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2013 Melbourne Cup (5 Nov)

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Scarface View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Scarface Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 1:33pm
Pretty hard to narrow it down, not far off.

Just not entirely convinced on him, and is short enough in the betting
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KangaMick View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KangaMick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 1:52pm
Anyone got a lost of the jockeys currently booked?
2007 JASBTC Champion,2008 JASBTC Runner-Up. NSW Surge-Aussie LFL Champions 2013/14
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scamanda View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 2:01pm
Originally posted by Scarface Scarface wrote:

Pretty hard to narrow it down, not far off.

Just not entirely convinced on him, and is short enough in the betting

Thanks mate. Just looking at him being in with little weight and sure of a start.
Gai's bolter.Embarrassed
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 2:19pm
Originally posted by Scarface Scarface wrote:


Originally posted by questions questions wrote:

i am trying to figure out fiorente. i did not like him in the cox because i felt he was being targeted for this. he is doing everything right this campaign and i just feel that he wont perform. not sure why and no doubt tha tthis is gais best chance to get a win in this race. that is some pressure to handle. 


I thought exact opposite, thought Cox was his target


His Cox Plate run was typical 2 miler.   very tough run all the way and wide most of it. put it to the 3 Y/o but has the acceleration out of him at 2040,. Lost ground when the sprint came but doing great on the Post.      The best trial I have seen from the 2000m races.    I quickly hedged my laying dollars . Drops 4K. . I want him on my side.
I'm practicing safe texts,
I'm using commas.
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Scarface View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Scarface Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 2:59pm
Originally posted by scamanda scamanda wrote:

Originally posted by Scarface Scarface wrote:

Pretty hard to narrow it down, not far off.

Just not entirely convinced on him, and is short enough in the betting

Thanks mate. Just looking at him being in with little weight and sure of a start.
Gai's bolter.Embarrassed

When taking in allowances he's equal on weight with the likes of Fiorente, Hawkspur, Brown Panther and Foreteller
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Scarface View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Scarface Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 3:14pm
Originally posted by KangaMick KangaMick wrote:

Anyone got a lost of the jockeys currently booked?

Hard to know which jockeys will be on which Williams galloper:

Schofield booked as standby for Kigndoms, Let's Make A Deal, Garud, Bass Straight and Araldo.

Nolen would be booked on Ibicenco if he makes the field same with Bossy on Jet Away.

1 Fawkner AU 6G 54.5 -5 $1,650,000 Nick Hall?
2 Dunaden FR 8H 58.5 -1 $2,283,462 Jamie Spencer
3 Green Moon IRE 7H 57.5 -2 $3,800,000 Brett Prebble?
4 Red Cadeaux GB 8G 56.5 -3 $1,774,850 Gerald Mosse
5 Sea Moon IRE 6H 56.5 -3 $378,002 Nash Rawiller?
6 Super Cool AU 4G 54.5 -3.5 $270,000 Michael Rodd
7 Voleuse De Coeurs IRE 5M 54 -4 $205,156 James McDonald
8 Fiorente IRE 6H 55 -4.5 $1,214,172 Damien Oliver
9 Hawkspur AU 4H 53.5 -4.5 $400,000 Jim Cassidy
10 Tres Blue IRE 4H 51 -4.5 $371,800 Tommy Berry
11 Brown Panther GB 6H 55 -4.5 $193,058 Richard Kingscote
12 Foreteller GB 7G 55 -4.5 $70,000 Craig Newitt
13 Ethiopia AU 5G 54.5 -5 $931,500 Rhys McLeod
14 Dandino GB 7H 54.5 -5 $834,439 Ryan Moore
15 Verema FR 5M 53 -5 $372,384 Christophe Lemaire
16 Mourayan IRE 8H 54.5 -5 $328,000 Steven Arnold?
17 Seville GER 6H 54.5 -5 $245,000 Hugh Bowman?
18 Dear Demi AU 4M 51 -5.5 $915,000 Chris Munce
19 Silent Achiever NZ 5M 52.5 -5.5 $817,388 ?
20 Mount Athos IRE 7G 54 -5.5 $318,477 Craig Williams
21 Royal Empire IRE 5H 54 -5.5 $93,259 Kerrin McKevoy
22 Masked Marvel GB 6H 54 -5.5 $49,110 ?
23 Simenon IRE 7G 53.5 -6 $192,450 Richard Hughes
24 Kelinni IRE 6G 53 -6.5 $657,300 ?
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Fiddlesticks View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 3:25pm
Why on Earth would Botti bring Moore out to ride Dandino...??

