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2011 Melbourne Cup

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2011 at 11:05pm
Any chance of OTI not accepting with Manighar or Drunken Sailor if it looks like Bauer might miss out by 1 or 2 spots?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OneNightOnly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2011 at 11:23pm
Jukebox Jury tends to be able to mix it with the current second best in Europe at WFA as a general rule. The best will almost always find him out. His official flat rating of 116 confirms that. The two best races he's even been in ( Sheema Classic/Coronation Cup ) have resulted in sound defeats.

Taking the result of the Irish St Leger on face value would be unwise. Run on a very wet track. The Gr2 win  in the Prix Kergolay at his previous start was the superior Jukebox Jury performance for mine.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Racing Carrot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2011 at 11:43pm
Originally posted by OneNightOnly OneNightOnly wrote:

Right now it's looking like about the strongest European 3200m race in years

No it isn't. A stronger race was run last Saturday at Ascot. Most of these are UK handicappers not WFA horses.

 
You mean that 10 horse G3 at Ascot?  Ah no.
 
You seem to use "handicappers" fairly negatively.  Handicappers like Vintage Crop, Give The Slip, Media Puzzle, Purple Moon, All The Good, Bauer have come down and run 1st or 2nd in Melbourne/Caulfield Cups.   Many supposedly better G1 horses used to small fields on different tracks have failed, often when heavily backed.     It's often made out like the group 1-2 3200-4000m horses in Europe are lengths in front of the horses going around in Ebors etc.  Results simply don't support it. 
 
Even the race you cite last week had the two G1/G2 performed stayers in Fame And Glory and Opinion Poll finishing 1.3 lengths and a nose respectively in front of a horse who'd just run 2nd in a Cesarewitch.
 
The 4th horse beaten 1.5 lengths, had been beaten by Bauer two starts back and three starts back unplaced in the Ebor, with varying opinions of how unlucky it was.
 
This is aside from the obvious-Opinion Poll was lucky to hold out Lost In the Moment and Fox Hunt at Goodwood over this trip, and there aren't exactly people jumping out of trees to back those two for the Melbourne Cup at the mo.
 
And you want to claim this 10 horse field is stronger than the likely 24 horse Melbourne Cup field? 
 
 
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lordy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 12:11am
Have a look at the top 24 in the current market. The 6 horses in italics are the southern hemisphere ones.  Of those only Shewan is Aust bred with the others being NZers.  Don't think I've seen anything like it. 

AMERICAIN 7.5
LUCAS CRANACH 9
DUNADEN 10
GREEN MOON 15
LION TAMER 15
SHAMROCKER 17
JUKEBOX JURY 21
BAUER 21
MIDAS TOUCH 21
TULLAMORE 26
MANIGHAR 26
FOX HUNT 26
RED CADEAUX 26
MODUN 26
MOURAYAN 26
UNUSUAL SUSPECT 26
MOYENNE CORNICHE 26
ILLO 31
LOST IN THE MOMENT 31
DRUNKEN SAILOR 31
AT FIRST SIGHT 31
DESCARADO 31
SHEWAN 31
PRECEDENCE 41
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OneNightOnly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 12:41am
You seem to use "handicappers" fairly negatively

Nope it's just a call it as you see it rating. You conclude with a weight of numbers claim versus quality. That's nothing new when it comes to discussions about European racing.

You see it how you want, my opinion is clear. You clearly said that "right now it's looking like the strongest European 3200m race for years". I clearly disagreed and always will. I will continue to contend that any "best" field involving current horses would involve Opinion Poll and Fame And Glory. Plenty would agree. Perhaps things look a lot different from 20,000 miles away. Fame And Glory is rated officially at 120 by the International Federation. That still four pounds clearly makes him the highest rated of European 3200m winners . Good luck.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OneNightOnly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 12:43am
Edit Button -

That clearly makes him the highest rated of European 3200m winners.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tassam Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 1:17am
thank you OneNightOnly, much appreciated
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Racing Carrot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 1:37am
Originally posted by OneNightOnly OneNightOnly wrote:

You seem to use "handicappers" fairly negatively

Nope it's just a call it as you see it rating. You conclude with a weight of numbers claim versus quality. That's nothing new when it comes to discussions about European racing.

You see it how you want, my opinion is clear. You clearly said that "right now it's looking like the strongest European 3200m race for years". I clearly disagreed and always will. I will continue to contend that any "best" field involving current horses would involve Opinion Poll and Fame And Glory. Plenty would agree. Perhaps things look a lot different from 20,000 miles away. Fame And Glory is rated officially at 120 by the International Federation. That still four pounds clearly makes him the highest rated of European 3200m winners . Good luck.  
 
His 120 rating is the same as Durban Thunder-the horse Lucas Cranach was bounding past by lengths in the much posted German 2400m win.  So guess we'll have to add some salt to it.
 
