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2017 Thousand Guineas

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SHOVHOG View Drop Down
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    Posted: 10 Oct 2017 at 6:11pm
Alizee has been up a while and whilst impressive in Sydney I don't think the small field and caulfield suit her a great deal. Shoals is primed for this should get a nice sit on booker and this race really sets up well for her. Privately ellerton doesn't think booker will run out the 1600 although she will get her chance. I don't think the $4.60 will survive for shoals and I would expect her to start around $3.50.

Race 6 - 3:15PM Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600 METRES) Times displayed in local time of Race Meeting
Of $500,000.1st $300,000, 2nd $90,000, 3rd $45,000, 4th $22,500, 5th $12,500, 6th $10,000, 7th $10,000, 8th $10,000
Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distributionGROUP 1
Set Weights, Three-Years-Old, Fillies, Apprentices cannot claim.
This race carries a SUPER VOBIS Nominators Bonus of $10,000 for qualified horses.

Track Name: Main Track Type: Turf Track Condition: Good 3

Field Limit: 16 + 4 EM

No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Hcp Rating
1 111x12 SHOALS Anthony Freedman Mark Zahra 4 55.5kg
92
2 425x12411 ALIZEE James Cummings Glyn Schofield 2 55.5kg
102
3 12x231 BOOKER Super Vobis Bonus Scheme Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Dwayne Dunn 8 55.5kg
90
4 1x316x974 PURE SCOT Super Vobis Bonus Scheme David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Ben Melham 3 55.5kg
70
5 52x12x5 ALOISIA (NZ) Aaron Purcell Luke Nolen 1 55.5kg
85
6 3x1113 LEATHER’N’LACE Super Vobis Bonus Scheme Darren Weir Damian Lane 7 55.5kg
74
7 339x52 MINTHA Tony McEvoy Luke Currie 6 55.5kg
66
8 1434 SHE’S SO HIGH Mick Price Damien Oliver 5 55.5kg
68


Edited by Gay3 - 11 Oct 2017 at 11:53am
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2017 at 6:25pm
So why no Catchy?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2017 at 7:00pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

So why no Catchy?


Will be running with the boys SC.
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horlicks View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horlicks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2017 at 7:01pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

So why no Catchy?


Running in the guineas against the boys
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2017 at 7:03pm
Originally posted by horlicks horlicks wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

So why no Catchy?


Running in the guineas against the boys  

Thanks Horlicks.  My bad.  Embarrassed
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scamanda View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2017 at 8:28pm
Originally posted by SHOVHOG SHOVHOG wrote:

Alizee has been up a while and whilst impressive in Sydney I don't think the small field and caulfield suit her a great deal. Shoals is primed for this should get a nice sit on booker and this race really sets up well for her. Privately ellerton doesn't think booker will run out the 1600 although she will get her chance. I don't think the $4.60 will survive for shoals and I would expect her to start around $3.50.

I wish you well. You may have a point.

Alizee is having her 6th run, 1100,1200,1200,1400,1600
Shoals her 3rd run, 1200,1400

Global Glamour 4th run 1200,1400,1600
2nd I Am A Star 4th run, 1100, 1200,1400
3rd Whispering Brook 3rd run, 1200,1400

Stay With Me 4th run, 1200,1200,1400
2nd Jameka 3rd run,1200,1400

Amicus 4th run, 1300,1400, 1400

Guelph 4th run, 1200,1400,1600

Commanding Jewel 5th run, 975,1200,1400,1600

Atlantic Jewel 4th run,1100,1200,1400

Yosei 4th run, 1200,1400,1600

I don't know who the last filly won this race at her 3rd run from a spell.
Jameka couldn't, and she goes OK.

I don't know who the last filly to win at her 6th run was either.
And I'm prepared to give Alizee the benefit of condition over Shoal (who I was on last start and like).

The small field suits Alizee.

Lucky we don't all think the same, otherwise everyone would be on the same horse in every race, but with money back dividends.

I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VPI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2017 at 8:43pm
Think the small field will be no problem for Alizee.

Best 3yo filly we've seen for a while.

Should start well into odds on.
@value_punter
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2017 at 8:43pm
Cummings was aware of it but doesn't think she's looking for a spell. The way she attacked the line last start didn't suggest to me she's a tired filly. Parade might tell.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2017 at 9:48pm
In my opinion First Seal was a better 3yo filly, she could of been a great horse.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 2017 at 7:39am
If you have followed her career and the trainer and jockeys thoughts you will know a sit and sprint won't suit her which is exactly what it will be. We haven't seen a horse go past shoals yet including catchy and I am EXTREMELY confident Alizee won't get past her Saturday. Shoals will out tough her and Alizee will pack it in as soon as it gets tough to pass her. I will return to this thread on Sunday for the post race talk.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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mikey View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mikey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 2017 at 9:20am
Look forward to reviewing your Sunday morning breakfast of "humble pie" Shovhog.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 2017 at 11:46am
Originally posted by SHOVHOG SHOVHOG wrote:

If you have followed her career and the trainer and jockeys thoughts you will know a sit and sprint won't suit her which is exactly what it will be. We haven't seen a horse go past shoals yet including catchy and I am EXTREMELY confident Alizee won't get past her Saturday. Shoals will out tough her and Alizee will pack it in as soon as it gets tough to pass her. I will return to this thread on Sunday for the post race talk.

It makes it hard to chose.
One has had 1 run too many.
One has 1 run too few.

Tactics as you say could tell.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 2017 at 12:30pm
Any reason third up for your grand final is one run to few, scamanda, out of interest?
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 2017 at 12:36pm
I only did a quick check on past runners as I posted earlier Sunline.
Most winners were 4th run into their prep.

I didn't see any winners at 3rd run in but I didn't go back far.
Jameka as I said was place 3rd up.

And I didn't see any winning at their 6th run in.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 2017 at 12:40pm
If it's not another dawdle I wouldn't completely discount both Aloisia and Mintha.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 2017 at 2:10pm
I only had to go back one more year to find one afterall.

Irish Lights 1100,1400 3rd run in. 2009
Gallica 1200,1422,1600,16500,1610 6th run in.2008
Serious Speed 1050,1200,1200,1600,1620 6th run in.2007
Miss Finland 1200,1400,1610 4th run in.2006
Mnemosyne 1000,1200,1400,1500,1600 6th run in.2005
Alinghi 1200,1200,1400,1610 5th run in.2004
Special Harmony 1200,1400,1514,1600,1620 6th run in.2003
Macedon Lady won 2nd run in after a 61 day let up and had 5 runs prior to that.2002
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 2017 at 2:30pm
Cheers for that. I think the history there is interesting but won't have any bearing on whether Alizee or Shoals can win. It's down to their condition and I doubt very much Freedman is sending Shoals in for her grand final a run short, when they've had many months to plan for it. Likewise Alizee should be ok unless James Cummings doesn't know how to spot when they've had enough - albeit horses can make fools of trainers in terms of when enough is enough.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Oct 2017 at 6:37pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

If it's not another dawdle I wouldn't completely discount both Aloisia and Mintha.


RAT Quick look at the figures= ordinary race but Aloisia won with authority ..     Aloft went mad up front in the 2400 race which gave Lord Fandango nice figures for one of these staying races over the carnival.    Hope you stuck with Aloisia.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 8:39am
Well done, 3bm, nice call.
Sunline...simply supreme
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