Confused


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KangaMick View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KangaMick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 3:29pm
Cheers Scarface
2007 JASBTC Champion,2008 JASBTC Runner-Up. NSW Surge-Aussie LFL Champions 2013/14
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chinaguy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 3:42pm
Personally I dont think the local breds outside of Hawkspur, have a chance, none of them. Assuming they run,Super Cool racing way below his best,Forteller, wont stay,Ethiopa, how he ever won a derby beats me, running like a busted camel,Dear Demi,had lots of luck its last two and not able to win, this is way stronger,Silent Achiever, not good enough,Kellinni, making up the numbers.Just my estimations.
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Group 1 Selections View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 3:45pm
I think there are only 2 horses trained in Australia that are capable of winning. Only 1 belongs to team Williams.

(Chinaguy I think Kellini may have come from Europe as well but not certain)
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chinaguy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 3:45pm
Assuming they a lll start I think the winner will come from,Sea Moon, Voleuse De Couers,Fiorente, Tres Blue, Vareema or Mount Athos.
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chinaguy View Drop Down
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*all start
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chinaguy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 3:47pm
Originally posted by Group 1 Selections Group 1 Selections wrote:

I think there are only 2 horses trained in Australia that are capable of winning. Only 1 belongs to team Williams.

(Chinaguy I think Kellini may have come from Europe as well but not certain)
Oh sorry yes I think he did.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 3:48pm
Originally posted by chinaguy chinaguy wrote:

Assuming they a lll start I think the winner will come from,Sea Moon, Voleuse De Couers,Fiorente, Tres Blue, Vareema or Mount Athos.


For better or worse my 5 winning chances are in your 6
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chinaguy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 3:50pm
I will also discount international runners with international jockeys on, their record in the race is very poor, most of them butcher their rides,Mount Athos last year was the best run in the race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LR80 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:15pm
How is Fiorente so short after being ridden upside down? I just don't get those ludicrous odds. Even if he was to win, he's far too short to find out
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:20pm
Originally posted by Saint Pebba Saint Pebba wrote:

I may be wrong here but I don't think many horses(if any at all) have won the Melbourne cup after losing in their first attempt.

A few have won more than once but history tells me if you don't win at your first attempt then you wont ever win.


Ummm, doesnt Phar Lap ring a bell??

Phar Lap ran 3rd in the 1929 Melbourne Cup, in which he started favourite. It was his first attempt at the Cup.
One year later in 1930, he romped the Cup in as the overwhelming national favourite.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:22pm
Originally posted by scamanda scamanda wrote:

Originally posted by Scarface Scarface wrote:

Pretty hard to narrow it down, not far off.

Just not entirely convinced on him, and is short enough in the betting

Thanks mate. Just looking at him being in with little weight and sure of a start.
Gai's bolter.Embarrassed

Scamanda, I think he is this year's Fiorente ... although with Gai, all the fanfare is with Fiorente.

Last year it was all about Glencadam Gold, CCup favourite taking the spot light. Fiorente flew under the radar ... this guy is doing the same to a degree.

When you dissect his form, had he run, he likely would have been about 10/1 and finished top 5 in the Arc ... gets in with 51 as a "three and a half year old" ... which for a horse that from all report is a strong mature animal, and has been running over 2400 and 2500 last 4 starts, seems very attractive.
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chinaguy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:24pm
Originally posted by LR80 LR80 wrote:

How is Fiorente so short after being ridden upside down? I just don't get those ludicrous odds. Even if he was to win, he's far too short to find out

Geez first you say IADD is basically no good then he wins you jump on him, and he gets smashed. Fiorente was the run of the race by far, and you want to jump off him, he may not win, but hell I would be bloody happy if I owned him right now, he is in the peak of his form, and ready to run the race of his life.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Saint Pebba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:24pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

Originally posted by Saint Pebba Saint Pebba wrote:

I may be wrong here but I don't think many horses(if any at all) have won the Melbourne cup after losing in their first attempt.