Since they stepped him past 2400m he's had two close wins in listed races in fields of 5 and 8, one good win over 4000m where lining up the form becomes fairly difficult due to the rarity of the distance, then two losses in fields of 7 and 6, and now the 1.2 length win in a 10 horse field at the weekend, where over 3200m he was all out to beat Opinion Poll/a horse who couldn't win a Cesarewitch/and a horse who ran unplaced in the Ebor.   
 
The Ebor winner and Bauer are both struggling to get a run in the Melbourne Cup, whereas a horse who couldn't place in the Ebor and then got beaten by Bauer, somehow managed to be 1.5 lengths from winning the race you cited on Saturday.  It really doesn't have much of a case for being the strongest European 3200m race in recent years.
 
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FFB1975 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 7:53am
At First Sight a massive drifter on Betfair, out from 36 to 50's since yesterday morning. You still confident of him running Andy? Perhaps when he hits Bendigo he may come back in. Still hopeful given he's my best return though not by much over Dunaden who now, safe to say, is where my focus is.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 8:41am
Can we please change the title of this thread to "European Cup" Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tassam Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 9:29am
You can take Descarado out of the MC now. All we know is that he's not in the CP, but very hard to see him running in a MC with no run until possibly the Mackinnon, if at all...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hatch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 9:42am
I  think Bauer  should be put into the field   no matter what ,   Efficient was put into the Cox plate field  even though he hadnt run a place for a couple of years  .     Bauer   very narrowly beaten in a Melbourne Cup   and back agaijn in good form ,   put him in ,  a very worthy  inclusion.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andynr123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 9:49am
Except for the fact you can't include horses in the Melb Cup hatch. Only the Cox Plate.

MC is governed by the order of entry.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hatch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 9:52am
Why  one rule for one and not the other ?     Racing Victoria governs the rules of racing ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tyson71 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 9:58am
Any word on Jukebox Jury, How has he settled in etc?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tassam Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 10:09am
Tyson, he had a trot around Weribee this morning, didn't do much, just had a look. Dont know how his condition is though
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hoffy95 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 10:14am
Bauer not racing again before the MC so needs a bit of luck from here to get a start. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FFB1975 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 10:19am
What on earth is the go with AFS? $50's available an hour ago ($65 lay), now $20 and $30.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andynr123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 10:21am
Originally posted by hatch hatch wrote:

Why  one rule for one and not the other ?     Racing Victoria governs the rules of racing ?


Melbourne Cup is a handicap and has an order of entry.

Cox Plate doesn't have an order of entry.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 10:30am
Originally posted by hatch hatch wrote:

Why  one rule for one and not the other ?     Racing Victoria governs the rules of racing ?


''  there is none so great as the racing administrators in the stand  ''
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andynr123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 10:36am
Descarado's definitely out but Hawk Island's definitely running.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andynr123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 11:10am
Confirmed, Dunaden got 0.5kg.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Blaster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 11:30am
Nothing that we didn't no yesterday  Thumbs Up
He's Not Heavy,It's My Brother
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andynr123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 11:31am
Hence why I said confirmed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andynr123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 2:43pm
The Godolphin horses - Lost in the Moment and Modun - are only going to do one piece of work before they run! Incredible...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andynr123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 2:47pm
1. Jukebox Jury
2. Americain
Descarado
3. Lion Tamer
4. Shamrocker
5. Midas Touch
6. Mighty High
7. Dunaden
Absolutely
(gone for a spell)
8. Manighar
Dreamaway
(aiming at other races)
9. Glass Harmonium (query)
10. Unusual Suspect
11. Drunken Sailor
Linton (unlikely runner)
12. Precedence
13. Mourayan (query)
Alcopop
(out for spring)
Herculian Prince
(gone for a spell)
14. Red Cadeaux
15. Fox Hunt
16. Lucas Cranach
17. Hawk Island
Pinker Pinker
(aimed at other races)
Illustrious Blue
(not going well enough)
18. Lost In The Moment
19. Illo
20. Modun
21. At First Sight (query)
Stand to Gain
(hasn’t come up and likely to spell)
22. Booming
23. Older Than Time (query)
Tactic
24. Sahara Sun (query)
==============

Tullamore
The Verminator
December Draw
Praecido

Master O’Reilly
Moyenne Corniche
Saptapadi
Bauer
Exceptionally
Shewan
Ironstein
Lamasery
Niwot
Above Average
Hissing Sid
Green Moon
Spechenka
Showcause

For the full order of entry, click here: http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/asset/cms/SRC%202011/2011%20Emirates%20Melbourne%20Cup%20Elimination%20Order%20171011.pdf

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote racinglover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 2:51pm
Is Hawk Island confirmed?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 2:52pm
You would expect a few more of that to drop out. 50/50 with Bauer I would say. But then I guess the Saab winner has to come in doesn't it? Bugger, maybe 40/60.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andynr123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 2:55pm
Herculian Prince and Stand to Gain definitely gone for spells.

No word about Illustrious Blue, what happens if they accept with him? Surely he'd be balloted?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fine Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2011 at 3:02pm
I bet they won't go on with Glass Harmonium after the Plate. Just a feeling. 
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