want to know which ones to get rid of, then you can find a runner by runner analysis in the Tip The Card thread in the tipping forum.
Here is the summary. 2018 Caulfield Cup Ratings. 1. No.2 My CliffsofMoher - 87. 2. No.6 Ace High - 87. 3. No.14 Kings Will Dream- 87. 4. No.5 Sound Check - 85. 5. No.1 Best Solution - 85. 6. No.18 Youngstar - 85. Add ins for any scratchings are No.13 Homesman & No.8 Duretto. Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 My CliffsofMoher $10 each way No.5 Sound Check Precedent: No.13 Gallic Cheiftain (he is the one who is way overs). Good luck and lots of success for everyone having a wager! |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Mr Grieves
Champion Joined: 28 Jan 2014 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 929 |
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Nearly all of those horses were less than half the odds you've quoted
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Jaameh better not get a run here. I'm keen to back him in the Lexus. That looks his race.
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Kingy
Champion Joined: 14 Oct 2009 Location: Warrnambool Status: Offline Points: 8310 |
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I bloody hope JAAMEH gets a run. Still spewing about that bloody protest and how quickly it was dismissed
I'm always wary of anything Cosgrave is riding.. even from barrier 17 he could win this with one of his peaches. I'll be taking a few bets into BEST SOLUTION. SOUND CHECK should run a ripper. I'm more keen for SC in the Melbourne Cup as 2400 is too short. He's a ripping stayer imo. I think VENTURA STORM is the best roughie in the race. Has been building very nicely this prep. DURETTO's another I could see winning this, especially drawing the pole. Will need luck of course but the horse does like to be cuddled up and inside of runners from a few races I've seen. Definitely having something on at 20-1. Then there's the locals, IMO KINGS WILL DREAM wont run top 5. 1 run too many imo. on the other hand, ACE HIGH looks like he's dead set primed 100% for his grand final. I'm pretty keen to back him too. The is fine, excellent jockey on and he hasn't had to run in the slop in NSW, which I think is a massive plus. Great race to have a bet on a few and come out on top. Am hoping JAAMEH gets in, otherwise I'm already on and keen to back; ACE HIGH BEST SOLUTION SOUND CHECK VENTURA STORM
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WarriSymbol
Champion Joined: 03 Apr 2010 Status: Offline Points: 3169 |
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How did these Japanese runners even get enough weight to make the field?
16 black type runs between them for ZERO wins. |
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Japanese horses will run well.. they’re far superior..
I like Ace High EW |
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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KWD should get a good run from his barrier. Maybe around 6th on rails or one off. I've looked at Weir's horses in Cup races (including country Cups) over the years and when they've been set specifically for a Cup they normally find around 3 lengths. I expect he will be heavily backed for the race and start a clear favourite. He's been ticking over very nicely and with that 3 lengths I think he'll find I'm pretty confident he will win.
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17253 |
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My only concern regarding Kings Will Dream is the choice of jockey.
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Cupper
Foal Joined: 28 Feb 2016 Status: Offline Points: 25 |
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That's my biggest worry also!! I think with even luck and a decent ride he will be fighting out the finish. Money has come for him since the barrier draw, which I find a little odd as I think youngstars draw is equally good.
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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I think Kings Will Dream and Youngster are way unders.
I can understand Youngstar, at such a lightweight, and went with Winx for a little bit. But I just think they will get too far back. Ace High is going to be super hard to catch at the 200m. Just think he will keep going. and break their hearts.
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Very interesting horse Ace High.
Lazy bugger at trackwork. When revved up in a race, you just see him say, "okay, Ive got this", and you just get the feeling he wants more and more revving, almost like as though the longer he is revved, the more he will eventually give. Kind of like a Northerly. Just doesnt want to be in it, but when decides to, there is plenty in the tank. Ace High has plenty in the tank.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31290 |
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COM v Red Verdon- who wins that h2h? Why?
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Kingy
Champion Joined: 14 Oct 2009 Location: Warrnambool Status: Offline Points: 8310 |
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Gotta agree with the Williams on KWD.
I just don't understand it... He doesn't ride for Weir. It's Yendall, Rawiller, Allen or Lane. I thought it was a very tough run he gave KWD last start. I watched the horse pretty closely and am in the opinion that it should be in the paddock. That last run seemed to take a lot out of him. But I suppose if anyone can get the horse to peak again it's Weiry. I just don't think KWD will run top 5. Massive lay.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45319 |
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Yes, a big call Kingy, particularly as he's never before finished worse than fourth, has won at the distance, and is arguably well in.
Reckon is price is spot on, not that I'm really interested in having a bet in the race.
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