A few have won more than once but history tells me if you don't win at your first attempt then you wont ever win.


Ummm, doesnt Phar Lap ring a bell??

Phar Lap ran 3rd in the 1929 Melbourne Cup, in which he started favourite. It was his first attempt at the Cup.
One year later in 1930, he romped the Cup in as the overwhelming national favourite.
 
How many years ago was this??? Has it happened since the foreign raiders started coming out in large numbers???
 
Forgive me for not factoring in what happened in 1929/1930 into my predictions for 2013.....
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chinaguy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:25pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

Originally posted by Saint Pebba Saint Pebba wrote:

I may be wrong here but I don't think many horses(if any at all) have won the Melbourne cup after losing in their first attempt.

A few have won more than once but history tells me if you don't win at your first attempt then you wont ever win.


Ummm, doesnt Phar Lap ring a bell??

Phar Lap ran 3rd in the 1929 Melbourne Cup, in which he started favourite. It was his first attempt at the Cup.
One year later in 1930, he romped the Cup in as the overwhelming national favourite.
Geez 1930, thats a hell of a long time ago... history says it is rarely done...
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Empire Rose did it.
Brew did it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Saint Pebba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:30pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Empire Rose did it.
Brew did it.
 
So that is 3 in 84 years. Anyone got any more???
 
Also, how many have tried more than once over that time and failed on each occasion??? I would be confident it would be nearly 10 times this amount.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:31pm
Nobody ever remembers Hyperno.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chinaguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:34pm
I hope they can I think one who ran in it last year can win it this year Mount Athos, although I worry about the jockey, he is hit and miss at the mo.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Kingy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:34pm
Everyone should make sure they have a little on whatever Nick Hall is riding, reckon it could be Seville?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FrankDrebin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:41pm
Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:

Originally posted by FrankDrebin FrankDrebin wrote:

The only way i see simenon winning is if he leads and puts on a very sharp pace, as he won't have distance concerns. It didn't work for Septimus but Simenon is carrying less. If he is still with the pack at the turn i give him zero chance.


Not sure I've seen him ever race like and be competitive, what makes you think he has the tactical pace to be a front runner in a cup and kick off the front...? All his good wins have come from just off the leaders and he has darted to the front showing a fair turn off foot.




I don't. There is no likely way this race pans out that i can see Simenon winning.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:50pm
Originally posted by Saint Pebba Saint Pebba wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Empire Rose did it.
Brew did it.



 

So that is 3 in 84 years. Anyone got any more???

 

Also, how many have tried more than once over that time and failed on each occasion??? I would be confident it would be nearly 10 times this amount.


Gold And Black is another. I'm sure there are more but I don't have a list of all the cup fields. Regardless, you didn't think any horse had done it and we're up to 4 at least who have.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:50pm
Originally posted by Saint Pebba Saint Pebba wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Empire Rose did it.
Brew did it.



 

So that is 3 in 84 years. Anyone got any more???

 

Also, how many have tried more than once over that time and failed on each occasion??? I would be confident it would be nearly 10 times this amount.



Surely you should be looking at horses that have run well on consecutive years, not just those that loset first time and came back.
Americain should have gone back to back. Obviously the Diva. I don't believe you get one shot at the cup anymore, especially with compressed weights.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2013 at 4:54pm
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Originally posted by Saint Pebba Saint Pebba wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Empire Rose did it.
Brew did it.



 

So that is 3 in 84 years. Anyone got any more???

 

Also, how many have tried more than once over that time and failed on each occasion??? I would be confident it would be nearly 10 times this amount.



Surely you should be looking at horses that have run well on consecutive years, not just those that loset first time and came back.
Americain should have gone back to back. Obviously the Diva. I don't believe you get one shot at the cup anymore, especially with compressed weights.

Yes- how much did Think Big's weight rise from Cup 1 to 2? It was around 10kg wasn't it? You'd need to win 5 Melbourne Cups to get that these days.Wink
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